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Cyclone Pam swept through the archipelago of Vanuatu on 13-14 March 2015, with wind speeds exceeding those recorded anywhere in the South Pacific since the 1980s. Southern and central parts of the country were particularly affected. Material damage on Tongoa, one of the most afflicted islands, was extensive, but no deaths were reported. During the storm, villagers found shelter in their kitchen, in what is considered locally as a 'lifeboat'. The aftermath was managed and mitigated by international aid organisations. On Tongoa, this included a 'Shelter Cluster' programme, under which villagers were given house rebuilding kits. Elaborating upon extensive ethnographic investigations on site between 2011 and 2018, this paper explores and reveals the ways in which this aid generated confusion among the local population. In a larger context of regular disasters triggered by natural hazards, locals have found endogenous ways of dealing with such extreme climatic events, for the most part without any external assistance.في الفترة من 13 إلى 14 مارس 2015 ، اجتاح إعصار بام أرخبيل منطقة فان واتو بسرعات رياح تجاوزت تلك المسجلة في أي مكان في منطقة جنوب المحيط الهادئ منذ الثمانينيات. وقد تأثرت الأجزاء الجنوبية والوسطى من البلاد بشكل خاص. في تونغوا، إحدى الجزر الأكثر تضررًا، كانت الأضرار المادية جسيمة على الرغم من عدم الإبلاغ عن أي حالة وفاة. خلال العاصفة، وجد القرويون المأوى في مطبخهم، والذي اعتبروه محليًا "قوارب نجاة". تمت إدارة تداعيات الكارثة والتخفيف من حدتها من قبل منظمات الإغاثة الدولية. وشمل ذلك في تونغوا برنامج "مجموعة المأوى" حيث تم تزويد القرويين بمجموعات أدوات إعادة بناء المنازل. بالتفصيل في التحقيقات الإثنوغرافية المكثفة في الموقع التي أجريت بين عامي 2011 و 2018 ، تستكشف هذه المقالة وتكشف الطرق التي تسببت بها هذه المساعدة في حدوث ارتباك بين السكان المحليين. في سياق أكبر من الكوارث العادية التي تسببها الأخطار الطبيعية، وجد السكان المحليون طرقًا داخلية للتعامل مع مثل هذه الأحداث المناخية المتطرفة ، في الجزء الأكبر من دون أي مساعدات خارجية - مما يكشف عن ديناميكية المساعدات الإنسانية الكلمات الدالة: إعصار بام ، كارثة ، مساعدات إنسانية ، إعادة بناء ما بعد الكارثة ، تو نغوا ، فان واتو ، العمارة العامية.2015年3月13日-14日，飓风帕姆席卷瓦努阿图群岛，风速超过了自1980年代以来南太平洋地区任何地方的记录。该国南部和中部地区受到的影响尤其严重。汤戈阿是受灾最为严重的岛屿之一，虽然没有死亡报告，但财产损失很大。暴风雨期间，村民们都躲在厨房里避难，厨房被当地人视为是“救生艇”。国际援助组织为这场灾难提供了善后工作和减灾帮助。这包括一项“避难所助建”计划，向村民提供房屋重建工具包。本文详细阐述了2011年至2018年间，在现场进行的大范围民族学调查，探讨并揭示了这种援助对当地人造成混乱的各种情况。对于周期性的自然灾害，当地人在大多数没有任何外界援助的情况下，已经掌握了一些在处理此类极端气候事件的老办法，这也揭示了人道主义援助的动态 关键词：飓风帕姆，灾难，人道主义援助，灾后重建，汤戈阿，瓦努阿图，乡土建筑.

Recent studies along the southern Baltic Sea coast have revealed sedimentary records of catastrophic storm surges that significantly exceed the magnitude of storms documented by instrumental measurements. The present study aimed to apply heavy mineral analysis for storm surge deposits along coasts of Gulf of Gdansk (southern Baltic), as well as for contemporary marine, beach, dune and coastal plain sediments, to test the applicability of the method and to provide new insights into the depositional processes and sediment sources of the storm deposits. The transparent, 0.125–0.25 mm heavy mineral fraction (>2.85 g/cm3) in 118 sediment samples was investigated, and the results were subjected to multivariate statistical analyses (cluster, PCA, LDA). Storm deposits showed higher concentrations of heavy minerals comprising enrichment in garnet, zircon, and rutile. General heavy mineral assemblage depended on regional provenance and primary sediment sources. However, flooding regime (overwash or inundation) played a key role in selective hydrodynamic sorting of grains and mineralogical composition of storm deposits. Interpretation of deposits formed in inundation regime was more certain than deposits formed in overwash regime. In the latter case, deposits showed more similarities to adjacent mineral provinces. Statistical analyses proofed that heavy minerals together with other sedimentological descriptors may be a promising proxy for recognition of deposits related to defined sedimentary environment or identification of particular sedimentological process, e.g. event layers resulted from storm surges.

Due to the influence of the monsoon, river runoff in most of China’s river basins is mainly concentrated in the flood season. The distribution is extremely uneven during the year and between the year. It needs to be fully utilized by the reservoir to bring serious challenges to the daily management. Therefore, analyzing the seasonal variation of storm floods, scientifically and rationally staging the flood season can not only give full play to the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir, but also be an inevitable requirement for coordinating reservoir flood control and power generation. Aiming at the several commonly used methods of flood season staging, the case study is carried out, and the applicable conditions are analyzed. Based on these, three new staging methods are proposed. Among them, the improved change point analysis method adopts the linear and nonlinear joint fitting, which improves the commonly used mean value calculation method. In theory, the non-uniformity and seasonality of the reservoir water are more carefully considered, and the flood season is considered to some extent. The distribution law and continuity of floods along the time course; the projection method has a similar theoretical system with the vector statistical method based on the annual maximum sampling method, both of which are based on the intensity of the points, the difference is the point of the latter is projected on the circumference, the partitioning result is selected by manual experience, and the human influence factor is large. The new method is to project the point on the straight line, and quantitatively gives the partitioning method, and is also applicable to the maximum flow of different sequences. The case of the same time, the dynamic clustering method divides the sample set into several subsets according to the similarity between samples, and has the advantage that the calculation amount is small and the genus of the sample can be changed compared with the system clustering method. The research results can provide reference for the reasonable adjustment of the reservoir flood season.

Commercial microwave links (CMLs) can be used as opportunistic and unconventional rainfall sensors by converting the received signal level into path-averaged rainfall intensity. As the reliable reconstruction of the spatial distribution of rainfall is still a challenging issue in meteorology and hydrology, there is a widespread interest in integrating the precipitation estimates gathered by the ubiquitous CMLs with the conventional rainfall sensors, i.e. rain gauges (RGs) and weather radars. Here, we investigate the potential of a dense CML network for the estimation of river discharges via a semi-distributed hydrological model. The analysis is conducted in a peri-urban catchment, Lambro, located in northern Italy and covered by 50 links. A two-level comparison is made between CML- and RG-based outcomes, relying on 12 storm/flood events. First, rainfall data are spatially interpolated and assessed in a set of significant points of the catchment area. Rainfall depth values obtained from CMLs are definitively comparable with direct RG measurements, except for the spells of persistent light rain, probably due to the limited sensitivity of CMLs caused by the coarse quantization step of raw power data. Moreover, it is shown that, when changing the type of rainfall input, a new calibration of model parameters is required. In fact, after the recalibration of model parameters, CML-driven model performance is comparable with RG-driven performance, confirming that the exploitation of a CML network may be a great support to hydrological modelling in areas lacking a well-designed and dense traditional monitoring system.

