Search

SUMMARYOne of the main constraints on the use of satellite radar data for monitoring natural hazards is the existence of atmospheric signals. In particular, volcanic deformation can be difficult to identify because atmospheric phase delays can mask or even mimic ground deformation signals. Eliminating atmospheric signals is particularly crucial for high-relief volcanoes such as Ağrı, Tendürek, Acigöl, Göllüdağ and Hasandağ in the Eastern and Central Anatolia. To overcome the atmospheric effects, we use high-resolution ECMWF weather models coupled with an empirical phase-elevation approach for correcting Sentinel-1 interferograms. We apply these methods to two areas of Turkey, the first of which covers three volcanoes in Central Anatolia (Acigöl, Göllüdağ, Hasandağ) between January 2016 and December 2018 and the second covers two volcanoes in Eastern Anatolia (Ağrı, Tendürek) between September 2016 and December 2018. The reduction in standard deviation (quality factor) is calculated for both ascending and descending tracks and the atmospheric corrections are found to perform better on descending interferograms in both cases. Then, we use a least-squares approach to produce a time-series. For Central Anatolia, we used 416 ascending and 415 descending interferograms to create 144 and 145 cumulative displacement maps, respectively, and for Eastern Anatolia, we used 390 ascending and 380 descending interferograms to produce 137 and 130 cumulative displacement maps, respectively. We find that the temporal standard deviation before atmospheric corrections ranges between 0.9 and 3.7 cm for the five volcanoes in the region and is consistently higher on ascending track data, which is acquired at the end of the day when solar heating is greatest. Atmospheric correction reduces the standard deviation to 0.5–2.5 cm. Residual signals might be due to the ice-cap at Ağrı and agriculture near Acigöl. We conclude that these volcanoes did not experience significant magmatic deformation during this time period, despite the apparent signals visible in individual uncorrected interferograms. We demonstrate that atmospheric corrections are vital when using InSAR for monitoring the deformation of high-relief volcanoes in arid continental climates such as Turkey.

Funding: W. Hutchison is funded by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/S033505/1). E.R.D. Ogilvie was supported by a St Andrews Research Internship Scheme (StARIS) grant from the University of St Andrews. East Africa hosts significant reserves of untapped geothermal energy. Exploration has focused on geologically young (

Seismic hazard assessment in slow straining regions is challenging because earthquake catalogues only record events from approximately the last 100 years, whereas earthquake recurrence times on individual faults can exceed 1000 years. Systematic mapping of active faults allows fault sources to be used within probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, which overcomes the problems of short-term earthquake records. We use Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to analyse surface deformation in the Luangwa Rift in Zambia and develop the Luangwa Rift Active Fault Database (LRAFD). The LRAFD is an open-source geospatial database containing active fault traces and their attributes and is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6513691. We identified 18 faults that display evidence for Quaternary activity, and empirical relationships suggest that these faults could cause earthquakes up to Mw 8.1, which would exceed the magnitude of historically recorded events in southern Africa. On the four most prominent faults, the median height of Quaternary fault scarps varies between 12.9 ± 0.4 and 19.2 ± 0.9 m, which suggests they were formed by multiple earthquakes. Deformation is focused on the edges of the Luangwa Rift: the most prominent Quaternary fault scarps occur along the 207 km long Chipola and 142 km long Molaza faults, which are the rift border faults and the longest faults in the region. We associate the scarp on the Molaza Fault with possible surface ruptures from two 20th century earthquakes. Thus, the LRAFD reveals new insights into active faulting in southern Africa and presents a framework for evaluating future seismic hazard.

During earthquakes on low (

Funder: Leverhulme Trust; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275, Funder: Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics, Funder: University of Cambridge Jesus College, University of Cambridge (Jesus College); Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000644, Two of the most widely observed co‐eruptive volcanic phenomena—Ground deformation and volcanic outgassing—Are fundamentally linked via the mechanism of magma degassing and the development of compressibility, which controls how the volume of magma changes in response to a change in pressure. Here we use thermodynamic models—Constrained by petrological data—To reconstruct volatile exsolution and the consequent changes in magma properties. We use the fraction of SO2 exsolved during decompression to predict co‐eruptive SO2 flux and magma compressibility to predict co‐eruptive surface deformation (both normalized by erupted volume). We conduct sensitivity tests using properties of typical basalts to assess how varying magma volatile content, crustal properties, and chamber geometry affect co‐eruptive deformation and degassing. We find that magmatic H2O content has the most impact on both SO2 flux and volume change. Our findings have general implications for typical basaltic systems in arc and ocean island settings. The higher water content of arc magmas makes them more compressible than ocean island magmas and leads to muted or non‐existent deformation being observed during arc eruptions. Our models are consistent with observation: Deformation has been detected during 48% of basaltic eruptions in ocean island settings (16/33) during the satellite era (2005–2020), but only 11% of basaltic eruptions in arc settings (7/61).

Aseismic afterslip is postseismic fault sliding that may significantly redistribute crustal stresses and drive aftershock sequences. Afterslip is typically modeled through geodetic observations of surface deformation on a case-by-case basis, thus questions of how and why the afterslip moment varies between earthquakes remain largely unaddressed. We compile 148 afterslip studies following 53 Mw6.0–9.1 earthquakes, and formally analyze a subset of 88 well-constrained kinematic models. Afterslip and coseismic moments scale near-linearly, with a median Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.91 after bootstrapping (95% range: 0.89–0.93). We infer that afterslip area and average slip scale with coseismic moment as urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb55593:jgrb55593-math-0001 and urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb55593:jgrb55593-math-0002, respectively. The ratio of afterslip to coseismic moment (Mrel) varies from 300% (interquartile range: 9%–32%). Mrel weakly correlates with Mo (CC: −0.21, attributed to a publication bias), rupture aspect ratio (CC: −0.31), and fault slip rate (CC: 0.26, treated as a proxy for fault maturity), indicating that these factors affect afterslip. Mrel does not correlate with mainshock dip, rake, or depth. Given the power-law decay of afterslip, we expected studies that started earlier and spanned longer timescales to capture more afterslip, but Mrel does not correlate with observation start time or duration. Because Mrel estimates for a single earthquake can vary by an order of magnitude, we propose that modeling uncertainty currently presents a challenge for systematic afterslip analysis. Standardizing modeling practices may improve model comparability, and eventually allow for predictive afterslip models that account for mainshock and fault zone factors to be incorporated into aftershock hazard models.

A major challenge in using satellite interferometry (InSAR) for volcanic monitoring in the tropics is distinguishing volcano deformation from atmospheric noise. We reanalysed InSAR time series from 2007-2009 from Agung volcano, Indonesia, which had previously been used as evidence for unrest. Using uncorrected data, we find an apparent velocity of 5.0 ± 2.7 cm/yr consistent with previous reports, but we show that this signal is consistent with predictions of atmospheric contributions derived from weather models (ECMWF-HRES). Following the correction, we find a velocity of 1.4 ± 4.2 cm/yr and conclude that there was no significant deformation related to the inflation of a shallow magma source from 2007-2009. We discuss the implications for the inferred magma storage system at Agung and consider which other reported signals might have been wrongly attributed to deformation and should be reanalyzed.

