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The ways in which natural ecosystems respond to global change have become an urgent concern to society. Lakes play a pivotal role in ecosystem changes because of their central position within watersheds and their involvement in various endogenous and cross-system ecological and biogeochemical processes, leaving natural archives accumulated in sediments over time. However, how lake ecosystems have responded to atmospheric changes during the past few centuries is still not fully understood. To analyse the process in more detail, we conducted a case study at Lake Genco, a remote alpine on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and recovered a 170-year history of lake's ecosystem from a 210Pb-dated sediment core. The air temperature increased between 1900 and 1950 CE and 1980 and 2020 CE. Geochemical and physical proxies (magnetic susceptibility, Sr/Ba, K/Al, Na/Al, Ti, Pb, P flux, TN and δ15N org) indicated greater degrees of weathering and erosion, and higher nutrient loadings as terrestrial systems responded to atmospheric changes after 1900 CE. Higher primary aquatic productivity, richer biodiversity and weaker structural stability were found in Lake Genco between 1852 and 2017 CE, although the ecological response was quiet in terms of the compositional change in the diatom community, which was generally dominated by small planktonic Cyclotella ocellata. During warmer periods, diatom PC1 changed directionally due to the overall increase in the abundance of tychoplanktonic Fragilaria construens and periphytic Achnanthes minutissima and the decreasing abundance (∼10%) of C. ocellata. This study provides empirical evidence that ecological changes in remote lakes rely on interactions between the atmosphere and the landscape and helps us to understand the complexity of the various impacts of global climate change. More local and regional studies are needed to generalise the mechanism of biological responses to atmospheric changes in remote lakes, especially in the QTP. • Remote lake ecosystems' responses to climate change have been a key concern in the global warming context. • Modest ecological changes were revealed over the past 170 years in a small high-altitude lake of the southeast Tibetan Plateau. • The relative abundance of planktonic Cyclotella ocellata decreased while primary productivity and biodiversity increased. • Lake surface area may have determined the local ecological response of lakes to atmospheric changes in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global environmental change presents a clear need for improved leading indicators of critical transitions, especially those that can be generated from compositional data and that work in empirical cases. Ecological theory of community dynamics under environmental forcing predicts an early replacement of slowly replicating and weakly competitive 'canary' species by slowly replicating but strongly competitive 'keystone' species. Further forcing leads to the eventual collapse of the keystone species as they are replaced by weakly competitive but fast-replicating 'weedy' species in a critical transition to a significantly different state. We identify a diagnostic signal of these changes in the coefficients of a correlation between compositional disorder and biodiversity. Compositional disorder measures unpredictability in the composition of a community, while biodiversity measures the amount of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi-decadal time series of fossil diatom and chironomid communities from lakes in China. The characteristic switch from positive to negative correlation coefficients occurs for both communities up to three decades preceding a critical transition to a sustained alternate state. This signal is robust to unequal time increments that beset the identification of early-warning signals from other metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]