Search

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

We propose a heuristic learning method forecasting future performance of stock market indices based on high-order fuzzy-trend jump rules generated from historical training data. Firstly, the training time series (TSs) are fuzzified by equal intervals referencing to the whole mean differences of historical training data. Then, it generates the groups of nth-order fuzzy logical relationships (FLRs). With the knowledge of the generated relationship groups, it summarizes the probability of the jumps of the nth-order “down”, “equal” and “up” trend rules, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the nth-order FLRs and the probabilities of their corresponding jump rules. To evaluate the outcome of the presented model with the performances of the others, we use the presented model to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) dataset. The outcomes show that the presented model outperforms the other models using single factor and point-wise one-step ahead forecasts. Moreover, it is easily to realize by software computing without artificial participation and can be extended to deal with multiple years of dataset. We use this model to predict Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI) as well to analyze its effectiveness and universality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neutrosophic sets are powerful logics designed to facilitate understanding of indeterminate and inconsistent information; many types of incomplete or complete information can be expressed as interval valued neutrosophic sets (IVNSs). This paper proposes improved aggregation operation rules for IVNSs, and extends the generalized weighted aggregation (GWA) operator to work congruently with IVNS data. The aggregated results are also expressed as IVNSs, which are characterized by truth-membership degree, indeterminacy-membership degree, and falsity-membership degree. The proposed method is proved to be the maximum approximation to the original data, and maintains most of the information during data processing. Then, a method is proposed to determine the ranking orders for all alternatives according to their comparative advantage matrices based on their general score, degree of accuracy and degree of certainty expressed by the aggregated IVNSs. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most existing high-order prediction models abstract logical rules that are based on historical discrete states without considering historical inconsistency and fluctuation trends. In fact, these two characteristics are important for describing historical fluctuations. This paper proposes a model based on logical rules abstracted from historical dynamic fluctuation trends and the corresponding inconsistencies. In the logical rule training stage, the dynamic trend states of up and down are mapped to the two dimensions of truth-membership and false-membership of neutrosophic sets, respectively. Meanwhile, information entropy is employed to quantify the inconsistency of a period of history, which is mapped to the indeterminercy-membership of the neutrosophic sets. In the forecasting stage, the similarities among the neutrosophic sets are employed to locate the most similar left side of the logical relationship. Therefore, the two characteristics of the fluctuation trends and inconsistency assist with the future forecasting. The proposed model extends existing high-order fuzzy logical relationships (FLRs) to neutrosophic logical relationships (NLRs). When compared with traditional discrete high-order FLRs, the proposed NLRs have higher generality and handle the problem caused by the lack of rules. The proposed method is then implemented to forecast Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and Heng Seng Index. The experimental conclusions indicate that the model has stable prediction ability for different data sets. Simultaneously, comparing the prediction error with other approaches also proves that the model has outstanding prediction accuracy and universality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Making predictions according to historical values has long been regarded as common practice by many researchers. However, forecasting solely based on historical values could lead to inevitable over-complexity and uncertainty due to the uncertainties inside, and the random influence outside, of the data. Consequently, finding the inherent rules and patterns of a time series by eliminating disturbances without losing important details has long been a research hotspot. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting model based on multi-valued neutrosophic sets to find fluctuation rules and patterns of a time series. The contributions of the proposed model are: (1) using a multi-valued neutrosophic set (MVNS) to describe the fluctuation patterns of a time series, the model could represent the fluctuation trend of up, equal, and down with degrees of truth, indeterminacy, and falsity which significantly preserve details of the historical values; (2) measuring the similarities of different fluctuation patterns by the Hamming distance could avoid the confusion caused by incomplete information from limited samples; and (3) introducing another related time series as a secondary factor to avoid warp and deviation in inferring inherent rules of historical values, which could lead to more comprehensive rules for further forecasting. To evaluate the performance of the model, we explored the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) as the major factor we forecast, and the Dow Jones Index as the secondary factor to facilitate the predicting of the TAIEX. To show the universality of the model, we applied the proposed model to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI) as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]