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The Amundsen Sea sector has some of the fastest-thinning ice shelves in Antarctica, caused by high, ocean-driven basal melt rates, which can lead to increased ice streamflow, causing increased sea level rise (SLR) contributions. In this study, we present the results of a new synchronously coupled ice-sheet–ocean model of the Amundsen Sea sector. We use the Wavelet-based, Adaptive-grid, Vertically Integrated ice sheet model (WAVI) to solve for ice velocities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to solve for ice thickness and three-dimensional ocean properties, allowing for full mass conservation in the coupled ice–ocean system. The coupled model is initialised in the present day and run forward under idealised warm and cold ocean conditions with a fixed ice front. We find that Thwaites Glacier dominates the future SLR from the Amundsen Sea sector, with a SLR that evolves approximately quadratically over time. The future evolution of Thwaites Glacier depends on the lifespan of small pinning points that form during the retreat. The rate of melting around these pinning points provides the link between future ocean conditions and the SLR from this sector and will be difficult to capture without a coupled ice–ocean model. Grounding-line retreat leads to a progressively larger Thwaites Ice Shelf cavity, leading to a positive trend in total melting, resulting from the increased ice basal surface area. Despite these important sensitivities, Thwaites Glacier retreats even in a scenario with zero ocean-driven melting. This demonstrates that a tipping point may have been passed in these simulations and some SLR from this sector is now committed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into past and future polar and global environmental changes. Here we develop innovative water tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new detailed information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In the preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35 ∘ S, a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8–16.3 ∘ C, a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6 % –83.3 % , and a source 10 m wind velocity (vel10) range of 10.1 to 11.3 ms-1. These results are consistent with estimates from existing literature. Central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equatorward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways compared to coastal Antarctic precipitation. This has been attributed to a moist isentropic framework; i.e. poleward vapour transport tends to follow constant equivalent potential temperature. However, we find notable deviations from this tendency especially in the lower troposphere, likely due to radiative cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9 ∘ (300 km , averaged over Antarctica) more equatorward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equatorward moisture sources (by 2.4 ∘ , averaged over Antarctica) compared to precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source vel10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 ms-1 higher than annual mean vel10 at moisture source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. We quantified this dynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation. Overall, the innovative water tracing diagnostics enhance our understanding of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water stable isotopes recorded in Antarctic ice cores have traditionally been used to infer past surface air temperatures (SAT). During the historical period (1850 onward), observational data and good quality ice core records overlap, yielding an opportunity to investigate key relationships between ice core stable water isotope (δ18O) measurements and the Antarctic climate. We present a new ensemble of climate model simulations covering 1851–2004 using the UK Met Office HadCM3 general circulation model equipped with water stable isotopes. Our ensemble captures observed historical SAT and precipitation trends, and weak δ18O trends. The weak δ18O trends mean there is no significant relationship between SAT and δ18O over one third of Antarctica, and also half of our considered ice core sites, though relationships are stronger when using regional averages. The strongest regional relationships occur in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) region. This decoupling between SAT and δ18O occurs primarily because of the impact of autumnal sea ice loss during the simulated warming. The warming and sea ice loss is associated with: (i) changes in near-coastal air mass intrusions (synoptic effects) induced by changes in the large-scale circulation and/or sea ice; (ii) direct sea ice driven changes in moisture pathways (especially lengths) to Antarctica; and (iii) precipitation seasonality changes, again mostly driven by sea ice changes. Consequently when reconstructing temperatures over these timescales, changes in sea ice need to be considered; both to determine the most appropriate SAT and δ18O relationship, and to understand how uncertainties affect the inference of past temperature from ice cores δ18O measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a context of global warming and sea level rise acceleration, it is key to estimate the evolution of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and temperature in polar regions, which directly influence the surface mass balance of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. Direct observations are available from satellite data for the last 40 years and a few weather data since the 1950s in Antarctica. One of the best ways to access longer records is to use climate proxies in firn or ice cores. The water isotopic composition in these cores is widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations. We need to progress in our understanding of the influence of the atmospheric hydrological cycle on the water isotopic composition of ice cores. First, we present a 2-year-long time series of vapor and precipitation isotopic composition measurement at Dumont d'Urville Station, in Adélie Land. We characterize diurnal variations of meteorological parameters (temperature, atmospheric water mixing ratio (hereafter humidity) and δ18 O) for the different seasons and determine the evolution of key relationships (δ18 O versus temperature or humidity) throughout the year: we find that the temperature vs. δ18 O relationship is dependent on synoptic events dynamics in winter contrary to summer. Then, this data set is used to evaluate the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6-wiso (model version with embedded water stable isotopes) in a coastal region of Adélie Land where local conditions are controlled by strong katabatic winds which directly impact the isotopic signal. We show that a combination of continental (79 %) and oceanic (21 %) grid cells leads model outputs (temperature, humidity and δ18 O) to nicely fit the observations, at different timescales (i.e., seasonal to synoptic). Therefore we demonstrate the added