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Mixtures of substances to which humans are exposed may lead to cumulative exposure and health effects. To study their effects, it is first necessary to identify a cumulative assessment group (CAG) of substances for risk assessment or hazard testing. Excluding substances from consideration before there is sufficient evidence may underestimate the risk. Conversely, including everything and treating the inevitable uncertainties using conservative assumptions is inefficient and may overestimate the risk, with an unknown level of protection. An efficient, transparent strategy is described to retain a large group, quantifying the uncertainty of group membership and other uncertainties. Iterative refinement of the CAG then focuses on adding information for the substances with high probability of contributing significantly to the risk. Probabilities can be estimated using expert opinion or derived from data on substance properties. An example is presented with 100 pesticides, in which the retain step identified a single substance to target refinement. Using an updated hazard characterisation for this substance reduced the mean exposure estimate from 0.43 to 0.28 μg kg-bw -1 day -1 and reduced the 99.99th percentile exposure from 24.9 to 5.1 μg kg-bw -1 day -1 . Other retained substances contributed little to the risk estimates, even after accounting for uncertainty., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Pesticide residues in food can lead to harmful toxic effects when exposed. Some of these compounds have a common Mode of Action and thus elicit a similar biological response. This paper considers the triazoles, a class of widely used fungicides exhibiting the same short-term (acute) and long-term (chronic) response in humans. We examined Belgian pesticide residue data from 2011-2014 and coupled these with the results of the Belgian food consumption survey of 2004. Cumulative probabilistic risk assessment was done using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment 8.0 web application. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published a guidance document that proposes both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for dietary exposure assessment. Other than those two, a third, more balanced, scenario was simulated and showed an exposure right in between the EFSA scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, the foods with the highest measured residues in the residue data contributed the most to the total health risk. In the balanced and pessimistic scenarios, the highest contribution to the total health risk was made by active ingredients with a high sampling rate and/or a high consumption rate. No significant trends were observed in the health risk through 2011 to 2014, and the exposure distribution showed no health risks for the extreme consumers, with one exception in 2012.

Populations are exposed to mixtures of pesticides through their diet on a daily basis. The question of which substances should be assessed together remains a major challenge due to the complexity of the mixtures. In addition, the associated risk is difficult to characterise. The EuroMix project (European Test and Risk Assessment Strategies for Mixtures) has developed a strategy for mixture risk assessment. In particular, it has proposed a methodology that combines exposures and hazard information to identify relevant mixtures of chemicals belonging to any cumulative assessment group (CAG) to which the European population is exposed via food. For the purposes of this study, food consumption and pesticide residue data in food and drinking water were obtained from national surveys in nine European countries. Mixtures of pesticides were identified by a sparse non-negative matrix underestimation (SNMU) applied to the specific liver steatosis effect in children from 11 to 15 years of age, and in adults from 18 to 64 years of age in nine European countries. Exposures and mixtures of 144 pesticides were evaluated through four different scenarios: (1) chronic exposure with a merged concentration dataset in the adult population, (2) chronic exposure with country-specific concentration datasets in the adult population, (3) acute exposure with a merged concentration dataset in the adult population, and (4) chronic exposure with a merged concentration dataset in the paediatric population. The relative potency factors of each substance were calculated to express their potency relative to flusilazole, which was chosen as the reference compound. The selection of mixtures and the evaluation of exposures for each country were carried out using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software. Concerning chronic exposure, one mixture explained the largest proportion of the total variance for each country, while in acute exposure, several mixtures were often involved. The results showed that there were 15 main pesticides in the mixtures, with a high contribution of imazalil and dithiocarbamate. Since the concentrations provided by the different countries were merged in the scenario using merged concentration data, differences between countries result from differences in food consumption behaviours. These results support the approach that using merged concentration data to estimate exposures in Europe seems to be realistic, as foods are traded across European borders. The originality of the proposed approach was to start from a CAG and to integrate information from combined exposures to identify a refined list of mixtures with fewer components. As this approach was sensitive to the input data and required significant resources, efforts should continue regarding data collection and harmonisation among the different aspects within the pesticides regulatory framework, and to develop methods to group substances and mixtures to characterise the risk., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.)

