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The open ocean region of southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) (~ 5° N–10° N; 87° E–97° E) is characterized as the region of low chlorophyll-a concentration (

Using empirical orthogonal function analysis, a stationary atmospheric wavenumber-4 (AW4) pattern is identified in the Southern mid-latitudes during austral summer. The generation mechanism and its linkage to the Southern Hemisphere climate are explored using a linear response model and composite analysis. It is found that AW4 pattern is forced by a Rossby wave source in the upstream region of the upper-tropospheric westerly waveguide. The vortex stretching associated with the anomalous convection over the subtropical western Pacific Ocean (near the New Zealand coast) adjacent to the westerly jet triggers the Rossby wave train around mid-November. This disturbance gets trapped in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet waveguide and circumnavigates the globe. Around 15–25 days later (in early December), a steady AW4 pattern is established in the Southern mid-latitudes. Further, correlation analysis suggests the AW4 pattern is independent of other natural variabilities such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, and Indian Ocean Dipole. The AW4 pattern is found to influence the rainfall over different parts of South America and Australia by modulating upper-level divergence.

The Indian Ocean presents two distinct climate regimes. The north Indian Ocean is dominated by the monsoons, whereas the seasonal reversal is less pronounced in the south. The prevailing wind pattern produces upwelling along different parts of the coast in both hemispheres during different times of the year. Additionally, dynamical processes and eddies either cause or enhance upwelling. This paper reviews the phenomena of upwelling along the coast of the Indian Ocean extending from the tip of South Africa to the southern tip of the west coast of Australia. Observed features, underlying mechanisms, and the impact of upwelling on the ecosystem are presented. In the Agulhas Current region, cyclonic eddies associated with Natal pulses drive slope upwelling and enhance chlorophyll concentrations along the continental margin. The Durban break-away eddy spun up by the Agulhas upwells cold nutrient-rich water. Additionally, topographically induced upwelling occurs along the inshore edges of the Agulhas Current. Wind-driven coastal upwelling occurs along the south coast of Africa and augments the dynamical upwelling in the Agulhas Current. Upwelling hotspots along the Mozambique coast are present in the northern and southern sectors of the channel and are ascribed to dynamical effects of ocean circulation in addition to wind forcing. Interaction of mesoscale eddies with the western boundary, dipole eddy pair interactions, and passage of cyclonic eddies cause upwelling. Upwelling along the southern coast of Madagascar is caused by the Ekman wind-driven mechanism and by eddy generation and is inhibited by the Southwest Madagascar Coastal Current. Seasonal upwelling along the East African coast is primarily driven by the northeast monsoon winds and enhanced by topographically induced shelf breaking and shear instability between the East African Coastal Current and the island chains. The Somali coast presents a strong case for the classical Ekman type of upwelling; such upwelling can be inhibited by the arrival of deeper thermocline signals generated in the offshore region by wind stress curl. Upwelling is nearly uniform along the coast of Arabia, caused by the alongshore component of the summer monsoon winds and modulated by the arrival of Rossby waves generated in the offshore region by cyclonic wind stress curl. Along the west coast of India, upwelling is driven by coastally trapped waves together with the alongshore component of the monsoon winds. Along the southern tip of India and Sri Lanka, the strong Ekman transport drives upwelling. Upwelling along the east coast of India is weak and occurs during summer, caused by alongshore winds. In addition, mesoscale eddies lead to upwelling, but the arrival of river water plumes inhibits upwelling along this coast. Southeasterly winds drive upwelling along the coast of Sumatra and Java during summer, with Kelvin wave propagation originating from the equatorial Indian Ocean affecting the magnitude and extent of the upwelling. Both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events cause large variability in upwelling here. Along the west coast of Australia, which is characterized by the anomalous Leeuwin Current, southerly winds can cause sporadic upwelling, which is prominent along the southwest, central, and Gascoyne coasts during summer. Open-ocean upwelling in the southern tropical Indian Ocean and within the Sri Lanka Dome is driven primarily by the wind stress curl but is also impacted by Rossby wave propagations. Upwelling is a key driver enhancing biological productivity in all sectors of the coast, as indicated by enhanced sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. Additional knowledge at varying levels has been gained through in situ observations and model simulations. In the Mozambique Channel, upwelling simulates new production and circulation redistributes the production generated by upwelling and mesoscale eddies, leading to observations of higher ecosystem impacts along the edges of eddies. Similarly, along the southern Madagascar coast, biological connectivity is influenced by the transport of phytoplankton from upwelling zones. Along the coast of Kenya, both productivity rates and zooplankton biomass are higher during the upwelling season. Along the Somali coast, accumulation of upwelled nutrients in the northern part of the coast leads to spatial heterogeneity in productivity. In contrast, productivity is more uniform along the coasts of Yemen and Oman. Upwelling along the west coast of India has several biogeochemical implications, including oxygen depletion, denitrification, and high production of CH4 and dimethyl sulfide. Although weak, wind-driven upwelling leads to significant enhancement of phytoplankton in the northwest Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon. Along the Sumatra and Java coasts, upwelling affects the phytoplankton composition and assemblages. Dissimilarities in copepod assemblages occur during the upwelling periods along the west coast of Australia. Phytoplankton abundance characterizes inshore edges of the slope during upwelling season, and upwelling eddies are associated with krill abundance. The review identifies the northern coast of the Arabian Sea and eastern coasts of the Bay of Bengal as the least observed sectors. Additionally, sustained long-term observations with high temporal and spatial resolutions along with high-resolution modelling efforts are recommended for a deeper understanding of upwelling, its variability, and its impact on the ecosystem.