value of long-term water vapor isotopic composition records for model evaluation. Then, as a clear link is found between the isotopic composition of water vapor and precipitation, we assess how isotopic models can help interpret short firn cores. In fact, a virtual firn core built from ECHAM-wiso outputs explains much more of the variability observed in S1C1 isotopic record than a virtual firn core built from temperature only. Yet, deposition and post-deposition effects strongly affect the firn isotopic signal and probably account for most of the remaining misfits between archived firn signal and virtual firn core based on atmospheric modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface mass balance (SMB) over the Antarctic Ice Sheet displays large temporal and spatial variations. Due to the complex Antarctic topography, modelling the climate at high resolution is crucial to accurately represent the dynamics of SMB. While ice core records provide a means to infer the SMB over centuries, the view is very spatially constrained. General circulation models (GCMs) estimate its spatial distribution over centuries, but with a resolution that is too coarse to capture the large variations due to local orographic effects. We have therefore explored a methodology to statistically downscale snowfall accumulation, the primary driver of SMB, from climate model historical simulations (1850-present day) over the coastal region of Dronning Maud Land. An analog method is set up over a period of 30 years with the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses (1979-2010 AD) and associated with snowfall daily accumulation forecasts from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3) at 5.5 km spatial resolution over Dronning Maud in East Antarctica. The same method is then applied to the period from 1850 to present day using an ensemble of ten members from the CESM2 model. This method enables to derive a spatial distribution of the accumulation of snowfall, the principal driver of the SMB variability over the region. A new dataset of daily and yearly snowfall accumulation based on this methodology is presented in this paper (MASS2ANT dataset, http://doi.org:10.5281/zenodo.4287517, Ghilain et al. (2021)), along with comparisons with ice core data and available spatial reconstructions. It offers a more detailed spatio-temporal view of the changes over the past 150 years compared to other available datasets, allowing a possible connection with the ice core records, and provides information that may be useful in identifying the large-scale patterns associated to the local precipitation conditions and their changes over the past century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hierarchy of general circulation models (GCMs) is used to investigate the linearity of the response of the climate system to changes in Antarctic topography. Experiments were conducted with a GCM with either a slab ocean or fixed SSTs and sea ice, in which the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) and coastal Antarctic topography were either lowered or raised in an idealized way. Additional experiments were conducted with a fully coupled GCM with topographic perturbations based on an ice-sheet model in which the WAIS collapses. The response over the continent is the same in all model configurations and is mostly linear. In contrast, the response has substantial nonlinear elements over the Southern Ocean that depend on the model configuration and are due to feedbacks with sea ice, ocean, and clouds. The atmosphere warms near the surface over much of the Southern Ocean and cools in the stratosphere over Antarctica, whether topography is raised or lowered. When topography is lowered, the Southern Ocean surface warming is due to strengthened southward atmospheric heat transport and associated enhanced storminess over the WAIS and the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean. When topography is raised, Southern Ocean warming is more limited and is associated with circulation anomalies. The response in the fully coupled experiments is generally consistent with the more idealized experiments, but the full-depth ocean warms throughout the water column whether topography is raised or lowered. These results indicate that ice sheet–climate system feedbacks differ depending on whether the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining or losing mass. Significance Statement: Throughout Earth's history, the Antarctic ice sheet was at times taller or shorter than it is today. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean around Antarctica respond to changes in ice sheet height. We find that the response to lowering the ice sheet is not the opposite of the response to raising it, and that in either case the ocean surface near the continent warms. When the ice sheet is raised, the ocean warming is related to circulation changes; when the ice sheet is lowered, the ocean warming is from an increase in southward atmospheric heat transport. These results are important for understanding how the ice sheet height and local climate evolve together through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eighteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) are compared to reference data for the present, the Mid- Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for the Antarctic region. The climatology produced by a regional climate model is taken as a reference climate for the present. GCM results for the past are compared to ice-core data. The goal of this study is to find the best GCM that can be used to drive an ice sheet model that simulates the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Because temperature and precipitation are the most important climate variables when modelling the evolution of an ice sheet, these two variables are considered in this paper. This is done by ranking the models according to how well their output corresponds with the references. In general, present-day temperature is simulated well, but precipitation is overestimated compared to the reference data. Another finding is that model biases play an important role in simulating the past, as they are often larger than the change in temperature or precipitation between the past and the present. Considering the results for the present-day as well as for the MH and the LGM, the best performing models are HadCM3 and MIROC 3.2.2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore the relationships between the modelled climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and that for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide compared to the pre-industrial climate by analysing the output from an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 GCM. Our results lend support to the idea in other recent work that the Antarctic is a useful place to look for historical data which can be used to validate models used for climate forecasting of future greenhouse gas induced climate changes, at local, regional and global scales. Good results may also be obtainable using tropical