The final stage of continental breakup is often accompanied by abundant magmatism. Erta 'Ale volcano lies on the Nubia‐Arabia extensional boundary in Afar, Ethiopia, an incipient mid‐ocean ridge. A fissure on the south flank of Erta 'Ale began erupting on 21 January 2017 and has remained active until at least July 2019. We use Sentinel‐1 synthetic aperture radar acquisitions to create a time series of ground displacement measurements at Erta 'Ale from October 2014 to June 2019, covering the eruption and its buildup. In the preeruption period, we observe gradual extension centered on the lava lake, consistent with the opening of an axis‐aligned dike. Using synthetic aperture radar intensity shadows, we show that the long‐lived Erta 'Ale lava lake was stable in this period, indicative of a steady pressure state in the shallow plumbing system. During the initial eruption, we observe surface displacements consistent with a shallow dike intrusion below the eruption site and conduit contraction below the lava lake. The pressure change associated with the cointrusive drop in the lava lake level is sufficient to reproduce the deformation pattern suggesting that the lava lake is well connected to the shallow plumbing system. Subsidence and contraction during the long‐lived eruption indicates the presence of an off‐rift vertically extensive source. We suggest that this may represent a system of stacked sources throughout the upper crust, with melt being more distributed. We also propose that high magma flux on the slow‐spreading Erta 'Ale segment may be facilitating the presence of shallow axial magma bodies.

Southern Africa is typically considered to belong to a single tectonic plate, Nubia, despite active faulting along the southwestern branch of the East African Rift System. We analyze regional Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, and find that the “San” microplate, situated south of the southwestern branch of the East African Rift, is statistically distinct from Nubia, with 0.4–0.7 mm/yr of extension across the boundary. Adding nine new campaign GNSS sites, we show that the extension rate across the southern Malawi Rift is 2.2 ± 0.3 mm/yr, with 75% of the relative velocity occurring over 890 km, despite the surface expression of faulting being

Satellite radar backscatter has the potential to provide useful information about the progression of volcanic eruptions when optical, ground-based, or radar phase-based measurements are limited. However, backscatter changes are complex and challenging to interpret: explosive deposits produce different signals depending on pre-existing ground cover, radar parameters and eruption characteristics. We use high temporal- and spatial-resolution backscatter imagery to examine the emplacement and alteration of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), lahar and ash deposits from the June 2018 eruption of Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala, using observatory reports and rainfall gauge data to ground truth our observations. We use a temporally dense time series of backscatter data to reduce noise and extract deposit areas. We observe backscatter changes in six drainages, the largest deposit was 11.9-km-long that altered an area of 6.3 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb55183:jgrb55183-math-0001 and had a thickness of 10.5 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb55183:jgrb55183-math-00022 m in the lower sections as estimated from radar shadows. The 3 June eruption also produced backscatter signal over an area of 40 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb55183:jgrb55183-math-0003, consistent with reported ashfall. We use transient patterns in backscatter time series to identify nine periods of high lahar activity in a single drainage system between June and October 2018. We find that the characterisation of subtle backscatter signals associated with explosive eruptions are best observed with (1) radiometric terrain calibration, (2) speckle correction, and (3) consideration of pre-existing scattering properties. Our observations demonstrate that SAR backscatter can capture the emplacement and subsequent alteration of a range of explosive deposits, allowing the progression of an explosive eruption to be monitored.

At the global scale, large tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are believed to be random and independent events. Here, we compare global time-series of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7) and explosive volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥ 2) spanning 1960–2019. Both time-series exhibit decadal timescale trends, over which annual earthquake and eruption rates vary by a factor of ≈2. Moreover, global seismic moment release is positively correlated with global eruption rate, with Monte Carlo permutation tests showing that this correlation is significant with a P-value of 1000 km) by earthquake-induced dynamic stress changes, modulation of global earthquake and eruption rates by variations in Earth's rotational velocity, or natural synchronization of events over repeating cycles, are therefore required to explain the correlation.

Time series of displacement are now routinely available from satellite InSAR and are used for flagging anomalous ground motion, but not yet forecasting. We test conventional time series forecasting methods such as SARIMA and supervised machine learning approaches such as LSTM compared to simple function extrapolation. We focus initially on forecasting seasonal signals and begin by characterising the time‐series using sinusoid fitting, seasonal decomposition and autocorrelation functions. We find that the three measures are broadly comparable but identify different types of seasonal characteristic. We use this to select a set of 310 points with highly seasonal characteristics and test the three chosen forecasting methods over prediction windows of 1‐9 months. The lowest overall median RMSE values are obtained for SARIMA when considering short term predictions ( 6 months). Machine learning methods (LSTM) perform less well. We then test the prediction methods on 2000 randomly selected points with a range of seasonalities and find that simple extrapolation of a constant function performed better overall than any of the more sophisticated time series prediction methods. Comparisons between seasonality and RMSE show a small improvement in performance with increasing seasonality. This proof‐of‐concept study demonstrates the potential of time‐series prediction for InSAR data but also highlights the limitations of applying these techniques to non‐periodic signals or individual measurement points. We anticipate future developments, especially to shorter timescales, will have a broad range of potential applications, from infrastructure stability to volcanic eruptions.

Volcanoes have dormancy periods that may last decades to centuries meaning that eruptions at volcanoes with no historical records of eruptions are common. Baseline monitoring to detect the early stages of reawakening is therefore important even in regions with little recent volcanic activity. Satellite techniques, such as InSAR, are ideally suited for routinely surveying large and inaccessible regions, but the large datasets typically require expert interpretation. Here we focus on Turkey where there are 10 Holocene volcanic systems, but no eruptions since 1855 and consequently little ground-based monitoring. We analyse data from the first five years of the European Space Agency Sentinel-1 mission which collects data over Turkey every 6 days on both ascending and descending passes. The high relief edifices of Turkey’s volcanoes cause two challenges: 1) snow cover during the winter months causes a loss of coherence and 2) topographically-correlated atmospheric artefacts could be misinterpreted as deformation. We propose mitigation strategies for both. The raw time series at Hasan Dag volcano shows uplift of ~ 10 cm between September 2017 and July 2018, but atmospheric corrections based on global weather models demonstrate that this is an artefact and reduce the scatter in the data to

Seismic hazard is commonly characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, these records are short relative to earthquake repeat times, and extrapolating to estimate seismic hazard can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, and frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology can address this challenge, this approach requires certain geomorphic setting, is resource intensive, and can carry large inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates and recurrence intervals can be estimated by combining fault geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, and geological constraints of regional strain distribution. We apply this approach to southern Malawi, near the southern end of the East African Rift, and where, although no on-fault slip rate measurements exist, there are constraints on strain partitioning between border and intra-basin faults. This has led to the development of the South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), a geographical database of 23 active fault traces, and the South Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (SMSSD), in which we apply our systems-based approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals for the faults compiled in the SMAFD. We estimate earthquake magnitudes of MW 5.4–7.2 for individual fault sections in the SMSSD and MW 5.6–7.8 for whole-fault ruptures. However, low fault slip rates (intermediate estimates ∼ 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long recurrence intervals between events: 102–105 years for border faults and 103–106 years for intra-basin faults. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the large range of these estimates can best be reduced with improved geodetic constraints in southern Malawi. The SMAFD and SMSSD provide a framework for using geological and geodetic information to characterise seismic hazard in regions with few on-fault slip rate measurements, and they could be adapted for use elsewhere in the East African Rift and globally.

