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The 2022 Ukraine conflict has contributed to a major spike in international commodity prices. In this study, we conduct a top-down, macro-micro simulation analysis by combining Computable General Equilibrium simulations with data from the 2018–19 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to analyze the impact of global price shock to four major commodities, namely wheat, vegetable oil, petroleum, and fertilizers. We come up with evidence for a significant, non-negligible negative impact of the price shock, both at the aggregate and the household level: Real GDP shrinks and real household consumption and income decrease. The drop in consumption and income is more visible among farm households, with the two falling by 5% and 3.48% respectively. The consumption and income of the above-median income households fall more steeply, and income inequality decreases. The USD3.2 headcount poverty rate at the 2018 purchasing power parity increases by 1.15%. Urban households show the worst decline in food security, both in incidence and intensity. The role of petrol prices in driving poverty among rural farm households and that of food stuff (wheat and vegetable oil prices) in aggravating urban food security is particularly evident. These findings highlight the poverty and food security-worsening dimension of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

The 2007–08 global food crisis led to hunger riots around the world. Food prices have again risen spectacularly since the COVID-19 pandemic but have fortunately not led to major social unrest in the global South. In this research note, we argue that the difference lies, in part, in the nature of the two price shocks and, in part, in the policy response from governments and international organizations. This time round, the stability of rice prices appears to have dampened the impact of food inflation in major rice-importing countries. This pattern of global rice price is in sharp contrast to that seen in 2008 when the price tripled between January and May. The two food crises also differ substantially in the extent and responsiveness of public policy. Right from March 2020, governments began taking fiscal and administrative measures to help the populations suffering from the loss of livelihood. Nonetheless, food inflation remains a concern, and prolonged conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing inflation spiral could put in jeopardy the mitigating effects of anti-inflationary policy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asia remains one of the major strongholds of hunger in the world, despite the fact that, following the Green Revolution, cereal production in the countries of this region tripled during the second half of the 20th century. This study examines the role played by this increase in cereal production in improving the region's nutrition and food security situation. We study the association between the different aspects of food security and cereal production in South Asia that have prevailed over the past 25 years. We find a beneficial role of the production and yield of cereals in lowering the extent of undernourishment. A 1% increase in cereal production and yield is associated with up to 0.84% decrease in the prevalence of undernourishment. The impact is significant over a period of 3 years. The positive effect is particularly evident in the case of rice and maize production. An improvement is seen in the aspects of availability, stability, and utilization of food security but not in the aspect of access. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and techniques. The results explain, in part, the means by which South Asian nations have managed to stall relative increases in extreme hunger and food insecurity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is the world's biggest battleground in the fight against hunger. African governments and the international development community have increasingly focused on finding ways and means to end hunger and ensure the right and access to food for the continent's burgeoning population. Public spending on agriculture is one such measure. This study examines the role government spending on agriculture has played in enhancing the state of Africa's food security over the past 25 years. We examine the existing relationship between the two, whether this relationship varies over time and space, and whether it depends on the amount spent. We explore various aspects of food security and check whether spending on research and development follows the same patterns as the overall public agricultural spending. We find some evidence of significant beneficial effects of public agricultural spending on food security but only for the countries which allocate greater proportions of their budgets to agriculture. Spending on agricultural research and development also shows a positive impact on Africa's food security. There also exists some evidence supporting the temporal effects of public spending. We consider that the Maputo Declaration commitment to allocate at least 10% of public spending to agriculture pertinent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the decade since the 2008 global food crisis, West African countries have made efforts to raise domestic rice production and to make the region self-sufficient. Today, West Africa produces nearly two-thirds of Africa's rice. The region's rice import dependency has fallen from nearly half of local consumption in 2010 to about 30%. In spite of this improvement, the region remains the world's second largest rice importer. The situation of Benin, Burkina Fasso, Gambia and Niger remains challenging with rice import dependency still exceeding 70%. Production in some countries has fallen even below the 2010 level due to civil strife, climatic changes and macroeconomic difficulties. Countries of the region, on average, allocate less than 5% of their budget to agriculture, less than half the share committed in the Maputo Agreement. The Covid-19 outbreak and corresponding preventive lockdowns have posed a new challenge as food supply chains were stretched; production, transportation and consumption fell sharply; and household income was affected. In addition, closure of frontiers and temporary trade disruption in major Asian rice exporters has led to increase in rice prices in the international market. In late April, rice futures rose to reach a level not surpassed since 2011. This threatens to further aggravate an already fragile food security situation in the region. The crisis again points to the need for greater efforts at the national and international level to achieve food security. West African countries will need to enhance public spending on agriculture with a greater focus on measures aimed at improving rice productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]