temperatures, particularly those over the ocean. While the greater area in the tropics makes them an attractive area for seeking data, polar amplification of temperature changes may mean that the Antarctic provides a clearer signal relative to the uncertainties in data and model results. Our result for Greenland is not so strong, possibly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the sea ice extent. The MIROC3.2 model shows an asymmetry in climate sensitivity calculated by decreasing rather than increasing the greenhouse gases, with 80% of the ensemble having a weaker cooling than warming. This asymmetry, if confirmed by other studies would mean that direct estimates of climate sensitivity from the LGM are likely to be underestimated by the order of half a degree. Our suspicion is, however, that this result may be highly model dependent. Analysis of the parameters varied in the model suggest the asymmetrical response may be linked to the ice in the clouds, which is therefore indicated as an important area for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oceanic forcing of basal melt under floating ice shelves in Greenland and Antarctica is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate ice sheet modelling. We use a high-resolution, nonhydrostatic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to investigate basal melt rates and melt-driven circulation in the Sherard Osborn Fjord under the floating tongue of Ryder Glacier, northwestern Greenland. The control model configuration, based on the first-ever observational survey by Ryder 2019 Expedition, yielded melt rates consistent with independent satellite estimates. A protocol of model sensitivity experiments quantified the response to oceanic thermal forcing due to warming Atlantic Water and to the buoyancy input from the subglacial discharge of surface fresh water. We found that the average basal melt rates show a nonlinear response to oceanic forcing in the lower range of ocean temperatures, while the response becomes indistinguishable from linear for higher ocean temperatures, which unifies the results from previous modelling studies of other marine-terminating glaciers. The melt rate response to subglacial discharge is sublinear, consistent with other studies. The melt rates and circulation below the ice tongue exhibit a spatial pattern that is determined by the ambient density stratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into polar, and global changes. Here we develop and implement innovative water tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new precise information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In our preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35° S; a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8–16.3 °C; a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6–83.3 %; and a source 10 m wind speed (wind10) range of 10.1 to 11.3 m s-1. The tendency of poleward vapour transport to follow moist isentropes means that central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equatorward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways than coastal Antarctic precipitation. We find however this tendency breaks down in the lower troposphere, likely due to diabatic cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9° (300 km, averaged over Antarctica) more equatorward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equatorward moisture sources (by 2.4°, averaged over Antarctica) than precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source wind10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 m s-1 higher than annual mean wind10 at the evaporation source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. This is the first time this particular thermodynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation has been quantified. Overall, our novel water tracing diagnostics enhance our understanding of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land ice discharge from the Antarctic continent into the ocean is restrained by ice shelves, floating extensions of grounded ice that buttress the glacier outflow. The ongoing thinning of these ice shelves – largely due to enhanced melting at their base in response to global warming – is known to accelerate the release of glacier meltwater into the world oceans, augmenting global sea level. Mechanisms of ocean heat intrusion under the ice base are therefore crucial to project the future of Antarctic ice shelves. Furthermore, ice shelves are weakened by the presence of kilometer-wide full-thickness ice rifts, which are observed all around Antarctica. However, their impact on ocean circulation around and below ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly characterized by resolutions that are too coarse to resolve their presence. Here, we apply the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model at high resolution to investigate the sensitivity of sub-shelf ocean dynamics and ice-shelf melting to the presence of a kilometer-wide rift in proximity of the ice front. We find that (a) the rift curtails water and heat intrusion beneath the ice-shelf base and (b) the basal melting of a rifted ice shelf is on average 20 % lower than for an intact ice shelf under identical forcing. Notably, we calculate a significant reduction in melting rates of up to 30 % near the grounding line of a rifted ice shelf. We therefore posit that rifts and their impact on the sub-shelf dynamics are important to consider in order to accurately reproduce and project pathways of heat intrusion into the ice-shelf cavity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ionospheric density displays hemispheric asymmetries in the polar region due to various hemispheric differences, for example, in the offset between geographic and geomagnetic poles and in the geomagnetic field strength. Using ground‐based ionospheric measurements from Vertical Incidence Pulsed Ionospheric Radar with Dynasonde analysis at Jang Bogo Station (JBS), Antarctica and from EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) where both sites are located mostly in the polar cap, we investigate the hemispheric differences in the ionospheric density between the northern and southern hemispheres for geomagnetically quiet and solar minimum condition. The results are also compared with Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) simulations. The observations show larger density and stronger diurnal and seasonal variations at JBS in the southern hemisphere than at Svalbard in the northern hemisphere. The diurnal variations of the density peak height are also observed to be much larger at JBS. In both hemispheres, the ionospheric density is significantly reduced in winter due to the limited solar production at high geographic latitudes, but TIEGCM considerably overestimates winter density, which is even larger than summer density, especially in the northern hemisphere. Also existed are the differences in the equinoctial asymmetry between the observations and the simulations: the daytime F‐region density is observed to