Large earthquakes alter the crustal stress field across great distances (hundreds to thousands of kilometers) over geologically short timescales (seconds to years). These stress changes can affect magmatic systems, triggering (or suppressing) volcanic unrest and eruption, along with other deeper processes. We use simple kinematic source models in an isotropic elastic half‐space to assess earthquake‐induced static stress changes (>1 kPa) over the entire thickness of the lithosphere and consider the implications for magma ascent and storage. Modeling subduction zone earthquakes, we calculate static normal stress changes with depth on three mutually perpendicular end‐member magma pathways: vertical arc‐parallel, vertical arc‐perpendicular, and horizontal. From this, we define seven stress change regimes within the adjacent volcanic arc. Three of these regimes may strongly encourage magma ascent in dykes by inducing unclamping (decreased compressive normal stress) of vertical pathways which increases in magnitude toward the surface and clamping of horizontal pathways. Two of the regimes may encourage stalling and storage of magma in sills near the base of the crust by inducing unclamping of horizontal pathways at depth. The spatial distribution of the regimes is largely dependent on earthquake magnitude, but also varies with slip distribution and interface dip. We show how the responses of magmatic systems to earthquakes also depends on the stress change magnitude and the state of the magmatic system, with a greater impact expected for larger stress changes acting on weaker, more thermally mature systems.

Magmatic intrusions play a vital role not only in accommodating extensional stresses in continental rifts but also in feeding volcanic systems. The location, orientation, and timescale of dike intrusions are dictated by the interaction of regional and local stresses, the effect of pre‐existing weaknesses, and the composition of magma. Observing active intrusions can provide important information regarding the interaction between magmatic processes and the tectonic stress field during continental rifting. We focus on a seismic swarm that occurred in 2015 to the northeast of Fentale volcano, in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), and use radar interferometry to study surface deformation associated with the seismic swarm. Interferograms show a pattern of dike‐induced deformation, with a model estimate of volume change of 33×106±0.6×106m3 at a depth range of 5.4 to 8 km. We use a small baseline subset algorithm to calculate line of sight time series and find that the displacements decay exponentially with a decay constant of ∼83 days. Coupled source‐sink models suggest that such slow dike intrusions require a high viscosity rhyolitic magma. The difference in behavior between Fentale and other caldera systems in the MER, which show multi‐year cycles of inflation and deflation, suggests fundamental differences in magma composition and architecture of the plumbing system. This is the first direct observation of a dike intrusion in the MER and provides new constraints on the temporal‐spatial patterns of stress and strain that occur during continental rifting. Whether this activity is transient or a long‐term feature associated with rift evolution is an open question.

Southern Mozambique is the southernmost expression of the continental East African Rift. Here, extension rates are low and rifting is achieved through normal faulting. Incipient rift environments provide an ideal location to investigate the role of reactivated pre-existing structures, aftershock sequences, and fault interactions in rift development. In 2016 a Mw 5.6 earthquake occurred in the Zinave region of southern Mozambique, ∼10 km south-east of the Mw 7.0 2006 Machaze earthquake. We reanalyse ENVISAT InSAR observations of the Machaze earthquake, together with new Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations of the Zinave earthquake, and solve for uniform and distributed slip models for both events. We find the Machaze earthquake occurred on a steeply dipping (∼75◦) fault, in agreement with other studies, but that the Zinave earthquake occurred on a ∼60◦ dipping fault. The occurrence of the Zinave earthquake at the same depth as afterslip following the Machaze earthquake suggests laterally heterogeneous crustal frictional properties. The Machaze earthquake caused a Coulomb stress increase of ∼0.2 MPa on the Zinave fault. The full >10 year record of seismicity following the Machaze event can be fit by the Omori law, showing that the Zinave earthquake is part of a decade-long aftershock sequence, consistent with long-duration aftershock sequences in other slowly straining regions. Aftershocks represent a major hazard that needs to be considered if a large earthquake were to occur in the southern East African Rift system today.

Large silicic magma reservoirs preferentially form in the upper crust of extensional continental environments. However, our quantitative understanding of the link between mantle magmatism, silicic reservoirs, and surface deformation during rifting is very limited. Here, we focus on Corbetti, a peralkaline caldera in the densely populated Main Ethiopian Rift, which lies above a focused zone of upper mantle partial melt and has been steadily uplifting at a maximum rate of 6.6±1.2 cm yr−1 for more than 10 yr. Numerical modeling shows that a maximum concomitant residual gravity increase of 9±3 μGal yr−1 by the intrusion of mafic magma at ∼7 km depth into a compressible and inelastic crystal mush best explains the observed deformation and gravity changes. The derived magma mass flux of ∼1011 kg yr−1 is anomalously high and at least 1 order of magnitude greater than the mean long‐term mass eruption rate. This study demonstrates that periodic and high‐rate magmatic rejuvenation of upper‐crustal mush is a significant and rapid contributor to mature continental rifting.

In continental rifts structural heterogeneities, such as pre-existing faults and foliations, are thought to influence shallow crustal processes, particularly the formation of rift faults, magma reservoirs and surface volcanism. We focus on the Corbetti caldera, in the southern central Main Ethiopian Rift. We measure the surface deformation between 22nd June 2007 and 25th March 2009 using ALOS and ENVISAT SAR interferograms and observe a semi-circular pattern of deformation bounded by a sharp linear feature cross-cutting the caldera, coincident with the caldera long axis. The signal reverses in sign but is not seasonal: from June to December 2007 the region south of this structure moves upwards 3 cm relative to the north, while from December 2007 until November 2008 it subsides by 2 cm. Comparison of data taken from two different satellite look directions show that the displacement is primarily vertical. We discuss potential mechanisms and conclude that this deformation is associated with pressure changes within a shallow (

The mechanism and evolution of fault linkage is important in the growth and development of large faults. Here we investigate the role of coseismic stress changes in shaping the hard-links between parallel normal fault segments (or faults), by comparing numerical models of the Coulomb stress change from simulated earthquakes on two en echelon fault segments to natural observations of hard-linked fault geometry. We consider three simplified linking fault geometries: 1) fault bend; 2) breached relay ramp; and 3) strike-slip transform fault. We consider scenarios where either one or both segments rupture and vary the distance between segment tips. Fault bends and breached relay ramps are favoured where segments underlap, or when the strike-perpendicular distance between overlapping segments is less than 20% of their total length, matching all documented examples. Transform fault linkage geometries are preferred when overlapping segments are laterally offset at larger distances. Few transform faults exist in continental extensional settings, and our model suggests that propagating faults or fault segments may first link through fault bends or breached ramps before reaching sufficient overlap for a transform fault to develop. Our results suggest that Coulomb stresses arising from multi-segment ruptures or repeated earthquakes are consistent with natural observations of the geometry of hard-links between parallel normal fault segments

Volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake swarms are usual precursors to volcanic eruptions and their dynamic phenomenologies are an invaluable eruption forecasting tool. A power-law relationship between cumulative seismic moment release and intrusion volume has been proposed for both well injection sites and VT swarms. Here we compile data from 17 geodetically-studied VT swarms and use a Bayesian methodology to assess the relationship between cumulative moment release and subsurface volume change. We find that the empirical relationship derived from injection sites systematically underpredicts volume changes observed during VT swarms near volcanoes. A new relationship derived specifically from VT swarms provides a better fit, but large uncertainties mean that estimates of intruded volume range by three orders of magnitude (95% confidence) for a given cumulative seismic moment release. We further subdivide the dataset, and although the sample size is too small to meet conventional statistic hypothesis significance tests, qualitative inspection suggests that the seismic moment release is proportionally larger for unrest swarms which culminate in eruption. We conclude that the currently available dataset is too sparse and the uncertainties too large for use for reliably forecasting eruption magnitude; however, as the dataset of cases grows, further analysis along these same lines may provide improved diagnostic insights into eruption-related processes that may be driving seismic moment release in VT swarms.

Lava extrusion at erupting volcanoes causes rapid changes in topography and morphology on the order of tens or even hundreds of meters. Satellite radar provides a method for measuring changes in topographic height over a given time period to an accuracy of meters, either by measuring the width of radar shadow cast by steep sided features, or by measuring the difference in radar phase between two sensors separated in space. We measure height changes, and hence estimate extruded lava volume flux, at El Reventador, Ecuador, between 2011 and 2016, using data from the RADARSAT‐2 and TanDEM‐X satellite missions. We find that 39 new lava flows were extruded between 9 February 2012 and 24 August 2016, with a cumulative volume of 44.8M m3 dense rock equivalent and a gradually decreasing eruption rate. The average dense rock rate of lava extrusion during this time is 0.31 ± 0.02 m3 s−1, which is similar to the long‐term average from 1972 to 2016. Apart from a volumetrically small dyke opening event between 9 March and 10 June 2012, lava extrusion at El Reventador is not accompanied by any significant magmatic ground deformation. We use a simple physics‐based model to estimate that the volume of the magma reservoir under El Reventador is greater than 3 km3. Our lava extrusion data can be equally well fit by models representing a closed reservoir depressurising during the eruption with no magma recharge, or an open reservoir with a time‐constant magma recharge rate of up to 0.35 ± 0.01 m3 s−1.

The silicic volcanic centres of the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) play a central role in facilitating continental rifting. Many of these volcanoes host geothermal resources and are located in heavily populated regions. InSAR studies have shown several are deforming, but regional seismic networks have detected little seismicity. A local network of 12 seismometers was deployed at Aluto Volcano from 2012 to 2014, and detected 2142 earthquakes within a 24-month period. We locate the events using a 1D velocity model that exploits a regional model and information from geothermal boreholes and calculate local magnitudes, b-values and focal mechanisms. Event depths generally range from the near surface to 15 km with most of the seismicity clustering in the upper 2 km. A significant amount of seismicity follows the Artu Jawa Fault Zone, which trends in alignment with the Wonji Fault Belt, NNE–SSW and is consistent with previous studies of strain localisation in the MER. Focal mechanisms are mostly normal in style, with the mean T-axes congruent to the orientation of extension in the rift at this latitude. Some show relatively small left-lateral strike-slip components and are likely associated with the reactivation of NE-ENE structures at the southern tip of the Aluto-Gedemsa segment. Events range from − 0.40 to 2.98 in magnitude and we calculate an overall b-value of 1.40 ± 0.14. This relatively elevated value suggests fluid-induced seismicity that is particularly evident in the shallow hydrothermal reservoir and above it. Subdividing our observations according to depth identifies distinct regions beneath the volcanic edifice: a shallow zone (− 2–0 km) of high seismicity and high b-values that corresponds to the hydrothermal system and is influenced by a high fluid saturation and circulation; a relatively aseismic zone (0–2 km) with low b-values that is impermeable to ascending volatiles; a region of increased fluid-induced seismicity (2–9 km) that is driven by magmatic intrusion from below and a deeper zone (below 9 km) that is interpreted as a partially crystalline, magmatic mush. These observations indicate that both the magmatic and hydrothermal systems of Aluto volcano are seismically active and highlight the need for dedicated seismic monitoring at volcanoes in the MER.

The distribution of deformation during the early stages of continental rifting is an important constraint on our understanding of continental breakup. Incipient rifting in East Africa has been considered to be dominated by slip along rift border faults, with a subsequent transition to focussed extension on axial segments in thinned crust and/or with active magmatism. Here, we study high‐resolution satellite data of the Zomba Graben in southern Malawi, an amagmatic rift whose topography is dominated by the west‐dipping Zomba fault. We document evidence for five sub‐parallel fault scarps between 13 and 51 km long spaced ~10‐15 km apart. The scarps consist of up to five segments between 4‐18 km long, separated by minima in scarp height and river knickpoints. The maximum height of each fault scarp ranges from 9.5 ± 4.2 m to 35.3 ± 14.6 m, with the highest scarp measured on the intrabasin Chingale Step fault. We estimate that the scarps were formed by multiple earthquakes of up to Mw7.1, and represent a previously unrecognized seismic hazard. Our calculations show that 55 ± 24 % of extensional strain is accommodated across intrabasin faults within the ~50 km wide rift. This demonstrates that a significant proportion of displacement can occur on intrabasin faults during early stage rifting, even in thick continental lithosphere with no evidence for magmatic fluids.

Geomorphological features such as fault scarps and stream knickpoints are indicators of recent fault activity. Determining whether these features formed during a single earthquake or over multiple earthquakes cycles has important implications for the interpretation of the size and frequency of past events. Here, we focus on the Bilila‐Mtakataka fault, Malawi, where the 20 m high fault scarps exceed the height expected from a single earthquake rupture. We use a high resolution digital elevation model (< 1 m) to identify complexity in the fault scarp and knickpoints in river profiles. Of 39 selected scarp profiles, 20 showed evidence of either multi‐scarps or composite scarps and of the seven selected river and stream profiles, five showed evidence for multiple knickpoints. A near uniform distribution of vertical offsets on the sub‐scarps suggests they were formed by separate earthquakes. These independent methods agree that at least two earthquakes have occurred with an average vertical offset per event of 10 and 12 m. This contrasts earlier studies which proposed that this scarp formed during a single event, and demonstrates the importance of high‐resolution topographic data for understanding tectonic geomorphology. We use a one‐dimensional diffusion model of scarp degradation to demonstrate how fault splays form multi‐scarps and estimate the diffusion age κt of the Bilila‐Mtakataka fault scarp to be 48 ± m25 m2, corresponding to 6400 ± 4000 years since formation. We calculate that a continuous rupture would equate to a MW 7.8 ± 0.3 earthquake, greater than the largest seismic event previously recorded in East Africa.

