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2 results on '"Erkin Isaev"'

1. Agricultural Drought-Triggering for Anticipatory Action in Papua New Guinea

Author

Erkin Isaev, Nathan Yuave, Kasis Inape, Catherine Jones, Lazarus Dawa, and Roy C. Sidle

Subjects
early warning, artificial intelligence, machine learning, early action, forecast-based financing, food security, Hydraulic engineering, TC1-978, Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes, TD201-500
Abstract

Throughout its history, Papua New Guinea (PNG) has faced recurrent agricultural droughts, imposing considerable strain on both livelihoods and the economy. Particularly severe droughts have been associated with El Niño climate patterns. During these episodes, PNG becomes especially vulnerable to extended periods of aridity and diminished precipitation. Historically, humanitarian assistance for these events has primarily focused on responding to emergencies after an agricultural drought has been declared and communities have already been impacted. Here, we developed a proactive agricultural drought-triggering method for anticipatory action (AA) in PNG to offer a more sustainable and cost-effective approach to address this hazard. Our AA uses weather forecasts and risk data to identify and implement mitigative actions before a disaster occurs. The research details a step-by-step guide from early warning to action implemented by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and the Government of Papua New Guinea. This preemptive disaster risk management initiative integrates a combined drought index (CDI) with specific thresholds and tailored anticipatory actions based on crop calendars. Moreover, the developed CDI provides a 3-month lead time for implementing AA to reduce the impact of the agricultural drought. During the El Niño-induced drought event that began in 2023, the CDI was tested and the AA was piloted for the first time.

Published
2024
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2. Assessing Climate Change Impact on Cropland Suitability in Kyrgyzstan: Where Are Potential High-Quality Cropland and the Way to the Future

Author

Woo-Kyun Lee, Chul Hee Lim, Sea Jin Kim, Sugyeong Park, Sung-Dae Lee, Erkin Isaev, and Sol-E Choi

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, Distribution (economics), Climate change, 01 natural sciences, Grassland, Spillover effect, Scenario analysis, Kyrgyzstan, climate change adaptation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Food security, business.industry, Agroforestry, random forest model, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, scenario analysis, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, cropland suitability, Psychological resilience, business, Agronomy and Crop Science
Abstract

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in Kyrgyzstan. There have been negative spillover effects in agriculture. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on cropland suitability in Kyrgyzstan. We used the random forest algorithm to develop a model that captures the effects of multiple climate and environment factors at a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The model was then applied in the scenario analysis for an understanding of how climate change affects cropland distribution. The potential high-quality cropland was found to be included in existing croplands, while the remaining were distributed around the Chu-Talas valley, the Issyk-kul area, and the Fergana valley. These potential high-quality croplands comprise grasslands (47.1%) and croplands (43.7%). In the future, the potential high-quality cropland exhibited inland trends at the periphery of original cropland category, with grassland and cropland as the primary land components. Due to climate change, potential high-quality cropland is expected to gradually reduce from the 2050s to the 2070s, exhibiting the largest reduction in potential high-quality areas for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Therefore, the short- and long-term adaptation strategies are needed for prioritizing the croplands to ensure food security and agricultural resilience.

Published
2021

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