Search

The identification of appropriately conservative statistical distributions is needed to predict microbial peak events in drinking water sources explicitly. In this study, Poisson and mixed Poisson distributions with different upper tail behaviors were used for modeling source water Cryptosporidium and Giardia data from 30 drinking water treatment plants. Small differences (<0.5-log) were found between the "best" estimates of the mean Cryptosporidium and Giardia concentrations with the Poisson-gamma and Poisson-log-normal models. However, the upper bound of the 95% credibility interval on the mean Cryptosporidium concentrations of the Poisson-log-normal model was considerably higher (>0.5-log) than that of the Poisson-gamma model at four sites. The improper choice of a model may, therefore, mislead the assessment of treatment requirements and health risks associated with the water supply. Discrimination between models using the marginal deviance information criterion (mDIC) was unachievable because differences in upper tail behaviors were not well characterized with available data sets ( n < 30 ). Therefore, the gamma and the log-normal distributions fit the data equally well but may predict different risk estimates when they are used as an input distribution in an exposure assessment. The collection of event-based monitoring data and the modeling of larger routine monitoring data sets are recommended to identify appropriately conservative distributions to predict microbial peak events., (© 2020 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Temporal variations in concentrations of pathogenic microorganisms in surface waters are well known to be influenced by hydrometeorological events. Reasonable methods for accounting for microbial peaks in the quantification of drinking water treatment requirements need to be addressed. Here, we applied a novel method for data collection and model validation to explicitly account for weather events (rainfall, snowmelt) when concentrations of pathogens are estimated in source water. Online in situ β-d-glucuronidase activity measurements were used to trigger sequential grab sampling of source water to quantify Cryptosporidium and Giardia concentrations during rainfall and snowmelt events at an urban and an agricultural drinking water treatment plant in Quebec, Canada. We then evaluate if mixed Poisson distributions fitted to monthly sampling data ( n = 30 samples) could accurately predict daily mean concentrations during these events. We found that using the gamma distribution underestimated high Cryptosporidium and Giardia concentrations measured with routine or event-based monitoring. However, the log-normal distribution accurately predicted these high concentrations. The selection of a log-normal distribution in preference to a gamma distribution increased the annual mean concentration by less than 0.1-log but increased the upper bound of the 95% credibility interval on the annual mean by about 0.5-log. Therefore, considering parametric uncertainty in an exposure assessment is essential to account for microbial peaks in risk assessment., (© 2020 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Background: The occurrence of faecal pathogens in drinking water resources constitutes a threat to the supply of safe drinking water, even in industrialized nations. To efficiently assess and monitor the risk posed by these pathogens, sampling deserves careful design, based on preliminary knowledge on their distribution dynamics in water. For the protozoan pathogens Cryptosporidium and Giardia, only little is known about their spatial distribution within drinking water supplies, especially at fine scale., Methods: Two-dimensional distribution maps were generated by sampling cross-sections at meter resolution in two different zones of a drinking water reservoir. Samples were analysed for protozoan pathogens as well as for E. coli, turbidity and physico-chemical parameters., Results: Parasites displayed heterogeneous distribution patterns, as reflected by significant (oo)cyst density gradients along reservoir depth. Spatial correlations between parasites and E. coli were observed near the reservoir inlet but were absent in the downstream lacustrine zone. Measurements of surface and subsurface flow velocities suggest a role of local hydrodynamics on these spatial patterns., Conclusion: This fine-scale spatial study emphasizes the importance of sampling design (site, depth and position on the reservoir) for the acquisition of representative parasite data and for optimization of microbial risk assessment and monitoring. Such spatial information should prove useful to the modelling of pathogen transport dynamics in drinking water supplies.