After its maturity, El Nino usually decays rapidly in the following summer and evolves into a La Nina pattern. However, this was not the case for the 2018/19 El Nino event. Based on multiple reanalysis data sets, the space-time evolution and triggering mechanism for the unusual second-year warming in late 2019, after the 2018/19 El Nino event, are investigated in the tropical Pacific. After a short decaying period associated with the 2018/19 El Nino condition, positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) re-intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2019. Compared with the composite pattern of El Nino in the following year, two key differences are evident in the evolution of SSTAs in 2019. First, is the persistence of the surface warming over the central equatorial Pacific in May, and second, is the re-intensification of the positive SSTAs over the eastern equatorial Pacific in September. Observational results suggest that the re-intensification of anomalous westerly winds over the western and central Pacific, induced remotely by an extreme Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, acted as a triggering mechanism for the second-year warming in late 2019. That is, the IOD-related cold SSTAs in the eastern Indian Ocean established and sustained anomalous surface westerly winds over the western equatorial Pacific, which induced downwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward along the equator. At the same time, the subsurface ocean provided plenty of warm water in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budget analyses further confirm that positive zonal advection, induced by the anomalous westerly winds, and thermocline feedback played important roles in leading to the second-year warming in late 2019. This study provides new insights into the processes responsible for the diversity of El Nino evolution, which is important for improving the physical understanding and seasonal prediction of El Nino events.

The termination of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events is examined in terms of equatorial wave dynamics. In situ and satellite observations combined with an output from a linear wave model are used in this study. Our emphasis is on the 1997 IOD event but our results apply to other positive IOD events as well. We find that the termination of anomalously cold sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern pole of the dipole is associated with a warming tendency caused by the net surface heat fluxes. However, net surface heat fluxes alone cannot explain the total change in the SST. We show that during the peak phase of an IOD event, the weakening of zonal heat advection caused by eastern boundary-generated Rossby waves combined with the reduction of vertical entrainment and diffusion creates favorable conditions for surface heat fluxes to warm the SST in the eastern basin.

For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead. However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their interpretation. Despite this, an increasing number of studies have shown promising results and this is an active area for research. In this paper, we discuss insights gained from previous studies using a novel combined water balance and data-driven approach for two of Africa's largest lakes, Lake Victoria and Lake Malawi. Factors which increased predictability included the unusually long hydrological response times and statistically significant links to ocean-atmosphere processes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Other lessons learned included the benefits of data assimilation and the need for care in the choice of performance metrics.

Directional characteristics of wind-waves is an important quantity in wave prediction and in the design of offshore engineering facilities. Dissipative and non-dissipative processes contribute to the changes in direction and energy flux of waves, and the resulting sea-state. This study carried out an extreme climatological analysis of swell waves in terms of energy flux (PSW) and directional distribution of energy (DS) using 42 years (1979–2020) of ERA5 reanalysis data. A Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is used to produce the seasonal and monthly extremes. During JJA (June–July–August), the monsoon swells that dominate over the Arabian Sea and the northern Bay of Bengal are exceptionally stable. The western coasts of Madagascar, Sumatra, Myanmar are also stable in context to swell energy due to wave refraction effects. The Ds for extra-tropical swells are influenced by the presence of several island arcs in the TIO (Tropical Indian Ocean). A comprehensive analysis was performed to establish the dependence of climate indices on PSW and DS using Multi-linear regression analysis. Study reveals that the influence of Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the swell energy distribution is significant in the extra-tropical regions and moderate over the North Indian Ocean. The directional swell energy flux distribution has a strong dependence with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the TIO, in particular for the nearshore regions. Interestingly, the positive IOD phase is found to actively influence the DS along the East coast of India. Spectral characteristics of swells are critically influenced by island barriers in the TIO during its propagation, in addition the climate indices also play an important role in the modulation effect.

Detailed ocean currents in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Sumatran and Javan coasts have not been fully explained because of limited observations. In this study, zonal current characteristics in the region have been studied using simulation results of a 1/8∘ global hybrid coordinate ocean model from 1950 to 2013. The simulated zonal currents across three meridional sections were then investigated using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF), where the first three modes account for 75 %–98 % of the total variance. The first temporal mode of EOF is then investigated using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to distinguish the signals. This study has revealed distinctive features of currents in the South Java Current (SJC) region, the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF)–South Equatorial Current (SEC) region, and the transition zone between these regions. The vertical structures of zonal currents in southern Java and offshore Sumatra are characterized by a one-layer flow. Conversely, a two-layer flow is observed in the nearshore and transition regions of Sumatra. Current variation in the SJC region has peak energies that are sequentially dominated by semiannual, intraseasonal, and annual timescales. Meanwhile, the transition zone is characterized by semiannual and intraseasonal periods with pronounced interannual variations. In contrast, interannual variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modulates the prominent intraseasonal variability of current in the ITF–SEC region. ENSO has the strongest influence at the outflow ITF, while the IOD's strongest influence is in southwestern Sumatra, with the ENSO (IOD) leading the current by 4 months (1 month). Moreover, the contributions (largest to smallest) of each EEMD mode at the nearshore of Java and offshore Sumatra are intraseasonal, semiannual, annual, interannual, and long-term fluctuations. The contribution of long-term variation (19.2 %) in the far offshore eastern Indian Ocean is larger than the interannual (16.3 %) and annual (14.7 %) variations. Future studies should be conducted to investigate this long-term variation.

