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The commercially important Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), a large migratory fish, has experienced notable recovery aided by accurate resource assessment and effective fisheries management efforts. Traditionally, this species has been perceived as consisting of eastern and western populations, spawning respectively in the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, with mixing occurring throughout the Atlantic. However, recent studies have challenged this assumption by revealing weak genetic differentiation and identifying a previously unknown spawning ground in the Slope Sea used by Atlantic bluefin tuna of uncertain origin. To further understand the current and past population structure and connectivity of Atlantic bluefin tuna, we have assembled a unique dataset including thousands of genome‐wide single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 500 larvae, young of the year and spawning adult samples covering the three spawning grounds and including individuals of other Thunnus species. Our analyses support two weakly differentiated but demographically connected ancestral populations that interbreed in the Slope Sea. Moreover, we also identified signatures of introgression from albacore (Thunnus alalunga) into the Atlantic bluefin tuna genome, exhibiting varied frequencies across spawning areas, indicating strong gene flow from the Mediterranean Sea towards the Slope Sea. We hypothesize that the observed genetic differentiation may be attributed to increased gene flow caused by a recent intensification of westward migration by the eastern population, which could have implications for the genetic diversity and conservation of western populations. Future conservation efforts should consider these findings to address potential genetic homogenization in the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the relationship between both commercial and scientific spatial fisheries data and a new satellite‐based estimate of potential fish production (Ocean Productivity available to Fish, OPFish) in the European Seas. To construct OPFish, we used productivity frontal features derived from chlorophyll‐a horizontal gradients, which characterize 10%–20% of the global phytoplankton production that effectively fuels higher trophic levels. OPFish is relatively consistent with the spatial distribution of both pelagic and demersal fish landings and catches per unit of effort (LPUEs and CPUEs, respectively). An index of harvest relative to ocean productivity (HP index) is calculated by dividing these LPUEs or CPUEs with OPFish. The HP index reflects the intensity of fishing by gear type with regard to local fish production. Low HP levels indicate lower LPUEs or CPUEs than expected from oceanic production, suggesting over‐exploitation, while high HP levels imply more sustainable fishing. HP allows comparing the production‐dependent suitability of local fishing intensities. Our results from bottom trawl data highlight that over‐exploitation of demersal species from the shelves is twice as high in the Mediterranean Sea than in the North‐East Atlantic. The estimate of HP index by dominant pelagic and demersal gears suggests that midwater and bottom otter trawls are associated with the lowest and highest overfishing, respectively. The contrasts of fishing intensity at local scales captured by the HP index suggest that accounting for the local potential fish production can promote fisheries sustainability in the context of ecosystem‐based fisheries management as required by international marine policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: "fisheries management," "ecosystem," "ocean climate," and "global context and governance" for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated for each of the four single perspectives before being integrated into multiple‐perspective scenarios. Selected scenarios are then developed into storylines. Focusing on individual perspectives until near the end allows actors with diverse cultures, interests and horizons to confront their own notions of the future. We illustrate the method with the exploration of the futures of the Barents Sea MSES by 2050. We emphasize the following lessons learned: first, many actors are not familiar with scenario building and attention must be paid to explaining the purpose, methodology, and benefits of scenarios exercises. Second, although the Barents Sea MSES is relatively well understood, uncertainties about its future are significant. Third, it is important to focus on unlikely events. Fourth, all perspectives should be treated equally. Fifth, as MSES are continuously changing, we can only be prepared for future changes if we collectively keep preparing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between spawning fish abundance and the number of offspring, the so-called stock-recruitment relationship, is crucial for fisheries management and conservation measures. Using the most comprehensive data set ever assembled, we quantify this relationship for 211 fish stocks worldwide, revealing a global pattern with a pervasive asymptotic shape that shows increasing recruitment reaching an upper limit for values around half to two-thirds of parental biomass. This corroborates previous theoretical and modeling results. However, parental biomass is a predictor for only 5% to 15% of the variance in recruitment, demonstrating the weak predictive power of the stock-recruitment relationship in marine fish populations. Thus, there is a need to move rapidly toward models that integrate environmental conditions and species interactions in