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The ability to predict business cycle activity is an invaluable skill for governments and policy makers alike, especially before an economy enters a downturn. We analyse causality relationships between key leading economic indicators and economic growth for three countries from 1970 to 2010. We find that while many indicators do not help explain current movements in GDP growth, lags of these indicators do. In addition, the direction of the change and the size of the change in the lagged economic indicators are very important in many cases. This is particularly true for housing indicators.

Reviews the development of Irish housing policy from the eighteenth century to the present. Emphasizes the importance of measuring quality in housing, where housing may be described by a vector of measured characteristics. Undertakes a detailed price determination of these various characteristics using a hedonic model. Explains observed house prices in terms of the various housing characteristics using a hedonic model, from which a set of implicit or “hedonic” prices emerges. Reviews the theoretical basis of such an approach and develops a model specifically for aggregated data, as other studies in this area used disaggregated models. Obtains quantitative estimates of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the housing bundle before and after a series of model transformations. The results indicate the premium associated with certain housing characteristics. They emphasize, in particular, the importance of floor area and location in determining new Irish estate house prices.