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Purpose: The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country's Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants. Design/methodology/approach: Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated. Findings: One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors. Research limitations/implications: This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects. Originality/value: An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates connections between currency and stock markets for the Asian emerging economies using a novel approach that considers exchange rate management. We build an index of exchange market pressure and examine its association with stock market returns using a DCC-GARCH model, as well as Granger causality tests. We find a negative time-varying association between exchange market pressure and stock market returns. Moreover, there is bidirectional causality between these variables in many cases. China and India have much less of a relationship than do smaller neighbors such as Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. This research draws important implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following Euro adoption, it is expected that a country's inflation rates and other macroeconomic variables will continue to converge to those of other members of the bloc. But fixed exchange rates can cause macroeconomic adjustment to take place through goods prices, and varying geographic and historic ties might lead to different degrees of inflation convergence among economic regions. This study examines monthly inflation series for five Central and Eastern European Euro members, testing for structural breaks before analyzing correlations and stationary inflation differentials versus four regional country groups. Overall, certain regional groupings have stronger connections than others post-Euro, such as Estonia with its Nordic neighbors and, more recently, with the largest EU economies. We find that no CEE inflation rate has a breakpoint that corresponds specifically to Euro adoption. Instead, all countries have multiple breaks, and four inflation series have a final structural break occurring in 2013, after which general convergence versus all four regions increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Domestic credit expansion in CEE economies, fuelled in part by foreign capital inflows, helped increase household welfare before the 2008 financial crisis caused a contraction across the region. How strong are the linkages between the current account, domestic credit and consumer spending? This study compiles a quarterly dataset of domestic credit as a share of GDP for 11 CEE European Union members and isolates structural breaks in the series' growth rates that often align with the 2008 crisis. Vector autoregressive methods, particularly impulse response functions, show that increased current-account deficits lead to increased consumption in six of the 11 countries and increased credit growth in three, and that shocks to credit growth increase consumption in six countries. Capital inflows significantly increase consumption through domestic credit in Slovenia, while the Baltics show a large share of significant effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Years after the fall of Communism, countries in Central and Eastern Europe follow a variety of often-changing exchange-rate and inflation targets. How has inflation behaved under such different regimes? This article compares monthly CPI and PPI inflation for six fixed-rate and four floating-rate currencies before estimating structural breaks in each series. It compares whether the mean and variance differ across the breaks in each series, using parametric and nonparametric tests. Granger causality testing is used to examine spillovers between inflation- and exchange-rate volatility. Overall, time-series properties differ across series and regimes, with the Balkans most susceptible to spillovers between exchange-rate and inflation volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important economic power globally as well as within Asia, Japan is susceptible to fluctuations in the yen versus both the dollar and its neighbours’ currencies. The resulting risk, from both sources, might, therefore, have important effects on Japanese trade. This study incorporates third-country exchange rate volatility (both yen-renminbi and dollar-renminbi) into a reduced form trade model for industry trade between the US and Japan. As was the case with a previous study that did not include these effects, our cointegration analysis finds that most industries are unaffected by risk. Third-country effects are, however, significant in a number of cases. Interestingly, a large share of US industries find that exports increase due to third-country risk, suggesting that this volatility is encouraging traders to reorient their trade markets by substitution. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Over the past decade, many papers have studied the effects of exchange-rate volatility on international trade, particularly at the bilateral level for large numbers of individual industries. This is necessary because the underlying theory is ambiguous and because earlier papers failed to uncover significant results at a higher degree of aggregation. This paper examines the case of Japan and Thailand over the period from 1970 to 2010. We find that slightly more than half of 117 export industries and 54 import industries are affected by volatility in the short run. In the long run, 6 export and 2 import industries are affected positively, and 22 export and 9 import industries are affected negatively. Small Japanese export industries are more likely to be negatively affected, while imports show no differences regarding industry size. In a sectoral analysis, we find some evidence that Japanese exports of manufactures and certain machinery and transport equipment might be relatively more affected by the exchange-rate risk. Raw material imports are least affected. These findings therefore suggest which industries might benefit most by a policy promoting a stable yen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the