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The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences rainfall extremes in Indonesia with major impacts on droughts and floods and potential consequences for rice production. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is an indicator used to detect the occurrence of ENSO events. A consistently negative (phase 1) and a rapidly falling SOI (phase 3) (indicating an El Nino cycle) were related to high probability of below-average rainfalls in the Ciparay and Bojongsoang areas of Bandung District. Therefore, the use of SOI phase information prior to the planting season would assist farmers in making optimum planting decisions. This study attempted to evaluate the economic benefits of using SOI phase information in March/April to make informed agricultural decisions for the second crop planting (April/May). The use of the SOI phases in conjunction with a crop simulation model would facilitate an objective evaluation of other cropping options. The results indicated that farmers who switched from rice to soybean or maize for the May planting season, following the March/April SOI phase I and III, earned higher incomes. The cumulative net income differences over the 63 years for soybean was about USD 1700 (27% higher at Ciparay) and USD 2350 (45% higher at Bojongsoang) and for maize was about USD 1524 (19% higher at Ciparay) and USD 1970 (35% higher at Bojongsoang).

The use of climate projections such as Cordex-SEA with crop simulation models can determine the projections of rice productivity in the future especially to meet the Indonesian vision as world food granary by 2045.This study aimed to 1) evaluate the projection of rice productivity and 2) compile a map of projected changes at the district level in Java Island in 2021-2035 and 2036-2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) results based on the CSIROMK3.6 climate projection model for both scenarios in 2021-2035 showed that the impact of high productivity was high during the rainy season compared to the dry season. Districts with the increase of productivity indicate that these areas can be maintained or developed for rice crop. For the RCP4.5 scenario (rainy season) in the irrigated area, 41 districts out of 191 districts in Java Island had the class of up-high productivity changes. For the period of 2036 to 2050, there were fewer districts that had up-high productivity changes. The APSIM simulation results using HadGEM2 climate projections indicated more districts had decreased productivity in both year periods for both scenarios.

Droughts and floods due to extreme climate events has caused yield loss in various regions of Indonesia, including the Provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra. An early detection model needs to be developed to anticipate the negative impacts of extreme climate event. The model may describe the association of surplus and rainfall deficits with paddy damage due to drought and flood. We used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to explore drought and flood characteristics in period 1989-2016. The study aimed: (i) to analyze the relationship between SPI and paddy damage due to drought and flood events, (ii) to analyze the critical value of the duration and intensity of SPI which causes paddy damage, and (iii) to determine which districts were prone to drought and flood in the Provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra. The results concluded that SPI-3 and -6 months can better describe the frequency of drought and rice flooding. In addition, drought on paddy occured mostly if the SPI was smaller than -1 which took place within 4-5 months, whereas flood occured if the SPI was greater than 1. Short duration drought (2-3 months) were observed in five districts in Aceh (2) and North Sumatra (3). On other hand, more flood districts were identified (9 districts).

Coffee is one of the Indonesian largest export commodities and has a strategic role in the economy of nearly two million farmers’ livelihood. The potency of Indonesia’s coffee export is quite high because of its preferred taste, however the trend of national coffee production is only 1-2% per year. On the other hand, the impacts of climate change also threaten the achievement of increased production targets. This paper reviews the impact climate change on coffee production and the adaptation strategies. The main coffee producing regions in Indonesia are Aceh, North Sumatera, South Sumatera, Lampung, Bengkulu, East Java and South Sulawesi Provinces. Most of these regions are vulnerable to climate change. The increasing of extreme climate events such as drought due to El Niño causes a decline in national coffee production to 10%. On the contrary, the longer wet season due to La Niña caused the decreased coffee production to 80%. Indirect impacts due to rising temperatures are increased incidence of coffee borer and leaf rust disease which can lead to a 50% decline on coffee production. Due to rising temperatures, the projected coffee production areas are projected to shift to higher elevations. Numerous adaptive technologies have been intoduced, however adaptive capacaity of farmers are still low. This condition is exacerbated by the limited access of most farmers to climate information, markets, technology, farming credits, and climate risk management information. To overcome the problem, policy makers, stakeholders and farmers have to accelerate the adaptation practices since the climate change has occurred and will continue to happen.Keywords: Coffee, climate change, production, adaptation Top of Form AbstrakKopi merupakan salah satu komoditas ekspor yang berperan strategis dalam perekonomian hampir dua juta rumah petani di Indonesia. Potensi ekspor kopi Indonesia cukup tinggi karena cita rasanya yang disukai, namun tren peningkatan produksi kopi nasional hanya 1-2% per tahun. Di sisi lain, dampak perubahan iklim juga mengancam tercapainya target peningkatan produksi. Makalah ini merupakan tinjauan dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produksi kopi dan strategi adaptasinya di Indonesia. Daerah penghasil utama kopi seperti Aceh, Sumatera Utara, Sumatera Selatan, Lampung, Bengkulu, Jawa Timur dan Sulawesi Selatan rentan terhadap dampak perubahan iklim. Meningkatnya kejadian iklim ekstrim seperti kekeringan akibat El Niño mengakibatkan penurunan produksi kopi 10%. Sebaliknya, musim hujan yang panjang akibat La Niña menurunkan produksi kopi hingga 80%. Dampak tidak langsung perubahan iklim adalah meningkatnya serangan hama penggerek buah kopi dan penyakit karat daun yang menyebabkan penurunan produksi sekitar 50%. Akibat kenaikan suhu, sentra produksi kopi diproyeksikan akan berpindah ke wilayah dengan elevasi yang lebih tinggi. Berbagai teknologi adaptasi telah dihasilkan, namun tingkat adaptasi petani kopi umumnya masih rendah. Kondisi ini diperparah oleh terbatasnya akses sebagian besar petani terhadap informasi iklim, pasar, teknologi, kredit usaha tani, dan informasi pengelolaan risiko iklim. Untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut, pengambil kebijakan, stakeholder, dan petani harus mengakselerasi upaya adaptasi karena perubahan iklim telah terjadi dan akan terus berlangsung.Kata kunci: Kopi, perubahan iklim, produksi, adaptasi

