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Background: As populations age, frailty and the associated demand for health care increase. Evidence needed to inform planning and commissioning of services for older people living with frailty is scarce. Accurate information on incidence and prevalence of different levels of frailty and the consequences for health outcomes, service use and costs at population level is needed., Objectives: To explore the incidence, prevalence, progression and impact of frailty within an ageing general practice population and model the dynamics of frailty-related healthcare demand, outcomes and costs, to inform the development of guidelines and tools to facilitate commissioning and service development., Study Design and Methods: A retrospective observational study with statistical modelling to inform simulation (system dynamics) modelling using routine data from primary and secondary health care in England and Wales. Modelling was informed by stakeholder engagement events conducted in Hampshire, England. Data sources included the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre databank, and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Population prevalence, incidence and progression of frailty within an ageing cohort were estimated using the electronic Frailty Index tool, and associated service use and costs were calculated. Association of frailty with outcomes, service use and costs was explored with multistate and generalised linear models. Results informed development of a prototype system dynamics simulation model, exploring population impact of frailty and future scenarios over a 10-year time frame. Simulation model population projections were externally validated against retrospective data from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage., Study Population: The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sample comprised an open cohort of the primary care population aged 50 + between 2006 and 2017 (approx. 2.1 million people). Data were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics death data. A comparable validation data set from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage was generated., Baseline Measures: Electronic Frailty Index score calculated annually and stratified into Fit, Mild, Moderate and Severe frailty categories. Other variables included age, sex, Index of Multiple Deprivation score, ethnicity and Urban/rural., Outcomes: Frailty transitions, mortality, hospitalisations, emergency department attendances, general practitioner visits and costs., Findings: Frailty is already present in people aged 50-64. Frailty incidence was 47 cases per 1000 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5% (2006) to 38.9% (2017). Older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban location independently predict frailty onset and progression; 4.8% of 'fit' people aged 50-64 years experienced a transition to a higher frailty state in a year, compared to 21.4% aged 75-84. Individual healthcare use rises with frailty severity, but Mild and Moderate frailty groups have higher overall costs due to larger population numbers. Simulation projections indicate frailty will increase by 7.1%, from 41.5% to 48.7% between 2017 and 2027, and associated costs will rise by £5.8 billion (in England) over an 11-year period., Conclusions: Simulation modelling indicates that frailty prevalence and associated service use and costs will continue to rise in the future. Scenario analysis indicates reduction of incidence and slowing of progression, particularly before the age of 65, has potential to substantially reduce future service use and costs, but reducing unplanned admissions in frail older people has a more modest impact. Study outputs will be collated into a commissioning toolkit, comprising guidance on drivers of frailty-related demand and simulation model outputs., Study Registration: This study is registered as NCT04139278 www.clinicaltrials.gov., Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 16/116/43) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research ; Vol. 12, No. 44. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Background: Frailty becomes more prevalent and healthcare needs increase with age. Information on the impact of frailty on population level use of health services and associated costs is needed to plan for ageing populations., Aim: To describe primary and secondary care service use and associated costs by electronic Frailty Index (eFI) category., Design and Setting: Retrospective cohort using electronic health records. Participants aged ≥50 registered in primary care practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 2006-2017., Methods: Primary and secondary care use (totals and means) were stratified by eFI category and age group. Standardised 2017 costs were used to calculate primary, secondary and overall costs. Generalised linear models explored associations between frailty, sociodemographic characteristics. Adjusted mean costs and cost ratios were produced., Results: Individual mean annual use of primary and secondary care services increased with increasing frailty severity. Overall cohort care costs for were highest in mild frailty in all 12 years, followed by moderate and severe, although the proportion of the population with severe frailty can be expected to increase over time. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, compared to the fit category, individual annual costs doubled in mild frailty, tripled in moderate and quadrupled in severe., Conclusions: Increasing levels of frailty are associated with an additional burden of individual service use. However, individuals with mild and moderate frailty contribute to higher overall costs. Earlier intervention may have the most potential to reduce service use and costs at population level., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.)

