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The paper guides three scenarios of power planning for Vietnam for the 2018–2030 period under CO2 emission targets. The analysis employs a model of energy expansion in the form of an optimization problem with the objective of the discounted entire system cost minimization. With each CO2 emission allowance, a scenario of the newly installed capacity structure will be carried out. The results indicate that instead of 42.6% coal-fired installed capacity as indicated in the National Power Development Master Plan for the 2011–2020 period with the Vision to 2030 (known as PDP VII), by 2030 the share of this power source will be around 29% (8% CO2 reduction scenario) and 19% (25% CO2 reduction scenario). Also, the lower emission sources such as hydro, wind, and solar power will be a priority for investment in the next decade. There is an existence of coal-fired power plants replacement by natural gas stations. Keywords: Power planning, Optimization problem, CO2 reduction target

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 °C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.