fisheries stock assessment and management, as suggested by Johan Hjort 100 years ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fish stock fluctuations are affected by two potentially confounding forces: the removal of individuals by fisheries and climatic variations affecting the productivity of fish populations. Disentangling the relative importance of these forces has thus been a question of primary importance for fisheries management and conservation. Through the analysis of long-term time-series for 27 fish stocks from the Northeast Atlantic, the present study shows that the sign and intensity of the effect of temperature on biomass are dependent on the geographical location: the stocks located at the southernmost and northernmost latitudes of our study displayed stronger associations with temperature than the stocks located in the middle range of latitudes. As a consequence, the investigation of the combined effects of exploitation and the environment revealed that the stocks at the northern/southern boundaries of the spatial extent of the species were more prone to combined effects. The interplay between geographic location, climate and exploitation thus plays a significant role in fish stock productivity, which is generally ignored during assessment, thus affecting management procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The intrinsic population growth rate (r) of the surplus production function used in the biomass dynamic model and the steepness (h) of the stock-recruitment relationship used in age-structured population dynamics models are two key parameters in fish stock assessment. There is generally insufficient information in the data to estimate these parameters that thus have to be constrained. We developed methods to directly estimate the probability distributions of r and h for the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus, Scombridae), using all available biological and ecological information. We examined the existing literature to define appropriate probability distributions of key life history parameters associated with intrinsic growth rate and steepness, paying particular attention to the natural mortality for early life history stages. The estimated probability distribution of the population intrinsic growth rate was weakly informative, with an estimated mean r = 0.77 (60.53) and an interquartile range of (0.34, 1.12). The estimated distribution of h was more informative, but also strongly asymmetric with an estimated mean h = 0.89 (±0.20) and a median of 0.99. We note that these two key demographic parameters strongly depend on the distribution of early life history mortality rate (M0), which is known to exhibit high year-to-year variations. This variability results in a widely spread distribution of M0 that affects the distribution of the intrinsic population growth rate and further makes the spawning stock biomass an inadequate proxy to predict recruitment levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Evidence has accumulated that climate variability influences the state and functioning of marine ecosystems. At the same time increasing pressure from exploitation and other human activities has been shown to impact exploited and non-exploited species and potentially modify ecosystem structure. There has been a tendency among marine scientists to pose the question as a dichotomy, i.e., whether (1) “natural” climate variability or (2) fishery exploitation bears the primary responsibility for population declines in fish populations and the associated ecosystem changes. However, effects of both climate and exploitation are probably substantially involved in most cases. More importantly, climate and exploitation interact in their effects, such that climate may cause failure in a fishery management scheme but that fishery exploitation may also disrupt the ability of a resource population to withstand, or adjust to, climate changes. Here, we review how exploitation, by altering the structure of populations and ecosystems, can modify their ability to respond to climate. The demographic effects of fishing (removal of large-old individuals) can have substantial consequences on the capacity of populations to buffer climate variability through various pathways (direct demographic effects, effects on migration, parental effects). In a similar way, selection of population sub-units within meta-populations may also lead to a reduction in the capacity of populations to withstand climate variability and change. At the ecosystem level, reduced complexity by elimination of species, such as might occur by fishing, may be destabilizing and could lead to reduced resilience to perturbations. Differential exploitation of marine resources could also promote increased turnover rates in marine ecosystems, which would exacerbate the effects of environmental changes. Overall (and despite the specificities of local situations) reduction in marine diversity at the individual, population and ecosystem levels will likely lead to a reduction in the resilience and an increase in the response of populations and ecosystems to future climate variability and change. Future management schemes will have to consider the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems in a wider sense in order to maximise the ability of marine fauna to adapt to future climates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The use of genetic, biochemical and electronic markers in population biology and ecology has been growing tremendously during the last two decades. The first part of this paper aims at reviewing the main principles and advances of these individual markers