Long-term dietary exposures to lead in young children were calculated by combining food consumption data of 11 European countries categorised using harmonised broad food categories with occurrence data on lead from different Member States (pan-European approach). The results of the assessment in children living in the Netherlands were compared with a long-term lead intake assessment in the same group using Dutch lead concentration data and linking the consumption and concentration data at the highest possible level of detail. Exposures obtained with the pan-European approach were higher than the national exposure calculations. For both assessments cereals contributed most to the exposure. The lower dietary exposure in the national study was due to the use of lower lead concentrations and a more optimal linkage of food consumption and concentration data. When a pan-European approach, using a harmonised food categorisation system and "European" concentration data, results in a possible health risk related to the intake of an environmental chemical for a certain country, it is advisable to refine this assessment, as part of a tiered approach, using national occurrence data, including an optimised linkage between foods analysed and consumed for that country. In the case of lack of occurrence data, these data can be supplemented with data from the "European" concentration database or by generating additional concentration data at country level.

Within the European project called EXPOCHI (Individual Food Consumption Data and Exposure Assessment Studies for Children), 14 different European individual food consumption databases of children were used to conduct harmonised dietary exposure assessments for lead, chromium, selenium and food colours. For this, two food categorisation systems were developed to classify the food consumption data in such a way that these could be linked to occurrence data of the considered compounds. One system served for the exposure calculations of lead, chromium and selenium. The second system was developed for the exposure assessment of food colours. The food categories defined for the lead, chromium and selenium exposure calculations were used as a basis for the food colour categorisation, with adaptations to optimise the linkage with the food colour occurrence data. With this work, an initial impetus was given to make user-friendly food categorisation systems for contaminants and food colours applicable on a pan-European level. However, a set of difficulties were encountered in creating a common food categorisation system for 14 individual food consumption databases that differ in the type and number of foods coded and in level of detail provided about the consumed foods. The work done and the problems encountered in this project can be of interest for future projects in which food consumption data will be collected on a pan-European level and used for common exposure assessments.

A recently published multivariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT) model is applied to the estimation of population risks associated with dietary intake of pesticides. The objective is to quantify the acute risk of pesticide intake above a threshold and relate it to the consumption of specific primary food products. As an example daily intakes of a pesticide from three foods are considered. The method models and extrapolates simultaneous intakes of pesticide, and estimates probability of exceeding unobserved large intakes. Multivariate analysis was helpful in identifying whether the avoidance of certain food combinations would reduce the likelihood of exceeding a threshold. We argue that the presented method can be an important contribution to exposure assessment studies.

Trichothecenes are mycotoxins produced by several fungal genera, mainly Fusarium species, that can contaminate a wide range of cereals used for human and animal consumption. They are associated with various adverse health effects in animals and humans such as feed refusal, vomiting and immunotoxic effects. A method based on capillary gas chromatography with mass spectrometric detection was developed and validated in-house for the determination of nine trichothecenes in duplicate diets of young children. The trichothecenes were extracted from the sample matrix by water/ethanol (90/10). The extracts were cleaned by means of ChemElut and Mycosep columns. The cleaned extracts were evaporated to dryness and derivatized to trimethylsilyl ethers at room temperature. The residues were dissolved in iso-octane and washed with water. The final extracts were analysed for trichothecenes by GC-MS. The response was linear in the range tested (1-10 microg kg(-1)). Recoveries for the trichothecenes were between 70 and 111%, with the exception of nivalenol, which had a low recovery (34%). The limit of quantification for all trichothecenes was below 0.4 microg kg(-1). Seventy-four food samples from young children collected by 74 respondents in a duplicate diet study were analysed for trichothecenes with the developed method. The mean levels of deoxynivalenol, nivalenol, HT-2 toxin and T-2 toxin were 5.8, 0.3, 0.3 and 0.1 microg kg(-1), respectively. Based on the individual results, dietary intake calculations were made. For deoxynivalenol, the tolerable daily intake of 1 microg kg(-1) body weight was exceeded by nine respondents. For the combined intake of T-2 and HT-2 toxin, the temporary tolerable daily intake of 0.06 microg kg(-1) body weight was exceeded by nine respondents.

A probabilistic model for dietary exposure to pesticides was validated. For this, we evaluated the agreement of dietary exposure to six pesticides as estimated with the model with exposures measured in duplicate diet samples (='real intake') and those calculated with the point estimate. To calculate the exposure with the model and point estimate, consumption data of the duplicate diet survey and pesticide residue measurements from Dutch monitoring programmes in 2000 and 2001 were used. The model was considered validated when the outcome was both higher than the real intake and lower than the point estimate. Results showed that exposures estimated with the model were closer to the real intake than those of the point estimate, and that the model outcome was lower than the point estimate. Furthermore, it was shown that the probabilistic approach can address the exposure to a pesticide via the consumption of different food products, while the point estimate only estimates the exposure through the consumption of one product. The model validated is a valuable asset when estimating the dietary exposure to pesticides in both the authorization of new pesticides and the evaluation of exposures using monitoring data.

