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The Toba volcanic system in Indonesia has produced two of the largest eruptions (>2,000 km(3) dense-rock equivalent [DRE] each) on Earth since the Quaternary. U–Pb crystallization ages of zircon span a period of ∼600 ky before each eruptive event, and in the run-up to each eruption, the mean and variance of the zircons’ U content decrease. To quantify the process of accumulation of eruptible magma underneath the Toba caldera, we integrated these observations with thermal and geochemical modeling. We show that caldera-forming eruptions at Toba are the result of progressive thermal maturation of the upper crustal magma reservoir, which grows and chemically homogenizes, by sustained magma influx at average volumetric rates between 0.008 and 0.01 km(3)/y over the past 2.2 My. Protracted thermal pulses related to magma-recharge events prime the system for eruption without necessarily requiring an increased magma-recharge rate before the two supereruptions. If the rate of magma input was maintained since the last supereruption of Toba at 75 ka, eruptible magma is currently accumulating at a minimum rate of ∼4.2 km(3) per millennium, and the current estimate of the total volume of potentially eruptible magma available today is a minimum of ∼315 km(3). Our approach to evaluate magma flux and the rate of eruptible magma accumulation is applicable to other volcanic systems capable of producing supereruptions and thereby could help in assessing the potential of active volcanic systems to feed supereruptions.

Distal skarns form by the metasomatic reactions of a host rock induced by far-traveled hydrothermal fluids. Physical and structural characteristics and geochemical patterns of distal Pb Zn skarn bodies were studied at the Petrovitsa deposit in southern Bulgaria. Skarn bodies formed from the interaction of hydrothermal fluids with reactive host lithologies (marble and gneiss). These fluids were transported along sub-vertical feeder structures and lithological contacts. Epidote skarn developed in gneiss protolith, and pyroxene (johannsenite) skarn developed in marble. Detailed geological mapping, complimented by measurements of the internal structure of the skarn body using pyroxene growth versors, quantifies the propagation direction of the skarn body: 1) away from the major local fluid conduit (feeder structure), and 2) away from lithological contacts between aluminosilicate rock and marble. Such growth suggests that fluid flow was generally orthogonal to the skarn front propagation direction in the pyroxene skarn. Textural, mineralogical and geochemical data from skarn samples reveal multiple growth generations of major skarn calc-silicates epidote and pyroxene. The epidote skarn is characterized by limited spatial distribution and fine-grained epidote/clinozoisite growth associated with massive replacement and sulfide mineralization. The pyroxene skarn consists of acicular clinopyroxene crystals which form spheroidal aggregates with discrete growth banding. These bands are the physical representation of the cyclic fluid pulses which resulted in rhythmic skarn growth marked by geochemical banding. In situ geochemical analyses in the epidote skarn reveal early Al-rich epidote overprinted by Fe-rich epidote associated with higher Mn and Sr contents and irregular compositional banding. Clinopyroxene (Jo60–95) shows general increase in Na, Al, Mn, and REE + Y with distance from the feeder structure and lithologic contacts. These elements correlate with the distance traveled by the hydrothermal fluid from the feeder to the site of skarnification, which we define using a proxy based on the Al content of pyroxene crystals. This reflects an increasing degree of fluid “contamination” by interaction with the aluminosilicate host rocks and functions as a proxy for fluid transport distance. The spatial distribution of trace-elements in pyroxene on an outcrop scale is indicative of discrete pulses of hydrothermal fluid resulting in precipitation of skarn calc-silicates along the increasingly tortuous fluid pathway between the feeder structure and the skarn front, resulting in both the macro- and micro-scale chemical and textural variability of the skarn body.

The Adamello intrusive suite is a composite batholith in Northern Italy, with an estimated 2000 km3 volume, assembled incrementally over a time span of 10 to 12 million years. The history of crystallization has been studied in detail through laser ablation ICP-MS and SIMS U–Pb geochronology of zircon, which records prolonged crystallization of each of the different intrusive units at mid-crustal levels between 43·47 and 33·16 Ma. The magmas were episodically extracted from this storage area and ascended to the final intrusion level at ∼6 km paleo-depth. Each batch of melt cooled very rapidly down to the ambient temperature of 250°C, evidenced by distinct cooling paths recorded by amphibole, biotite and K-feldspar 40Ar/39Ar dates. The magma source area was moving from SW to NE with time, causing increasing thermal maturity in the mid-crustal reservoir. The resulting temporal trend of higher degrees of crustal assimiliation in the course of the evolution of the magmatic system can be traced through Hf and O isotopes in zircon. Rough estimates of magma emplacement rates (‘magma flux’) yield very low values in the range of 10-4 km3/yr, typical of mid-to-upper crustal plutons and increase with time. Although we cannot discern a decrease of magma flux from our own data, we anticipate that a dramatic decrease of magma flux between 33 and 31 Ma along the northern contact lead to cessation of magma emplacement. ISSN:0022-3530 ISSN:1460-2415