Many coastlines around the world are protected by dikes with shallow foreshores (e.g. salt marshes and mudflats) that attenuate storm waves and are expected to reduce the likelihood and volume of waves overtopping the dikes behind them. However, most of the studies to date that assessed their effectiveness have excluded the influence of infragravity (IG) waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Here, we propose a modular and adaptable framework to estimate the probability of coastal dike failure by overtopping waves (Pf). The influence of IG waves on overtopping is included using an empirical approach, which is first validated against observations made during two recent storms (2015 and 2017). The framework is then applied to compare the Pf values of the dikes along the Dutch Wadden Sea coast with and without the influence of IG waves. Findings show that including IG waves results in 1.1 to 1.6 times higher Pf values, suggesting that safety is overestimated when they are neglected. This increase is attributed to the influence of the IG waves on the design wave period and, to a lesser extent, the wave height at the dike toe. The spatial variation in this effect, observed for the case considered, highlights its dependence on local conditions – with IG waves showing greater influence at locations with larger offshore waves, such as those behind tidal inlets, and shallower water depths. Finally, the change in Pf due to the IG waves varied significantly depending on the empirical wave overtopping model selected, emphasizing the importance of tools developed specifically for shallow foreshore environments.

The studies described herein aimed to estimate the accuracy of determination of the volumetric changes on the dune coast of the southern Baltic Sea through the application of the XBeach numerical model, which is crucial for coastal engineering. In the first phase of the study, the profile (1D) mode of the model was adapted to 19 cross-shore profiles located along the Dziwnow Spit. The model was calibrated with a storm event in 2009 that caused significant changes to the dunes and beaches. Cross-shore profiles were measured approximately one and a half months before and after the storm. An evaluation of model performance was made based on the Brier skill score (BSS), the visual match of the profile shape (VMS), the absolute volumetric change error (m3/m) and the relative volumetric change error (%). In this study, parameters related to the asymmetry transport (facua) and the dune erosion algorithm (wetslp) were taken into account. The best results for model calibration on all 19 cross-shore profiles were obtained with facua values ranging from 0.16 to 0.40 and wetslp values from 0.35 to 0.60. The calibration of individual profiles yielded good results, with an average absolute error of approximately 4 m3/m and an average relative error of ca. 20%. The poorest results were collected for the profiles situated near coastal engineering structures, where the average absolute error was 10 m3/m and the relative error was 60%. The possibility of accepting one set of parameter values for all the profiles at once was also investigated. These studies revealed that the application of one set of facua and wetslp values for all profiles simultaneously resulted in a relative volumetric change error of ca. 25% on average, with the maximum of about 40%. Due to the difficulty of collecting data just before and after the storm event, complex studies using all available bathymetric data were performed. Using a joint dataset composed of prestorm topography recorded before that storm and bathymetry from different years, a simulation of the 2009 storm event was carried out. The studies revealed that the prestorm bathymetry and the randomness of the selection of calibration parameters have similar effects on the accuracy of volumetric changes. Moreover, the impact of the nearshore bathymetry (to a depth of 2 m) on modeling the volumetric changes in the terrestrial part of the shore is evident. A change in the sea bottom inclination and a successive change in the nearshore sediment volume can increase the difference between modeled and actual volumetric changes.

This paper offers a synthesis of the disparate evidence on the importance of the magnitude and duration of water level rise in both lacustrine and marine environments in relation to other long-term controls on coastal response (e.g., wind climatology, vegetation growth, geological context). A brief review of two 'equilibrium profile' models (i.e., the Bruun and RDA models) is provided as a conceptual foundation before considering a range of complicating factors that are important to determining how sandy coasts may evolve in the future under rates of relative water level rise (RWLR) similar to recent increases in sea level. Key processes controlling beach-dune interaction are reviewed, especially the rates of morphodynamic action relative to the inundation potential driven by water level increases, leading to the conclusion that transgression distances due to RWLR are small in comparison to characteristic shoreline excursions driven by storm events and subsequent reconstruction phases. Much of the available evidence suggests that the beach and foredune (together with the nearshore profile) will migrate landward intact, keeping pace with relatively slow rates of RWLR similar in magnitude to those predicted by current sea-level scenarios. However, the documented response of shorelines in the Great Lakes to several episodes of relatively rapid rates of RWLR over a period of about a decade indicates that landward migration of the foredune through aeolian processes may be too slow to keep pace with this magnitude of shoreline transgression, and therefore the foredune will be over-run by the translating beach and nearshore profile.

Salt marshes are important coastal habitats and provide ecosystem services to surrounding communities. They are, however, threatened by accelerating sea-level rise and sediment deprivation due to human activity within upstream catchments, which result in their drowning and a reduction in their extent. Rising seas are also leading to an expansion of coastal flooding protection infrastructures, which might also represent another serious if poorly understood threat to salt marshes due to effects on the resuspension and accumulation of sediment during storms. Here, we use observations from the Venice Lagoon (Italy), a back-barrier system with no fluvial sediment input recently protected by storm-surge barriers, to show that most of the salt-marsh sedimentation (more than 70% in this case) occurs due to sediment reworking during storm surges. We also prove that the large, yet episodic storm-driven sediment supply is seriously reduced by operations of storm-surge barriers, revealing a critical competition between the objectives of protection against coastal flooding and preservation of natural ecosystems. Without complementary interventions and management policies that reduce barrier activations, the survival of coastal wetlands is even more uncertain. Sediment supply to the Venice Lagoon is substantially reduced by flood barriers inhibiting storm-related sediment reworking and transport, according to observations through multiple storm events before and after barrier installation.

Sand and Dust storms are considered a major natural disaster that cause many damages to society and environment in Iraq and surrounded deserted regions. Two spring sand/dust storms on May in two different years were synoptically analyzed. These sand/dust storms were compared in terms of dust surface concentration from NMMB/BSC-Dust model, sea level pressure, surface wind vector, satellite vegetation index and stations rainfall. The findings of this sand/dust storms comparison indicate that Iraq in spring may be affected by two types of wind one dust storm initiated by Shamal which have long occurred in this region and caused frequent dust storms in spring and second by Al-Khamsian. Dust storm in 2012 is massive than sand/dust storm in 2018 where the highest dust surface concentration is reached to (7700 μg/m3) in 22 May 2012 and about (3100 μg/m3) in 11 May 2018. Increase in vegetation cover over Iraq in 2018 was about 23% more than in 2012. Rainfall level in season (2017-2018) was higher than in rainfall season (2011-2012) in Iraqi dust sources regions. Low pressure gradient, less strong wind, rise in rainfall level and enhancement in vegetation cover are contributed to decrease the storm concentration of 2018 roughly by half.

Murray-Darling Freshwater Research CentreMDFRC item.This paper assesses the capacity of a small (450 m2) constructed wetland in Victoria, Australia, to decrease nutrient loads generated by both background flows and storm events within the period March 1993 to January 1995. Under Australian conditions the effectiveness of wetlands in controlling diffuse pollution is influenced by extreme hydrological events which often carry a large proportion of the annual load from the catchment. The wetland retained a varying proportion of the nitrogen and phosphorus load over a range of hydrological events and seasonal conditions. The wetland also acted as a source of these nutrients on occasions. An annual nutrient budget was calculated for the period February 1994 to January 1995 by measuring all loads between and during storm events entering and leaving the wetland. The wetland ‘retained' 10 kg N yr−1 (23 g N m−2 yr−1) of nitrogen and 1.24 kg P yr−1 (2.80 g P m−2 yr−1) of phosphorus, representing 11 and 17%, respectively of the incoming nutrient loads for the budget period.Storm event size influenced the impact of the wetland on the nutrient loads generated in these events. Increasing event volumes generally resulted in decreased nutrient interception. The results of this study indicate that for significant load reduction to occur the scale of the wetland should be such that there is sufficient residence time to enable wetland processes to operate. Small strategically located wetlands high up in catchments which will have a cumulative impact on runoff generated in large storm events are likely to be more effective in intercepting nutrient loads than larger downstream structures.

This article examines the effects of extreme weather events on internal migration in Mongolia. Our focus is on dzuds, extremely harsh winters characterized by very cold temperature, snowfall anomalies, and/or storms causing very high livestock mortality. We exploit exogenous variation in the intensity of extreme winter events across time and space to identify their causal impacts on permanent domestic migration. Our database is a time series of migration and population data at provincial and district level from official population registries, spanning the 1992-2018 period. Results obtained with a two-way fixed effects panel estimator show that extreme winter events cause significant and sizeable permanent out-migration from affected provinces for up to two years after an event. These effects are confirmed when considering net change rates in the overall population at the district level. The occurrence of extreme winter events is also a strong predictor for declines in the local population of pastoralist households, the socio-economic group most affected by those events. This suggests that the abandonment of pastoralist livelihoods is an important channel through which climate affects within-country migration.