Numerical experiments using a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model show the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on the Pacific Ocean through the oceanic channel known as the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) by isolating the role of the atmospheric bridge. The 2019 Positive IOD and 2016 Negative IOD events can force enhanced and decreased ITF transport through subsurface processes. Currents and sea level anomalies allowed a thorough comparison between 2016 and 2019 IOD events. The upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves can propagate through the Indonesian seas along the Sumatra–Java island chain, forcing SSHA in the southeastern basin to grow quickly and reach the western Pacific Ocean. The numerical results suggest that the 2016 negative IOD could cause an El Nino-like state and that the 2019 positive IOD could cause a La Nina-like state in the Pacific Ocean.

In the Bay of Bengal (BoB), surface circulation is strongly influenced by the Indian Monsoon and notable local eddying that modulates the East India Coastal Current (EICC). In this study, we apply an eddy tracking algorithm to 25 years (1993-2018) of satellite altimetric observations to identify, analyze, and track mesoscale eddies in the BoB from their generation to dissipation. We compare the characteristics and trajectories of these eddies during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoon seasons and during the pre- and post-SW monsoon periods to better understand the seasonality of the local eddy field. We find high eddy generation in the eastern BoB associated with instability induced by coastal Kelvin waves and the westward propagating Rossby waves, but we found the most robust eddies in the western BoB around the EICC. Ocean heat content (OHC) in the BoB was compared with warm-core eddies and we find that warm-core eddies drive changes in OHC. We also compared the eddy field during strong and weak SW monsoon forcing and with varying Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, finding a statistically significant relationship with warm-core eddies and sea surface temperatures (SSTs; R2 = 91%) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR; R2 = 88%) during periods of strong ENSO and IOD forcing. To understand the impact of these eddies on local atmospheric convection we found the composite surface structure of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies of warm-core and cold-core SSTs, finding a close relationship between the eddy-composite SSTs and OLR.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can reduce the amount of rainfall in Indonesia. The previous study found that ENSO and IOD derived from the OISST dataset have an association with hotspots in Indonesia, especially in southern Sumatra dan Kalimantan. But the correlation results are still too small, and the correlation strength between regions has not been analyzed. Therefore, this study quantifies the association of the estimated ENSO and IOD derived from the ERA5 dataset on hotspots in Indonesia based on a Heterogeneous Correlation Map (HCM) and analyzes the correlation strength between regions in Indonesia. We use a singular value decomposition method to quantify this HCM. Besides OISST, ERA5 is an estimation data often used for weather forecast analysis. Therefore, this study quantifies the association of the estimated ENSO and IOD derived from the ERA5 dataset on hotspots in Indonesia based on a Heterogeneous Correlation Map (HCM) and analyzes the correlation strength between regions in Indonesia. Based on variance explained and correlation strength, the hotspot in Indonesia is more sensitive to ENSO and IOD derived from ERA5 than OISST. Consequently, the ERA5 data more useful to statistical analysis that requiring a substantial correlation.

This study investigates the relationship and underlying mechanisms between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Arctic sea ice. The results reveal that the preceding December sea ice over the Laptev Sea plays an important role in the formation of positive IOD conditions during April–June (AMJ). In years with positive December Laptev sea ice anomalies, the zonal wavenumber-1 (ZWN1) planetary wave component is stimulated at middle and high latitudes. The high-latitude ZWN1 propagates upward to the stratosphere and downward to the troposphere in December, affects the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, and further leads to a warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) that persists until the following February. The mid-latitude ZWN1 propagates upward to the stratosphere in January and downward to the troposphere in February, contributing to the positive 200-hPa geopotential height anomaly (GPHA) in the subtropical Atlantic. The ascending anomaly induced by the warm SSTA and the positive 200-hPa GPHA in the subtropical Atlantic in February are favorable for effective Rossby wave source formation and stimulate an atmospheric wave train that forms an anomalous cyclone over the northern Arabian Sea, which contributes to enhanced convection over North India, stimulating an anomalous anticyclone over East India and leading to reduced convection over the northeastern Indian Ocean in March. The reduced convection over the northeastern Indian Ocean may lead to strengthened equatorial easterly winds and further contribute to positive IOD conditions in AMJ. These findings indicate that December Laptev sea ice may contribute to AMJ IOD conditions.

Multisource satellite remote sensing data have been used to analyze the strong upwelling event off the southern coast of Sri Lanka in 2013 and its relationship with Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. The upwelling area in 2013 is 5.7 times larger than that in a normal year and lasts from June to August, with the peaks of the cooling anomaly reaching −1.5°C and the positive chlorophyll a concentration anomaly exceeding 3.1 mg m−3. In 2013, the negative unseasonable IOD (IODJJA) event enhances the southwest monsoon, while the blocking of the monsoon wind by the island results in a stronger westerly/northwesterly wind stress off the southern coast of Sri Lanka and a weaker westerly/northwesterly wind stress over the eastern Sri Lanka waters. This causes stronger offshore transport and positive Ekman pumping off the southern coast, forming a strong upwelling event there. Further analysis indicates that the interannual variability of the upwelling, as represented by a newly constructed index based on satellite observations, is primarily caused by the variations of local wind associated with the IOD. The upwelling off the southern coast of Sri Lanka weakens (strengthens) in the positive (negative) IOD years. However, an analysis based on 21 IOD events during 1982–2019 demonstrates that the effects of the three types of IOD events, including IODJJA, prolonged IOD (IODLONG), and normal IOD (IODSON), on the upwelling are different. Compared to the IODSON events, the IODJJA and IODLONG events tend to have stronger influences due to their earlier developing phases.