The ca. 1,500 to 1,325 Ma Mesoproterozoic Belt-Purcell Basin is an exceptionally preserved archive of Mesoproterozoic Earth and its paleoenvironmental conditions. The Belt-Purcell Basin is also host to world-class base metal sediment-hosted mineralization produced in a variety of settings from the rift stage of basin evolution through the subsequent influence of East Kootenay and Grenvillian orogenies. The mineral potential of this basin has not been fully realized yet. New rhenium-osmium (Re-Os) data presented here for chalcopyrite, pyrite, and black shale contribute to refine a robust genetic model for the origin of the Black Butte copper +/- cobalt +/- silver (Cu +/- Co +/- Ag) deposit hosted by the ca. >1,475 Ma Newland Formation in the Helena Embayment of the Belt-Purcell Basin in Montana, USA. Chalcopyrite Re-Os data yield an isochron age (1,488 +/- 34 Ma, unradiogenic initial Os-187/Os-188 composition Osi-ctudcoprite = 0.13 +/- 0.11) that overlaps with the geological age of the Newland Formation. Further, the Re-Os data of synsedimentary to diagenetic massive pyrite yield evidence of resetting with an isochron age (1,358 +/- 42 Ma) coincident with the timing of the East Kootenay orogeny. The unradiogenic Osi-ctudcoprite at ca. 1,488 Ma (0.13 +/- 0.11) argues for derivation of Os from a magmatic source with a Os-18(7)/Os-18(8) isotopic composition inherited from the upper mantle in the Mesoproterozoic (Os-mantle (1,475 Ma) = 0.12 +/- 0.02). The unradiogenic Osi-ctudcoprite also suggests limited contamination from a continental crustal source. This source of Os and our new sulfur isotopic signatures of chalcopyrite (-4.1 to +2.1 parts per thousand-VCDT) implies a dominantly magmatic source for metals. We integrate our new results and previously published geological and geochemical evidence to conceptualize a genetic model in which Cu and metals were largely contributed by moderate-temperature, reduced magmatic-hydrothermal fluids carrying reduced sulfur species with a magmatic origin and flowing as highly metalliferous fluids within the shale sequence. A subsidiary derivation of metals during thermally forced shale diagenesis is possible. Chalcopyrite mineralization replaced locally massive synsedimentary to diagenetic pyrite units close to the sediment-water interface, i.e., an ideal locus where magmatic-hydrothermal fluids could cool and the solubility of chalcopyrite would fall. We suggest that Cu mineralization was coeval with the timing of an enhanced thermal gradient in the Helena Embayment triggered until ca. 1,455 Ma by tholeiitic dike swarm that intruded into Archean basement rocks and intersected the NE-SW-trending Great Falls Tectonic Zone. ISSN:1941-8264 ISSN:1947-4253

Establishing a quantitative link between magmatic processes occurring at depth and volcanic eruption dynamics is essential to forecast the future behaviour of volcanoes, and to correctly interpret monitoring signals at active centres. Chemical zoning in minerals, which captures successive events or states within a magmatic system, can be exploited for such a purpose. However, to develop a quantitative understanding of magmatic systems requires an unbiased, reproducible method for characterising zoned crystals. We use image segmentation on thin section scale chemical maps to segment textural zones in plagioclase phenocrysts. These zones are then correlated throughout a stratigraphic sequence from Saint Kitts (Lesser Antilles), composed of a basal pyroclastic flow deposit and a series of fall deposits. Both segmented phenocrysts and unsegmented matrix plagioclase are chemically decoupled from whole rock geochemical trends, with the latter showing a systematic temporal progression towards less chemically evolved magma (more anorthitic plagioclase). By working on a stratigraphic sequence, it is possible to track the chemical and textural complexity of segmented plagioclase in time, in this case on the order of millennia. In doing so, we find a relationship between the number of crystal populations, deposit thickness and time. Thicker deposits contain a larger number of crystal populations, alongside an overall reduction in this number towards the top of the deposit. Our approach provides quantitative textural parameters for volcanic and plutonic rocks, including the ability to measure the amount of crystal fracturing. In combination with mineral chemistry, these parameters can strengthen the link between petrology and volcanology, paving the way towards a deeper understanding of the magmatic processes controlling eruptive dynamics. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-021-01476-x.