be larger in fall than in spring in both hemispheres, but TIEGCM shows the opposite. In general, most of the observed asymmetrical density are much weaker in the model simulation, which may result from lack of proper magnetospheric forcings and neutral dynamics in the model. Plain Language Summary: The global ionospheric density is not symmetric around the equator due to various reasons. The main reason for the asymmetry would be the asymmetric characteristics of the geomagnetic field. The ionospheric plasma motions are strongly controlled by the magnetic field lines and the magnetospheric energy inputs dominate the polar ionosphere. Therefore, the asymmetric geometry of the magnetic field lines and the offset between the geomagnetic and geographic poles can produce asymmetric density distributions of the ionosphere. However, the investigation of the hemispheric asymmetry has been mostly restricted to the low and mid‐latitude ionosphere and little study has been conducted in the polar ionosphere, mainly due to the lack of observations in the southern hemisphere. Since the establishment of the Jang Bogo Station (JBS), Antarctica in 2014, Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) has been operating various instruments to observe the ionosphere in association with the thermosphere and the magnetosphere. These observations allow us to investigate the hemispheric asymmetry of the ionospheric density by comparing with the observations in the northern polar region. It is found that the diurnal and seasonal variations of the ionospheric density are much stronger at JBS in the southern hemisphere than in Svalbard in the northern hemisphere. Key Points: The polar ionospheric density shows larger magnitude and stronger diurnal and seasonal variations at Jang Bogo Station than in SvalbardThe daytime density shows an equinoctial asymmetry which is larger in fall equinox than in spring equinoxThermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic Global Circulation Model significantly overestimates the winter density at high latitudes and shows the opposite equinoctial asymmetry to the observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non‐tidal background models describing high‐frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self‐attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1–6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE‐FO laser ranging interferometer range‐acceleration pre‐fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America. Plain Language Summary: In addition to many rather slow processes such as the melting of glaciers, rapid mass redistribution related to the weather also measurably affect the Earth's gravity field. The ability of monitoring liquid freshwater changes within the Earth system from the satellite gravity missions GRACE (2002–2017) and GRACE‐FO (since 2018) relies on accurate background models of mass variability in atmosphere and oceans for both tidal and non‐tidal processes. Atmospheric tides are primarily excited in the middle atmosphere by solar energy absorption at periods of 24 hr and its overtones. We find additional tidal signatures in the atmosphere excited by periodic deformations of both crust and sea‐surface of the Earth. We thus introduce here a new data set for the atmospheric tides and their corresponding oceanic response that features both more waves and higher accuracy than other background models previously used for the processing of GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite gravimetry data. Key Points: Sixteen relevant tidal lines identified in hourly data from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysisDedicated simulations with a high‐resolution global hydrodynamic model to simulate ocean tides with atmospheric influenceNew tidal models reduce pre‐fit residuals in GRACE‐FO Laser Ranging Interferometer data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atmosphere and Ocean De‐Aliasing Level‐1B (AOD1B) product provides a priori information about temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field induced by non‐tidal circulation processes in atmosphere and ocean. It is routinely applied as a background model in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)/GRACE Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO) satellite gravimetry data processing. We here present three new datasets in preparation for the upcoming release RL07 of AOD1B, that are based on either the global ERA5 reanalysis or the ECMWF operational data together with simulations from the Max‐Planck‐Institute for Meteorology general circulation model forced consistently with the fields of the same atmospheric data set. The oceanic simulations newly include an updated bathymetry around Antarctica including cavities under the ice shelves, the explicit implementation of the feedback effects of self‐attraction and loading to ocean dynamics as well as a refined harmonic tidal analysis. Comparison to the current release of AOD1B in terms of GRACE‐FO K‐band range‐acceleration pre‐fit residuals, LRI line‐of‐sight gravity differences and band‐pass filtered altimetry data reveals an overall improvement in the representation of the high‐frequency mass variability. Potential benefits of enhancing the temporal resolution remain inconclusive so that the upcoming release 07 will be sampled again every 3 hr. Plain Language Summary: Satellite gravimetry missions such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO), which play a vital role in the monitoring of the Earth's mass transports, require a priori background information on the high‐frequency mass variations which can not be resolved by the monthly gravity solutions. The Atmosphere and Ocean De‐Aliasing Level‐1B (AOD1B) data product provides the required background information for non‐tidal high‐frequency mass changes in the atmosphere and oceans. However, the accurate representation of these mass variations remains challenging and deficiencies in the background models have a significant impact on the overall gravity field errors. Thus, we here present three new datasets in preparation for an upcoming release of AOD1B (RL07). The datasets improve over previous releases by incorporating the effects of the self attraction and solid earth deformation caused by anomalous water masses (SAL), an improved representation of the bathymetry and atmospheric forcing around Antarctica, making use of the new ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis as well as an updated estimation and subtraction of atmospherically induced tidal signals. We compare the new data to the previous release of AOD1B using microwave‐ and laser‐ranging data from GRACE‐FO as well as Jason‐3 altimetry data and show a global improvement in the representation of high‐frequency mass changes. Key Points: Atmospheric mass variability from ECMWF's latest global reanalysis ERA5 is discussedOcean response from Max‐Planck‐Institute for Meteorology Ocean Model includes feedback of self‐attraction and loadingApplicable for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow‐On, and