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In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.