Author(s): Sena, ACT; Magnusdottir, G | Abstract: The influence of each phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on the large-scale circulation in South America is investigated using rainfall observations, fully coupled, large-ensemble, historical simulations (LENS), and forced experiments using the coupled model's atmospheric component. IOD events often occur when El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest source of interannual variability of precipitation in South America, is active. To distinguish from effects of ENSO, only cases during neutral ENSO conditions are analyzed in LENS and observations. During the positive IOD polarity, a perturbation in the local Walker circulation leads to increased convection over equatorial South America, resulting in wet anomalies in the Amazon basin. This signal is the opposite of what is expected during El Nino events. Tropical convection anomalies in the Indian Ocean also force an extratropical Rossby wave train that reaches subtropical South America. During positive IOD, the moisture flux from the Amazon to central and southeastern Brazil weakens, resulting in a drying of the area associated with the South Atlantic convergence zone. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic subtropical high strengthens, contributing to a drying in southeastern Brazil. During negative IOD, the induced wave train from the Indian Ocean leads to increased moisture transport to the La Plata basin, leading to wet anomalies in the region.

The present paper investigates changes in the feedback of Indian Ocean warming on the western Pacific by using observational data and model experiments. It is found that the relationship between easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and Indian Ocean warming during the mature and decaying phases of El Nino has changed since 1994. Before 1994, when El Nino reached its peak in the winter, significant warming of the entire Indian Ocean caused tropospheric temperature anomalies and emanated Kelvin waves into the western Pacific. Thus, Indian Ocean warming produced easterly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. However, significant warming of the Indian Ocean has been confined to the west of the Indian Ocean and Kelvin waves have been weakened since 1994. Therefore, the Indian Ocean has contributed less to easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific after 1994. Changes in the intensity and pattern of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode may be responsible for these results. After 1994, the intensity of the IOD, especially the intensity of the cold component of the IOD mode, has become stronger, resulting in Indian Ocean warming being confined to the west of the Indian Ocean. These results are confirmed by numerical model experiments. The paper also discusses the enhancement in the feedback of the north tropical Atlantic on El Nino after 1994.

In this study, we model extreme rainfall to study the high rainfall events in the province of South Sulawesi, Indonesia. We investigated the effect of the El Nino South Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD), and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on extreme rainfall events. We also assume that events in a location are affected by events in other nearby locations. Using rainfall data from the province of South Sulawesi, the results showed that extreme rainfall events are related to IOD and MJO.

Lead-lag correlations between the subsurface temperature/salinity anomalies in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are revealed in model results, ocean synthesis, and observations. Mechanisms for such correlations are further investigated using the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM), mainly on the salinity variability. It is found that the subsurface salinity anomaly of the BoB positively correlates to the IOD with a lag of three months on average, while the subsurface temperature anomaly negatively correlates. The model results suggest the remote forcing from the equatorial Indian Ocean dominates the interannual subsurface salinity variability in the BoB. The coastal Kelvin waves carry signals of positive (negative) salinity anomalies from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate counterclockwise along the coasts of the BoB during positive (negative) IOD events. Subsequently westward Rossby waves propagate these signals to the basin at a relatively slow speed, which causes a considerable delay of the subsurface salinity anomalies in the correlation. By analyzing the salinity budget of the BoB, it is found that the diffusion dominates the salinity changes near the surface, while the advection dominates the subsurface; the vertical advection of salinity contributes positively to this correlation, while the horizontal advection contributes negatively. These results suggest that the IOD plays a crucial role in the interannual subsurface salinity variability in the BoB.

An unprecedented extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event (pIOD) occurred in 2019, which has caused widespread disastrous impacts on countries bordering the Indian Ocean, including the East African floods and vast bushfires in Australia. Here we investigate the causes for the 2019 pIOD by analyzing multiple observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments. We find that the 2019 pIOD is triggered in May by easterly wind bursts over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with the dry phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, and sustained by the local atmosphere-ocean interaction thereafter. During September-November, warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central-western tropical Pacific further enhance the Indian Ocean’s easterly winds, bringing the pIOD to an extreme magnitude. The central-western tropical Pacific warm SSTA is strengthened by two consecutive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events that originate from the tropical Indian Ocean. Our results highlight the important roles of cross-basin and cross-timescale interactions in generating extreme IOD events. The lack of accurate representation of these interactions may be the root for a short lead time in predicting this extreme pIOD with a state-of-the-art climate forecast model.

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean is complex and characterized by various air-sea coupled modes, which occur around El Niño/La Niña's peak phase (i.e. December–January–February, DJF). Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) develops over the tropical Indian Ocean and peaks in September–October–November (SON), while Ningaloo Niño, Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) and Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) occur respectively over northwest off Australia, subtropical and tropical Indian Ocean, during boreal winter to spring. The apparent contrast between their divergent regionality and convergent seasonality around DJF triggers the present study to examine the interaction between the local mean monsoonal cycle and the anomalous forcing from El Niño/La Niña. The diagnosis confirms that the Indian Ocean’s unique complexity, including the monsoonal circulation over the tropics and the trade wind over the subtropical southern Indian Ocean, plays the fundamental role in anchoring the various regional air-sea coupled modes across the basin. The SST anomalies can be readily explained by the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) mechanism, which works together with other more regional-dependent dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms. This implies that El Niño/La Niña brings much predictability for the Indian Ocean variations.

