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This research assesses the transition of a fossil fuel-based electricity production jurisdiction to a renewable-based electricity jurisdiction through an extensive scenario analysis. This fills a knowledge gap where a wide-range of fossil-to-renewable electricity generation pathways is compared within a single analysis framework. To conduct this study, a novel data-intensive electricity system model was developed with the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system and applied to evaluate alternative electricity generation mix scenarios to the year 2050. A case study for Alberta, a fossil fuels-based province in Canada, was conducted. A total of 382 scenarios were analyzed considering different renewable pathways and varying key uncertain future conditions. The greenhouse gas emission abatement and marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs of each scenario were evaluated and compared. Several renewable-based scenarios resulted in significant greenhouse gas abatement at lower costs than the fossil-fuel based business-as-usual scenario. The maximum greenhouse gas abatement possible at a net cost reduction compared to the business-as-usual scenario was found through a specific combination of wind, hydro, and solar power which resulted in over a 90% reduction from 2005 emission levels at −$1.8/t of carbon dioxide equivalent abated. The results of this study provide policy insight for jurisdictions transitioning away from fossil fuel-based electricity to renewables. • A new Long-range Energy Alternatives model is developed and applied. • Extensive analysis of energy transition for a fossil-fuel electricity sector. • 382 scenarios representing different technology mixes and assumptions are evaluated. • Highly renewable technology mixes offer system cost savings compared baseline. • Over 90% greenhouse gas mitigation technically and economically feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As demand for natural gas increases, it is important to understand its life cycle emission intensity. A framework is developed for performing bottom-up greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle assessment of natural gas transmission pipelines to assist project environmental assessments. Three large-scale pipelines in Canada were examined: Alliance mainline (50 million m3/d, 3000 km), Prince Rupert phase 1 (PR1, 57 million m3/d, 878 km), and Prince Rupert phase 2 (PR2, 102 million m3/d, 878 km). Fundamental engineering principles are used for calculation accuracy, with a sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters. The model boundary includes pipeline construction, operation, and decommissioning. The resulting transportation GHG emission intensities are 1.49, 0.77, and 1.78 gCO 2 eq/GJ.km for the Alliance, PR1, and PR2 projects, respectively. The operating phase represents 78%–95% of the overall emissions. Operating at higher pressures could reduce emission intensity by up to 49% by increasing flow efficiency. The research provides a user-friendly open-source template that can be used to examine alternative scenarios. Image 1 • Operating phase represents 78%–95% of the pipelines' overall emissions. • Transporting rich natural gas at high pressure can reduce emissions. • Pipeline emissions are most sensitive to flowrate and operating pressure. • Fugitive emissions are the largest source of uncertainty in the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive LCA (life cycle assessment) for transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) derived from Canada's oil sands was conducted, and all the current possible pathways from bitumen extraction to use in vehicles were explored. Authors, in earlier studies, have presented the energy consumption and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission results for individual unit operations-recovery, extraction, upgrading and refining. The LC (life cycle) inventory data for the current LCA study were obtained from theoretical model named FUNNEL-GHG-OS ( FUN damental E N gineering Principl E s- based Mode L for Estimation of G reen H ouse G ases in the O il S ands), developed from fundamental engineering principles. The impact of the cogeneration of electricity in oil sands recovery, extraction, and upgrading on the LC GHG emissions of gasoline was explored. LC WTW (well-to-wheel) GHG emissions range from 106.8 to 116 g-CO 2 equivalent/MJ of gasoline, 100.5 to 115.2 g-CO 2 equivalent/MJ of diesel, and 96.4 to 109.2 g-CO 2 equivalent/MJ of jet fuel, depending on the pathway. Combustion emissions (64.7%–70.3%) are the largest constituent of WTW emissions for gasoline production; recovery (through surface mining and steam assisted gravity drainage) forms 7.2%–16% depending on the LC production process of gasoline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model – FUNNEL-GHG-OS ( FUN damental E N gineering Principl E s-based Mode L for Estimation of G reen H ouse G ases in the O il S ands) was developed to estimate project-specific energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in major recovery and extraction processes in the oil sands, namely surface mining and in␣situ production. This model estimates consumption of diesel (4.4–7.1 MJ/GJ of bitumen), natural gas (52.7–86.4 MJ/GJ of bitumen) and electricity (1.8–2.1 kW h/GJ of bitumen) as fuels in surface mining. The model also estimates the