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Based on the annual maximum water level record spanning about 60 years at 34 gauging stations, we conduct flood frequency analysis in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV model performs sound estimation with the correlation coefficient at most stations larger than 0.99. To better understand the flood risk especially in ungauged regions, the spatial distribution of flood-stage is displayed for three given return periods, 10-year, 20-year and 50-year. Similar pattern can be identified for different return periods except the difference in magnitude, which generally exhibits a decreasing trend from the upper region to offshore area with a scope of about 2–9 m. Additionally, a comparison between pre-1980 and post-1980 is carried out to quantify the flood-stage alteration. The results show that most stations display increasing flood risk except for some stations in the upper estuaries, which experienced slight water level decline. Particularly, the lower part of the PRD is vulnerable to the most severe flood-stage increment. The estimated extreme water level increases by 0.35 m (14.96%), 0.59 m (21.23%) and 1.06 m (29.96%) on average at stations corresponding to 10-year, 20-year and 50-year return period, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper focuses on identifying changes in the tidal range and the duration of the flood tide in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Mann–Kendall test and regression methods are employed to verify the existence of trends in the annual tidal range and duration series (from the 1950s to 2005) at 17 stations in the 3 major tributaries of the delta. The research results indicate that generally there is an increasing trend in the tidal range and flood tide duration at most of the stations in the channel network. Moreover, the more upstream the location of the station, the more obvious the change in trend is, and these increasing trends are all significant at the stations in the upper part of the delta. Specifically, the tidal range at Shilong station in the East River has increased abruptly since the middle of the 1980s such that the mean level of post-1990 data is approximately three times that for pre-1985. Most stations near the mouth of the estuary show significant downward trends in the tidal range and flood tide duration. Results of the intersection point of the Mann–Kendall test curves for these Pearl River Delta stations appear mostly in 1980s–1990s, indicating that a noticeable change point occurs during this period. Human activities in the Pearl River Delta reached their peak during the 1980s. Among these, large-scale and long-term sand excavation modified the hydrodynamic regime dramatically in a way that increased the water depth and lowered the level of the riverbed, leading to an increased tidal prism and upstream movement of the tidal limit. Land reclamation is also likely to have had a relatively large effect on the tidal range and flood tide duration at stations near to the estuary mouth. Changes in other factors, such as freshwater flow and sea-level rise, seem to be of relatively minor importance. It is noteworthy that in a dry season the tidal dynamics are greatly enhanced and has resulted in strong saltwater intrusion into the estuary in recent years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]