Changes of the thermocline depth (DOT) at the Sumba Island offshore are not well-known compared to the DOT changes in the Timor Sea, the main exit passage of the Indonesian Through-flow (ITF). Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in cores collected from the southwest Sumba offshore (ST08) and Sumba Strait (ST12, ST13, and ST14) were used as a tool to infer the DOT and paleoproductivity changes at the Sumba Island offshore. The DOT changes were indicated from the thermocline and mixed layer dwellers’ relative abundance while the paleoproductivity changes were indicated from the relative abundance of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei. This study suggests a contrast between the DOT pattern at the Sumba Island offshore and the DOT pattern in the Timor Sea during the Last Deglaciation–Holocene. The contrast DOT pattern indicated that the multi-millennial changes of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon (AIM) during the Last Deglaciation– Holocene were the main factors behind the DOT changes in this region while the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) –like, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) –like, and ITF to DOT changes were minimal. Paleoproductivity enhancement at the Sumba Island offshore was not solely related to the monsoon-driven coastal upwelling intensification, which resulted in the DOT shoaling and eutrophic condition. The increase of nutrient availability in surface water due to river runoff increase and changes in the lifted water mass nature were also able to enhance productivity in this region., Područje ispitivanja nalazi se uz otok Sumba, a promjene dubine termokline (DOT) u ovoj regiji nisu dobro poznate u usporedbi s Timorskim morem. Zajednice planktonskih foraminifera korištene su za prepoznavanje DOT-a i promjene paleoproduktivnosti u jezgrama prikupljenim s jugozapadne Sumbe (ST08) i iz tjesnaca Sumba (ST12, ST13 i ST14). Ova studija sugerira da su tisućljetne promjene u režimu australsko-indonezijskoga monsuna (AIM) bile glavni čimbenik DOT promjena na jugozapadu Sumbe i tjesnaca Sumba nakon posljednje deglacijacije, što je stvorilo suprotne uvjete u odnosu na Timorsko more. Učinak poput južnih oscilacija El Niño (ENSO) i dipola Indijskoga oceana (IOD) sličnih DOT promjenama naznačen je samo oko kasnoga holocena, dok su promjene indonezijskoga protoka (ITF) utjecale samo na istočni tjesnac Sumba oko srednjega i kasnoga holocena. Produbljavanje termokline usko je povezano s poboljšanjem AIWM (AISM), El Niñom (La Niñom) i pozitivnim (negativnim) IOD-om. Poboljšanje paleoproduktivnosti nije bilo povezano samo s jačanjem DOT-a, već i s većom dostupnošću hranjivih sastojaka zbog povećanoga donosa slatke vode rijekama. Promjene u prirodi podignute vodene mase također su utjecale na promjene u paleoproduktivnosti.

Climate of the past : CP 17(1), 151-170 (2021). doi:10.5194/cp-17-151-2021, Published by Copernicus Ges., Katlenburg-Lindau

The current study examines the interannual rainfall variability and its associated atmospheric circulation in Tanzania during October-December (OND) rainfall season based on 1974 to 2010 climatology. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), composite and correlation analysis were used in this study. Years with enhanced precipitation are found to be associated with the low level moist and unstable wind from Congo basin which organizes and forms a confluent zone, an inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) extending from Congo to northern sector of the country. It however, characterizes low-level westerly moisture flux transport sourced from Congo basin, ascending limb of the local Indian Ocean Walker circulation over East Africa which enhances convection for wetness condition. Wet years are also coupled with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition. On the spatial scale, both the IOD and ENSO indices are well correlated with OND rains over the bimodal areas (Lake Victoria basin, North Eastern Highlands (NEH), and northern coast) with strong correlation being to the NEH. Strong temporal correlation is revealed between the OND rains and IOD (r = 0.6304) compared to ENSO (r = 0.5538) indicating that anomalous warming over the western Indian Ocean has a faster response to OND rains in Tanzania than the remote influence induced by anomalous warming from the central Pacific Ocean. The patterns associated with dry years are found to be linked with the low-level divergence accompanied by convergence in the upper level. This condition enhances continuous descending motion accompanied with suppression in rainfall activities. Dry years are also associated with negative IOD, cold phase of ENSO condition, descending limb of the Walker Circulation and significant reduction in the westerly moisture flux transport sourced from Congo basin towards the western sector and Lake Victoria basin.

The relationship of the tropical Indo-Pacific upper ocean heat content (HC) and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset during 1980-2020 was investigated. It was found that when HC anomalies in the preceding winter-spring are positive (negative) in the eastern Indian-western Pacific Ocean or negative (positive) in the southwestern Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific Ocean, SCSSM onset is usually early (late). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis suggested that the primary EOF modes of HC anomaly in both tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans are associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is through modulating the westerly over the north Indian Ocean-SCS and the western north Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) via the Walker circulation over the Indo-Pacific basin, monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean that the ENSO related Indo-Pacific HC variation connects with the SCSSM onset. Both the second EOF modes for the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean also show significant correlations with the SCSSM onset. The former related vertical motion over the SCS-far northwestern Pacific can influence the WNPSH and convection, thus occurrence of the SCSSM. The latter represents the intrinsic Indian Ocean HC variability; the air temperature variation associated with it can modulate the atmospheric circulation in the Indian Ocean-SCS through thermal wind balance, and thus the SCSSM onset by acting on the westerly over the SCS and the WNPSH. A western Pacific index and an Indian Ocean dipole index were defined to represent the leading HC modes in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. A binary linear regression model was constructed using these two indices to improve SCSSM onset prediction.

