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Highlights • The agent-based model was created using the basic knowledge of gust, wind, and tree. • The Agent-based model demonstrated wind damage similar to the observed damage in forests. • The model described damage propagation and forest edge effects. • The model showed some phenomena, which were similar to the previous research. • Possibilities of improving the agent-based model were discusses. Abstract Powerful storms, consisting of strong gusts and winds, damage forests. Therefore, foresters need forest management strategies to reduce the damage risk. This paper focused on the damage patterns within the forest as the final results of multiple tree-wind dynamic interactions in time and space during a storm. Recent developments in computer technology allow for the possibility of simulating the complex and dynamic phenomena of damage during a storm but are extremely time consuming. To simplify the simulations without losing the crucial aspects of wind damage in forests, we introduced a computer simulation model using the agent-based modelling (ABM) technique, which capture the phenomena and interactions of individuals called 'agents'. We created an ABM for forest wind damage simulation, coupling together an accepted understanding of wind gusts in forests, tree bending moments, and damage propagation. The model was tested with variations in three conditions: trees acclimated and unacclimated to their wind environment; three levels of gust strength; and three tree planting densities. The ABM was able to replicate damage patterns and demonstrate damage propagation within the forest and the effects of forest edges. The difference in the rate of damage in the forest between acclimated and unacclimated edges became similar with an increase in the gust intensity, and a decrease in tree density through a reduction in the shelter effect of the forest. The ABM could be improved in the future by parametrizing the variation in individual tree resistance, and the variation in gust and wind strength, as well as adding more information on local environmental conditions such as topography and soil variation, and storm characteristics such as duration and intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (Forest GALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine ( Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model ( cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the Forest GALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Wind is the dominant agent of damage in forests in Western Europe. Traditional wind-damage models calculate a probability for damage or a critical wind speed at which damage occurs. However, in a dynamic vegetation model actual damage to stands and individual trees is needed to get a dynamical progression of the vegetation. We present a prototype for a new approach to modelling forest wind damage at the regional scale, which we incorporate within a dynamic vegetation model. The approach is based on knowledge from both empirical and mechanical models and calculates the damaged fraction of a cohort based on wind load and a sensitivity that depends on the current physical state and history of the cohort in relation to the ecosystem. The modelling concept has been developed, calibrated and evaluated for Swedish conditions but can be applicable to other similar areas with minor modification. Because of the stochastic nature of local wind load and the difficulty of describing the stand-level exposure, the ability to explain observed damage at stand level was low. Regional level variation in damage, which more depends on the wind load, was however explained reasonably well (R 2 =0.43). We suggest that this is a useful concept for evaluating alternatives of forest management under different climate scenarios in the process of adaptation to future storm-damage risks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Wind throw is an important risk factor in forest management in North-western Europe. In recent years, mechanistic models have been developed to estimate critical wind speeds needed to break or uproot the average tree of a forest stand. Based on these models, we developed a wind damage module for the individual tree model ForGEM (Forest Genetics, Ecology and Management). For a given wind speed this module assesses the forces on each individual tree, based on the tree dimensions, and support and sheltering provided by other trees. Due to this individual approach, irregular stands can also be assessed. The module is demonstrated on Douglas fir stands (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) of different densities in the Netherlands. Patterns of damage are explained, both in freshly exposed stands as well as in sheltered stands. Wind speeds needed to cause damage approximated those of known wind throw events. The wind damage module proved to be very sensitive to simulated tree heights and diameters. Furthermore, the newly introduced support mechanism played an important role in the stability of trees and stands. Lower individual tree stability in dense stands was clearly compensated for by the support of other trees. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]