Linking tectonic setting to eruptive activity in volcanic arcs provides a framework to understand processes that control the production, accumulation and eruption of magma on Earth. We use the Holocene eruptive records of 162 volcanoes, which are selected based on an assessment of recording biases, to calculate the probability of recording large eruptions (between Magnitudes 4 and 7). We quantify regional variability in the sizes of volcanic eruptions and compare it with subduction parameters influencing the generation, transport and storage of magma. Given the tectonic setting of a subduction zone is multidimensional (e.g., age, speed, obliquity of the subducting plate) we use a graphical model to explore the strength of probabilistic relationships between tectonic and volcanic variables. The variable that exhibits the strongest probabilistic relationship with eruption size is convergence obliquity, with larger eruptions favored in settings where convergence is normal. Normal convergence favors the storage and accumulation of larger volumes of magma, whereas oblique convergence favors the transport and eruption of smaller volumes of magma. In low-obliquity arcs where magma storage is promoted, the subduction of older slabs results in higher mantle productivity, which thermally favors the accumulation of eruptible magma and larger eruptions on average. However, the highest mantle productivity also results in more frequent magma injection and pressurization of crustal reservoirs. Consequently, arcs with moderate slab ages and low obliquity produce the highest proportion of larger eruptions. In high-obliquity arcs mantle productivity does not dominantly control eruption sizes. Instead, thinner crust facilitates frequent transport of magma to the surface, resulting in smaller eruptions. For the largest eruptions on Earth (e.g., Magnitude 8), however, accumulation of eruptible magma will be dominantly controlled by thermomechanical modification of the crust and not the frequency of magma intrusion. Despite the importance of convergence obliquity, our results show that variability in the sizes of volcanic eruptions is controlled by complex relationships with other parameters including slab age and crustal thickness. By using a graphical model, we have been able to explore complex volcano-tectonic relationships. We suggest a similar approach could be extremely valuable for exploring other complex multidimensional datasets within the Earth Sciences.

Magmatic systems are the engines driving volcanic eruptions and the source of fluids responsible for the formation of porphyry-type ore deposits. Sudden variations of pressure, temperature and volume in magmatic systems can produce unrest, which may culminate in a volcanic eruption and/or the abrupt release of ore-forming fluids. Such variations of the conditions within magmatic systems are commonly ascribed to the injection of new magma from depth. However, as magmas fractionating at depth or rising to the upper crust release CO2-rich fluids, the interaction between carbonic fluids and H2O-rich magmas stored in the upper crust (CO2 flushing), must also be a common process affecting the evolution of subvolcanic magma reservoirs. Here, we investigate the effect of gas injection on the stability and chemical evolution of magmatic systems. We calculate the chemical and physical evolution of magmas subjected to CO2-flushing using rhyolite-MELTS. We compare the calculations with a set of melt inclusion data for Mt. St. Helens, Merapi, Etna, and Stromboli volcanoes. We provide an approach that can be used to distinguish between melt inclusions trapped during CO2 flushing, magma ascent and decompression, or those affected by post-entrapment H2O-loss. Our results show that CO2 flushing is a widespread process in both felsic and mafic magmatic systems. Depending upon initial magma crystallinity and duration of CO2 input, flushing can either lead to volcanic eruption or fluid release. We suggest that CO2 flushing is a fundamental process modulating the behaviour and chemical evolution of crustal magmatic systems.