Using data on the distribution of temperatures in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, large-scale structures of spatial and temporal variations of these temperatures are investigated. A structure is found which is almost identical to the spatial and temporal sea surface temperature (SST) structure that is characteristic of the recently found Global Atmospheric Oscillation. Variations in water temperature in a near-equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean at depths up to about 150 m behave themselves in the same way as variations in sea surface height and SST. At even greater depths, variations in water temperature reveal a “striped” structure, which is, however, overall similar to that of SST variations. Variations of water temperature at depths in all three oceans spread from east to west along the equator with a period of 14 months. This makes it possible to think that the dynamics of these temperatures are controlled by the so-called Pole tides. The surface North Pacific Pole Tide was found previously responsible for excitation of El Nino. The deep Pole tides in the Southern Atlantic and Southern Indian Ocean appear to be triggers of the Atlantic El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Thus, IOD manifests itself at the depth of the thermocline more clearly than on the surface of the Indian Ocean. The out-of-phase behavior of El Nino and IOD is explained by the 180° difference in the longitudes of these phenomena.

Using the ERA-Interim data, the impacts of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are investigated. El Nino and La Nina are associated with weakening and strengthening of the moist southwesterly winds over the Indian subcontinent, respectively. There is a higher possibility for the occurrence of the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the eastern Pacific El Nino, causing cooler water and drier than normal conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean, but the opposite conditions in its western side. The Hadley circulation also responds to ENSO, such that anomalous subsidence develops over most parts of the Indian subcontinent during both the eastern and central Pacific El Nino events, causing a shorter duration of the ISM. The impact of the central Pacific El Nino on the Hadley circulation is stronger than that of the eastern Pacific El Nino. A strong correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies over the Indian subcontinent is identified during the pre-monsoon month of April, with positive and negative geopotential height anomalies during El Nino and La Nina, respectively. Thus, mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies in April can be used to predict the strength of the upcoming ISM.

The spatial and temporal variability of the high individual wave heights, which pose a hazard in India’s shelf seas, has not been investigated. In this study, the spatial and temporal variation of hourly maximum individual wave height (Hmax) in the Indian shelf seas is examined based on 40 years ERA5 Re-Analysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Waverider buoy data from five locations are used to assess ERA5 Hmax. The variability of Hmax in different temporal scales; daily, monthly and interannual and their linkages with major ocean-atmosphere coupled interaction in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean are presented. Wave climatology throughout India’s western shelf seas shows average Hmax exceeding 2 m during most of the year. Maximum Hmax in the western shelf seas is during May–July, whereas in the southern tip and the eastern shelf seas are during the tropical cyclones and are either in October–December or May. Maximum Hmax is 17.94 m, and it occurred at the northern Bay of Bengal on 25 May 2009 during the passage of tropical cyclone Aila. Spatial variations in Hmax between locations spaced at 1.5° latitude are less than 10% in the northwestern and southeastern shelf seas, but large variations (~ 28%) are in the southwestern and northeastern shelf seas. Annual mean Hmax shows contrasting trends when data for 1979 to 2018 and 1992 to 2018 is considered. Indian Ocean Dipole influence on the Hmax suggests negative correlations in the western shelf seas and positive correlations in the eastern shelf seas. The correlation with climate indices is similar for both significant wave height and Hmax.

Interannual variability (IAV) in the barrier layer thickness (BLT) and forcing mechanisms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) are examined using monthly Argo data sets during 2002–2017. The BLT during November–January (NDJ) in the EEIO shows strong IAV, which is associated with the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IOD), with the IOD leading the BLT by two months. During the negative IOD phase, the westerly wind anomalies driving the downwelling Kelvin waves increase the isothermal layer depth (ILD). Moreover, the variability in the mixed layer depth (MLD) is complex. Affected by the Wyrtki jet, the MLD presents negative anomalies west of 85°E and strong positive anomalies between 85°E and 93°E. Therefore, the BLT shows positive anomalies except between 86°E and 92°E in the EEIO. Additionally, the IAV in the BLT during December–February (DJF) in the BoB is also investigated. In the eastern and northeastern BoB, the IAV in the BLT is remotely forced by equatorial zonal wind stress anomalies associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the western BoB, the regional surface wind forcing-related ENSO modulates the BLT variations.

The role of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in the rapid phase transition of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has received much attention over the last few decades. However, the distinctive role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and its underlying dynamics in controlling the rapid transition remains debatable, since it is difficult to isolate the sole effect of the IOD using observation. By conducting model experiments, this study demonstrated that the positive IOD cases could contribute to the rapid phase transition from El Niño to La Niña without the assistance of the Indian Ocean Basin–wide Mode. The westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific induced not only the El Niño phase via descending Kelvin waves in the equatorial eastern Pacific but also the SST cooling in the off-equatorial western Pacific via ascending Rossby waves. The positive feedback between the upwelling Rossby waves and cool SST maintained the Philippine Sea anticyclone anomalies. The accompanying easterly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific triggered upwelling oceanic Kelvin waves, leading to the occurrence of La Niña. This study shows the possible role of the IOD in the rapid phase transition of ENSO.