legacy data from SLR satellites [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition in snow and ice have long been utilized to reconstruct past temperatures of polar regions, under the assumption that post‐depositional processes such as sublimation do not fractionate snow. In low‐accumulation (<0.01 m yr−1) areas near the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica, surface snow and ice samples have exceptionally low deuterium excess values (d‐excess ≡ δD – 8*δ18O)—sometimes as negative as −5‰—an uncommon phenomenon that is not fully understood. Here we use both an isotope‐enabled general circulation model and an ice physics model and establish that such exceptionally low d‐excess values can only arise from precipitation if the majority of the moisture is sourced from the Southern Ocean (south of 55°S). However, the model results show that moisture sourced from oceans north of 55°S contributes significantly (>50%) to precipitation in Antarctica today. We thus propose that sublimation must have occurred to yield the low d‐excess values in snow observed in and near the Dry Valleys, and that solid‐phase‐diffusion in ice grains is sufficiently fast to allow Rayleigh‐like isotopic fractionation in similar environments. We calculate that under present‐day conditions at the Allan Hills outside the Dry Valleys, 3%–24% of the surface snow is lost due to sublimation. Because the magnitude of sublimation may be nonstationary (i.e., it could vary in time) during past cold periods, we suggest that sublimation‐induced fractionation can alter the relationship between the snow isotopic composition and polar temperatures. Plain Language Summary: Earth's past temperatures in the polar regions are often calculated from the relative abundances of heavy hydrogen or oxygen atoms (isotopes) in the polar ice. Implicit to this approach is the assumption that once the snow has fallen from the sky, its isotopic composition no longer changes. Yet, this conventional notion is incompatible with some observations. In and near the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica, for example, the surface snow and ice show an unusually large depletion in heavy hydrogen isotopes relative to heavy oxygen isotopes. Deficits of such a magnitude are rare in precipitation and therefore hint at sublimation causing the ice to change its isotopic composition (to "fractionate") after deposition; if true, this process would challenge the conventional wisdom about snow and ice as paleoclimate indicators. Here, we investigate whether these unusual heavy‐isotope deficits could originate from Antarctic precipitation. We determine that the moisture arriving at Antarctica today does not have these deficits. Sublimation of the snow that falls, however, can quantitatively explain the observed range of heavy‐hydrogen depletions. We conclude that sublimation does fractionate isotopes in and near the Dry Valleys, and may affect the past temperatures reconstructed from the hydrogen and/or oxygen isotopes. Key Points: Exceptionally low deuterium excess values exist in surface snow in the McMurdo Dry Valleys and Allan Hills Blue Ice Area, East AntarcticaTo yield such low deuterium excess in Antarctic precipitation, unrealistic moisture contributions from high‐latitude oceans are requiredSublimation fractionation lowers deuterium excess in relatively dry, windy, and warm conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last four decades, the sea level pressure has been decreasing over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) region and increasing between 30° and 40°S from New Zealand to Chile, thus forming a pressure trend dipole across the South Pacific. The trends are strongest in austral winter and have influenced the climate of West Antarctica and South America. The pressure trends have been attributed to decadal variability in the tropics, expansion of the Hadley cell, and an associated positive trend of the southern annular mode, but these mechanisms explain only about half of the pressure trend dipole intensity. Experiments conducted with two atmospheric models indicate that upper ocean warming over the subtropical southwest Pacific (SSWP), termed the Southern Blob, accounts for about half of the negative pressure trend in the ABS region and nearly all the ridging/drying over the eastern subtropical South Pacific, thus contributing to the central Chile megadrought. The SSWP warming intensifies the pressure trend dipole through warming the troposphere across the subtropical South Pacific and shifting the midlatitude storm track poleward into the ABS. Multidecadal periods of strong SSWP warming also appear in fully coupled preindustrial simulations, associated with a pressure trend dipole and reduction in rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, thus suggesting a natural origin of the Southern Blob and its teleconnection. However, the current warming rate exceeds the range of natural variability, implying a likely additional anthropogenic contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratified geostrophic turbulence theory predicts an inverse energy cascade for the barotropic (BT) mode. Satellite altimetry has revealed a net inverse cascade in the baroclinic (BC) mode. Here the spatial variabilities of BT and BC kinetic energy fluxes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) were investigated using ECCO2 data, which synthesize satellite data and in situ measurements with an eddy-permitting general circulation model containing realistic bathymetry and wind forcing. The BT and BC inverse kinetic energy cascades both reveal complex spatial variations that could not be explained fully by classical arguments. For example, the BC injection scales match better with most unstable scales than with the first-mode deformation scales, but the opposite is true for the BT mode. In addition, the BT and BC arrest scales do not follow the Rhines scale well in terms of spatial variation, but show better consistency with their own energy-containing scales. The reverse cascade of the BT and BC modes was found related to their EKE, and better correlation was found between the BT inverse cascade and barotropization. Speculations of the findings were proposed; however, further observations and modeling experiments are needed to test these interpretations. Spectral flux anisotropy exhibits a feature associated with oceanic jets that is consistent with classical expectations. Specifically, the spectral flux along the along-stream direction remains negative at scales up to that of the studied domain (~2000 km), while that in the perpendicular direction becomes positive close to the scale of the width of a typical jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Continental Shelf seas (ACSS) are a critical, rapidly changing element of the Earth system. Analyses of global-scale general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including those available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6), can help reveal the origins of observed changes and predict the future evolution of