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This article develops a probabilistic approach for assessing transport network vulnerability. A novel performance measure is proposed to evaluate the expected impact when multiple transport network components fail simultaneously at various degrees. The proposed measure captures both the likelihood and consequence of a combination of transport network component failures. The most critical combination of transport network component failures is obtained by solving a bi-level optimization problem. The upper-level problem is to solve for the combination of transport network components together with their corresponding disruption levels, which induces the maximum reduction in the performance measure. The lower-level problem is to capture the response of travelers to network changes due to network component failures and is formulated as a traffic assignment problem. The clonal selection algorithm (CSA), a biologically inspired approach, is adopted to tackle the proposed bi-level optimization problem. Numerical results indicate that neglecting partial capacity degradation and its probability of occurrence could misestimate the worst scenario, and different vulnerability assessment approaches could identify similar critical components but our approach can discover some components that are not found by other existing approaches. Moreover, it is shown that the CSA outperforms the well-known genetic algorithm in terms of solution quality in a large network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a recent surge of research interest in quantifying the health and environmental impacts of increased cycling in urban environments. Although there is general agreement that the benefits of increased cycling outweigh the risks, most of the methodologies developed have had limited value for evaluating real-world transport policies. This is because they are based on hypothetical scenarios where increased cycling takes place but give no consideration to the courses of action which may help policymakers to achieve the scenarios. A useful extension to these methodologies would be one which allowed a user to find the optimal infrastructure design and/or policies which would maximize total societal benefit, taking into account the health and environmental impacts of cycling. In this study, a Network Design Problem is formulated for systematically designing cycling network layouts in order to maximize the net benefits to the network users and society. The problem is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and a solution approach based on a genetic algorithm (GA) is provided to solve the problem. The problem formulation and solution algorithm are tested using a numerical example. The GA algorithm was shown to efficiently converge to an optimal or near-optimal solution for the cycle network design. The proposed optimization framework may be adopted by transport authorities and/or urban planners as a decision support tool to help them to systematically identify the best design for a cycle network which balances the benefits and risks to all stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]