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Radiation air dose rates near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) have been steadily decreasing over the past eight years since the release of radioactive elements in March 2011. Currently, the radiation monitoring program is expected to transition to long-term monitoring after most of the remediation activities are completed. The main long-term monitoring objectives are to (1) confirm the continuing reduction of contaminant and hazard levels, (2) provide assurance for the public, (3) accumulate the basic datasets for scientific knowledge and future preparation, and (4) detect changes or anomalies in contaminant mobility (if they occur), or any unexpected processes or events. In this work, we have developed a methodology for optimizing the monitoring locations of radiation air dose-rate monitoring. Our approach consists of three steps in order to determine monitoring locations in a systematic manner: (1) prioritizing the critical locations, such as schools or regulatory requirement locations, (2) diversifying locations that cover the key environmental controls that are known to influence contaminant mobility and distributions, and (3) capturing the heterogeneity of radiation air-dose rates across the domain. For the second step, we use a Gaussian mixture model to identify the representative locations among multiple environmental variables, such as elevation and land-cover types. For the third step, we use a Gaussian process model to capture and estimate the heterogeneity of air-dose rates across the domain. Employing an integrated dose-rate map derived from Bayesian geostatistical methods as a reference map, we distribute the monitoring locations in such a way as to capture the heterogeneity of the reference map. Our results have shown that this approach allows us to select monitoring locations in a systematic manner such that the heterogeneity of air dose rates is captured by the minimal number of monitoring locations.

Distribution maps of air dose rates around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant were constructed using the results of measurement obtained from approximately 6500 locations (at most) per measurement period. The measurements were conducted 1 m above the ground using survey meters in flat and spatially open locations. Spatial distribution and temporal change of the air dose rate in the area were revealed by examining the resultant distribution maps. The observed reduction rate of the air dose rate over the 18 months between June 2011 and December 2012 was greater than that calculated from radioactive decay of radiocesium by 10% in relative percentage except decontaminated sites. This 10% difference in the reduction of the air dose rate can be explained by the mobility of radiocesium in the depth direction. In the region where the air dose rate was lower than 0.25 μSv h −1 on June 2011, the reduction of the air dose rate was observed to be smaller than that of the other dose rate regions, and it was in fact smaller than the reduction rate caused by radioactive decay alone. In contrast, the reduction rate was larger in regions with higher air dose rates. In flat and spatially open locations, no significant difference in the reduction tendency of air dose rates was observed among different land use classifications (rice fields, farmland, forests, and building sites). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]