In July 2007 an intense summer storm resulted in significant activation of the sediment system in the Thinhope Burn, UK. Catchment- and reach-scale morphodynamic modelling is used to investigate the geomorphic work undertaken by Thinhope Burn; comparing this with the more subdued responses shown by its neighbours. Total sediment efflux for Thinhope Burn over the 10 yr period 1998-2007 was 18, 801 m3 four times that of the larger Knar Burn catchment and fifty-four times that of the smaller Glendue Burn catchment. For a discharge of 60 m3s-1, equivalent to the July 2007 Thinhope flood, sediment efflux was 575 m3, 76 m3, and 67 m3 for Thinhope, Glendue and Knar Burns respectively. It is clear that Thinhope Burn undertook significantly more geomorphic work compared to its neighbours. Analysis of the population of shear stress for reach-scale simulations on Thinhope Burn highlighted that the final three simulations (flood peaks of 60, 90, 236 m3s-1) all produced very similar distributions, with no marked increase in the modal shear stress (∼250 Nm-2). This possibly suggests that flows >60 m3s-1 are not able to exert significantly greater energy on the channel boundary, indicating that flows in the region of 60 m3s-1 attain ‘peak’ geomorphic work. It is argued that factors such as strength resistance of the key sediment sources (e.g. paleoberms perched on terraces), structural resistance to flood waves imposed by valley form resistance, location sensitivity and transmission resistance, may all offer explanations for increased geomorphic effectiveness compared with its neighbours. With the expectation of greater rainfall totals in the winter and more extreme summer events in upland areas of the UK, it is clear that attention needs to focus upon the implications of this upon the morphological stability of these areas not least to aid future sustainable flood risk management.

Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and Typhoon Hagupit (2014) are examples of two tropical cyclones (TCs) where, despite similarities in the track and intensity, the predictability of the TCs differed greatly. Both TCs made landfall over the Philippines having followed a similar track across the Pacific and both reached intensities in excess of 60 ms-1. Operational global ensemble forecasts showed large uncertainty in the track of Hagupit, whereas the ensemble spread for Haiyan was considerably less. Using the Met Office's Unified Model, 5-day global ensemble forecasts were produced for both storms. Consistent with the operational forecasts produced at the time of the storms, the spread of tracks is greater in the forecasts produced for Hagupit than Haiyan. Haiyan was located on the southern periphery of the subtropical high and embedded in a strong easterly flow. In contrast, the position of Hagupit between two anticyclones earlier in the forecast is key to the subsequent motion of the storm and determining if Hagupit will make landfall over the Philippines or turn to the north. Upper level winds contribute the most to the depth-averaged steering flow. Statistically significant differences in the strength of the upper level anticyclone to the east of the storm, the strength and position of the upper level ridge downstream of the storm and the location of a detached PV streamer appear between two groups of ensemble members - those which turn to the north and those which make landfall. Positional differences of the TC in different ensemble members earlier in the forecasts, particularly in the east to west direction, are correlated to larger north-east to south-west position differences later in the forecast. Ensemble sensitivity analysis suggests that this initial east-west positional variance is linked to the upper level geopotential height directly south of the storm. Accurately representing both the steering flow of Hagupit and the position of Hagupit is vital for an accurate forecast.

The shoreline of Gujarat in western coast of India has remained exposed to tsunamis and storm surges in past from distant to regional sources and processes. The catalogue of past tsunami and storm events whose geological signatures have been archived in the coastal records, often hints at frequency, magnitude and recurrence. In present work, we compile all possible signatures of palaeo-extreme wave events and attempt to assess the vulnerability to this rapidly developing shoreline. We report a total of six major extreme wave events, out of which atleast two have been identified to be associated with palaeotsunami deposits, whereas three are storm surge deposits and one is designated as a washover deposit. Archeological findings like the presence of thick walls around Dholavira (an ancient Harappan coastal trading centre) is also supportive of Harappan learning from the wrath of marine waves they would have faced. This study reports the wider time gap between the events, attributed to lack of preservation, difficulty in recognition, higher reworking or lack of detailed investigation ~ making the task of estimating recurrence a mammoth effort. The study shows that the shoreline of Gujarat has remained vulnerable to extreme wave events atleast during the last 6000 years, and have affected ancient settlers as well as modern anthropological activities.

Rainfall erosivity drives damaging hydrological events with significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. This study presents the world’s hitherto longest time-series of annual rainfall erosivity (725–2019 CE), one from the Tiber River Basin (TRB), a fluvial valley in central Italy in which the city of Rome is located. A historical perspective of erosive floods in the TRB is provided employing a rainfall erosivity model based on documentary data, calibrated against a sample (1923–1964) of actual measurement data. Estimates show a notable rainfall erosivity, and increasing variability, during the Little Ice Age (here, ~ 1250–1849), especially after c. 1495. During the sixteenth century, erosive forcing peaked at > 3500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1590, with values > 2500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1519 and 1566. Rainfall erosivity continued into the Current Warm Period (since ~ 1850), reaching a maximum of ~ 3000 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in the 1940s. More recently, erosive forcing has attenuated, though remains critically high (e.g., 2087 and 2008 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1992 and 2005, respectively). Comparison of the results with sediment production (1934–1973) confirms the model’s ability to predict geomorphological effects in the TRB, and reflects the role of North Atlantic circulation dynamics in central Italian river basins.

With climate change and rising sea levels, the coastal zone’s flood risk is deteriorating. Previous researches have shown a gradually degrading capacity of traditional hard engineering structures (e.g., seawall, dikes, etc.) on flood mitigation due to problems such as land subsidence and insufficient maintenance. To remedy the defects, the “building with nature concept” for coastal protection with saltmarshes was examined by combining field measurements and numerical simulations. The advantages of saltmarsh over traditional seawall on flood protection was demonstrated from the perspective of both flood area mitigation and economic gain, based on scenario simulations. Results show that tidal wetlands are essential in mitigating significant wave heights (Hs) and current velocities even during storm conditions. The storm wave and current velocity reduction ratio ( \begin{document}$R{R}_{{\rm{w}}}$\end{document} and \begin{document}$R{R}_{{\rm{c}}}$\end{document} ) by saltmarshes on Chongming Dongtan Shoal (CMDS) during Typhoon 9711 is approximately 11% and 51%, respectively. The wave and current mitigation by Scirpus mariqueter are more efficient than Spartina alterniflora and Phragmites australis during measurements in 2010, which were approximately 0.3 m and 0.2 m/s, 0.125 m and 0.155 m/s, 0.086 m and 0.128 m/s per kilometer width, respectively. The summer saltmarsh area 54.2 km2 on CMDS protects approximately 32 km2 land area behind the seawall from being flooded, equivalent to the seawall heightening of approximately 0.42 m on equivalent flood mitigation. The performance of cost-and-benefit analysis shows a relatively higher (by 3%–7%) net present value (NPV) and a higher (by 1.5 times) benefit-cost ratio (BC) of nature-based solution (i.e., saltmarsh restoration) compared with traditional hard engineering solution (i.e., seawall construction). Thus, building seawall with nature, such as a hybrid flood protection measure, should be implemented in the future coastal redesign and maintenance.

Precipitation extremes will generally intensify in response to a warming climate. This robust fingerprint of climate change is of particular concern, resulting in heavy rainfall and devastating floods. Often this intensification is explained as a consequence of the Clausius–Clapeyron law in a warmer world, under constant relative humidity. Here, based on an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate models and high-resolution regional climate simulations, we take the example of Southwest Asia, where extreme storms will intensify beyond the Clausius- Clapeyron scaling, and propose an additional novel mechanism for this region: the unique increase in atmospheric relative humidity over the Arabian Sea and associated deep northward penetration of moisture. This increase in humidity is dictated by changes in circulation over the Indian Ocean. Our proposed mechanism is consistent with the recent, most extreme storm ever observed in the region. Our findings advance a new understanding of natural climate variability in this region, with substantial implications for climate change adaptation of the region’s critical infrastructure.