Exposure assessment is one of the key parts of the risk assessment process. Only intake of toxicologically significant amounts can lead to adverse health effects even for a relatively toxic substance. In the case of chemicals in foods this is based on three major aspects: (i) how to determine quantitatively the presence of a chemical in individual foods and diets, including its fate during the processes within the food production chain; (ii) how to determine the consumption patterns of the individual foods containing the relevant chemicals; (iii) how to integrate both the likelihood of consumers eating large amounts of the given foods and of the relevant chemical being present in these foods at high levels. The techniques used for the evaluation of these three aspects have been critically reviewed in this paper to determine those areas where the current approaches provide a solid basis for assessments and those areas where improvements are needed or desirable. For those latter areas, options for improvements are being suggested, including, for example, the development of a pan-European food composition database, activities to understand better effects of processing on individual food chemicals, harmonisation of food consumption survey methods with the option of a regular pan-European survey, evaluation of probabilistic models and the development of models to assess exposure to food allergens. In all three areas, the limitations of the approaches currently used lead to uncertainties which can either cause an over- or underestimation of real intakes and thus risks. Given these imprecisions, risk assessors tend to build in additional uncertainty factors to avoid health-relevant underestimates. This is partly done by using screening methods designed to look for "worst case" situations. Such worse case assumptions lead to intake estimates that are higher than reality. These screening methods are used to screen all those chemicals with a safe intake distribution. For chemicals with a potential risk, more information is needed to allow more refined screening or even the most accurate estimation. More information and more refined methods however, require more resources. The ultimate aims are: (1) to obtain appropriate estimations for the presence and quantity of a given chemical in a food and in the diet in general; (2) to assess the consumption patterns for the foods containing these substances, including especially those parts of the population with high consumption and thus potentially high intakes; and (3) to develop and apply tools to predict reliably the likelihood of high end consumption with the presence of high levels of the relevant substances. It has thus been demonstrated that a tiered approach at all three steps can be helpful to optimise the use of the available resources: if relatively crude tools - designed to provide a "worst case" estimate - do not suggest a toxicologically significant exposure (or a relevant deficit of a particular nutrient) it may not be necessary to use more sophisticated tools. These will be needed if initially high intakes are indicated for at least parts of the population. Existing pragmatic approaches are a first crude step to model food chemical intake. It is recommended to extend, refine and validate this approach in the near future. This has to result in a cost-effective exposure assessment system to be used for existing and potential categories of chemicals. This system of knowledge (with information on sensitivities, accuracy, etc.) will guide future data collection.

The mycotoxin, deoxynivalenol (DON), is produced world-wide by the Fusarium genus in different cereal crops. We derived a provisional TDI of 1.1 microg/kg body weight (bw) and proposed a concentration limit of 129 microg DON/kg wheat based on this TDI and a high wheat consumption of children. In the period September 1998-January 2000, the average DON concentration in wheat was 446 microg/kg (n = 219) in The Netherlands. During this period, the dietary intake of DON exceeded the provisional TDI, especially in children. Eighty percent of the one-year-olds showed a DON intake above the provisional TDI and 20% of these children exceeded twice the provisional TDI. Our probabilistic effect assessment shows that at these exposure levels, health effects may occur. Suppressive effects on body weights and relative liver weight were estimated at 2.2 and 2.7%. However, the large confidence intervals around these estimates indicated that the magnitudes of these effects are uncertain.

A Total Diet Study (TDS) consists of selecting, collecting and preparing commonly consumed foods purchased at retail level and analysing them for harmful and/or beneficial chemical substances. A food classification system is needed to link food consumption data with the contaminant concentration data obtained in the TDS for the exposure assessment. In this study a comparison was made between the use of a national food classification systems and the use of FoodEx-1, developed and recommended by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The work was performed using data of six European countries: Belgium, Czech Republic, France, The Netherlands, Spain and the UK. For each population, exposure to contaminant A (organic compounds) and/or contaminant B (inorganic compound) was assessed by the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software using the national classification system and FoodEx-1 for food consumption data and for TDS laboratory results. Minimal differences between both approaches were observed. This observation applied for both contaminant A and contaminant B. In general risk assessment will be similar for both approaches; however, this is not guaranteed. FoodEx-1 proved to be a valuable hierarchic classification system in order to harmonise exposure assessment based on existing TDS results throughout Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]