Radar satellites, such as Sentinel-1, are now able to produce time-series of ground deformation at any volcano around the world, but atmospheric effects still limit the real time detection of unrest at tropical volcanoes. Here, we test two approaches to correct atmospheric errors - phase-elevation correlations and global weather models - and assess the ability of InSAR time-series to detect deformation anomalies using either a fixed threshold or a cumulative sum control chart. We use the 2017-2018 crisis at Agung volcano as a case example because strong atmospheric signals were originally misidentified as true deformation, and obscured the subtle deformation pattern associated with magmatic activity. We assess the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) of each method and found the average area under the ROC curve to be about 0.5 for the uncorrected data (corresponding to no discrimination capability), around 0.8 after combined atmospheric corrections (weather model and phase-elevation approaches), and more than 0.95 using a cumulative sum control chart (where 1 corresponds to ideal separation between classes). Our results retrospectively show that uplift could have been detected to a 95% level of confidence for both ascending and descending time series by October 2017, 15 days after the start of the seismic swarm and one month prior to the eruption. Thus our approach successfully flags anomalous behavior without relying on visual inspection or selection of an arbitrary threshold, and hence shows potential as a monitoring tool for volcano observatories globally.

SUMMARYTectonic slivers form in the overriding plate in regions of oblique subduction. The inner boundaries of the sliver are often poorly defined and can consist of well-defined faults, rotating blocks or diffuse fault systems, which pass through or near the volcanic arc. The Guanacaste Volcanic Arc Sliver (GVAS) as defined by Montero et al., is a segment of the Central American Forearc Sliver, whose inner boundary is the ∼87-km-long Haciendas-Chiripa fault system (HCFS), which is located ∼10 km behind the volcanic arc and consists of strike slip faults and pull apart steps. We characterize the current ground motion on this boundary by combining earthquake locations and focal mechanisms of the 2016 Bijagua earthquake sequence, with the surface ground deformation obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images from the ALOS-2 satellite. The coseismic stack of interferograms show ∼6 cm of displacement towards the line of sight of the satellite between the Caño Negro fault and the Upala fault, indicating uplift or SE horizontal surface displacement. The largest recorded earthquake of the sequence was Mw 5.4, and the observed deformation is one of the smallest earthquakes yet detected by InSAR in the Central American region. Forward and inverse models show the surface deformation can be partially explained by slip on a single fault, but it can be better explained by slip along two faults linked at depth. The best-fitting model consists of 0.33 m of right lateral slip on the Caño Negro fault and 0.35 m of reverse slip on the Upala fault, forming a positive flower structure. As no reverse seismicity was recorded, we infer the slip on the Upala fault occurred aseismically. Observations of the Bijagua earthquake sequence suggests the forearc sliver boundary is a complex and diffuse fault system. There are localized zones of transpression and transtension and areas where there is no surface expression suggesting the fault system is not yet mature. Although aseismic slip is common on subduction interfaces and mature strike-slip faults, this is the first study to document aseismic slip on a continental tectonic sliver boundary fault.

Currently, it is only possible to look inside an active volcano using indirect geophysical methods. One such method is to measure surface deformation, which results from subsurface magmatic or hydrothermal processes. Modern satellite data allows deformation to be measured at hundreds of volcanoes without relying on limited ground instrumentation. As a result, the number of known deforming volcanoes has increased from 44 in 1997 to over 220 in 2016. This article reviews the diverse ways by which volcanoes can deform, the typical rates and durations of such deformations, and the processes that drive deformation.

Restless silicic calderas present major geological hazards, and yet many also host significant untapped geothermal resources. In East Africa, this poses a major challenge, although the calderas are largely unmonitored their geothermal resources could provide substantial economic benefits to the region. Understanding what causes unrest at these volcanoes is vital for weighing up the opportunities against the potential risks. Here we bring together new field and remote sensing observations to evaluate causes of ground deformation at Aluto, a restless silicic volcano located in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics of a ground deformation episode that took place between 2008 and 2010. Deformation time series reveal pulses of accelerating uplift that transition to gradual long-term subsidence, and analytical models support inflation source depths of ∼5 km. Gases escaping along the major fault zone of Aluto show high CO2 flux, and a clear magmatic carbon signature (CO2-δ13C of −4.2‰ to −4.5‰). This provides compelling evidence that the magmatic and hydrothermal reservoirs of the complex are physically connected. We suggest that a coupled magmatic-hydrothermal system can explain the uplift-subsidence signals. We hypothesize that magmatic fluid injection and/or intrusion in the cap of the magmatic reservoir drives edifice-wide inflation while subsequent deflation is related to magmatic degassing and depressurization of the hydrothermal system. These new constraints on the plumbing of Aluto yield important insights into the behavior of rift volcanic systems and will be crucial for interpreting future patterns of unrest.

The ground response to the production of energy in geothermal fields can be observed in the form of ground displacement and seismic activity. Changes in the temperature, volume, pressure of the reservoir can culminate in surface deformation and in seismicity at the reservoir edges and/or near the production wells. Identifying the origin of the ground response enables controlled management of the reservoir and can help prevent damage to structures. Satellite remote sensing (InSAR) permits the study of the deformation at these sites with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, Central America has a dynamic atmosphere with considerable water vapour and constant growth of vegetation all year long, which leads to decorrelation between SAR images. Here we study the Dr. Alfredo Mainieri Protti geothermal field, located near Miravalles Volcano in the Northern Costa Rica volcanic arc. We measure the deformation associated with geothermal energy production using data from two satellites (ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1) between January 2015 and January 2017. The ALOS-2 data was used to obtain the extent of the affected area, and two StaMPS multi-temporal methods (Persistent Scatter (PS) InSAR, and Small Baselines(SB)) were applied to the Sentinel-1 data, to obtain the temporal pattern of the ground displacements. Results show a direct response of the ground to the extraction of fluids. The pattern of deformation obtained with ALOS-2 is spatially correlated with the geothermal field, and with the recorded seismicity. Between April 2015 to October 2016, periods of uplift and subsidence were observed with values between ~2.0 to 3.0 cm every 120 days, linked to changes in the amount of fluids extracted from the reservoir. The results also show the ability of the reservoir to recover rapidly following a decrease in extraction rate. This work has shown that even in this tropical region it is possible to monitor anthropogenic ground motion using InSAR. This is beneficial for the Central American region, as satellite images are becoming more frequently acquired and available, and can be used to boost the monitoring of seismic regions, volcanic activity and anthropogenic activities.

The estimation of the volume of volcanic flows during an ongoing eruption is challenging but this information is crucial for improving risk assessment and for forecasting future events. Although previous studies have shown the ability of TanDEM-X satellite data to derive the thickness and the volume of lava flow fields during effusive eruptions, the method has not been explored yet for pyroclastic flows. Using bi-static interferometry, we produce TanDEM-X DEM on Fuego volcano (Guatemala) to measure the significant topographic changes caused by the 3rd June 2018 eruption, which destroyed the town of San Miguel Los Lotes. We estimate the volume of the Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) to be 15.1 ± 4.2 × 106 m3. The deposits are likely to be the source of lahars during future rainy seasons. We identify the main channel of deposition (positive elevation changes) and the source region of pyroclastic material, areas of significant substrate erosion, and vegetation destruction (negative elevation changes). Our results show that the June 3rd 2018 pyroclastic flow was predominantly composed of material which had gravitationally collapsed from a location close to the vent. The eroded material increased the volume of the flow (bulking) and likely caused the run-out distance of the 2018 PDC to be larger than previous eruptions (1999–2017). This study highlights the potential of remote sensing techniques for actively monitoring topography changes in inaccessible locations and to rapidly derive deposit volumes.

