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Crude oil price volatility impacts the global economy in general, as well as the economies of Europe and the United States in particular; it is supremely difficult to describe its tendency precisely, hence it leads to a forecasting methodology. This study aims to use the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approaches to cope with this problem in the United States and Europe. The data was gathered from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and federal research economic data (FRED) from January 2017 to September 2021. Simultaneously, values from January 2017 to March 2021, with 51 observations accounting for 90% of the total samples, were employed for the training phase, and the rest were used for the testing phase. The forecast result also indicated that the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values, applied by ARIMA models in Europe and the United States, have higher accurate indicators than SARIMA models. As a result, the ARIMA model achieved the best accuracy in both Europe and the USA, with   MAPE Europe − ARIMA = 0.05, and MAPE USA − ARIMA = 0.05 . Based on these accuracy parameters, the forecasting models appear incredibly reliable; similarly, the study results might assist governing bodies in making significant decisions, thereby accelerating socio-economic development in the world's two largest economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food insecurity is a widespread concern in the United States. Addressing this concern is a chief goal of many non-profit organizations including food banks. Understanding the availability of donations is beneficial when addressing the demand in local communities, especially when their collection requires food bank-managed vehicles. High-volume donors such as supermarkets, however, do not provide information in regards to what items are available. This can negatively impact inventory management capabilities and cause unnecessary transportation costs. This research evaluates four approximation methods based on their ability to estimate food availability at supermarkets including the multiple layer perceptron artificial neural network, multiple linear regression, and two naïve estimates for the average collection amount. Using a subset of the historic data provided by the Food Bank of Central and Eastern North Carolina (FBCENC), the four approximation methods are evaluated in terms of their ability to estimate collection amounts in the next planning period. Transportation cost estimates are then calculated using projections made using each approximation method and compared to those calculated using the actual transportation costs. Results suggest that the MLP-NN models provide the best approximations for each food type and provide closer estimations for transportation cost than other approximation methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This investigation explored the extent to which an economic recession predicted changes in college students' optimism about the length and quality of their futures. In a cross-sectional design, college students in the United States rated their likelihood of divorcing, being unhappy in their career, and living past age 60, at time points before, during, and in the aftermath of an economic recession (2007-2010). Economic indicators, particularly gas prices, predicted decreased optimism as the indicators worsened. After the recession, however, optimism rebounded. The findings reveal that people's expectations for their personal futures are generally sensitive to the state of the national economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An essay is presented on the future of capitalism, from the perspective of the concept of social power. Subjects discussed include the world systems theory of American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, called by the author the Great Recession 2008, and the role of the United States in the world economy in the 21st century.

This study uses a state-space model to estimate the "true" unobserved measure of total output in the U.S. economy. The analysis uses the entire history (i.e., all vintages) of selected real-time data series to compute revisions and corresponding statistics for those series. The revision statistics, along with the most recent data vintage, are used in a state-space model to extract filtered estimates of the "true" series. Under certain assumptions, Monte Carlo simulations suggest this framework can improve published estimates by as much as 30 percent, lasting an average of 11 periods. Realtime experiments using a measure of real gross domestic product show improvement closer to 10 percent, lasting for 1 to 2 quarters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the author's views on an article by Richard Anderson and Charles Gascon regarding a state-space model for measuring total output of the U.S. economy, which has been published in this issue. The author discusses the procedure used by Anderson and Gascon for data revisions over a length of time. The author comments on the problem of benchmark revisions in the method used by Anderson and Gascon.

The article offers an outlook on the U.S. economy. A growth in the economy is expected with the increase in the gross domestic product (GDP). The significant role played by the consumers, particularly households, in the economic activity and the forecasts regarding personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are discussed. The article also explores the dominance of inflation and interest rates in the economy and the consideration of the declining oil prices as a key component in the inflation forecast.

Focuses on Brian Berry's article "The Geography of the United States in the year 2000." Analysis of the growth patterns in regional and national economies; Failure of Berry to acknowledge the popularity of the Internet; Challenging opportunities posed by Berry's article for intellectual reflection and stimulation.