consumption of natural gas (123–462.7 MJ/GJ of bitumen) and electricity (1.2–3.5 kW h/GJ of bitumen) in steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), based on fundamental engineering principles. Cogeneration in the oil sands, with excess electricity exported to Alberta’s grid, was also explored. Natural gas consumption forms a major portion of the total energy consumption in surface mining and SAGD and thus is a main contributor to GHG emissions. Emissions in surface mining and SAGD range from 4.4 to 7.4 gCO 2 eq/MJ of bitumen and 8.0 to 34.0 gCO 2 eq/MJ of bitumen, respectively, representing a wide range of variability in oil sands projects. Depending upon the cogeneration technology and the efficiency of the process, emissions in oil sands recovery and extraction can be reduced by 16–25% in surface mining and 33–48% in SAGD. Further, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effects of key parameters on the GHG emissions in surface mining and SAGD. Temperature and the consumption of warm water in surface mining and the steam-to-oil ratio (SOR) in SAGD are major parameters affecting GHG emissions. The developed model can predict the energy consumption and emissions for surface mining and SAGD for oil sands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to investigate greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for the iron, gold, and potash mining sectors in Canada. These sectors have not widely accepted the available cleaner production strategies and so there is potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is important to fully realize this potential as soon as possible to support efforts to limit global warming. We conducted cost-benefit analyses of implementable greenhouse gas reduction strategies in order to inform policy and industry. Twenty-four greenhouse gas emission reduction options not yet implemented in Canada were identified following a review of current processes and operations at 102 mine sites. We developed a novel model to assess these options, integrating technology diffusion rates and long-term energy-environmental modelling. We found that the maximum greenhouse gas reduction potential can be realized through simultaneously implementing fifteen technology changes, eliminating 21 million tonnes of CO 2 eq. by 2050. Furthermore, we showed that the marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs are negative, indicating that the industry would also achieve long-term cost savings if these changes were pursued. Implementing high pressure grinding rolls in iron mining and electric and diesel hybrid haul trucks in underground gold mining and potash mining have the most favorable greenhouse gas abatement costs of −4120, −3096, −701 $/tonne, respectively. These results show that these technology changes should be pursued since both environmental benefit and cost savings would be achieved. Image 1 • A bottom-up energy model was developed for iron, gold, and potash mining sectors. • Twenty-four GHG mitigation options were identified and assessed. • Energy consumption reduction potential is 9% through 2020–2050 across the sectors. • 10% and 20% of GHG emissions could be reduced in iron and gold mining, respectively. • More than 95% of the GHG emission reductions have negative marginal abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this study is to assess energy-use reduction strategies in extraction and upgrading of oil sands for greenhouse gas mitigation in Canada's oil sands sector. A bottom-up integrated resource-planning model for oil sands extraction and upgrading processes was developed. The model is a novel application of an energy accounting-based framework and accurately simulates energy demand and supply in the oil sands from 2007 to 2050. Thirty energy-use reduction scenarios were evaluated covering in situ extraction, surface mining, and bitumen upgrading processes. The energy savings, greenhouse gas emission mitigation, and costs associated with each scenario were determined with the model. Implementing in situ energy-use reduction measures resulted in the highest single measure greenhouse gas mitigation potential of 86 million tonnes CO 2 e at a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost of -$91/tonne of CO 2 e by 2050. For the scenarios in surface mining and bitumen upgrading, the highest single measure greenhouse gas mitigation potentials are 17 and 16 million tonnes CO 2 e by 2050 at marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs of -$65/tonne of CO 2 e and -$21/tonne of CO 2 e, respectively. All strategies result in a negative $/tonne of CO 2 e cost, indicating a net benefit for investing in the strategies. If the strategies are implemented together, there is an ultimate potential to reduce sector-wide cumulative energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the oil sands by 8% and 7%, respectively, by 2050. Decision-makers at company or government levels can use these results to support both environmental and cost-saving initiatives. Image 1 • A bottom-up energy supply-demand model for the oil sands sector was developed. • Sector-wide energy consumption could be reduced up to 8%. • An annual average of 7.6 million tonnes of GHG emissions could be mitigated. • 65% of evaluated GHG mitigation potential is from in situ extraction. • All GHG emission mitigation strategies have negative marginal abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]