Lava flows pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and property located close to volcanoes, and understanding how flows advance is necessary to manage volcanic hazard during eruptions. Compared to low-silica basaltic flows, flows of andesite composition are infrequently erupted and so relatively few studies of their characteristics and behaviour exist. We use El Reventador, Ecuador as a target to investigate andesitic lava flow properties during a 4.5 year period of extrusive eruption between February 2012 and August 2016. We use satellite radar to map the dimensions of 43 lava flows and look at variations in their emplacement behaviour over time. We find that flows descend the north and south flanks of El Reventador, and were mostly emplaced during durations shorter than the satellite repeat interval of 24 days.Flows ranged in length from 0.3 to 1.7 km, and the length of these flows decreased over the observation period. We measure a decrease in flow volume with time that is correlated with a long-term exponential decrease in eruption rate, and propose that this behaviour is caused by temporary magma storage in the conduit acting as a melt capacitor between the magma reservoir and the surface. We use the dimensions of the flow levees and widths to estimate the flow yield strengths, which were of the order of 10-100 kPa. We observe that some flows were diverted by topographic obstacles, and compare measurements of decreased channel width and increased flow thickness at the obstacles with observations from laboratory experiments. Radar observations, such as those presented here, could be used to map and measure properties of evolving lava flow fields at other remote or difficult to monitor volcanoes.

This manuscript is a post-print deposited on the EarthArXiv platform that has been published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems. Crustal extension is commonly thought to be accommodated by faults that strike orthogonal and obliquely to the regional trend of the minimum compressive stress (σ3). Activation of oblique faults can, however, be conceptually problematic as under Andersonian faulting, it requires preexisting crustal weaknesses, high fluid pressures, and/or stress rotations. Furthermore, measurements of incremental fault displacements, which are typically used to identify oblique faulting, do not necessarily reflect regional stresses. Here, we assess oblique faulting by calculating the stress ratio (σ3/σ1, where σ1 is the maximum compressive stress), slip tendency, and effective coefficient of friction (μs’) required to reactivate variably striking normal faults under different trends of σ3. We apply this analysis to NW and NNE striking active faults at the southern end of the Malawi Rift, where NE-SW, ENE-WSW, E-W, and SE-NW σ3 trends have previously been proposed. A uniform σ3 trend is inferred for this region as recent joints sets do not rotate along the rift. With a NE-SW trending σ3, NW-striking faults are well oriented, however, NNE-striking faults require μs’0.55. These σ3 trends are also comparable to a focal mechanism stress inversion, regional joint orientations, and previously reported geodetically-derived extension directions. We therefore conclude that unlike typical models of oblique rifting, the southern Malawi Rift consists of faults that all strike slightly oblique to σ3.

Automated systems for detecting deformation in satellite InSAR imagery could be used to develop a global monitoring system for volcanic and urban environments. Here we explore the limits of a CNN for detecting slow, sustained deformations in wrapped interferograms. Using synthetic data, we estimate a detection threshold of 3.9cm for deformation signals alone, and 6.3cm when atmospheric artefacts are considered. Over-wrapping reduces this to 1.8cm and 5.0cm respectively as more fringes are generated without altering SNR. We test the approach on timeseries of cumulative deformation from Campi Flegrei and Dallol, where over-wrapping improves classication performance by up to 15%. We propose a mean-filtering method for combining results of different wrap parameters to flag deformation. At Campi Flegrei, deformation of 8.5cm/yr was detected after 60days and at Dallol, deformation of 3.5cm/yr was detected after 310 days. This corresponds to cumulative displacements of 3 cm and 4 cm consistent with estimates based on synthetic data.

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground‐based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long‐term multiparameter data sets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 years at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America and compare these data sets to ground‐based observations archived by the Global Volcanism Program. This first comparison of multisatellite time series on a regional scale provides information regarding volcanic behavior during, noneruptive, pre‐eruptive, syneruptive, and posteruptive periods. For example, at Copahue volcano, deviations from background activity in all three types of satellite measurements were manifested months to years in advance of renewed eruptive activity in 2012. By quantifying the amount of degassing, thermal output, and deformation measured at each of these volcanoes, we test the classification of these volcanoes as open or closed volcanic systems. We find that ~28% of the volcanoes do not fall into either classification, and the rest show elements of both, demonstrating a dynamic range of behavior that can change over time. Finally, we recommend how volcano monitoring could be improved through better coordination of available satellite‐based capabilities and new instruments.

Owing to practical limitations less than half of Earth's 1400 subaerial volcanoes have no ground monitoring and few are monitored consistently. Earth-observing satellite missions provide global and frequent measurements of volcanic activity that are closing these gaps in coverage. We compare databases of global, satellite-detections of ground deformation (1992–2016), SO2 emissions (1978–2016), and thermal features (2000–2016) that together include 306 volcanoes. Each database has limitations in terms of spatial and temporal resolution but each technique contributed 45–86 unique detections of activity that were not detected by other techniques. Integration of these three databases shows that satellites detected ~102 volcanic activities per year before the year 2000 and ~103 activities per year after the year 2000. We find that most of the 54 erupting volcanoes without satellite-detections are associated with low volcano explosivity index eruptions and note that many of these eruptions (71%, 97/135) occurred in the earliest decades of remote sensing (pre-2000) when detection thresholds were high. From 1978 to 2016 we conduct a preliminary analysis of the timing between the onset of satellite-detections of deformation (N = 154 episodes, N = 71 volcanoes), thermal features (N = 16,544 episodes, N = 99 volcanoes), and SO2 emissions (N = 1495 episodes, N = 116 volcanoes) to eruption start dates. We analyze these data in two ways: first, including all satellite-detected volcanic activities associated with an eruption; and second, by considering only the first satellite-detected activity related to eruption. In both scenarios, we find that deformation is dominantly pre-eruptive (47% and 57%) whereas available databases of thermal features and SO2 emissions utilizing mainly low-resolution sensors are dominantly co-eruptive (88% and 76% for thermal features, 97% and 96% for SO2 emissions).

Recent improvements in the frequency, type and availability of satellite images mean it is now feasible to routinely study volcanoes in remote and inaccessible regions, including those with no ground-based monitoring. In particular, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data can detect surface deformation, which has a strong statistical link to eruption. However, the dataset produced by the recently-launched Sentinel-1 satellite is too large to be manually analysed on a global basis. In this study, we systematically process >30,000 short-term interferograms at over 900 volcanoes and apply machine learning algorithms to automatically detect volcanic ground deformation. We use a convolutional neutral network (CNN) to classify interferometric fringes in wrapped interferograms with no atmospheric corrections. We employ a transfer learning strategy, and test a range of pretrained networks, finding that AlexNet is best suited to this task. The positive results are checked by an expert and fed back for model updating. Following training with a combination of both positive and negative examples, this method reduced the number of interferograms to ~100 which required further inspection, of which at least 39 are considered 'true positives'. We demonstrate that machine learning can efficiently detect large, rapid deformation signals in wrapped interferograms, but further development is required to detect slow or small deformation patterns which do not generate multiple fringes in short duration interferograms. This study is the first to use machine learning approaches for detecting volcanic deformation in large datasets, and demonstrates the potential of such techniques for developing alert systems based on satellite imagery.

