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Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (NSSH, Clupea harengus) is a key species in the food‐web and for fisheries in the north‐east Atlantic. NSSH has been the focus of many ecological and fisheries studies over decades and several hypotheses have been put forward to explain variations in its recruitment. We conducted an extensive literature review of the processes that have been hypothesized to control recruitment at age‐2 years. From this review, we constructed a conceptual model to represent how these processes are inter‐connected. We then evaluated several of these hypothesized processes using quantile regression modelling and the most recent available data series as input. Most of the hypotheses were not supported by our analyses. Only two hypotheses were supported: the top‐down control of herring larval stage by Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) and the positive effect of temperature on recruitment. For the latter the interpretation of the results is nevertheless ambiguous when the latest years (1998–2018) of observations are included, as the correlation then changes from positive to negative. Furthermore, when retesting the hypotheses on age‐2 years estimates, we observe a benefitting effect of a consistent strong forcing of the Norwegian Coastal Current and a possible positive effect of the NSSH spawning stock on recruitment. How much these hypotheses can be used to make predictions about future recruitment of herring remains to be tested but based on our results, the relatively short time series available and the dispersion of the observations around the regression models, we can anticipate that such predictions would have limited use for the purpose of fisheries assessment and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many marine species exhibit poleward migrations following climate change. The Barents Sea, a doorstep to the fast‐warming Arctic, is experiencing large scale changes in its environment and its communities. Tracking and anticipating changes for management and conservation purposes at the scale of the ecosystem necessitate quantitative knowledge on individual species distribution drivers. This paper aims at identifying the factors controlling demersal habitats in the Barents Sea, investigating for which species we can predict current and future habitats and inferring those most likely to respond to climate change. We used non‐linear quantile regressions (QGAM) to model the upper quantile of the biomass response of 33 fish species to 10 environmental gradients and revealed three environmental niche typologies. Four main predictors seem to be limiting species habitat: bottom and surface temperature, salinity, and depth. We highlighted three cases of present and future habitat predictability: (a) Habitats of widespread species are not likely to be limited by the existing conditions within the Barents Sea. (b) Habitats limited by a single factor are predictable and could shift if impacted by climate change. If the factor is depth, the habitat may stagnate or shrink if the environment becomes unsuitable. (c) Habitats limited by several factors are also predictable but need to be predicted from QGAM applied on projected environmental maps. These modeled suitable habitats can serve as input to species distribution forecasts and end‐to‐end models, and inform fisheries and conservation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts easily grasped by all actors, because they are explicit about knowns and unknowns and because the interpretation of their results is simple without being prescriptive, they can be used in a context of participatory management. We propose that, three decades after the emergence of chaos theories, CaN can be a practical step to reconcile scientists and non-scientists around the modelling of structurally and dynamically complex natural systems, and significantly contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: "fisheries management," "ecosystem," "ocean climate," and "global context and governance" for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated for each of the four single perspectives before being integrated into multiple‐perspective scenarios. Selected scenarios are then developed into storylines. Focusing on individual perspectives until near the end allows actors with diverse cultures, interests and horizons to confront their own notions of the future. We illustrate the method with the exploration of the futures of the Barents Sea MSES by 2050. We emphasize the following lessons learned: first, many actors are not familiar with scenario building and attention must be paid to explaining the purpose, methodology, and benefits of scenarios exercises. Second, although the Barents Sea MSES is relatively well understood, uncertainties about its future are significant. Third, it is important to focus on unlikely events. Fourth, all perspectives should be treated equally. Fifth, as MSES are continuously changing, we can only be prepared for future changes if we collectively keep preparing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of cryptic species can have profound implications in fishery management, conservation and biodiversity contexts. In the North Atlantic, the genus Sebastes is currently represented by four species, although additional cryptic species have been assumed. The connectivity of the gene-pools within the genus in Greenland waters, in particular, remains largely unexplored. Using a panel of 13 microsatellite markers for 720 fish, we explored the species complex of Sebastes norvegicus in Greenland waters. Genetic analyses provided evidence for three cryptic species in samples that were morphologically identified as S. norvegicus. They were termed S. norvegicus -A, S. norvegicus -B, and S. norvegicus- giants. A few phenotypic features exist to identify adult S. norvegicus giants, but no characteristics have been identified for the two other cryptic species. The proposed cryptic species should be recognized in the management regime to ensure sustainable exploitation and conservation of Sebastes species in Greenland waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As part of the ecosystem approach to managing fisheries and other uses of marine ecosystems, there has been a growing call for the development of integrated assessment tools to support the provision of both tactical and strategic management advice. Of particular importance in this domain is the development of models that capture the dynamic interactions between social and economic systems, and marine ecosystems. In February 2013, a workshop jointly organised by the ICES working group on Integrative, Physical–biological and Ecosystem Modelling and researchers attending the “Mathematics of Bio-economics” initiative, a contribution to the international event “Mathematics of Planet Earth 2013”, brought together experts to discuss recent advances and key methodological challenges posed by this field of research. The manuscript provides a brief report of the key points discussed during the workshop, including identification of the research which may help progress both the development of these modelling approaches and their application to actual management decision problems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Cadrin, S. X., Bernreuther, M., Daníelsdóttir, A. K., Hjörleifsson, E., Johansen, T., Kerr, L., Kristinsson, K., Mariani, S., Nedreaas, K., Pampoulie, C., Planque, B., Reinert, J., Saborido-Rey, F., Sigurðsson, T., and Stransky, C. 2010. Population structure of beaked redfish, Sebastes mentella: evidence of divergence associated with different habitats. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1617–1630.Throughout their range, Sebastes spp. are adapted to a diversity of ecological niches, with overlapping spatial distributions of different species that have little or no morphological differences. Divergence of behavioural groups into depth-defined adult habitats has led to reproductive isolation, adaptive radiation, and speciation in the genus Sebastes. Recent genetic research, supported by life-history information, indicates four biological stocks of Sebastes mentella in the Irminger Sea and adjacent waters: a western stock, a deep-pelagic stock, a shallow-pelagic stock, and an Iceland slope stock. Congruent differences in fatty acids and parasites suggest that these genetically distinct populations are adapted to disparate trophic habitats in pelagic waters (shallower and deeper than the deep-scattering layer) and in demersal habitats on the continental slope. Morphology of pelagic forms is also more streamlined than demersal forms. Although genetic differences and evidence for reproductive isolation are clear, these populations appear to share common nursery habitats on the Greenland shelf. We propose a redefinition of practical management units near the Irminger Sea based on geographic proxies for biological stocks and minimizing mixed-stock catches according to the spatial patterns of the recent fishery. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Evidence has accumulated that climate variability influences the state and functioning of marine ecosystems. At the same time increasing pressure from exploitation and other human activities has been shown to impact exploited and non-exploited species and potentially modify ecosystem structure. There has been a tendency among marine scientists to pose the question as a dichotomy, i.e., whether (1) “natural” climate variability or (2) fishery exploitation bears the primary responsibility for population declines in fish populations and the associated ecosystem changes. However, effects of both climate and exploitation are probably substantially involved in most cases. More importantly, climate and exploitation interact in their effects, such that climate may cause failure in a fishery management scheme but that fishery exploitation may also disrupt the ability of a resource population to withstand, or adjust to, climate changes. Here, we review how exploitation, by altering the structure of populations and ecosystems, can modify their ability to respond to climate. The demographic effects of fishing (removal of large-old individuals) can have substantial consequences on the capacity of populations to buffer climate variability through various pathways (direct demographic effects, effects on migration, parental effects). In a similar way, selection of population sub-units within meta-populations may also lead to a reduction in the capacity of populations to withstand climate variability and change. At the ecosystem level, reduced complexity by elimination of species, such as might occur by fishing, may be destabilizing and could lead to reduced resilience to perturbations. Differential exploitation of marine resources could also promote increased turnover rates in marine ecosystems, which would exacerbate the effects of environmental changes. Overall (and despite the specificities of local situations) reduction in marine diversity at the individual, population and ecosystem levels will likely lead to a reduction in the resilience and an increase in the response of populations and ecosystems to future climate variability and change. Future management schemes will have to consider the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems in a wider sense in order to maximise the ability of marine fauna to adapt to future climates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have ramifications for ecosystems and those who depend on the services they provide. We discuss how fishing and climate forcing interact on individual fish, marine populations, marine communities, and ecosystems to bring these levels into states that are more sensitive to (i.e. more strongly related with) climate forcing. Fishing is unlikely to alter the sensitivities of individual finfish and invertebrates to climate forcing. It will remove individuals with specific characteristics from the gene pool, thereby affecting structure and function at higher levels of organisation. Fishing leads to a loss of older age classes, spatial contraction, loss of sub-units, and alteration of life history traits in populations, making them more sensitive to climate variability at interannual to interdecadal scales. Fishing reduces the mean size of individuals and mean trophic level of communities, decreasing their turnover time leading them to track environmental variability more closely. Marine ecosystems under intense exploitation evolve towards stronger bottom–up control and greater sensitivity to climate forcing. Because climate change occurs slowly, its effects are not likely to have immediate impacts on marine systems but will be manifest as the accumulation of the interactions between fishing and climate variability — unless threshold limits are exceeded. Marine resource managers need to develop approaches which maintain the resilience of individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems to the combined and interacting effects of climate and fishing. Overall, a less-heavily fished marine system, and one which shifts the focus from individual species to functional groups and fish communities, is likely to provide more stable catches with climate variability and change than would a heavily fished system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]