through a few key applications on exploited marine fish populations. The second part is more prospective and investigates some possibilities that could arise in the near future through: (i) the development of new markers, (ii) the combination of different markers and (iii) the combination of quantitative approaches -whether classical or new- with individual markers. It is finally stressed how crucial individual markers will be to unravel the biocomplexity of wild fish populations and the key role they should play in the implementation of the ecosystem approach to fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this study, we examine the performances of current stock assessment methods with respect to their ability to (i) provide estimates of maximum sustainable yield (MSY), FMSY, and BMSY and (ii) assess stock status and exploitation level relative to MSY targets. The robustness of the current International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) management strategy is then evaluated with respect to uncertainty about the true population dynamics and contrasted with a simpler management strategy based solely on a size limit. Reference points are more robust to dynamic uncertainty than the estimates of absolute values and trends in F and spawning stock biomass. However, their performances depend on the underlying dynamics (they perform better when fluctuations come from changes in the carrying capacity than migration) and on when they are implemented relative to the intrinsic cycle of the population. Reference points based on F were less biased and more precise than those based on biomass and (or) yield. Although F0.1 appeared to be the best proxy for FMSY, it cannot indicate past and current levels of exploitation relative to FMSY when there is uncertainty about the dynamics. Finally, the F0.1 management strategy of ICCAT performed only slightly better than a simpler strategy based on size limit and led to lower catch levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spectacular long-term cycles (around 110 years), independent of human exploitation, have been seen in historical catches of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). Previous studies indicated that such variations could have been generated by contrasting but equally plausible dynamic processes, i.e., changes in carrying capacity or migration. A simulation framework was therefore used to test whether the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna stock assessment model, i.e., a virtual population analysis (VPA), can capture such dynamics. The main outcome is that knowledge of the underlying process is crucial, because distinct hypotheses lead to different population dynamics and contrasting performances of the stock assessment model. The VPA is indeed able to reconstruct accurately the historical stock parameters under the carrying-capacity hypothesis, but not under the migratory hypothesis, for which there is often strong bias (up to 500%) in absolute values and in trends of spawning stock biomass and F. Furthermore, it was shown that (i) different phases between exploitation and long-term cycle can induce contrasting terminal F for a same effort and (ii) that there was considerable confounding between the dynamics and increasing effort (as currently seen). We conclude that it is difficult to infer the actual dynamics on the basis of commercial catch data and that novel fishery-independent observation is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the exploitation of the Atlantic bluefin tuna in the Mediterranean Sea. Increase in the efficiency of long-established fisheries; Details on the situation of the eastern stock of bluefin tuna; Assessment and management of eastern stock,.

Long-term time-series of bluefin tuna catches from ancestral Mediterranean and Atlantic trap fisheries are presented and analysed. The trap is a passive gear, little modified for centuries, that catches bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus during their annual spawning migration. These features, together with preliminary analyses, lead us to suggest that long-term fluctuations in trap catches could reflect those in true abundance if they vary in the same manner all around the western Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic. To test this hypothesis, we investigated 54 time-series more than 20 years long (the longest ones spanning four centuries) of trap catches along the western Mediterranean coasts of Italy, Sicily, Sardinia, Tunisia, Spain, and Morocco, and the adjacent Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. Trends and cycles were identified using Eigen Vector Filtering and spectral analysis, and the synchrony between short- and long-term fluctuations in trap catches was studied with the modified correlogram of Koenig and Knops. The magnitude of fluctuations in trap catches is large, periods of great abundance being up to seven times bigger than those when abundance was low. More interesting was the occurrence of 100-year-long periodic fluctuations as well as 20-year cycles. These medium- to long-term fluctuations, representing more than 50% of the total variability in the time-series, were synchronous all around the western Mediterranean and adjacent North Atlantic. In contrast, short-term variability was synchronous at a local scale only. It is argued that long-term fluctuations in trap catches could be considered as a proxy for those of true abundance, and a synthetic time-series has been computed to depict them. Biological and ecological processes that could cause such long-term fluctuations are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]