Observations of ground deformation in East Africa have been fundamental for unveiling the tectonics of continental rifting, assessing the seismic and volcanic hazard to development, and identifying geothermal resources. Here we investigate the active natural and anthropogenic processes in the Tendaho Graben, Afar using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) collected by the Envisat satellite in 2004–2010. We used the Poly-Interferometric Rate And time series Estimation (π-RATE) method to calculate displacement in satellite line-of-sight, and a least-square inversion to decompose the line-of-sight displacement into vertical and rift perpendicular components. We observe two zones of deformation: a 20 km wide circular region of subsidence located 10 km northeast of the town of Semera with a maximum displacement rate of ∼5 cm/yr; and elongated zone (50 km) of subsidence in the area of the geothermal prospect, maximum rate of ∼4 cm/yr. The temporal characteristics of subsidence varies between these zones, with an increase in subsidence rate observed in the circular region in August 2008. We used a Bayesian inversion to find the best fitting source models and compared this to locations of seismicity and other geophysical observations. The pattern of deformation is consistent with a combination of magmatic and geothermal processes, but there does not appear to be a direct link to a sequence of dyke intrusions during 2005–2010 at Manda Hararo graben ∼60 km away, but dynamic stress changes or deep crustal flow could account for the observations.

Seasonal variations in the seismicity of volcanic and geothermal reservoirs are usually attributed to the hydrological cycle. Here, we focus on the Aluto-Langano geothermal system, Ethiopia, where the climate is monsoonal and there is abundant shallow seismicity. We deployed temporary networks of seismometers and GPS receivers to understand the drivers of unrest. First, we show that a statistically significant peak in seismicity occurred 2–3 months after the main rainy season, with a second, smaller peak of variable timing. Seasonal seismicity is commonly attributed to variations in either surface loading or reservoir pore pressure. As loading will cause subsidence and overpressure will cause uplift, comparing seismicity rates with continuous GPS, enables us to distinguish between mechanisms. At Aluto, the major peak in seismicity is coincident with the high stand of nearby lakes and maximum subsidence, indicating that it is driven by surface loading. The magnitude of loading is insufficient to trigger widespread crustal seismicity but the geothermal reservoir at Aluto is likely sensitive to small perturbations in the stress field. Thus we demonstrate that monsoonal loading can produce seismicity in geothermal reservoirs, and the likelihood of both triggered and induced seismicity varies seasonally.

Within Latin America, about 319 volcanoes have been active in the Holocene, but 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) developed a 4-year pilot project (2013-2017) to demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to monitor large numbers of volcanoes cost-effectively, particularly in areas with scarce instrumentation and/or difficult access. The pilot aims to improve disaster risk management (DRM) by working directly with the volcano observatories that are governmentally responsible for volcano monitoring as well as with the international space agencies (ESA, CSA, ASI, DLR, JAXA, NASA, CNES). The goal is to make sure that the most useful data are collected at each volcano following the guidelines of the Santorini report that observation frequency is related to volcano activity, and to communicate the results to the local institutions in a timely fashion. Here we highlight how coordinated multi-satellite observations have been used by volcano observatories to monitor volcanoes and respond to crises. Our primary tool is measurements of ground deformation made by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), which have been used in conjunction with other observations to determine the alert level at these volcanoes, served as an independent check on ground sensors, guided the deployment of ground instruments, and aided situational awareness. During this time period, we find 26 volcanoes deforming, including 18 of the 28 volcanoes that erupted – those eruptions without deformation were less than 2 on the VEI scale. Another 7 volcanoes were restless and the volcano observatories requested satellite observations, but no deformation was detected. We describe the lessons learned about the data products and information that are most needed by the volcano observatories in the different countries using information collected by questionnaires. We propose a practical strategy for regional to global satellite volcano monitoring for use by volcano observatories in Latin America and elsewhere to realize the vision of the Santorini report. Por pares

J. Biggs, I.M.Watson, W. Hutchison, T.A. Mather and D.M. Pyle are members of the NERC Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET). This work forms a contribution to the NERC Large Grant RiftVolc (NE/L01372X/1) awarded to J. Biggs. W. Hutchison was funded by NERC studentship NE/J500045/1. I.M. Watson is part of the NASA-ASTER science team and acknowledges NASA and JAXA for the provision of data. Fumaroles are the surface manifestation of hydrothermal circulation and can be influenced by magmatic, hydrothermal, hydrological and tectonic processes. This study investigates the temporal changes in fumarole temperatures and spatial extent on Aluto, a restless volcano in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), in order to better understand the controls on fluid circulation and the interaction between the magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Thermal infrared (TIR) satellite images, acquired by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer (ASTER) over the period of 2004 to 2016, are used to generate time series of the fumarole temperatures and areas. The thermal anomalies identified in the ASTER images coincide with known fumaroles with temperatures > 80 °C and are located on or close to fault structures, which provide a pathway for the rising fluids. Most of the fumaroles, including those along the major zone of hydrothermal upwelling, the Artu Jawe Fault Zone, have pixel-integrated temperature variations of only ~ 2 ± 1.5 °C. The exception are the Bobesa fumaroles located on a hypothesised caldera ring fault which show pixel-integrated temperature changes of up to 9 °C consistent with a delayed response of the hydrothermal system to precipitation. We conclude that fumaroles along major faults are strongly coupled to the magmatic-hydrothermal system and are relatively stable with time, whereas those along shallower structures close to the rift flank are more strongly influenced by seasonal variations in groundwater flow. The use of remote sensing data to monitor the thermal activity of Aluto provides an important contribution towards understanding the behaviour of this actively deforming volcano. This method could be used at other volcanoes around the world for monitoring and geothermal exploration. Postprint

High rates of volcano surface deformation can be indicative of a forthcoming eruption, but can also relate to slope instability and possible flank collapse. Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, has been persistently active since 1999 and has previously experienced catastrophic flank failures. During the ongoing eruptive activity, significant surface deformation has been observed, with the highest rates contained within the amphitheatre-shaped scar from the 3000-year-old failure on the west flank. However, the cause of this asymmetric deformation and how it might relate to slope stability has not been assessed. Here, for the first time, we present a range of models to test physical processes that might produce asymmetric deformation, which are then applied to slope stability. Our models are informed by InSAR measurements of a deformation episode in November 2015, which show a maximum displacement of ∼3.5 cm over a period of ∼3 weeks, during which time the volcano also experienced multiple explosions and heightened seismicity. Asymmetric flank material properties, from the rebuilding of the cone, cannot explain the full magnitude and spatial footprint of the observed west flank deformation. The inflation is inferred to be primarily caused by shallow, short-term, pre-eruptive magma storage that preferentially exploits the 3 ka flank collapse surface. Shallow and rapid pressurization from this inclined deformation source can generate shear stress along the collapse surface, which increases with greater volumes of magma. This may contribute to slope instability during future unrest episodes and promote flank failure, with general application to other volcanoes worldwide displaying asymmetric deformation patterns.