the ACSS. However, an evaluation of ACSS hydrography in GCMs is vital: previous CMIP ensembles exhibit substantial mean-state biases (reflecting, for example, misplaced water masses) with a wide inter-model spread. Because the ACSS are also a sparely sampled region, grid-point-based model assessments are of limited value. Our goal is to demonstrate the utility of clustering tools for identifying hydrographic regimes that are common to different source fields (model or data), while allowing for biases in other metrics (e.g., water mass core properties) and shifts in region boundaries. We apply K -means clustering to hydrographic metrics based on the stratification from one GCM (Community Earth System Model version 2; CESM2) and one observation-based product (World Ocean Atlas 2018; WOA), focusing on the Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Ross seas. When applied to WOA temperature and salinity profiles, clustering identifies "primary" and "mixed" regimes that have physically interpretable bases. For example, meltwater-freshened coastal currents in the Amundsen Sea and a region of high-salinity shelf water formation in the southwestern Ross Sea emerge naturally from the algorithm. Both regions also exhibit clearly differentiated inner- and outer-shelf regimes. The same analysis applied to CESM2 demonstrates that, although mean-state model biases in water mass T – S characteristics can be substantial, using a clustering approach highlights that the relative differences between regimes and the locations where each regime dominates are well represented in the model. CESM2 is generally fresher and warmer than WOA and has a limited fresh-water-enriched coastal regimes. Given the sparsity of observations of the ACSS, this technique is a promising tool for the evaluation of a larger model ensemble (e.g., CMIP6) on a circum-Antarctic basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections. Plain Language Summary: Melting glaciers (outside the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica) contribute strongly to rising sea level and are expected to continue to do so throughout this century. However, the amount of future sea level rise from glaciers is not well known. One of the causes for uncertainty is the lack of knowledge of future greenhouse gas emissions. This uncertainty is growing steadily during the 21st century and constitutes the most important uncertainty by 2100. Another cause of uncertainty are the glacier models themselves, since they rely on approximations and simplifications of complex glacier processes. This uncertainty is very important until the middle of the 21st century, but less important in the second half of the 21st century. Overall, glaciers will lose around 18 % of their ice mass in a low‐emission scenario, or around 36 % in a high‐emission scenario, contributing roughly 79 or 159 mm to sea level rise by 2100. Key Points: Glacier melt will contribute between 79 ± 56 (RCP2.6) and 159 ± 86 mm (RCP8.5) to sea level rise during 2015–2100Until the mid‐21st century, disagreement between glacier models dominates the uncertaintyAt the end of the 21st century, differing emission pathway choices made by human societies dominate the uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Southern Ocean (SO) played a prominent role in the exchange of carbon between ocean and atmosphere on glacial timescales through its regulation of deep ocean ventilation. Previous studies indicated that SO sea ice could dynamically link several processes of carbon sequestration, but these studies relied on models with simplified ocean and sea ice dynamics or snapshot simulations with general circulation models. Here, we use a transient run of an intermediate complexity climate model, covering the past eight glacial cycles, to investigate the orbital-scale dynamics of deep ocean ventilation changes due to SO sea ice. Cold climates increase sea ice cover, sea ice export, and Antarctic Bottom Water formation, which are accompanied by increased SO upwelling, stronger poleward export of Circumpolar Deep Water, and a reduction of the atmospheric exposure time of surface waters by a factor of 10. Moreover, increased brine formation around Antarctica enhances deep ocean stratification, which could act to decrease vertical mixing by a factor of four compared with the current climate. Sensitivity tests with a steady-state carbon cycle model indicate that the two mechanisms combined can reduce atmospheric carbon by 40 ppm, with ocean stratification acting early within a glacial cycle to amplify the carbon cycle response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50 ∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr -1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr -1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr -1 , is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr -1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Predicting future changes in species richness in response to climate change is one of the key challenges in biogeography and conservation ecology. Stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) are a commonly used tool to predict current and future species richness. Macroecological models (MEMs), regression models with species richness as response variable, are a less computationally intensive alternative to S‐SDMs. Here, we aim to compare the results of two model types (S‐SDMS and MEMs), for the first time for more than 14,000 species across multiple taxa globally, and to trace the uncertainty in future predictions back to the input data and modelling approach used. Location: Global land, excluding Antarctica. Taxon: Amphibians, birds and mammals. Methods: We fitted S‐SDMs and MEMs using a consistent set of bioclimatic variables and model algorithms and conducted species richness predictions under current and future conditions. For the latter, we used four general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Predicted species richness was compared between S‐SDMs and MEMs and for current conditions also to extent‐of‐occurrence (EOO) species richness patterns. For future predictions, we quantified the variance in predicted species richness patterns explained by the choice of model type, model algorithm and GCM using hierarchical cluster analysis and variance partitioning. Results: Under current conditions, species richness predictions from MEMs and S‐SDMs were strongly correlated with EOO‐based species richness. However, both model types over‐predicted areas with low and under‐predicted areas with high species richness. Outputs from MEMs and S‐SDMs were also highly correlated among each other under current and future conditions. The variance between future predictions was mostly explained by model type. Main conclusions: Both model types were able to reproduce EOO‐based patterns in global terrestrial vertebrate richness, but produce less collinear predictions of future species richness. Model type by far contributes to most of the variation in the different future species richness predictions, indicating that the two model types