Quantifying the frequency at which volcanic eruptions of different size occurs is impor- tant for hazard assessment. Volcanic records can be used to estimate the recurrence rate of large-magnitude eruptions (magnitude ≥4), but recording biases that impact data complete- ness complicate analysis. To overcome these biases, we conceptualize the volcanic record as a series of individual and unique time series associated by a common behavior. Thus, we approach issues of completeness on a volcano-by-volcano basis and use a hierarchical Bayes- ian approach to characterize the common frequency-magnitude (f-M) behavior for different groups of volcanoes. We identify variations in the f-M relationship between different volcano types and between different volcanic arcs. By accounting for systematic under-recording in the volcanic record, we also calculate the global recurrence rates for large-magnitude erup- tions during the Holocene, which are similar to previous estimates. However, higher recur- rence rates for smaller-magnitude events are observed, which is a result of our adjustments for data completeness. Quantifying how the f-M relationship varies between different groups of volcanoes provides an opportunity to understand how the tectonic setting in uences f-M behavior, which is important to quantify long-term regional volcanic hazard.

Volcanic eruptions demonstrate that our planet is alive and evolving. Take photos of volcanoes around the Earth and you will see that they all look different, but also share important features. Some volcanoes come in perfect conical shapes, while others are much flatter and harder to spot. This is just like humans, some are tall and others are short, or some have dark hair while others have light hair. This is important because the shape of a volcano can tell scientists about what sort of eruption can occur—the volcano's personality! Humans are different from volcanoes—they can look very similar but have very different personalities. Here, we explain how the different personalities of volcanoes can be defined, and how this can help scientists and people around the world to predict the future impacts of volcanic eruptions.

Magmatic crystals are characterised by chemical zonation patterns that reflect the thermal and chemical conditions within magma reservoirs in which they grew. Crystals that exhibit similar patterns of zonation are often interpreted to have experienced similar conditions of growth. These patterns of zonation may represent continuous processes such as cooling, or more instantaneous events such as magma injection, and provide an insight into the structure and evolution of a magmatic system, both temporally and spatially. We have developed an algorithm that is objectively able to quantify the similarity within and between suites of magmatic crystals from different samples. Significantly, the algorithm is able to identify correlation that occurs between the interiors of two crystals, but does not extend to the rim, which provides an opportunity to understand the long-term evolution of magmatic systems. We develop and explain the mathematical basis for our algorithm and introduce its application using cathodoluminescence images of zircons from the Kilgore Tuff (USA). The results allow us to correlate samples from two different outcrops that are found over 80 km apart.

Following a cessation in eruptive activity it is important to understand how a volcano will behave in the future and when it may next erupt. Such an assessment can be based on the volcano's long-term pattern of behaviour and insights into its current state via monitoring observations. We present a Bayesian network that integrates these two strands of evidence to forecast future eruptive scenarios using expert elicitation. The Bayesian approach provides a framework to quantify the magmatic causes in terms of volcanic effects (i.e., eruption and unrest). In October 2013, an expert elicitation was performed to populate a Bayesian network designed to help forecast future eruptive (in-)activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano. The Bayesian network was devised to assess the state of the shallow magmatic system, as a means to forecast the future eruptive activity in the context of the long-term behaviour at similar dome-building volcanoes. The findings highlight coherence amongst experts when interpreting the current behaviour of the volcano, but reveal considerable ambiguity when relating this to longer patterns of volcanism at dome-building volcanoes, as a class. By asking questions in terms of magmatic causes, the Bayesian approach highlights the importance of using short-term unrest indicators from monitoring data as evidence in long-term forecasts at volcanoes. Furthermore, it highlights potential biases in the judgements of volcanologists and identifies sources of uncertainty in terms of magmatic causes rather than scenario-based outcomes.

Between 5 and 6 million years ago, during the so-called Messinian salinity crisis, the Mediterranean basin became a giant salt repository. The possibility of abrupt and kilometre-scale sea-level changes during this extreme event is debated. Messinian evaporites could signify either deep-or shallow-marine deposits, and ubiquitous erosional surfaces could indicate either subaerial or submarine features. Significant and fast reductions in sea level unload the lithosphere, which can increase the production and eruption of magma. Here we calculate variations in surface load associated with the Messinian salinity crisis and compile the available time constraints for pan-Mediterranean magmatism. We show that scenarios involving a kilometre-scale drawdown of sea level imply a phase of net overall lithospheric unloading at a time that appears synchronous with a magmatic pulse from the pan-Mediterranean igneous provinces. We verify the viability of a mechanistic link between unloading and magmatism using numerical modelling of decompression partial mantle melting and dyke formation in response to surface load variations. We conclude that the Mediterranean magmatic record provides an independent validation of the controversial kilometre-scale evaporative drawdown and sheds new light on the sensitivity of magmatic systems to the surface forcing., P.S. is grateful to the Swiss NSF for providing funding for this project (Ambizione grant PZ00P2_168113/1). L.C. and T.E.S. were funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 677493-FEVER). D.G.-C. was funded by the MITE CGL2014-59516 (Spanish Government). S.C. was funded by Swiss NSF grant No. 200021-146822.

