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Focuses on speculations about the revaluation of the Chinese Rminbi currency as of February 2004. Calls by the Group of Seven industrialized nations for countries to support greater flexibility in exchange rate policies; Anonymous speculations on newspaper reports on when the central bank will revalue the currency; Deterioration of the business environment for Chinese companies is deteriorating; Contention of China that its economy and the banking system could not withstand a sudden change in currency policy.

The article focuses on an April 14 meeting of the Economic Club of Toronto. The discussion slated for the gathering: the U.S. dollar, which analysts believe is on the edge of another drop, as a sort of catastrophic end to its long, slow slide. The day's speaker, Andrew Busch, global market strategist at BMO Financial, gave a contrarian take. Yes, Busch said, there is a huge trade deficit between China and the U.S., and that's put the world out of balance. Busch argued the important signal for currency markets is that the U.S. is trying to do something about the situation, and its efforts could surprise market watchers and foreign-exchange traders who think they're betting on a sure thing. If nothing else, Busch's view illustrates the slipperiness of predicting currency markets.