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Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses 1 . The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset 2-5 . Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed.

A wealth of analysis tools are available to fMRI researchers in order to extract patterns of task variation and, ultimately, understand cognitive function. However, this "methodological plurality" comes with a drawback. While conceptually similar, two different analysis pipelines applied on the same dataset may not produce the same scientific results. Differences in methods, implementations across software, and even operating systems or software versions all contribute to this variability. Consequently, attention in the field has recently been directed to reproducibility and data sharing. In this work, our goal is to understand how choice of software package impacts on analysis results. We use publicly shared data from three published task fMRI neuroimaging studies, reanalyzing each study using the three main neuroimaging software packages, AFNI, FSL, and SPM, using parametric and nonparametric inference. We obtain all information on how to process, analyse, and model each dataset from the publications. We make quantitative and qualitative comparisons between our replications to gauge the scale of variability in our results and assess the fundamental differences between each software package. Qualitatively we find similarities between packages, backed up by Neurosynth association analyses that correlate similar words and phrases to all three software package's unthresholded results for each of the studies we reanalyse. However, we also discover marked differences, such as Dice similarity coefficients ranging from 0.000 to 0.684 in comparisons of thresholded statistic maps between software. We discuss the challenges involved in trying to reanalyse the published studies, and highlight our efforts to make this research reproducible., (© 2019 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)