A key question for volcanic hazard assessment is the extent to which information can be exchanged between vol- canoes. This question is particularly pertinent to hazard forecasting for dome-building volcanoes, where effusive activity may persist for years to decades, and may be punctuated by periods of repose, and sudden explosive ac- tivity. Here we review historical eruptive activity of fifteen lava dome-building volcanoes over the past two cen- turies, with the goal of creating a hierarchy of exchangeable (i.e., similar) behaviours. Eruptive behaviour is classified using empirical observations that include patterns of SO2 flux, eruption style, and magma composition. We identify two eruptive regimes: (i) an episodic regime where eruptions are much shorter than intervening pe- riods of repose, and degassing is temporally correlated with lava effusion; and (ii) a persistent regime where erup- tions are comparable in length to periods of repose and gas emissions do not correlate with eruption rates. A corollary to these two eruptive regimes is that there are also two different types of repose: (i) inter-eruptive re- pose separates episodic eruptions, and is characterised by negligible gas emissions and (ii) intra-eruptive repose is observed in persistently active volcanoes, and is characterised by continuous gas emissions. We suggest that these different patterns of can be used to infer vertical connectivity within mush-dominated magmatic systems. We also note that our recognition of two different types of repose raises questions about traditional definitions of historical volcanism as a point process. This is important, because the ontology of eruptive activity (that is, the definition of volcanic activity in time) influences both analysis of volcanic data and, by extension, interpretations of magmatic processes. Our analysis suggests that one identifying exchangeable traits or behaviours provides a starting point for developing robust ontologies of volcanic activity. Moreover, by linking eruptive regimes to con- ceptual models of magmatic processes, we illustrate a path towards developing a conceptual framework not only for comparing data between different volcanoes but also for improving forecasts of eruptive activity.

Estimating the hazard associated with a volcanic eruption requires an understanding of previous eruptive episodes to forecast future events. This involves calculating how destructive a future eruption is likely to be by estimating the magnitude of eruptive activity and likelihood of various hazardous phenomena. Importantly though, eruptive histories for individual volcanoes can suffer from a lack of observations and thus might not be representative for all future eruption scenarios. Consequently, a methodology is developed to combine eruptive histories from multiple volcanoes into an event tree framework to inform forecasts at individual volcanoes. It is based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach in which model parameters are derived for a group of volcanoes and then updated on an individual basis. However, eruptive histories are not simply aggregated and the model allows for possible heterogeneities in eruptive regimes. Continuous probability distributions are employed to capture the relative uncertainties of both global and individual records and posterior distributions for eruption magnitudes and hazardous phenomena are computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The model is designed to initially include no subjective judgement of probabilities but is developed so that information from other analyses can be incorporated. While this article uses the hierarchical Bayesian approach specifically for event forecasting, the methodology has the potential to be used in a wide range of problems regarding hazard assessment and for the purposes of causal inference and data reduction.

The isochron technique for dating geological events is widely used in many fields of isotope geochemistry. However, data sets can be complex, and many samples may not behave as closed systems, resulting in excess scatter around a regression line. In certain data sets, however, excess scatter may result when geological samples are partially reset or when samples are comprised of multiple components recording different geological processes separated in time and/or initial isotope composition. Here we introduce a new approach for investigating evidence of such multicomponent mixtures within isochron space. We provide a mathematical framework to resolve the number of mixture components, without requiring any prior knowledge of this number. Crucially, the model reports the proportion of each individual sample that belongs to each mixture component, allowing the user to return to the samples and independently test model outputs with other techniques. It is important to distinguish accurate and meaningful ages and initial daughter isotope compositions from the meaningless values that are caused by mismatch between geological processes and the models that we use to describe them. First, we demonstrate our new model on a synthetic data set to show that it can successfully separate distinct isochrons in a complex mixture. We further validate our approach with a previously published data set using the 187Re‐187Os system in bitumen and 147Sm/144Nd system in magmatic rocks. We identify discrete components in these data sets and using complementary geological observations discuss the implications of treating these scattered data as recording multiple geological processes.