Measurements of ground deformation can be used to identify and interpret geophysical processes occurring at volcanoes. Most studies rely on a single geodetic technique, or fit a geophysical model to the results of multiple geodetic techniques. Here we present a methodology that combines GPS, Total Station measurements and InSAR into a single reference frame to produce an integrated 3-D geodetic velocity surface without any prior geophysical assumptions. The methodology consists of five steps: design of the network, acquisition and processing of the data, spatial integration of the measurements, time series computation and finally the integration of spatial and temporal measurements. The most significant improvements of this method are (1) the reduction of the required field time, (2) the unambiguous detection of outliers, (3) an increased measurement accuracy and (4) the construction of a 3-D geodetic velocity field. We apply this methodology to ongoing motion on Arenal’s western flank. Integration of multiple measurement techniques at Arenal volcano revealed a deformation field that is more complex than that described by individual geodetic techniques, yet remains consistent with previous studies. This approach can be applied to volcano monitoring worldwide and has the potential to be extended to incorporate other geodetic techniques and to study transient deformation. Las mediciones de la deformación del suelo pueden utilizarse para identificar e interpretar los procesos geofísicos que tienen lugar en los volcanes. La mayoría de los estudios se basan en una sola técnica geodésica o ajustan un modelo geofísico a los resultados de múltiples técnicas geodésicas. Aquí presentamos una metodología que combina las mediciones del GPS, la estación total y el InSAR en un único marco de referencia para producir una superficie de velocidad geodésica tridimensional integrada sin ninguna suposición geofísica previa. La metodología consta de cinco pasos: diseño de la red, adquisición y procesamiento de los datos, integración espacial de las mediciones, cálculo de las series temporales y, por último, integración de las mediciones espaciales y temporales. Las mejoras más significativas de este método son (1) la reducción del tiempo de campo necesario, (2) la detección inequívoca de valores atípicos, (3) una mayor precisión de las mediciones y (4) la construcción de un campo de velocidad geodésico en 3D. Aplicamos esta metodología al movimiento en curso en el flanco occidental del Arenal. La integración de múltiples técnicas de medición en el volcán Arenal reveló un campo de deformación que es más complejo que el descrito por las técnicas geodésicas individuales, aunque sigue siendo coherente con los estudios anteriores. Este enfoque puede aplicarse a la vigilancia de volcanes en todo el mundo y tiene el potencial de ser ampliado para incorporar otras técnicas geodésicas y para estudiar la deformación transitoria. Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica. Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Costa Rica

Long-term volcanic subsidence provides insight into inter-eruptive processes, which comprise the longest portion of the eruptive cycle. Ground based geodetic surveys of Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV), northern CA, document subsidence at rates of \({\sim }-\)10 mm/yr between 1954 and 2004. The long observation period plus the duration and stable magnitude of this signal presents an ideal opportunity to study long-term volcanic deformation, but this first requires accurate knowledge of the geometry and magnitude of the source. Best-fitting analytical source models to past leveling and GPS datasets show conflicting source parameters - primarily the model depth. To overcome this, we combine multiple tracks of InSAR data, each with a different look angle, to improve upon the spatial resolution of ground based measurements. We compare the results from InSAR to those of past geodetic studies, extending the geodetic record to 2011 and demonstrating that subsidence at MLV continues at \({\sim }-\)10 mm/yr. Using geophysical inversions, we obtain the best-fitting analytical source model - a sill located at 9–10 km depth beneath the caldera. This model geometry is similar to those of past studies, providing a good fit to the high spatial density of InSAR measurements, whilst accounting for the high ratio of vertical to horizontal deformation derived from InSAR and recorded by existing leveling and GPS datasets. We discuss possible causes of subsidence and show that this model supports the hypothesis that deformation at MLV is driven by tectonic extension, gravitational loading, plus a component of volume loss at depth, most likely due to cooling and crystallisation within the intrusive complex that underlies the edifice. Past InSAR surveys at MLV, and throughout the Cascades, are of variable success due to dense vegetation, snow cover and atmospheric artefacts. In this study, we demonstrate how InSAR may be successfully used in this setting by applying a suite of multi temporal analysis methods that account for atmospheric and orbital noise sources. These methods include: a stacking strategy based upon the noise characteristics of each dataset; pixel-wise rate-map formation (\(\pi \)-RATE); and persistent scatterer InSAR (StaMPS).

Between January 2011 and April 2012, Santorini volcano (Greece) experienced a period of unrest characterised by the onset of detectable seismicity and caldera-wide uplift. This episode of inflation represented the first sizeable intrusion of magma beneath Santorini in the past 50 years. We employ a new approach using Rn-δ C systematics to identify and quantify the source of diffuse degassing at Santorini during the period of renewed activity. Soil CO flux measurements were made across a network of sites on Nea Kameni between September 2010 and January 2012. Gas samples were collected in April and September 2011 for isotopic analysis of CO (δ C), and radon detectors were deployed during September 2011 to measure (Rn). Our results reveal a change in the pattern of degassing from the summit of the volcano (Nea Kameni) and suggest an increase in diffuse CO emissions between September 2010 and January 2012. High-CO-flux soil gas samples have δ C ∼ 0 ‰. Using this value and other evidence from the literature we conclude that these CO emissions from Santorini were a mixture between CO sourced from magma, and CO released by the thermal or metamorphic breakdown of crustal limestone. We suggest that this mixing of magmatic and crustal carbonate sources may account more broadly for the typical range of δ C values of CO (from ∼ - 4 ‰ to ∼ + 1 ‰) in diffuse volcanic and fumarole gas emissions around the Mediterranean, without the need to invoke unusual mantle source compositions. At Santorini a mixing model involving magmatic CO (with δ C of - 3 ± 2 ‰ and elevated (Rn)/CO ratios ∼ 10 - 10 Bq kg) and CO released from decarbonation of crustal limestone (with (Rn)/CO ∼ 30-300 Bq kg, and δ C of + 5 ‰) can account for the δ C and (Rn)/CO characteristics of the 'high flux' gas source. This model suggests ∼ 60 % of the carbon in the high flux deep CO end member is of magmatic origin. This combination of δ C and (Rn) measurements has potential to quantify magmatic and crustal contributions to the diffuse outgassing of CO in volcanic areas, especially those where breakdown of crustal limestone is likely to contribute significantly to the CO flux. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

S U M M A R Y Magma movement and fault slip alter the magnitude and orientation of the stress in the surrounding crust. Observations of a sequence of events clustered in space and time provide information about the triggering mechanism and stress interactions between magma intrusion, earthquakes and eruptions. We investigate the synand post-intrusion stress changes associated with the 2007 Gelei dyke intrusion episode and subsequent eruption of nearby Oldonyo Lengai. Previous studies produced a kinematic model of the 2007 June–August sequence involving ∼1m slip on a normal fault followed by the intrusion of the 7–10-km long Gelei dyke, collapse of a shallow graben and the deflation of the Gelei magma chamber. Immediately following this, the volcano Oldoinyo Lengai (