should not be used interchangeably. Nevertheless, both model types have their justification, as MEMs can also include species with a restricted range, whereas S‐SDMs are useful for looking at potential species‐specific responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern westerly wind belt (SWW) interacts with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and strongly impacts the Southern Ocean carbon budget, and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics across glacial–interglacial cycles. We investigated precipitation-driven sediment input changes to the Southeast Pacific off the southern margin of the Atacama Desert over the past one million years, revealing strong precession (19/23-ka) cycles. Our simulations with 2 ocean– atmosphere general circulation models suggest that observed cyclic rainfall changes are linked to meridional shifts in water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific toward the southern Atacama Desert. These changes reflect a precessional modulation of the split in the austral winter South Pacific jet stream. For precession maxima, we infer significantly enhanced rainfall in the southern Atacama Desert due to a stronger South Pacific split jet with enhanced subtropical/subpolar jets, and a weaker midlatitude jet. Conversely, we derive dry conditions in northern Chile related to reduced subtropical/subpolar jets and an enhanced midlatitude jet for precession minima. The presence of precessional cycles in the Pacific SWW, and lack thereof in other basins, indicate that orbital-scale changes of the SWW were not zonally homogeneous across the Southern Hemisphere, in contrast to the hemispherewide shifts of the SWW suggested for glacial terminations. The strengthening of the jet is unique to the South Pacific realm and might have affected winter-controlled changes in the mixed layer depth, the formation of intermediate water, and the buildup of sea-ice around Antarctica, with implications for the global overturning circulation and the oceanic storage of atmospheric CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to increase in snowfall, the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is expected to increase by the end of the current century. Assuming no associated response of ice dynamics, this will be a negative contribution to sea-level rise. However, the assessment of these changes using dynamical downscaling of coupled climate model projections still bears considerable uncertainties due to poorly represented high-southern-latitude atmospheric circulation and sea surface conditions (SSCs), that is sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration. This study evaluates the Antarctic surface climate simulated using a global high-resolution atmospheric model and assesses the effects on the simulated Antarctic surface climate of two different SSC data sets obtained from two coupled climate model projections. The two coupled models from which SSCs are taken, MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M, simulate future Antarctic sea ice trends at the opposite ends of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection range. The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid configuration in order to achieve an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over the 1981–2010 period, ARPEGE is driven by the SSCs from MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M and CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSCs. These three simulations are evaluated against the ERA-Interim reanalyses for atmospheric general circulation as well as the MAR regional climate model and in situ observations for surface climate. For the late 21st century, SSCs from the same coupled climate models forced by the RCP8.5 emission scenario are used both directly and bias-corrected with an anomaly method which consists in adding the future climate anomaly from coupled model projections to the observed SSCs with taking into account the quantile distribution of these anomalies. We evaluate the effects of driving the atmospheric model by the bias-corrected instead of the original SSCs. For the simulation using SSCs from NorESM1-M, no significantly different climate change signals over Antarctica as a whole are found when bias-corrected SSCs are used. For the simulation driven by MIROC-ESM SSCs, a significant additional increase in precipitation and in winter temperatures for the Antarctic Ice Sheet is obtained when using bias-corrected SSCs. For the range of Antarctic warming found (+3 to +4 K), we confirm that snowfall increase will largely outweigh increases in melt and rainfall. Using the end members of sea ice trends from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projections, the difference in warming obtained (∼ 1 K) is much smaller than the spread of the CMIP5 Antarctic warming projections. This confirms that the errors in representing the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in climate models are also determinant for the diversity of their projected late 21st century Antarctic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact on seasonal polar predictability from improved tropical and midlatitude forecasts is explored using a perfect-model experiment and applying a nudging approach in a GCM. We run three sets of 7-month long forecasts: a standard free-running forecast and two nudged forecasts in which atmospheric winds, temperature, and specific humidity (U, V, T, Q) are nudged toward one of the forecast runs from the free ensemble. The two nudged forecasts apply the nudging over different domains: the tropics (30°S–30°N) and the tropics and midlatitudes (55°S–55°N). We find that the tropics have modest impact on forecast skill in the Arctic or Antarctica both for sea ice and the atmosphere that is mainly confined to the North Pacific and Bellingshausen–Amundsen–Ross Seas, whereas the midlatitudes greatly improve Arctic winter and Antarctic year-round forecast skill. Arctic summer forecast skill from May initialization is not strongly improved in the nudged forecasts relative to the free forecast and is thus mostly a "local" problem. In the atmosphere, forecast skill improvement from midlatitude nudging tends to be largest in the polar stratospheres and decreases toward the surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines the near-surface responses, in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere, to a reduction and an excess of sea ice cover in the Ross Sea. Large ensembles (60 members) of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (AGCM-CPTEC) are used for this purpose. Locally, when the sea ice cover decreases (increases), heat fluxes, temperature, and pressure increase (decreases). A principal component analysis of temperature and geopotential height identifies the potential remote connections. We have found three main results: first, an association between the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea and a wave train that resembles the Pacific South American (PSA) pattern; second, a relationship between temperatures