world's most important exporters, Korea might find volatility in the won to be detrimental to trade. But, since previous studies - as well as economic theory - suggest that the impact of exchange-rate risk on individual countries trade flows can be ambiguous, each case must be tested empirically. This study does, examining 148 Korean export industries and 144 import industries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. We find that in the long run, twenty export industries respond negatively to exchange-rate risk, while twelve respond positively. For imports, however, eight have negative coefficients and fourteen have positive ones. The majority of industries are unaffected. Small Korean exporters are particularly vulnerable to exchange-rate risk, as are two large export industries. Imports in the Machinery and transport equipment sector, particularly automobiles, are most likely to see a decrease in the overall trade balance due to increased risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange-rate risk is often thought to reduce international trade flows, but numerous theoretical and empirical analyses have pointed toward positive as well as negative effects. This is particularly true when bilateral trade flows for individual industries are estimated. In this study, we extend the literature to the case of Japanese trade with China for 110 import industries and 95 export industries. Aggregate Japanese exports, but not imports, respond to real exchange rate volatility in the long run, while most individual export and import industries respond in the short run. Although many individual Japanese import industries are affected in the long run by risk, mostly negatively, this is even more the case for exporters. A larger proportion of Japanese export industries are affected by exchange rate uncertainty for most industry sectors. Manufacturing exports are particularly vulnerable to this risk, with a large share responding negatively to increased volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though numerous empirical studies have investigated the effects of the post-Bretton Woods increase in exchange-rate volatility, they have not reached a consensus whether this uncertainty universally reduces trade flows. As a result, recent studies have employed industry-level data to further isolate the causes of these ambiguous results. In this study, we investigate U.S. trade with South Korea, both at the bilateral level and for 96 U.S. export and 29 U.S. import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects on most industries' exports and imports. In the long run, however, only 16 exporting industries and seven importing industries are affected by volatility (some positively and some negatively). Most affected industries are small, as measured by their trade share. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- Since the introduction of the concepts of the J- and S-curves, many researchers have tried to verify their validity empirically. This paper aims to review the related papers and to offer direction for future research. Design methodology approach -- This is a review paper. As such, no method is employed here. Rather, the methodologies used by others to test the J- and S-curves are explained and reviewed. Findings -- No new findings are offered since this is a review paper. Practical implications -- The J- and S-curves show whether currency depreciation worsens the trade balance first before improving it. Since the majority of studies are country-specific, policymakers could benefit by learning whether currency depreciation will be effective in improving the trade balance. Originality value -- This is a literature review paper and its originality is in terms of collecting the literature together and presenting it in one single paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many less developed countries have currency controls, which can lead to black-market trade and cause distortions in the exchange market. We test the flexible-price monetary model for 25 less developed countries, using both official and black-market exchange rates. We find that the model is supported in the long run, particularly when black-market rates are used. Measuring the speed of convergence to equilibrium, we find that it is often higher in the black-market specification, implying greater efficiency. This could offer justification for exchange-rate unification, particularly in Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - Since the last review article by McKenzie, the literature has experienced a surge in the number of empirical articles. These new contributions, coupled with those that were overlooked by McKenzie, set the stage for this review. Many of the recent studies have been empirical in nature and these deserve specific attention. Thus, this paper aims to survey and review all of the studies by paying attention to the attributes outlined in the text. Design/methodology/approach - This paper examines the vast empirical literature, up to 2005, to assess the main trends in modeling and estimating these trade flows at the aggregate, bilateral, and sectoral levels. Findings - The increase in exchange-rate volatility since 1973 has had indeterminate effects on international export and import flows. Although it can be assumed that an increase in risk may lead to a reduction in economic activity, the theoretical literature provides justifications for positive or insignificant effects as well. Similar results have been found in empirical tests. While modeling techniques have evolved over time to incorporate new developments in econometric analysis, no single measure of exchange-rate volatility has dominated the literature. Originality/value - An argument put forward by the opponents of the floating exchange rates is that such rates introduce uncertainty into the foreign exchange market, which could deter trade flows. However, a theoretical argument is put forward by some to show that uncertainty could also boost trade flows if traders increase their trade volume to offset any decrease in future revenue due to exchange rate volatility. The empirical literature reviewed in this paper supports both views. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]