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Although groundwater exchange processes are known to modulate atmospheric influences on stream temperature and flow, the implications for ecological stability are poorly understood. Here, we evaluated temporal change in stream fish communities across a gradient of groundwater influence defined by karst terrain (carbonate parent materials) within the Potomac River basin of eastern North America. We surveyed 12 sites in 2022 that had been sampled 29–30 years previously with similar methods. We also collected stream temperature data from each site and used the regression slope of the air‐water temperature relationship to index stream thermal sensitivity and groundwater exchange processes. Sites in karst terrain exhibited strong groundwater controls on stream temperature, and fish communities were more stable over time in these locations than elsewhere. However, stream thermal sensitivity was a stronger predictor of species persistence than the spatial distribution of karst terrain in contributing areas, highlighting the ecological importance of local variation in groundwater discharge processes. The presence of calcium precipitates (marl) in stream substrates was associated with low thermal sensitivity and ecological stability over time, and we suggest such visible features may be a useful indicator of climate change refugia in stream ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life history theory provides a framework to understand environmental change based on species traits that capitalize on stable, predictable, or stochastic environmental conditions. We evaluated life history strategies and temporal trends in abundance from 1975 to 2017 for 28 fish species within the Potomac River of eastern North America. Multivariate analysis identified life history strategies defined by small-bodied species with extended spawning seasons and early maturation (opportunistic strategists), large-bodied species with delayed maturation and long lifespans (periodic strategists), and intermediatesized species exhibiting parental care (equilibrium strategists). Linear mixed models detected temporal trends in abundance for 13 species (46%), of which nine increased and four decreased over time. Increasing species were characterized by opportunistic life history strategies (e.g., banded killifish, Fundulus diaphanous; mosquito fish, Gambusia holbrooki), whereas decreasing species were characterized by periodic or equilibrium strategies (e.g., smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu; river chub, Nocomis micropogon). Recent introductions can account for temporal increases in some cases, but most increasing species are native to the study area. Observed increases in opportunistic native species and decreases in periodic and equilibrium species indicate that environmental conditions have become less stable and less predictable over time, consistent with observed increases in spring peak flows in the study area. Our study indicates the importance of environmental stochasticity for fish community responses to land use and climate change and demonstrates the utility of life history theory in this regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]