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Although much has been done to elucidate the biochemistry of signal transduction and gene regulatory pathways, it remains difficult to understand or predict quantitative responses. We integrate single-cell experiments with stochastic analyses, to identify predictive models of transcriptional dynamics for the osmotic stress response pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We generate models with varying complexity and use parameter estimation and cross-validation analyses to select the most predictive model. This model yields insight into several dynamical features, including multistep regulation and switchlike activation for several osmosensitive genes. Furthermore, the model correctly predicts the transcriptional dynamics of cells in response to different environmental and genetic perturbations. Because our approach is general, it should facilitate a predictive understanding for signal-activated transcription of other genes in other pathways or organisms.

Heterochromatin renders domains of chromosomes transcriptionally silent and, due to clonal variation in its formation, can generate heritably distinct populations of genetically identical cells. Saccharomyces cerevisiae's Sir1 functions primarily in the establishment, but not the maintenance, of heterochromatic silencing at the HMR and HML loci. In several Saccharomyces species, we discovered multiple paralogs of Sir1, called Kos1-Kos4 (Kin of Sir1). The Kos and Sir1 proteins contributed partially overlapping functions to silencing of both cryptic mating loci in S. bayanus. Mutants of these paralogs reduced silencing at HML more than at HMR. Most genes of the SIR1 family were located near telomeres, and at least one paralog was regulated by telomere position effect. In S. cerevisiae, Sir1 is recruited to the silencers at HML and HMR via its ORC interacting region (OIR), which binds the bromo adjacent homology (BAH) domain of Orc1. Zygosaccharomyces rouxii, which diverged from Saccharomyces after the appearance of the silent mating cassettes, but before the whole-genome duplication, contained an ortholog of Kos3 that was apparently the archetypal member of the family, with only one OIR. In contrast, a duplication of this domain was present in all orthologs of Sir1, Kos1, Kos2, and Kos4. We propose that the functional specialization of Sir3, itself a paralog of Orc1, as a silencing protein was facilitated by the tandem duplication of the OIR domain in the Sir1 family, allowing distinct Sir1-Sir3 and Sir1-Orc1 interactions through OIR-BAH domain interactions.