in the Ross Sea and in the southern South America; and third, an apparent correspondence between reduced sea ice cover in the Ross Sea and the subtropical jet over Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the influence of Antarctic sea ice distribution on the large scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere using a fully coupled GCM where the sea ice submodel is replaced by a climatology of observed extremes in sea ice concentration. Three 150-year simulations were completed for maximum, minimum and average sea ice concentrations and the results for the austral summer (January-March) were compared using the surface temperatures forced by the sea ice distributions as a filter for creating the composite differences. The results indicate that in the austral summer the polar cell expands (contracts) under minimum (maximum) sea ice conditions with corresponding shifts in the midlatitude Ferrell cell. We suggest that this response occurs because sea ice lies in the margin between the polar and midlatitude cells. The polarity of the Southern Hemisphere Annular (SAM) mode is also influenced such that when sea ice is at a minimum (maximum) the polarity of the SAM tends to be negative (positive). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic and sub-Antarctic methanesulphonic acid (MSA) to non sea salt sulphate (nssSO4 ) ratio is simulated with the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Atmospheric General Circulation Model including an atmospheric sulphur chemistry module. Spatial variations of the MSA/nssSO4 ratio in different regions have been suggested to be mostly dependent on temperature or sulphur source contributions. Its past variations in ice cores have been interpreted as related to the DMS precursor source location. Our model results are compared with available field measurements in the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic regions. This suggests that the MSA/nssSO4 ratio in the extra-tropical south hemisphere is mostly dependent on the relative importance of various DMS oxidation pathways. In order to evaluate the effect of a rapid conversion of dimethyl sulphoxide (DMSO) into MSA, not implemented in the model, the MSA+DMSO to nssSO4 ratio is also discussed. Using this modified ratio, the model mostly captures the seasonal variations of MSA/nssSO4 at mid and high-southern latitudes. In addition, the model qualitatively reproduces the bell shaped meridional variations of the ratio, which is highly dependent on the adopted relative reaction rates for the DMS+OH addition and abstraction pathways, and on the assumed reaction products of the MSIA+OH reaction. MSA/nssSO4 ratio in Antarctic snow is fairly well reproduced except at the most inland sites characterized with very low snow accumulation rates. Our results also suggest that atmospheric chemistry plays an important role in the observed decrease of the ratio in snow between coastal regions and central Antarctica. The still insufficient understanding of the DMS oxidation scheme limits our ability to model the MSA/nssSO4 ratio. Specifically, reaction products of the MSIA+OH reaction should be better quantified, and the impact of a fast DMSO conversion to MSA in spring to fall over Antarctica should be evaluated. A better understanding of BrO source processes is needed in order to include DMS + BrO chemistry in global models. Completing the observations of DMS, BrO and MSA at Halley Bay with DMSO measurements would better constrain the role of BrO in DMS oxidation. Direct measurements of MSA and nssSO4 dry deposition velocities on Antarctic snow would improve our ability to model MSA and nssSO4 in ice cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the response of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) to a reduction in Antarctic sea-ice extent during summer. The control simulations are forced by prescribed, observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice extents, while in the perturbation simulations sea-ice is reduced. The simulations are restarts of an AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) configured simulation, and 2 summers (1979/80 and 1984/85) were selected for the study.The results show that a reduced sea-ice extent causes an increase insurface air temperatures in the regions where sea-ice was removed, and an associated decrease in pressure at high latitudes (around 60 deg. S). The greatest increase in surface air temperatures are found north of the Weddell and Ross Seas. There is an increase in pressure between 30 and 50 deg. S, which is associated with a strengthening and southward extension of the subtropical high pressure belt. The changein vertical velocities supports these results showing an intensification of the ascending limb of the Ferrel cell and a southward extension of the descending limb of the Hadley cell. In response to the perturbation there is an increase in wind speeds in mid/high latitudes (45 to 65 deg. S), and a decrease in the westerly flow in the subtropics (30 to 40 deg. S). The amplitude of circumpolar wave number 1 decreases in the perturbations compared to the controls in both years. This may be a result of reduced asymmetry of the SST distribution about the pole and the southward shift of the subtropical high-pressure belt. A cyclone analysis shows an increase in the number of midlatitude cyclones around Antarctica (60 to 70 deg. S) and a decrease further north (40 to 60 deg. S). The general pattern of changed circulation for the summer of 1984/85 is positioned slightly south of that in 1979/80, perhaps related to the less extensive sea-ice in 1984/85. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic stratospheric final warming (SFW) is usually simulated with a substantial delay in climate models, and the corresponding temperatures in austral spring are lower than observations, implying insufficient stratospheric wave drag. To investigate the role of orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) in modeling the Antarctic SFW, in this study the orographic GWD parameterization scheme is modified in the middle-atmosphere version of the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model. A pair of simulations are conducted to compare two orographic GWD schemes in simulating the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex over Antarctica. The control simulation with the default orographic GWD scheme exhibits delayed vortex breakdown and the cold-pole bias seen in most climate models. In the simulation with modified orographic GWD scheme, the simulated vortex breaks down earlier by 8 days, and the associated cold-pole bias is reduced by more than 2 K. The modified scheme provides stronger orographic GWD in the lower stratosphere, which drives an accelerated polar downwelling branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and, in turn, produces adiabatic warming. Our study suggests that modifying orographic GWD parameterizations in climate models would be a valid way of improving the SFW simulation over Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]