Interannual variabilities of sea level and upper-ocean gyre circulation of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (WTPO) have been predominantly attributed to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results of the present study put forward important modulation effects by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. The observed sea level in the WTPO shows significant instantaneous and lagged correlations (around −0.60 and 0.40, respectively) with the IOD mode index (DMI). A composite of 14 “independent” IOD events for 1958–2017 shows negative sea level anomalies (SLAs) of 4–7 cm in the WTPO during positive IOD events and positive SLAs of 6–8 cm in the following year that are opposite in sign to the El Niño effect. The IOD impacts are reproduced by large-ensemble simulations of a climate model that generate respectively 430 and 519 positive and negative independent IOD events. A positive IOD induces westerly winds over the western and central tropical Pacific and causes negative SLAs through Ekman upwelling, and it facilitates the establishment of a La Niña condition in the following year that involves enhanced Pacific trade winds and causes positive SLAs in the WTPO. Ocean model experiments confirm that the IOD affects the WTPO sea level mainly through modulating the tropical Pacific winds. Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) induced by IOD winds has a relatively weak effect on the WTPO. The IOD’s impacts on the major upper-ocean currents are also considerable, causing anomalies of 1–4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the South Equatorial Current (SEC) and North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) volume transports.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an important natural mode of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variations in the TIO are an essential focus of the study of the IOD. Monthly variations of air-sea heat flux, rate of change of heat content and oceanic thermal advection in positive/negative IOD events (pIODs/nIODs) occurring after El Nino/La Nina were investigated, using long-series authoritative data, including sea surface wind, sea surface flux, ocean current, etc. It was found that the zonal wind anomaly induced by the initial SSTA gradient is the main trigger of IODs occurring after ENSOs. In pIODs, SSTA evolution in the TIO is primarily determined by the local surface heat flux anomaly, while in nIODs, it is controlled by anomalous oceanic thermal advection. The anomalous southwestern anticyclonic circulation in pIODs enhances regional differences in evaporative capacity and latent heat, and in nIODs, it augments the east-west difference in the advective thermal budget. Further, the meridional anomaly mechanism is also non-negligible during the development of nIODs. As the SWA moves eastward, the meridional SWA prevails near 60°E and the corresponding meridional anomalous current appears. The corresponding maximum meridional thermal advection anomaly reaches 200 W m −2 in September.

The interannual ocean-atmosphere anomaly of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) events that prevail in the tropical Indo-Pacific region impacts significantly on regional marine ecosystem, hydrology and climate variabilities. This study aims to investigate spatial pattern and temporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), related to ENSO and IODM in the region. The monthly data time-series (1980-2017) were obtained from global data center, and were analyzed by applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) methods. The results show that the first three eigen values of SST (Chl-a) explained for 81.7% (76%) of total variance. Spatial pattern of SST EOF mode-1 (56%) formed an asimetric dipole-like shape between eastern and western tropical Pacific with a distinct pattern in upwelling region off Peru waters. This pattern may be associated with 'normal' or La Nina events. Furthermore, El Nino and IODM condition may be depicted from SST mode-2 (19%), in which negative phase contours were predominant over equatorial Pacific and disappearing 'upwelling region' off Peru waters.

Ocean interactions are known to play a major role in the modulation of intraseasonal variability. The role of sea surface temperature (SST) and major oceanic processes like ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) on intraseasonal oscillations like Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (Kelvin wave, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed-Rossby gravity and tropical depressions (together MT)) is explored using 32 years of satellite observations and reanalysis data. It is shown that the relationship between wave activity and SST is highly seasonal and region dependent. The study also shows that the global wave activity is more related to major oceanic phenomena like ENSO and IOD, while regionally, local intensification of the waves is observed to be directly associated with corresponding regional SST. But this relation is mostly limited to the western hemisphere. Globally, while Kelvin and Rossby waves intensify during El Nino, MT waves are shown to intensify during La Nina. MJO and ER are suppressed and MT is intensified during positive IOD. It is shown that the zonal and meridional distribution of moist static energy (MSE) during different phases of ENSO and IOD is the major factor in modulating the observed changes in the intensity of waves along with the distribution of vertical shear. Seasonal variations in these relationships are also explored.

