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Bayesian disease mapping, yet if undeniably useful to describe variation in risk over time and space, comes with the hurdle of prior elicitation on hard-to-interpret random effect precision parameters. We introduce a reparametrized version of the popular spatio-temporal interaction models, based on Kronecker product intrinsic Gaussian Markov random fields, that we name the variance partitioning model. The variance partitioning model includes a mixing parameter that balances the contribution of the main and interaction effects to the total (generalized) variance and enhances interpretability. The use of a penalized complexity prior on the mixing parameter aids in coding prior information in an intuitive way. We illustrate the advantages of the variance partitioning model using two case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In this note we discuss (Gaussian) intrinsic conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for disconnected graphs, with the aim of providing practical guidelines for how these models should be defined, scaled and implemented. We show how these suggestions can be implemented in two examples, on disease mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian penalized splines (P-splines) assume an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field prior on the spline coefficients, conditional on a precision hyper-parameter τ. Prior elicitation of τ is difficult. To overcome this issue, we aim to building priors on an interpretable property of the model, indicating the complexity of the smooth function to be estimated. Following this idea, we propose penalized complexity (PC) priors for the number of effective degrees of freedom. We present the general ideas behind the construction of these new PC priors, describe their properties and show how to implement them in P-splines for Gaussian data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stationary spatial model is an idealization and we expect that the true dependence structures of physical phenomena are spatially varying, but how should we handle this non-stationarity in practice? We study the challenges involved in applying a flexible non-stationary model to a dataset of annual precipitation in the conterminous US, where exploratory data analysis shows strong evidence of a non-stationary covariance structure. The aim of this paper is to investigate the modelling pipeline once non-stationarity has been detected in spatial data. We show that there is a real danger of over-fitting the model and that careful modelling is necessary in order to properly account for varying second-order structure. In fact, the example shows that sometimes non-stationary Gaussian random fields are not necessary to model non-stationary spatial data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gaussian processes and random fields have a long history, covering multiple approaches to representing spatial and spatio-temporal dependence structures, such as covariance functions, spectral representations, reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, and graph based models. This article describes how the stochastic partial differential equation approach to generalising Matérn covariance models via Hilbert space projections connects with several of these approaches, with each connection being useful in different situations. In addition to an overview of the main ideas, some important extensions, theory, applications, and other recent developments are discussed. The methods include both Markovian and non-Markovian models, non-Gaussian random fields, non-stationary fields and space–time fields on arbitrary manifolds, and practical computational considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are frequently used as computationally efficient models in spatial statistics. Unfortunately, it has traditionally been difficult to link GMRFs with the more traditional Gaussian random field models, as the Markov property is difficult to deploy in continuous space. Following the pioneering work of , we expound on the link between Markovian Gaussian random fields and GMRFs. In particular, we discuss the theoretical and practical aspects of fast computation with continuously specified Markovian Gaussian random fields, as well as the clear advantages they offer in terms of clear, parsimonious, and interpretable models of anisotropy and non-stationarity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary. Continuously indexed Gaussian fields (GFs) are the most important ingredient in spatial statistical modelling and geostatistics. The specification through the covariance function gives an intuitive interpretation of the field properties. On the computational side, GFs are hampered with the big n problem, since the cost of factorizing dense matrices is cubic in the dimension. Although computational power today is at an all time high, this fact seems still to be a computational bottleneck in many applications. Along with GFs, there is the class of Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) which are discretely indexed. The Markov property makes the precision matrix involved sparse, which enables the use of numerical algorithms for sparse matrices, that for fields in only use the square root of the time required by general algorithms. The specification of a GMRF is through its full conditional distributions but its marginal properties are not transparent in such a parameterization. We show that, using an approximate stochastic weak solution to (linear) stochastic partial differential equations, we can, for some GFs in the Matérn class, provide an explicit link, for any triangulation of , between GFs and GMRFs, formulated as a basis function representation. The consequence is that we can take the best from the two worlds and do the modelling by using GFs but do the computations by using GMRFs. Perhaps more importantly, our approach generalizes to other covariance functions generated by SPDEs, including oscillating and non-stationary GFs, as well as GFs on manifolds. We illustrate our approach by analysing global temperature data with a non-stationary model defined on a sphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many commonly used models in statistics can be formulated as (Bayesian) hierarchical Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models. These are characterised by assuming a (often large) GMRF as the second stage in the hierarchical structure and a few hyperparameters at the third stage. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the common approach for Bayesian inference in such models. The variance of the Monte Carlo estimates is where M is the number of samples in the chain so, in order to obtain precise estimates of marginal densities, say, we need M to be very large. Inspired by the fact that often one-block and independence samplers can be constructed for hierarchical GMRF-models, we will in this work investigate whether MCMC is really needed to estimate marginal densities, which often is the goal of the analysis. By making use of GMRF-approximations, we show by typical examples that marginal densities can indeed be very precisely estimated by deterministic schemes. The methodological and practical consequence of these findings are indeed positive. We conjecture that for many hierarchical GMRF-models there is really no need for MCMC based inference to estimate marginal densities. Further, by making use of numerical methods for sparse matrices the computational costs of these deterministic schemes are nearly instant compared to the MCMC alternative. In particular, we discuss in detail the issue of computing marginal variances for GMRFs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We consider the problem of obtaining interval estimates of vessel areas from ultrasound images of cross sections through the carotid artery. Robust and automatic estimates of the cross sectional area is of medical interest and of help in diagnosing atherosclerosis, which is caused by plaque deposits in the carotid artery. We approach this problem by using a deformable template to model the blood vessel outline, and use recent developments in ultrasound science to model the likelihood. We demonstrate that by using an explicit model for the outline, we can easily adjust for an important feature in the data: strong edge reflections called specular reflection. The posterior is challenging to explore, and naive standard MCMC algorithms simply converge too slowly. To obtain an efficient MCMC algorithm we make extensive use of computational efficient Gaussian Markov random fields, and use various block sampling constructions that jointly update large parts of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference is an efficient approach to estimate the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters and latent effects of Bayesian hierarchical models that can be expressed as latent Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF). The representation as a GMRF allows the associated software R-INLA to estimate the posterior marginals in a fraction of the time as typical Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. INLA can be extended by means of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to increase the number of models that it can fit to conditional latent GMRF. In this paper, we review the use of BMA with INLA and propose a new example on spatial econometrics models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically‐sized datasets from scratch is time‐consuming, and if changes are made to the model, there is little guarantee that the code performs well. The key advantages of R‐INLA are the ease with which complex models can be created and modified, without the need to write complex code, and the speed at which inference can be done even for spatial problems with hundreds of thousands of observations. R‐INLA handles latent Gaussian models, where fixed effects, structured and unstructured Gaussian random effects are combined linearly in a linear predictor, and the elements of the linear predictor are observed through one or more likelihoods. The structured random effects can be both standard areal model such as the Besag and the BYM models, and geostatistical models from a subset of the Matérn Gaussian random fields. In this review, we discuss the large success of spatial modeling with R‐INLA and the types of spatial models that can be fitted, we give an overview of recent developments for areal models, and we give an overview of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach and some of the ways it can be extended beyond the assumptions of isotropy and separability. In particular, we describe how slight changes to the SPDE approach leads to straight‐forward approaches for nonstationary spatial models and nonseparable space–time models. This article is categorized under: Statistical and Graphical Methods of Data Analysis > Bayesian Methods and TheoryStatistical Models > Bayesian ModelsData: Types and Structure > Massive Data In spatial statistics, an important problem is how to represent spatial models in a way that is computationally efficient, accurate, and convenient to use. Models in R‐INLA focus on sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrices to compute inference quickly. Hence, our implementations of spatial models focus on how to represent the spatial field in such a way that the precision matrix for the "representation" is very sparse. This graphic shows a representation of a Norwegian fjord with a mesh, from which basis functions are built in the finite element method. We use sums of these basis functions to represent the spatial field. This representation has many advantages, but requires some mathematical effort to understand and to set up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]