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events and in the variability of weather patterns will have significant consequences for stability of agricultural system. Research objectives were to a) analyze the Impact of Climate Change on Food Crops in Dryland b) develop a software prototype analysis of the impact of climate change on food production, especially upland rice and maize on dry land; c) create a simulation with multiple scenarios of the impact of climate change on dry land. The study was conducted in South Sulawesi, West Nusatenggara and East Nusatenggara.The activities were carried out by projecting precipitation using scenarios: a) SRESA2 (Scenarios of climate change by assuming economic growth is lower and population growth remains high so the rate of greenhouse gas emissions increased, b) SRESB1 (scenario of climate change by assuming mitigation efforts through expanding efficient use of energy and technology improvements so that the emission levels are lower) and making projections of production of upland rice and maize using Decission Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) as resource information in the preparation of prototype software information Systems Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production (SIDaPi TaPa). The system was built based on the analysis simulation model projections of production output DSSAT. Based on SRES scenarios A2, the decline in rainfall increased until 2050 in several districts, in South Sulawesi, West Nusatenggara and East Nusatenggara.Treatment of adaptation through SRESB1 scenarios could be effective to anticipate a decrease in rainfall in some regions, either in 2025 or 2050. In general, the region experiencing a decrease in rainfall will also decrease in production of both upland rice and maize production. The decline in upland rice production by SRESA2 scenario until 2050 was between 20-25%, and by a scenario adaptation SRESB1 the decline in production could be minimized to only between 7 -10%.The decline in maize production in the plot until 2050 by SRESA2 was between 9-15%, using scenarios to reduce production SRESB1 was only 5-8%. SIDAPI TAPA is a software analysis of the impact of climate change on food production, especially upland rice and maize on dry land in South Sulawesi, West Nusatenggara and East Nusatenggara.

Studi tentang karakteristik hidro-meteorologi telah dilakukan di wilayah danau Singkarak pada 2006-2007 dengan melibatkan partisipasi masyarakat. Stasiun iklim otomatis dan pengukur tinggi muka air otomatis dipasang untuk memonitor data hidrologi dan meteorologi di wilayah cekungan Singkarak. Data meteorologi dianalisa untuk mengetahui karakteristik iklim di wilayah sekitar danau. Model hidrologi GR4J dan H2U diaplikasikan untuk simulasi discharge dan untuk mengkarakterisasi proses hidrologi di wilayah danau. Simulasi model aliran divalidasi pada musim hujan. Alternatif pengelolaan lahan diformulasikan berdasarkan karakteristik hidrologi daerah aliran sungai di sekitar cekungan Singkarak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa daerah tangkapan di sekitar danau Singkarak memiliki respon yang tinggi terhadap jumlah dan intensitas hujan. Hidrograp menunjukkan peningkatan yang tajam dari discharge segera setelah curah hujan mulai dan menurun relative lamban ketika curah hujan berhenti. Untuk pengelolaan lahan secara berkelanjutan di wilayah danau Singkarak, konservasi lahan dan air harus menjadi prioritas utama. Wanatani dapat diimplementasikan sebagai alternatif sistem pertanaman oleh penduduk lokal. Karena potensi kelangkaan air bisa terjadi pada periode kering, panen air dan konservasi air dapat diterapkan sebagai opsi yang dapat dikombinasikan dalam sistem pengelolaan lahan. Hydro-meteorological processes of the Singkarak basin has been studied involving participatory of local community in 2006-2007. Automatic weather station (AWS) and automatic water level recorder (AWLR) were installed to record meteorological and hydrological data within the Singkarak Basin. Meteorological data was analyzed to understand the meteorological characteristic surrounding the Basin area. Model of GR4J and H2U were used to simulated discharge and to understand the hydrological processes within the basin. The validation of simulated discharge was done in the wet season. Best bet menu of land management options was formulated based on hydro-meteorological characteristics of the catchments surrounding Singkarak basin. The results showed that the catchments have high response to rainfall producing runoff that is discharged to the lake. The hydrograph data shows that the discharge sharply increased immediately after rainfall started then decreased quite slowly when rainfall ended. For sustainable land management in the Singkarak basin, land and water conservation have to be a priority options. Agro-forestry may be a better cropping system that has to be applied by local community. Since potential water scarcity during dry spell period may occur, water harvesting and water conservation are better options to be associated into the land management system.