Introduction: frailty is common in older adults and is associated with increased health and social care use. Longitudinal information is needed on population-level incidence, prevalence and frailty progression to plan services to meet future population needs., Methods: retrospective open cohort study using electronic health records of adults aged ≥50 from primary care in England, 2006-2017. Frailty was calculated annually using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI). Multistate models estimated transition rates between each frailty category, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Prevalence overall for each eFI category (fit, mild, moderate and severe) was calculated., Results: the cohort included 2,171,497 patients and 15,514,734 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5 (2006) to 38.9% (2017). The average age of frailty onset was 69; however, 10.8% of people aged 50-64 were already frail in 2006. Estimated transitions from fit to any level of frailty were 48/1,000 person-years aged 50-64, 130/1,000 person-years aged 65-74, 214/1,000 person-years aged 75-84 and 380/1,000 person-years aged ≥ 85. Transitions were independently associated with older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban dwelling. Mean time spent in each frailty category decreased with age, with the longest period spent in severe frailty at all ages., Conclusions: frailty is prevalent in adults aged ≥50 and time spent in successive frailty states is longer as frailty progresses, resulting in extended healthcare burden. Larger population numbers and fewer transitions in adults aged 50-64 present an opportunity for earlier identification and intervention. A large increase in frailty over 12 years highlights the urgency of informed service planning in ageing populations., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Frailty is a common condition in older adults and has a major impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information on the prevalence in middle-aged adults and the patterns of progression of frailty at an individual and population level is scarce. To address this, a cohort was defined from a large primary care database in England to describe the epidemiology of frailty and understand the dynamics of frailty within individuals and across the population. This article describes the structure of the dataset, cohort characteristics and planned analyses., Methods: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records. Participants were aged ≥50 years registered in practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre between 2006 to 2017. Data include GP practice details, patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, twice-yearly electronic Frailty Index (eFI), deaths, medication use and primary and secondary care health service use. Participants in each cohort year by age group, GP and patient characteristics at cohort entry are described., Results: The cohort includes 2,177,656 patients, contributing 15,552,946 person-years, registered at 419 primary care practices in England. The mean age was 61 years, 52.1% of the cohort was female, and 77.6% lived in urban environments. Frailty increased with age, affecting 10% of adults aged 50-64 and 43.7% of adults aged ≥65. The prevalence of long-term conditions and specific frailty deficits increased with age, as did the eFI and the severity of frailty categories., Conclusion: A comprehensive understanding of frailty dynamics will inform predictions of current and future care needs to facilitate timely planning of appropriate interventions, service configurations and workforce requirements. Analysis of this large, nationally representative cohort including participants aged ≥50 will capture earlier transitions to frailty and enable a detailed understanding of progression and impact. These results will inform novel simulation models which predict future health and service needs of older people living with frailty., Study Registration: Registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov October 25th 2019, NCT04139278 ., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Dementia is common in older adults assessed by ambulance services. However, inconsistent reporting via the patient record may result in this diagnosis being overlooked by healthcare staff further down the care pathway. This can have a deleterious effect on subsequent patient care, increasing morbidity and mortality. We sought to understand how and where ambulance staff would like to record this finding on the electronic patient record (ePR). Methods: We designed and implemented a survey of ambulance staff in a single service to understand how they identify patients with dementia, how they record dementia on the ePR and how the ePR could be improved to better capture dementia. Scoping questions on frailty were included. The survey was tested using cognitive interviewing. Analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics for closed questions and thematic analysis for open questions as appropriate. Results: 131 surveys were completed; 60% of participants were paramedics and 40% were other grades of front line staff. Participants reported consulting electronic/paper sources, and individuals such as carers involved in the patients' care, to establish whether dementia had been diagnosed. Frailty assessments were prompted by social context, reduced mobility, a fall or diagnosis of dementia. Staff reported documenting dementia in 20 different areas on the ePR and 46% of participants stated a preference for a designated area to record the information. However, 15% indicated it was not necessary to record dementia or that no ePR changes were required. Conclusions: We have highlighted the variation in ambulance staff practice in recording of dementia. Alterations to the ePR are required to ensure that dementia is recorded consistently and is easily retrievable. Clearer guidance on when to assess frailty may also enhance information provision to care staff in other sectors, resulting in more appropriate clinical and social care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]