A number of major factors have driven the volume and nature of aeolian geomorphology in the second half of the twentieth century: the growth of process studies; the availability of remote sensing, the development of new dating techniques (e.g. optical dating), the utilization of new technologies (e.g. data loggers and global positioning systems); computer modelling of dune forms, wind action and sediment movement; the recognition of the importance of aeolian forms and processes in extraterrestrial settings (especially Mars); the role of aeolian dust in atmospheric processes; the search for analogues for ancient hydrocarbon-bearing strata; the appreciation of the importance of climatic changes in desert areas; a concern with what may happen to arid environments in a warmer world; and an increasing realization that aeolian phenomena could be hazardous. This chapter does not deal with coastal dunes, but concentrates on those of the major lower-latitude drylands. It discusses the main controls on dune forms, the nature of sand seas, ancient and modern, and the nature of dune sediments. It also shows that during the 1970s there was a burgeoning interest in dust storms. In addition, with the availability of remote sensing imagery, it was possible to see for the first time that wind-furrowed yardangs were striking features with a wide global distribution. The origin of closed depressions (pans) generated a large literature, and hypotheses for their formation were put forward that included wind erosion, solution, excavation by animals, karstic and pseudo-karstic solution, and tectonic subsidence. Remote sensing showed just how important they were in drylands. Other phenomena that attracted attention and some controversy were stone pavements and peri-desert loess. Finally, it is suggested that the nature of aeolian processes and forms will be modified in a warmer world.

Deformations of the coastal accumulative profile during a full storm cycle can be related both to the special aspects of individual storms and to seasonal cycles of wave activity. There is a concept of a “winter” and a “summer” type of coastal profile. The difference between these types of profiles is the isolation of the outer underwater berm in winter due to the transfer of sand material to depth and an increase of slopes in the surf zone in summer due to the transfer of sand material to the shore. In this case, the post-storm relief is determined by the character of the wave intensity reduction phase, i.e., the storm attenuation phase. The attenuation of the storm can be prolonged and accompanied by local peaks in wave heights, which will decrease gradually. In this case, the storm has a high potential for beach recovery and the underwater berm may shift toward the shore. In another case, storm attenuation can occur relatively quickly – the original profile is not recovered and at the end of the storm, the profile shape reflects the erosion in the peak phase. Relevant is the determination of the special features of the resulting deformations at the end of the storm cycle, in particular at the end of the storm attenuation phase. In this paper, the special features of storm deformations of the coastal sand profile, which were observed during field experiment on the Bulgarian coast and during monitoring observations on the Baltic Spit, are considered. In one case (the Bulgarian coast) it is a transition from the typical “summer” profile to the “winter” profile. In another case (Baltic Spit), a shift of the outer underwater berm toward the shore was revealed, which can be considered as a transition to the “summer” profile. It is revealed that the features of the storm attenuation stage in the two cases under consideration have specific differences. It is shown that transformations of the coastal profile, characterized as seasonal, can occur during the full cycle of a single storm event.

Rapid intensification of near-landfall tropical cyclones is very difficult to predict, and yet has far-reaching consequences due to their disastrous impact to the coastal areas. The focus for improving predictions of rapid intensification has so far been on environmental conditions. Here we use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System to simulate tropical cyclones making landfall in South China: Nida (2016), Hato (2107) and Mangkhut (2018). Two smaller storms (Hato and Nida) undergo intensification, which is induced by the storms themselves through their extensive subsidence ahead of the storms, leading to clear skies and strong solar heating of the near-shore sea water over a shallow continental shelf. This heating provides latent heat to the storms, and subsequently intensification occurs. In contrast, such heating does not occur in the larger storm (Mangkhut) due to its widespread cloud cover. This results imply that to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes prior to landfall, it is necessary to correctly simulate the short-term evolution of near-shore ocean conditions. Air subsidence ahead of tropical cyclones can bring on rapid intensification and consequent clear skies that warm the water column in shallow shelf waters and under limited cloud cover, according to experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.

Coastal cliff erosion is alongshore-variable and episodic, with retreat rates that depend upon sediment as either tools of abrasion or protective cover. However, the feedbacks between coastal cliff planform morphology, retreat rate, and sediment cover are poorly quantified. This study investigates Sargent Beach, Texas, USA, at the annual to interannual scale to explore (1) the relationship between temporal and spatial variability in cliff retreat rate, roughness, and sinuosity and (2) the response of retreat rate and roughness to changes in sand and shell hash cover of the underlying mud substrate as well as the impact of major storms using field measurements of sediment cover, erosion, and aerial images to measure shore platform morphology and retreat. A storm event in 2009 increased the planform roughness and sinuosity of the coastal cliff at Sargent Beach. Following the storm, aerial-image-derived shorelines with annual resolution show a decrease in average alongshore erosion rates from 12 to 4 m yr−1, coincident with a decrease in shoreline roughness and sinuosity (smoothing). Like the previous storm, a storm event in 2017 increased the planform roughness and sinuosity of the cliff. Over shorter timescales, monthly retreat of the sea cliff occurred only when the platform was sparsely covered with sediment cover on the shore platform, indicating that the tools and cover effects can significantly affect short-term erosion rates. The timescale to return to a smooth shoreline following a storm or roughening event, given a steady-state erosion rate, is approximately 24 years, with the long-term rate suggesting a maximum of ∼107 years until Sargent Beach breaches, compromising the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) under current conditions and assuming no future storms or intervention. The observed retreat rate varies, both spatially and temporally, with cliff face morphology, demonstrating the importance of multi-scale measurements and analysis for interpretation of coastal processes and patterns of cliff retreat.

In arid and semiarid regions from the southwestern USA and vast areas of northwestern Mexico, Santa Ana wind events modify the environment with high temperatures, very low humidity, and dust storms representing a recurrent phenomenon that triggers asthma and other respiratory diseases. While research has emphasized Santa Ana wind effects on the USA side, northwestern Mexico has been less investigated. Numerical modeling of a severe dust storm in November 2018, applying the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry module (WRF-Chem), revealed that erosion, transport, and dust storms extend along the peninsula and the Gulf of California. Santa Ana winds eroded large areas, transported desert conditions to urban zones, causing high dust concentrations and reducing the relative humidity below 10%, deteriorating climatic conditions favorable to wellness. In Tijuana, Mexicali, Ensenada, San Diego, and Los Angeles, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (particle matter with diameter below 10 µm and 2.5 µm) reached values over 2000 µg/m3 for PM10, with daily mean concentrations well above national standards, leading to poor air quality and representing a health threat even in short-term exposure. This Santa Ana event transported dust particles several hundreds of kilometers over urban areas, the Gulf of California, and the Pacific Ocean. Severe soil deterioration was simulated within the study area, reaching dust emissions above 700,000 t, including croplands from the northern part of Baja California and Sonora's coastal area.

Environmental changes have led to non-stationary flood risks in coastal cities. How to quantitatively characterize the future change trend and effectively adapt is a frontier scientific problem that needs to be solved urgently. To this end, this study uses the 2010 Shanghai land use data as the base and uses the GeoSOS-FLUS model to simulate future land use change scenarios (2030, 2050, and 2100). Based on the results of storm and flood numerical simulations, probabilistic risk, and other multidisciplinary methods, extreme storm and flood risks of various land uses (residential land, commercial and public service land, industrial land, transportation land, agricultural land, and other land) in Shanghai are analyzed and 4 adaptation strategies to deal with extreme flooding have been developed. The research results show that: 1) Under the two emission scenarios, residential, commercial and public service, and industrial land have the highest exposure assets. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the exposure of assets in 2100, 2050, and 2030 will be 1.7 times, 1.5 times, and 1.3 times that in 2010 for 1/1000-year, respectively; the losses will be 2.7 times, 2.0 times, and 1.8 times that in 2010, respectively. 2) The spatial pattern of loss, which forms the scattered distribution of 1/10-year, is mainly distributed on both sides of the Huangpu River. For 1/1000-year, which is mainly gradually showed a strip distribution, continuous distribution of the city center, and the Qingpu-Songjiang depression in the southwest are high-risk areas for storm floods. 3) The risks are mainly distributed in the city center, the lower reaches of the Huangpu River, the northern shore of Hangzhou Bay, the Qingpu-Songjiang depression in the southwest, and Chongming Island (southwest and northeast). Our work can provide decision-making basis for risk-sensitive based urban planning, flood risk adaptation, and resilience building in Shanghai. The methodology can also provide a reference for risk assessment in other coastal areas.

