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Climate change projections over the Mediterranean basin point toward an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events that will directly impact ecosystems resilience. In this study, we evaluated future trends of soil loss in forestland in Catalonia (NE Spain) due to fires and vegetation dynamics, considering the potential future impacts of co‐occurring extreme fire and rainfall events, and assessing how fire suppression can contribute to soil erosion mitigation. The process‐based MEDFIRE model was used to simulate changes in forestland due to climate and fires between 2011 and 2050 under six different future scenarios that resulted from the combination of two climatic scenarios and three fire management policies. Annual projections on landscape changes were used to estimate soil loss using the Universal Soil Loss Equation. Projected annual soil losses for forested land in Catalonia ranged between 15 and 16 tons/ha, with scenarios simulating current levels of fire suppression projecting around −5% soil loss than those assuming more relaxed suppression strategies. On average, fires explained 12–16% of annual soil loss in the region, but in fire‐severe years, they explained up to 90% of the total annual soil loss. Projected mean total soil loss in years where extreme rainfall and fire meet was 150% higher than in years where both events were not contemporary. The estimated annual probability that the two extreme impacts will co‐occur in the future ranged between 0.09 and 0.11 between scenarios. Our results highlight the importance of landscape and fire management in minimizing soil loss and its potential impacts for ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling landscape dynamics is crucial for assessing the potential effectiveness of upgraded land management. In fire-prone regions, wildfires play a critical role in shaping landscapes, and land-use and fire suppression policies strongly influence landscape patterns and fire regimes. In this paper, we introduce REMAINS, a spatially explicit process-based model, implemented as a user-friendly R package. REMAINS enables the simulation of fire-landscape dynamics under different land-use and fire management scenarios. The package incorporates the spatial interaction of fire-related processes including fire ignition, spread and extinction, as well as vegetation dynamics such as including natural succession and post-fire regeneration. With a comprehensive set of functions, REMAINS allows for the simulation of two fire-suppression strategies, prescribed fire approaches, and land-use policy scenarios. Furthermore, REMAINS facilitates the assessment of the impacts of such management options on fire regime attributes. This model enhances capacity building beyond academia and supports policy- and decision-making process. • We introduce REMAINS: a fire-landscape model implemented as R package. • The package reproduces spatial interactions between fire-related processes and vegetation dynamics. • REMAINS allows simulating unplanned and planned fire under land-use policies. • REMAINS allows simulating integrated wildfire management scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We investigate first whether fire regimes resulting from the combination of climate change and fire-fighting policy may affect species distributions in Mediterranean landscapes, and second to what extent distributional dynamics may be constrained by the spatial legacy of historical land use. Location Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). Methods We modelled the distributional responses of 64 forest and open-habitat bird species to nine fire-regime scenarios, defined by combining different levels of climate change and fire suppression efficiency. A fire-succession model was used to stochastically simulate land-cover changes between 2000 and 2050 under these scenarios. We used species distribution models to predict habitat suitability and occupancy dynamics under either no dispersal or full dispersal assumptions. Results Under many simulated scenarios, the succession from shrubland to forest dominated over the creation of new low-vegetation areas derived from wildfires. Consequently, open-habitat specialists were the group most affected by losses of suitable habitat. Fire regimes obtained under scenarios including high fire suppression efficiency resulted in a larger number of bird species experiencing reductions in their distribution area. Main conclusions Anthropogenic factors, such as historical land-use change and fire suppression, can drive regional distribution dynamics in directions opposite to those expected from climatic trends. This raises the question of what drivers and interactions should be given priority in the prediction of biodiversity responses to global change at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transnational policy coordination needed in transboundary European mountains. • Farmland protection would reduce fire hazard and ensure biodiversity conservation. • Fire-smart forest conversion would be beneficial for climate regulation services. • Integrating land-use and fire-smart management would improve decision-making. The environmental and socio-economic impacts of wildfires are foreseen to increase across southern Europe over the next decades regardless of increasing resources allocated for fire suppression. This study aims to identify fire-smart management strategies that promote wildfire hazard reduction, climate regulation ecosystem service and biodiversity conservation. Here we simulate fire-landscape dynamics, carbon sequestration and species distribution (116 vertebrates) in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés (NW Iberia). We envisage 11 scenarios resulting from different management strategies following four storylines: Business-as-usual (BAU), expansion of High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf), Fire-Smart forest management, and HNVf plus Fire-Smart. Fire-landscape simulations reveal an increase of up to 25% of annual burned area. HNVf areas may counterbalance this increasing fire impact, especially when combined with fire-smart strategies (reductions of up to 50% between 2031 and 2050). The Fire-Smart and BAU scenarios attain the highest estimates for total carbon sequestered. A decrease in habitat suitability (around 18%) since 1990 is predicted for species of conservation concern under the BAU scenario, while HNVf would support the best outcomes in terms of conservation. Our study highlights the benefits of integrating fire hazard control, ecosystem service supply and biodiversity conservation to inform better decision-making in mountain landscapes of Southern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]