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This paper investigates the multi‐dimensional non‐linear exponential smoothing prediction method under different weight coefficients, so as to realize the short‐term prediction of the original wind power output. Based on the current research on wind power fluctuation prediction, this paper firstly proposes a new multi‐dimensional nonlinear exponential smoothing prediction method. Based on different weight coefficients, the corresponding short‐term forecast volatility is obtained. Then, the wavelet packet decomposition method is used to further realize the secondary smoothing of the prediction wind power fluctuations. Hybrid energy storage system (HESS) plays an important role in wind power fluctuation suppression from different frequency bands. However, the traditional fixed frequency power allocation method significantly degrades the performance of the accuracy of the algorithm. Therefore, this paper proposes a frequency conversion entropy strategy, which combines energy value with wavelet packet decomposition. By calculating the energy components of different frequency bands, the fluctuation can be divided effectively. Finally, simulation and experiment discussions show that the proposed algorithm in this paper can realize the power allocation effectively compared to the traditional one. And it further verifies the feasibility and reliability of the strategy proposed in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the current multi-source information scenario, this paper proposes a decision-making method for electric vehicle charging stations (EVCSs) based on prospect theory, which considers payment cost, time cost, and route factors, and is used for electric vehicle (EV) owners to make decisions when the vehicle's electricity is low. Combined with the multi-source information architecture composed of an information layer, algorithm layer, and model layer, the load of EVCSs in the region is forecast. In this paper, the Monte Carlo method is used to test the IEEE-30 model and the traffic network based on it, and the spatial and temporal distribution of charging load in the region is obtained, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that EVCS load forecasting based on the prospect theory under the influence of multi-source information will have an impact on the space–time distribution of the EVCS load, which is more consistent with the decisions of EV owners in reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accuracy level of short-term load forecasting (STLF) affects the power department's arrangements for unit start-up, shutdown, overhaul, and load dispatching. However, the existing algorithms do not fully consider load volatility and difficulty in setting the algorithm parameters. In this regard, this paper proposes a hybrid model which combines complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), gated recurrent unit (GRU) with improved gray wolf optimizer (IGWO), namely CEEMDAN–IGWO–GRU (CIG) hybrid algorithm. Firstly, the details and trend information of the load signal are separated by the CEEMDAN algorithm to suppress the interference of load fluctuation. Then, the GRU network optimized by IGWO parameters is used to predict each component, separately. Finally, the complete load forecasting results are obtained by reconstructing the forecasting result of each component. The power load data of a certain area under study is used to verify the CIG model, and the experimental results are compared with other existing algorithms. The experimental results show that the load forecasting results of the CIG model get the high-precision evaluation of 0.6997%, 52.4685, and 38.1891 MW in MAPE, RMSE, and MAE, respectively. Therefore, the parameter optimization ability of the IGWO algorithm can effectively improve the prediction accuracy, and the CIG method can availably suppress the impact of load fluctuation on prediction and has a powerful nonlinear fitting ability. In conclusion, CIG has great potential in establishing a power load forecasting model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reduce the short‐term load forecasting (STLF) error of off‐line forecasting model, a VMD‐IWOA‐LSTM (VIL) method for STLF is proposed. Firstly, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose the historical power load signals. Then, the decomposed signals are reconstructed according to the similarity of Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), and meteorological data are chosen for each reconstructed component based on the set PCC threshold. The long short‐term memory (LSTM) models are used to predict the corresponding components, and improved whale optimization algorithm (IWOA) is used to optimize the parameters in LSTM. Finally, the forecast results of each component are added together to get the final forecast result. The experimental results of power load data in a certain area show that the proposed method has the advantages of strong anti‐interference performance and high prediction accuracy compared with other methods, and has strong practicability. © 2022 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proper integration of wind power-driven grids relies heavily on a reliable balance between electricity production and demand. Therefore, accurate prediction is essential for planning and efficient operation of wind power systems to ensure their continuous supply. However, increasingly severe power quality disturbance (PQD) constantly disturbs this equilibrium, which affects the accuracy of wind power prediction to a large extent. For this purpose, this paper developed a novel optimization methodology to improve wind power prediction accuracy considering micro PQD dimension reduction and elimination for wind-storage integrated systems. A novel idea has been presented in this optimization methodology to eliminate the barrier of PQD and wind power prediction. In the micro aspect, a PQD dimension reduction and elimination strategy based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) and Wiener Filter (WF) is proposed to eliminate the autonomy of PQD. This elimination of autonomy allows the WF to get a higher signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In the macro aspect, this paper takes PQD of different complexity into full consideration, and compares their effects on improving wind power prediction accuracy based on deep learning-based approaches. Through the experimental verification, it is confirmed that the proposed DMD-WF optimization method has demonstrated an effective dimension reduction and elimination of PQD. Moreover, it is found that the proposed PQD optimization method contributes to improve the deep learning-based prediction accuracy when PQD is more complex. The proposed methodology creates a novel perspective to improve the short-term wind power prediction accuracy, which provides a theoretical and methodological guidance for future development of large-scale integrated wind-storage systems. • Development of a novel methodology of PQD optimization and wind power prediction. • A Wiener Filter and dimension reduction-based PQD optimization method is proposed. • WOA-Attention-LSTM is used to analyze forecast accuracy based on PQD optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]