It has been shown that the abnormal rainfall in the catchment of the Amur river in 2013 had a monsoon nature. The origin and evolution of the Asian monsoon (AM) from the region of its formation in the western Indian Ocean to the penetration to Northern Asia have been analyzed. It has been shown that the indices of the Indian Ocean dipole, El Nino, and the North Pacific indices were in phases that contributed not only to maximization of its intensity, but also to the fastest possible movement of the AM from the region of origin through the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, and China to the Russian Far East. Due to the current composition of the climate indices in the Indian and Pacific oceans, the overwetted monsoon air mass brought the minimum possible loss of precipitation on its way to the final region. Increased monsoon precipitation in the vast catchment of the Amur river was facilitated by the fact that the Arctic Oscillation was in the negative phase, which led to the transfer of cold arctic air into the region. The latter circumstance influenced an increase in precipitation through the mechanism of accelerated condensation in humid air. Negative values of the North Pacific indices contributed to the development of blocking situations in the zonal current of temperate latitudes, which localized the zone of precipitation.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual climate mode of the tropical Indian Ocean. Although it is known that negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern pole during the positive IOD are stronger than positive SST anomalies during the negative IOD, no consensus has been reached on the relative importance of various mechanisms that contribute to this asymmetry. Based on a closed mixed layer heat budget analysis using a regional ocean model, here we show for the first time that the vertical mixing plays an important role in causing such asymmetry in SST anomalies in addition to the contributions from the nonlinear advection and the thermocline feedback proposed by previous studies. A decomposition of the vertical mixing term indicates that nonlinearity in the anomalous vertical temperature gradient associated with subsurface temperature anomalies and anomalous vertical mixing coefficients is the main driver of such asymmetry. Such variations in subsurface temperature are induced by the anomalous southeasterly trade winds along the Indonesian coast that modulate the thermocline depth through coastal upwelling/downwelling. Thus, the thermocline feedback contributes to the SST asymmetry not through the vertical advection as previously suggested, but via the vertical mixing.

Australia plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon cycle on inter-annual timescales. While the Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations of net biome production (NBP) and the carbon stored in vegetation between 1901 to 2018 from 13 DGVMs (TRENDY v8 ensemble). We focused our analysis on Australia's short-term (inter-annual) and long-term (decadal to centennial) terrestrial carbon dynamics. The TRENDY models simulated differing magnitudes of NBP on inter-annual timescales, and these differences resulted in significant differences in long-term vegetation carbon accumulation (−4.7 to 9.5 Pg C). We compared the TRENDY ensemble to several satellite-derived datasets and showed that the spread in the models' simulated carbon storage resulted from varying changes in carbon residence time rather than differences in net carbon uptake. Differences in simulated long-term accumulated NBP between models were mostly due to model responses to land-use change. The DGVMs also simulated different sensitivities to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, although notably, the models with nutrient cycles did not simulate the smallest NBP response to CO2. Our results suggest that a change in the climate forcing did not have a large impact on the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, the inter-annual variability in precipitation drives the year-to-year variability in NBP. We analysed the impact of key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on NBP. While the DGVMs agreed on sign of the response of NBP to El Niño and La Niña and to positive and negative IOD events, the magnitude of inter-annual variability in NBP differed strongly between models. In addition, we find that differences in the timing of simulated phenology and fire dynamics are associated with differences in simulated or prescribed vegetation cover and process representation. We further find model disagreement in simulated vegetation carbon, phenology, and apparent carbon residence time, indicating that the models have different types and coverage of vegetation across Australia (whether prescribed or emergent). Our study highlights the need to evaluate parameter assumptions and the key processes that drive vegetation dynamics, such as phenology, mortality, and fire, in an Australian context to reduce uncertainty across models.

Atlantic Niño is the Atlantic equivalent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and it has prominent impacts on regional and global climate. Existing studies suggest that the Atlantic Niño may arise from local atmosphere-ocean interaction and is sometimes triggered by the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), with overall weak ENSO contribution. By analyzing observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments, here we show that the Atlantic Niño can be induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We find that the enhanced rainfall in the western tropical Indian Ocean during positive IOD weakens the easterly trade winds over the tropical Atlantic, causing warm anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic basin and therefore triggering the Atlantic Niño. Our finding suggests that the cross-basin impact from the tropical Indian Ocean plays a more important role in affecting interannual climate variability than previously thought., The Atlantic Niño is an important mode of tropical Atlantic variability that influences the climate conditions in surrounding areas. Here, the authors use observational data and model simulations to show that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole can trigger Atlantic Niño events.

The northern Indian Ocean, comprising of two marginal seas, the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), is known for the occurrence of tropical cyclones. The simultaneous occurrence of the cyclones Luban in the AS and Titli in the BoB is a rare phenomenon, and, in the present study, we examined their contrasting upper ocean responses and what led to their formation in October 2018. Being a category-2 cyclone, the maximum cooling of sea surface temperature associated with Titli was 1°C higher than that of Luban, a category-1 cyclone. The higher tropical cyclone heat potential in the BoB compared with the AS was one of the reasons why Titli was more intense than Luban. The enhancement of chlorophylla(Chl-a) and net primary productivity (NPP) by Luban was 2- and 3.7-fold, respectively, while that by Titli was 3- and 5-fold, respectively. Despite this, the magnitudes of both Chl-aand NPP were higher in the AS compared with the BoB. Consistent with physical and biological responses, the CO2outgassing flux associated with Titli was 12-fold higher in comparison to the pre-cyclone value, while that associated with Luban was 10-fold higher. Unlike the Chl-aand NPP, the magnitude of CO2flux in the BoB was higher than that in the AS. Although the cyclones Luban and Titli originated simultaneously, their generating mechanisms were quite different. What was common for the genesis of both cyclones was the pre-conditioning of the upper ocean in 2018 by the co-occurrence of El Niño and the positive phase of Indian Ocean dipole along with the cold phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation, all of which worked in tandem and warmed the AS and parts of the BoB. What triggered the genesis of Luban in the AS was the arrival of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the mixed Rossby-gravity wave during the first week of October. The genesis of Titli in the BoB was triggered by the eastward propagation of the MJO and the associated enhanced convection from the AS into the region of origin of Titli along with the arrival of the downwelling oceanic Rossby wave.