This paper describes a forecast of the date for the resumption of growth of the US economy in 2001. It uses an expert judgment approach within the framework of decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, as well as its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process.Note: We request the reader of this article to regard the following in considering our analysis and findings. The forecasting exercise described in this paper was conducted on April 7, 2001, while the final version of the manuscript was accepted for publication in August 2001. The authors clearly could not have taken into account the horrific acts of September 11, 2001 in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania. As is now well known, the events of that day have significantly affected, in a negative manner, consumer and investor confidence both in the US and around the world. Further, they have moved the federal government to consider various budget deficit-exacerbating measures. These include massive financial assistance to the airline industry, emergency financial assistance for New York City, and the upgrading and enhancement (probably under federal control) of airline security systems. Importantly, all these measures come at a time when many analysts project a reduction in tax revenues associated with the economic decline in progress prior to September 11. Clearly, it will be many months before the net effects of these phenomena can be fully assessed in terms of the future course of the US economy.Note: We ask the reader of this article to consider the following in considering our analysis and findings: The forecasting exercise described in this paper was conducted on April 7, 2001, while the final version of the manuscript was accepted for publication in August 2001. The authors clearly could not have taken into account the horrific acts of September 11, 2001 in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania. As is now well known, the events of that day have significantly affected, in a negative manner, consumer and investor confidence both in the U.S. and around the world. Further, they have moved the federal government to consider various budget deficit-exacerbating measures. These include massive financial assistance to the airline industry, emergency financial assistance for New York City, and the upgrading and enhancement (probably under federal control) of airline security systems. Importantly, all these measures come at a time when many analysts project a reduction in tax revenues associated with the economic decline in progress prior to September 11. Clearly, it will be many months before the net effects of these phenomena can be fully assessed in terms of the future course of the U.S. economy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Focuses on the growth of inequality on social economy in the United States. Confusion about the relationship between equity and economic system; Concept of equality according to Aristotle; Sources of social problems.

Presents minutes of a meeting of the United States Federal Reserve System, Federal Open Market Committee held in Washington, D.C. on August 21, 2001. Discussion of the economic and financial outlook; Implementation of monetary policy; Trade deficit in goods and services over the May-June period.

Presents an enhanced two-sector economic growth model created to project health care and Social Security expenditures as a share of GDP in the United States. Basis of the parameters used in the economic simulation model; Advantages of an economic model over the actuarial models; Projected rate increase in spending on health care for the elderly.

Argues that there is a significant possibility that the first order of business of the new United States (US) President in 2001 may well be economic crisis management. Risks with the US economy; Possible decline of the rate of US economic growth; Issues associated with the inequality of income between rich and poor nations; Essential components of the economic agenda for the next president.

Assesses the growth of the United States economy in 1994 and the outlook for 1995. Increase in real economic growth by nearly four percent; Positive effect of strong economic growth; Significant drop in unemployment rate; Increase in US exports; Reason for expecting a reduced pace in the US economy in 1995; Three factors for continued economic growth; Four keys to US economy's long-run performance.

Presents a report submitted to Congress on July 20, 1994 on monetary policy and the economic outlook for 1994 and 1995 in the United States. The performance of the economy in 1994 first half; Monetary and financial developments in 1994.

Discusses the policies that has affected the economic condition of United States. How the export policies affected the economy of U.S.; Strategy used by the government to minimize the risk of inflation; Areas of spending that are the major absorbers of the persistent growth of the national income; Information about the economic plan of President George Bush; Ideal policy of the government in restoring the growth of its economy; More information.

A Methodology for estimating expected real interest rates and making inflation forecasts, together with appropriate confidence intervals, is presented. The role of price expectations in determining real interest rates is also analyzed. Structural breaks in the process generating real interest rates are detected in 1980 and 1983 by tracking the accuracy of interest-rate forecasts. Analysis of these structural breaks reveals that the break at the beginning of 1983 returns the process to its pre-1980 formulation. During 1953-1985, price forecasts derived from the interest-rate model are found to be unbiased once the structural breaks in the real rate process are handled through heteroscedastic corrections. Invoking the rational-expectations hypothesis, we construct a general yet parsimonious dynamic model for estimating economic agents' anticipations of the real rate of interest. By using quarterly data for 1953-1985 the model is efficiently estimated by two-step two-stage least squares. Results provide support for a random-walk process and for the existence of a negative price expectations (Tobin-Mundell) effect on real interest rates. The U.S. economy was subjected to a number of shocks in the early 1980s. A new chairman took the helm of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) in 1979, and almost immediately the Fed announced that it would change its operating procedure from controlling interest rates to targeting the money supply. The Fed then returned to its pre-1979 operating procedure in October 1982. Added to these changes were the tightening of credit controls in the first half of 1980, the advent of the large fiscal deficits of the Reagan administration, and a fall in petroleum prices. To some degree, all of these shocks probably contributed to the greater... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]