Hurricane Harvey (Harvey) struck the Texas coast 25–27 August, 2017, and produced massive flooding of the Galveston Bay tributaries. The slow release of floodwaters from the Barker and Addicks Reservoirs, west of Houston, produced a 48-day flood across metro-Houston through via Buffalo Bayou, through the San Jacinto Estuary (SJE), before flowing into Galveston Bay. To quantify the thickness and mass of sediment which was delivered to Galveston Bay as well as the mass of mercury (Hg), a series of 56 pushcores were collected from across Galveston Bay, including the San Jacinto Estuary, Trinity Bay, Galveston Bay, East Galveston Bay, Clear Lake, and Dickinson Bayou. X-radiographs of each core was used to quantify the thickness of the flood layer and average water content of the cores was used to estimate bulk density of the cores in the estimation the flood deposit mass. Using average Hg concentrations from each core, combined with the bulk densities, Hg mass calculations were made for the sub-bays and the entire bay system. Within Galveston Bay and the SJE, Harvey deposited 131.34 × 106 t of sediment, representing 31 years of average annual sediment load to the bay. The combined Galveston Bay and SJE Harvey deposit contains 5.09 t of Hg. This Hg was primarily sourced from legacy Hg which had been archived in lower Buffalo Bayou and the SJE due to elevated land subsidence and as a result of historical releases from industrial wastewater, primariy from Patrick Bayou, a small tributary of lower Buffalo Bayou. Harvey flooding eroded nearly the entire upper 0.5 cm of lower SJE, resulting in the erosion of 16.4 × 106 t of sediment, containing at least 3.43 t of Hg, from the SJE and Patrick Bayou, dispersing it within Galveston Bay. The floodwater during peak discharge rapidly exited Galveston Bay into the Gulf of Mexico. In contrast, the slow release from the Barker and Addicks Reservoirs resulted in prolonged hydraulic trapping of both floodwaters and suspended sediment within Trinity and upper Galveston Bay. The prolonged hydraulic trapping contributed to the broad dispersal of Hg across Galveston Bay and also increased the potential exposure of marine organisms to the elevated concentrations of Hg within the suspended sediment. With the increase in slow-moving storms and the archiving of legacy contaminants within urbanized estuaries, especially where there is elevated land subsidence, suggests that the impact and dispersal of legacy contaminants within Galveston Bay by Harvey is a harbinger of things to come for other urbanized estuaries throughout the world.

Wave overtopping at a sea dike was observed using video images during a storm in July 2018 at Rizhao Coast, China. A shore-based video monitoring system was mounted to collect coastal images with a sample frequency of 1 Hz in the beginning 10 min of each hour during daylight. A method to extract the frequency, location, width and duration of individual overtopping events based on the shore-based video monitoring system was developed. A total of 6 252 individual overtopping events were detected over a 360m long sea dike during the storm of 10 h in a safe and labor-saving way, enabling a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial variation of wave overtopping. The temporal variation of overtopping duration, frequency and volume is basically in sync with the change of tidal level (R = 0.87, 0.82 and 0.76, respectively). The increase of wave height increases the overtopping frequency significantly. We found a high correlation between the hourly observed data and the predicted results of two commonly used formulae. Unlike the previous field measurements of overtopping that were limited in a single location, significant spatial variation of overtopping in the alongshore direction is found. The overtopping volume varies with a factor of 6 within the range of several wave lengths. It is further revealed that the spatial variation of overtopping is highly correlated with the alongshore variation of surf zone width with a correlation coefficient of 0.895. The present study suggests the feasibility of shore-based video monitoring technique to capture the main features of wave overtopping at coastal dikes, providing new possibilities to monitor wave overtopping in the field and to improve prediction tools.

The present study investigated the storm wise runoff collected in farm pond with the runoff estimated by Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and Soil Conservation Service (SCS-CN) models. The SWMM and SCS-CN models estimated runoff depth storm wise. The runoff depths correspond to the catchment area given the runoff volume from the catchment. The runoff depth estimated from the Storm Water Management Model and Soil Conservation Service model was compared against the depth of runoff estimated from the Water balance model. For small rainfall depths, the runoff estimated from the Storm Water Management Model was at par with the actual runoff volume stored at the pond. It is necessary to know the watershed runoff contribution to the river or streams due to rainfall in order to determine environmental risk or flood potential. In larger rainfall depth, the runoff volume estimated from the SWMM model was less than the stored runoff volume at Farm Pond. The Soil Conservation Service Model gave better results for larger rainfall depth compared to Storm Water Management Model. SWMM was able to simulate runoff depth for small rainfall depths of 2mm. The peak runoff depths were produced by rainfall depths of 35.5mm. Initial abstractions of the study area for antecedent moisture content i.e. AMC I, AMCII and AMCIII are 53.2, 23.91 and 10.43mm, respectively. The comparison showed that both SWMM and SCS-CN models gave better runoff quantification results.

We identify 14 mechanisms, marine and non-marine, one man made, that result and could result in the formation of boulder deposits after reviewing issues associated with clast shape, size and classification. Four of these mechanisms: storm deposits; waterspouts; cliff collapse; and catastrophic flooding below sea level, may produce deposits stretching for significant distances along shorelines which could be confused with historical or prehistoric tsunami deposits. However, recent debate has more specifically focused on parameters that can be employed in the distinction between coarse-grained tsunami and storm deposits, both of which can occur in the same location. We argue that features such as size, areal distribution and clast shape are not uniquely characteristic of either deposit. Rather, a wide variety of parameters, which reflect the period and the frequency of the transporting waves, need to be taken into account. Such analyses may be aided by profiles which evaluate the variation in modeled flow velocities with distance from the shoreline. Finally, we compare and contrast characteristics of coarse grained tsunami deposits with those of northeast Atlantic storm deposits that may aid in the identification of the transporting wave.

The large-scale water-induced erosion is one of the most determining elements on land degradation in subtropical monsoon-dominated region. From this large-scale erosion, the fertility of the agricultural land has been decline consequently. So, estimation of the amount of erosion and its accurate prediction is necessary for escaping from this hazardous situation. In this study, the application of evidential belief function (EBF), spatial logistic regression (SLR) and ensemble of EBF and SLR to estimate the erosion potentiality with the help of ArcGIS and Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The average annual soil erosion has been estimated with the help of revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and geographical information system (GIS). Apart from this to evaluate the importance of morphotectonic parameters on soil erosion, the correlation between erosion potentiality and average annual soil erosion has been quantified. In large-scale erosion, there is a direct impact of storm rainfall event in monsoon period in the entire subtropical region. Here, in erosion potentiality assessment, the optimal capacity of ensemble EBF-SLR is higher than the single alone methods, i.e., EBF and SLR. So, the mentioned approaches can be applied in soil erosion research in subtropical environment with considering the erosion causal parameters. This type of information can be helpful to the decision-maker and stakeholders to take proper initiative to reducing the rate of erosion. The main task of the future researcher is to implement this method more accurate ways with considering more reliable variables and slight modifications of the approaches in keeping in the view of regional environment.

