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The dynamic behavior of flood waves on rivers is essential to flood prediction. Natural flood waves are complex due to tributary inputs, rainfall variations, and overbank flows, so this study examines hydropower dam releases, which are simpler to analyze because channel effects are isolated. Successive arrival times and heights of peaks along 9 rivers with multiple stream gauges downstream of hydroelectric dams show that flow peaks typically become exponentially lower and wider with distance. The propagation velocity of peaks increases with water depth and channel slope but decreases with downstream distance and greater channel tortuosity. A rich hierarchy of velocities was found. Hydropower pulses progress at or in slight excess of the theoretical celerity, which is faster than the propagation rate of average natural floods, which in turn exceeds the mean velocity of water in the channel, yet the water moves faster than the peaks of record floods. The progressive changes to the height, shape, and velocity of hydropower flow peaks are simulated by the first analytical solution to the convolution integral for a rectangular source pulse that is based on diffusion-advection theory. Available data support some widely held expectations while refuting others. An expanded definition of "water mining" is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding in the Mississippi basin has become increasingly uncertain, and a succession of progressively higher, peak annual water levels is observed at many sites. Many record levels set in the central USA by the huge 1993 flood have already been superseded. Methodology developed elsewhere that recognizes trends of river stages is used to estimate present-day flood risk at 27 sites in the Mississippi basin that have >100 years of continuous stage record. Unlike official estimates that are fundamentally based on discharge, this methodology requires only data on river stage. A novel plot linearizes the official flood levels that are indirectly derived from the complex, discharge-based calculations and demonstrates that the neglect of trends has resulted in the effective use of undersized means and standard deviations in flood risk analysis. A severe consequence is that official 'base flood' levels are underestimated by 0.4 to 2 m at many sites in the central USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]