Barrier islands are dynamic environments that experience gradual change from waves, tides, and currents, and rapid change from extreme storms. These islands are expected to change drastically over the coming century due to accelerated sea-level rise and changes in frequency and intensity of storm events. The dynamic nature of barrier islands coupled with the importance of these environments make it critical for natural resource managers to understand how habitats on barrier islands are changing or may change over time to determine when and where management actions may be needed. In this study, we applied a habitat change assessment framework, which included exploring areal coverage and distribution changes and change component analysis. Change component analysis, which breaks differences into net gain/loss and allocation difference (i.e., habitat oscillation), has not previously been used to study barrier island habitat evolution. Here, we demonstrate the approach using habitat predictions from a geomorphic modeling effort on Dauphin Island, Alabama (USA). We explored differences of habitat predictions for potential island configurations with and without a beach and dune restoration action under future conditions related to sea level and storminess. We found a potential linkage between landward migration of barrier islands and exchange, an output of change component analysis. The hypothesis may be tested to explore whether this linkage applies over space and time and whether the approach is applicable to monitoring landward migration of coastal wetlands. Collectively, our results highlight the utility of change component analysis for monitoring and quantifying barrier island habitat change and migration.

The sedimentological and palaeoecological interpretation of early Miocene age shallow marine deposits from one of the most emblematic geological areas of Taiwan – Yehliu peninsula – is not easy to ...

Few paleotempestological studies have focused on coastal sinkholes, a common feature in Florida, which can receive and preserve storm overwash sediments. The major goal of this research is to improve our understanding of the characteristic signatures of storm sediments in sinkholes thereby determining reliability of these environments as proxies for hurricanes. Hurricane Irma as a category 5 storm provides an excellent case study for characterizing storm deposits in sinkholes on Big Pine Key. We cored at four sinkholes along a 350 m transect normal to the shoreline. Core sediments were characterized using physical description, short-lived radioisotope dating, sediment grain size analysis, loss-on-ignition, microfossil analysis, and x-ray fluorescence elemental analysis. We found that Irma deposits had higher abundances of marine foraminifera, less total organic matter and elevated Si/Al and Ca/Ti ratios, compared to pre- or post-Irma sediments. In addition, there was a thinning of the storm sediments along the inland transect. Consequently, we propose that sinkholes, particularly those that are closer to the shoreline, can provide reliable sites for paleotempestology studies.

The Ward to Cheviot section of State Highway 1 is a key lifeline transport route that runs through the Kaikōura township. It is a strategically important link in the national state highway network, connecting the North Island via the Wellington-Picton ferry to the city of Christchurch in the South Island. Its strategic importance and vulnerable location between the mountainous Kaikōura range and the Pacific Ocean make it a critical transportation route in the national transport network. The route has been a focus for understanding the resilience of transport networks from as far back as 2000, when this section was used as a pilot study in early research into transport resilience. A further resilience assessment of this section was completed as part of a national state highway resilience study in mid-2016. Subsequently, the Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake struck the northeast of the South Island on 14 November 2016, triggering thousands of large landslides and causing severe disruption to the transport network. The damage and disruption caused by the earthquake was comparable to that assessed in pre-earthquake studies of the resilience of the state highway. Landslides and embankment failures caused the most damage and disruption to the transport infrastructure, with the Main North Line railway closed for over 9 months and State Highway 1 closed for over a year. Post-earthquake landslides and debris flows triggered by storms caused additional damage and disruption during the recovery phase. Post-earthquake assessment of the corridor resilience was carried out to identify measures to enhance resilience as part of the recovery works. These measures included realigning the road and rail away from the steep hillsides, engineered works to reduce the potential for slope failure, and engineered works to reduce the potential for inundation of the corridor. The resilience assessments also enabled tactical and operational measures to be put in place to ensure safety while allowing the recovery operations to proceed in the context of enhanced risk associated with storm events and potential aftershocks.

Wind wave modeling (WAVEWATCH III model) is used to analyze the storm activity in the Kara Sea for the period from 1979 to 2019. The NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis data used as forcing. Simulations realized on the nonstructural grid with a resolution of 700 m to 10 km. The quality of wind wave simulation is assessed through a comparison with direct measurements and satellite data. The storm wave frequencies are analyzed separately for each year. It is found that storms with waves more than 3 m are observed on average about 30 times a year. The frequency of storms with waves more than 3–5 m increased twofold from 1979 to 2019. The increase in the storm frequency is due to a decrease in the sea ice cover extent. Analysis of the seasonal variations in storm activity shows that the largest amount of storms is observed from July to December. A strong positive trend in the frequency of storms is observed from October to December. Storms in January, February, and March have been observed since 2005 due to the absence of ice, which contributes significantly to the ultimate increase in the storm frequency.

China experiences one of the most frequent flood disasters in the world. Establishing accurate and reliable flood prediction program is the key to deal with flood disasters. Nanshui Reservoir Basin, in southern China, belongs to subtropical monsoon climate, with more rain in spring, concentrated rainstorm in summer and typhoon storm in autumn. Floods at dam site are mostly small and medium-sized floods with steep rise and slow fall as typical mountain flood. In order to explore the applicability of Liuxihe model in flood prediction of Nanshui Reservoir, this paper builds up Liuxihe model for Nanshui Reservoir based on DEM, land use and soil type data, and selects a typical flood event to optimize the parameters using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and verifies the accuracy of the model by simulating the other floods. Liuxihe model established in this paper indicates a satisfactory performance for flood prediction for Nanshui Reservoir, which can meet the accuracy requirement of flood prediction. Finally, the effects of different river grading and PSO algorithm on flood prediction are discussed. The results show that the PSO algorithm can obviously improve the accuracy of the Liuxihe model for flood forecast in Nanshui Reservoir. The simulation based on four-level channel grading has better results than that based on three-level channel, which indicates increased peak flood value, delayed peak time and closer simulation to the measured value.

Flash floods present significant heterogeneity over both space and time due to diverse topographic, geomorphologic, and hydro-meteorological conditions of catchments. Accurate identification and simulation of typical flash flood types are of great significance for the mitigation of flash flood disasters at national scale. Three flood peak indices and dynamic indices were adopted to characterize the behavioral variability of flash floods. The typical flash flood types and corresponding behavior indices were identified and simulated using statistical analysis (i.e., principal component analysis, dynamic K-means clustering, and analysis of similarity) and hydrological modelling (i.e., HEC and XAJ models). There were 177 flash flood events at hourly scale being selected for case study from eight catchments with various climatic and geographic characteristics. Results showed that all the flash flood events were clustered into three types (named Types 1, 2, and 3). The Type 1 was characterized by low peak flow intensity, early flood peak occurrence time, and thin flood process with short duration. The Type 2 was characterized by low peak flow intensity, late flood peak occurrence time, and flat flood process with long duration. The Type 3 was characterized by high peak flow intensity and late flood peak occurrence time. Flash flood types showed high consistency with their influencing factors (e.g., catchment forest ratio and drainage area, occurrence time and magnitude of maximum storm intensity, and concentration of a storm event). The simulation performances were basically the same for HEC and XAJ models. As for flash flood event simulations, the average relative error varied from 23.25% to 27.98%, from 11.95% to 18.19%, and from 8.30% to 18.25% for Types 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient varied from 0.39 to 0.54, from 0.76 to 0.85, and from 0.86 to 0.91, respectively. As for the six flash flood behavior indices simulations, the average relative root-mean-square error (RMSEr) varied from 0.37 to 0.69, from 0.37 to 0.41, and from 0.18 to 0.25 for Types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The average correlation coefficient (r) varied from 0.52 to 0.68, from 0.78 to 0.85, and from 0.88 to 0.94, respectively. The flood peak indices were the best simulated for Types 2 and 3 with RMSEr varying from 0.18 to 0.28 and r varying from 0.86 to 0.91. The flood dynamic indices were the best simulated for Type 3 with RMSEr varying from 0.19 to 0.21 and r varying from 0.91 to 0.97. The study provided detailed flood information supports for flood management at catchment scale, and also provided new insights into flash flood simulations in small and medium-sized catchments from perspective of flood behavioral processes.

Landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA) is a method used to reduce landslide vulnerability defined as landslide spatial prediction with the help of associative factors. The goal of the analysis is to forecast potential (2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 AC) rainfall and land use and land cover (LULC) with the aid of the CSIRO-MK3.6.0 General circulation models (GCMs) climatic model and the dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) model. The purpose of this work is to produce landslide susceptibility map (LSM) of potential cycles correlated with expected rainfall and LULC data utilizing the binary logistic regression (BLR) models in the Upper Rangit River basin of eastern Himalayan region, India. Including rainfall and LULC total nineteen factors have been incorporated, these are mainly topographical, hydrological, geological, and environmental factors. A total 671 landslide locations have been mapped which divided randomly as training (70%) and validation (30%) datasets of LSM. Current (2018) LSM was validated by 30% of landslide inventory location and the result of area under curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) indicated that the LSM has 92.4% and 89.6% of the success and prediction rate respectively. To demonstrate the accuracy of the BLR landslide susceptibility (LS) model, this model was used to generated future LSMs based on projected of rainfall and LULC. The result of projected representative concentration pathway (RCP)-based rainfall depicted that the increasing trend of rainfall in the future period and the moderate to very high LS zones has also increased from 2040 to 2100. This study will be used to further study of landslide hazard (LH) studies with climatic approaches, and will also contribute to regional planning and development of current and future Upper Rangit River basin.

The causes of climate patchy rope in heat up temperature, change in precipitation, degree of utmost conditions occasions like melting of glaciers, polar ice-caps, mount in sea levels, etc. These impacts eventually fall our income by touching the rations we eat, the water we drink, the air we breathe and the earth somewhere we live. Frequent impacts caused fitting to excessive exposure of heat waves such as round stroke, dehydration, cardiovascular, respiratory and neural comborbidities. Climate conversion alters the ecology of vectors and these vectors are capable of have in stock causal agents such as viruses, bacteria and protozoa from animals to humans. Malaria, tick-borne encephalitis, fair fever, plague, and dengue obtain lengthened their geographical ranges as their carriers migrated to privileged latitudes. Droughts canister take part in adverse property on being health, as they over and over again suggest itself in mishmash with other sit out conditions, such as warm waves, wildfires and dust storms. Reduced water quantity may cause decreased water flow during periods of drought, encouraging the development of pathogens which prefer dry, stagnant environments. Altering climatic situation know how to be attributed to mounting international temperatures, spread in the dimensions of ambient fill up fumes and changes in the announce motion as mutual together. Extreme season and climate-related actions are famous to set off fundamental infrastructure failures, lucrative harm and relocation of communities, ensuing in a quantity of health problems.

Ecologically similar species partition their use of resources and habitats and thus coexist due to ecological segregation in space, time, or diet. In seabirds, this segregation may differ over the annual cycle or vary inter-annually. We evaluated niche segregation in 3 sympatric storm-petrel species (Hydrobates melania, H. leucorhous, and H. microsoma) from the San Benito Islands, Mexico, during 2012 and 2013. We used diet samples and carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopic values obtained from egg membranes, blood, feathers, and prey. We used krill samples to delineate marine δ13C and δ15N isoscapes for the Baja California Peninsula. During the breeding season, storm-petrels segregated regarding diet composition, stable isotope values, and isotopic niches. H. melania consumed higher trophic-position prey from neritic waters, while H. leucorhous and H. microsoma foraged on lower-trophic position prey from oceanic waters. Isotopic niches among species did not overlap in 2013, whereas those of H. microsoma and H. leucorhous overlapped in 2012. The feeding strategies of H. melania varied among breeding phases, and adults consumed different prey items from different areas compared to those of their offspring. H. microsoma adults and their chicks consumed the same prey items but from different habitats. During the non-breeding period, niche segregation between species persisted, except for H. microsoma and H. leucorhous during the molt of primary (P1) and undertail cover feathers. These 3 sympatric species coexist through niche segregation based on prey items and foraging areas that vary seasonally and year-round, probably due to changes in oceanographic conditions and the distribution and availability of prey.

Check dams are commonly constructed around the world for alleviating soil erosion and preventing sedimentation of downstream rivers and reservoirs. Check dams are more vulnerable to failure due to their less stringent flood control standards compared to other dams. Determining the critical precipitation that will result in overtopping of a dam is a useful approach to assessing the risk of failure on a probabilistic basis and for providing early warning in case of an emergency. However, many check dams are built in groups, spreading in several tributaries in cascade forms, comprising a complex network. Determining the critical precipitation for dam overtopping requires a knowledge of its upstream dams on whether they survived or were overtopped during the same storm, while these upstream dams in turn need the information for their upstream dams. The current paper presents an approach of decomposing the dam cluster into (1) the heading dam, (2) border dams, and (3) intermediate dams. The algorithm begins with the border dams that have no upstream dams and proceeds with upgraded maps without the previous border dams until all the dams have been checked. It is believed that this approach is applicable for small-scale check dam systems where the time lag of flood routing can be neglected. As a pilot study, the current paper presents the analytical results for the Wangmaogou Check Dam System that has 22 dams connected in series and parallel. The algorithm clearly identified 7 surviving dams, with the remaining ones being overtopped for a storm of 179.6 mm in 12 h, which is associated with a return period of one in 200 years.

One of the significant natural pollutants in the atmosphere is the mineral dust aerosols. In the northern hemisphere, Arabian Peninsula is one of the significant sources of dust aerosols with the frequency of dust storms changing seasonally. Dust emitted from the Arabian Peninsula region transports towards the Indian region through prevailing winds, therefore a positive correlation between the extreme dust episodes over the Arabian region and air quality over the Indian region is generally observed. Therefore, there is a need to monitor and forecast such an episodic event over the Arabian Peninsula and surrounding regions so that substantial measures may be taken in Indian subcontinent to mitigate the adverse impact of low air quality on human being and several other sectors such as aviation, energy and infrastructure. In the present study, the WRF-Chem simulations for dust particles are assessed against the observational data sets (i.e. MERRA-2, MODIS-Terra, Aura-OMI, CPCB). Based on the comparison of WRF-Chem simulated data sets with the satellite/reanalysis data, it is noted that in the post-monsoon season, WRF-Chem model can capture the entire dust episode (emission, transportation and dissipation) reasonably well. From the statistical analysis (PDF, CDF, Scatter plot and Temporal evolution), it was noted that there was a consistent underestimation of the simulated dust by WRF-Chem as compared to the observational data sets. A statistically robust categorical analysis has also been carried out for assessing the performance of WRF-Chem with respect to the observations for each dust event, and it is noted that on an average the probability of detection of dust event is about 77% and false alarm ratio is about 15% with an overall accuracy of 76%. Results obtained from the present analysis are encouraging and would be useful for the assessment of WRF-Chem simulations for other seasons also.

Coastal communities in New Jersey (NJ), New York (NY), and Connecticut (CT) sustained huge structural loss during Sandy in 2012. We present a comprehensive science-based study to assess the role of coastal wetlands in buffering surge and wave in the tri-state by considering Sandy, a hypothetical Black Swan (BS) storm, and the 1% annual chance flood and wave event. Model simulations were conducted with and without existing coastal wetlands, using a dynamically coupled surge-wave model with two types of coastal wetlands. Simulated surge and wave for Sandy were verified with data at numerous stations. Structural loss estimated using real property data and latest damage functions agreed well with loss payout data. Results show that, on zip-code scale, the relative structural loss varies significantly with the percent wetland cover, the at-risk structural value, and the average wave crest height. Reduction in structural loss by coastal wetlands was low in Sandy, modest in the BS storm, and significant in the 1% annual chance flood and wave event. NJ wetlands helped to avoid 8%, 26%, 52% loss during Sandy, BS storm, and 1% event, respectively. This regression model can be used for wetland restoration planning to further reduce structural loss in coastal communities.

The Antarctic Peninsula of West Antarctica was one of the most rapidly warming regions on the Earth during the second half of the 20th century. Changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with remote tropical climate variabilities have been considered as leading drivers of the change in surface conditions in the region. However, the impacts of climate variabilities over the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere on this Antarctic warming have yet to be quantified. Here, through observation analysis and model experiments, we reveal that increases in winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tasman Sea modify Southern Ocean storm tracks. This, in turn, induces warming over the Antarctic Peninsula via planetary waves triggered in the Tasman Sea. We show that atmospheric response to SST warming over the Tasman Sea, even in the absence of anomalous tropical SST forcing, deepens the Amundsen Sea Low, leading to warm advection over the Antarctic Peninsula., The Antarctic Peninsula sees some of the strongest warming of the whole continent over the last decades, the drivers of which are not well known. Here, the authors show that winter sea surface temperature increases in the Tasman sea lead to changes in Southern Ocean storm tracks that in turn warm the Antarctic Peninsula.

The Mississippi River basin (MRB) is a flash flood hotspot receiving the most frequent flash floods and highest average rainfall accumulation of any region in the United States. Given the destruction flash floods cause in the current climate in the MRB, it is critical to understand how they will change in a future, warmer climate in order to prepare for these impacts. Recent work utilizing convection-permitting climate simulations to analyze future precipitation changes in flash flood–producing storms in the United States shows that the MRB experiences the greatest future increase in flash flood rainfall. This result motivates the goal of the present study to better understand the changes to precipitation characteristics and vertical velocity in flash flood–producing storms in the MRB. Specifically, the variations in flash flood–producing storm characteristics related to changes in vertical velocity in the MRB are examined by identifying 484 historical flash flood–producing storms from 2002 and 2013 and studying how they change in a future climate using 4-km convection-permitting simulations under a pseudo–global warming framework. In a future climate, precipitation and runoff increase by 17% and 32%, respectively, in flash flood–producing storms in the MRB. While rainfall increases in all flash flood–producing storms due to similar increases in moisture, it increases the most in storms with the strongest vertical velocity, suggesting that storm dynamics might modulate future changes in rainfall. These results are necessary to predict and prepare for the multifaceted impacts of climate change on flash flood–producing storms in order to create more resilient communities.

The increase in freight traffic between central and northern European countries and the countries of the Black Sea coast requires an increase in shipping along the Danube River. The Danube is the seventh international transport corridor, which unites the countries of Europe and Asia. The deepening of the Bystrii estuary of the Kiliya’s delta of the Danube ensures the implementation of the transport route between the Danube and the Black Sea. The protection of the Marine channel of the Danube-Black Sea deep-sea passage from sediment during storms is provided by a protective dam. The purpose of the research is to study the peculiarities of the wave action on the fragments of an existing protective dam, determine the effective means of its protection and develop recommendations for creating a dam design that is resistant to storm loads. The results of numerical and physical simulation of wave loads on a protective dam of the Marine channel of the Danube-Black Sea deep-water passage are presented. Experimental studies were carried out to study the features of the wave action on a fragment of the dam model. The integral and spectral characteristics of the pressure field on the streamlined surface of the dam model are obtained for the conditions of the passage of storm short and long waves. The features of the wave motion transformation near the dam and the characteristic regions of the frequency spectrum of the wave pressure on its surface are shown. Studies have been carried out to determine the sustainable structure of the dam and a step-like dam with two berms that can withstand storm loads is proposed.

Urbanization has resulted in increased contaminant run-off in densely populated areas. Climate change is expected to result in a higher frequency of extreme weather events including torrential rainfall and storms. The contaminant levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), chlorinated paraffins (CPF) and selected metals, in a small urban river were monitored during snow-melting and rainfall events to quantify the contribution to the contamination load of receiving waters of the inner Oslo fjord, Norway. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) was characterized with respect to levels of contaminants as well as toxic response using a battery of bioassays. The contaminant flux from the river to the fjord was quantified and assessed relative to sediment data. Historic data for near-shore sediment samples from the fjord were used to document urban input. The results show a clear episodic response in contaminant load emitted from the river to the fjord. The main historic input to the fjord was found to be PAH from pyrogenic sources like coal and wood burning as well as traffic. A significant reduction in the level of PAH was observed since the 1980s. The measured flux of CPF is consistent with on-going societal use despite a ban on the use of short chain CPF imposed in Norway from 2002.

In 1999, a lightning storm ignited 7 million scrap tires piled on the slopes of a canyon near Westley, California. A near-apocalyptic scene erupted, according to a 2001 US Environmental Protection ...

Estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and corresponding probable maximum flood (PMF) are necessary for planning, design, and risk assessment of flood control structures whose failure could have catastrophic consequences. For PMP estimation, multifractal approach (MA) is deemed to be better than conventional approaches, which are based either on statistical concepts or physical aspects. The MA yields physically meaningful PMP estimates by attempting to capture scale-invariant multiplicative cascade mechanism inherent in rainfall. This paper attempts to gain insights into the performance of MA by comparing PMP estimates obtained using the approach with those resulting from the use of two widely used empirical approaches (storm maximization approach (SMA) and Hershfield method (HM)) on two flood-prone river basins (Mahanadi and Godavari) in India. The results indicate that rainfall data of the two river basins exhibit multifractal properties, and the use of MA has an advantage over HM and SMA in estimating PMP corresponding to longer durations (>3 days). PMP estimates obtained using HM are generally lower (higher) than those obtained using SMA for 1-day (higher) duration. PMP maps are prepared for the two Indian river basins corresponding to 1-day to 5-day durations. Further, PMP estimates obtained based on the PMP maps are provided for 18 catchments in the Mahanadi basin and 53 catchments in the Godavari river basin.

We examine the magnitude, frequency, and precipitation threshold of the extreme flood hazard on 37 low-order streams in the lower Stehekin River Valley on the arid eastern slope of the North Cascades. Key morphometric variables identify the magnitude of the hazard by differentiating debris flood from debris flow systems. Thirty-two debris flow systems are fed by basins 10°. Five debris flood systems have larger drainage areas and debris fans with slopes 7–10°. The debris flood systems have Melton ruggedness ratios from 0.42–0.64 compared to 0.78–3.80 for debris flow basins. We record stratigraphy at seven sites where soil surfaces buried by successive debris flows limit the age of events spanning 6000 years. Eighteen radiocarbon ages from the soils are the basis for estimates of a 200 to1500-year range in recurrence interval for larger debris flows and a 450 ± 50-year average. Smaller events occur approximately every 100 years. Fifteen debris flows occurred in nine drainage systems in the last 15 years, including multiple flows on three streams. Summer storms in 2010 and 2013 with peak rainfall intensities of 7–9 mm/h sustained for 8–11 h triggered all but one flow; the fall 2015 event on Canyon Creek occurred after 170 mm of rain in 78 h. A direct link between fires and debris flows is unclear because several recent debris flows occurred in basins that did not burn or burned at low intensity, and basins that burned at high intensity did not carry debris flows. All but one of the recent flows and fires occurred on the valley’s southwest-facing wall. We conclude that fires and debris flows are linked by aspect at the landscape scale, where the sunny valley wall has flashy runoff due to sparse vegetation from frequent fires.

Storm geysers increasingly occur in sewer systems under climate change and rapid urbanization. Mitigation measures are in great demand to avoid safety problems. In this study, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics models of single-inlet and multi-inlet systems were established to investigate geysering induced by rapid filling and assess the effectiveness of potential mitigation methods. The modeling results suggest that increasing the capacity of the downstream pipe before the inflow front reaches the chamber can effectively reduce the maximum geyser pressure. The peak pressure can be significantly mitigated when the chamber size is designed with care and the drop height between the upstream and downstream pipes is reduced. A diversion deflector with air vents and an orifice plate at the riser top end can alleviate the maximum pressure by about 65% with about 75% of the entrapped air being released. The peak pressure during the geyser event in the multi-inlet model is less than that of a single-inlet model under the same total inflow condition, but more water can be released. HIGHLIGHTS A small drop height between the connecting pipes can effectively reduce the maximum pressure during rapid filling.; Mitigation measures including flow deflectors and orifice plates were studied to alleviate geyser intensity.; Intermittent air–water jets can be generated much more easily in a system with multiple inlets, and the peak pressure is generally small but more water can be released.