Because of their significant public health impact, waterborne Cryptosporidium and Giardia have been monitored in surface water in order to assess microbial quality of water bodies used for drinking water production and/or for recreational purposes. In this context, sampling strategy is of key importance and should be representative enough to appropriately assess the related microbial risk. This, however, requires sound knowledge on the behaviour of both pathogens in water. In the present study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia was explored in the rural Upper-Sûre watershed used for drinking water production in Luxembourg. By subdividing it into three compartments including (i) sub-catchments, (ii) the Sûre River fed by the sub-catchments and (iii) the Upper-Sûre reservoir fed by the Sûre River, parasite distribution was assessed using sampling designs adapted to the hydro-dynamic characteristics of the respective compartments. Results highlighted the high spatial and temporal variability in parasite distribution at watershed scale, as well as the prevalence of Giardia over Cryptosporidium. Besides land use features and catchment characteristics, hydro-climatology appeared to be a major driver of parasite behaviour in the watershed. It introduced a seasonal trend in their occurrence, highest densities being detected during the wet season. Peaks of contamination triggered out by rainfall-induced runoff were further observed in the three compartments. In the Sûre River, Cryptosporidium and Giardia fluxes peaked at 10(9) and 10(10) (oo)cysts.d(-1), respectively, and were discharged into the drinking water reservoir, where they underwent a 2 to 3 log10 removal rate. Despite this, parasite fluxes entering the drinking water treatment plant were still high (10(6) to 10(7) (oo)cysts.d(-1)) and stressed on the need for improved watershed management upstream the water treatment barrier. The catchment-wide analysis described here constitutes a valuable tool for assessment of catchment microbial dynamics, especially within the framework of Water Safety Plans., (© 2013.)

Temporal variations in concentrations of pathogenic microorganisms in surface waters are well known to be influenced by hydrometeorological events. Reasonable methods for accounting for microbial peaks in the quantification of drinking water treatment requirements need to be addressed. Here, we applied a novel method for data collection and model validation to explicitly account for weather events (rainfall, snowmelt) when concentrations of pathogens are estimated in source water. Online in situ β‐d‐glucuronidase activity measurements were used to trigger sequential grab sampling of source water to quantify Cryptosporidium and Giardia concentrations during rainfall and snowmelt events at an urban and an agricultural drinking water treatment plant in Quebec, Canada. We then evaluate if mixed Poisson distributions fitted to monthly sampling data (n = 30 samples) could accurately predict daily mean concentrations during these events. We found that using the gamma distribution underestimated high Cryptosporidium and Giardia concentrations measured with routine or event‐based monitoring. However, the log‐normal distribution accurately predicted these high concentrations. The selection of a log‐normal distribution in preference to a gamma distribution increased the annual mean concentration by less than 0.1‐log but increased the upper bound of the 95% credibility interval on the annual mean by about 0.5‐log. Therefore, considering parametric uncertainty in an exposure assessment is essential to account for microbial peaks in risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Parametric models were developed to assess source water E. coli to protozoa ratios. • Ratios were 1.0 to 2.0-log lower in small rural rivers than in large urban rivers. • Low E. coli concentrations in small rivers during winter drove these differences. • There were no proportionalities between mean E. coli and mean protozoa concentrations. • An E. coli trigger level would have limited value for defining treatment requirements. Minimum treatment requirements are set in response to established or anticipated levels of enteric pathogens in the source water of drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs). For surface water, contamination can be determined directly by monitoring reference pathogens or indirectly by measuring fecal indicators such as Escherichia coli (E. coli). In the latter case, a quantitative interpretation of E. coli for estimating reference pathogen concentrations could be used to define treatment requirements. This study presents the statistical analysis of paired E. coli and reference protozoa (Cryptosporidium, Giardia) data collected monthly for two years in source water from 27 DWTPs supplied by rivers in Canada. E. coli / Cryptosporidium and E. coli / Giardia ratios in source water were modeled as the ratio of two correlated lognormal variables. To evaluate the potential of E. coli for defining protozoa treatment requirements, risk-based critical mean protozoa concentrations in source water were determined with a reverse quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model. Model assumptions were selected to be consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidelines for drinking-water quality. The sensitivity of mean E. coli concentration trigger levels to identify these critical concentrations in source water was then evaluated. Results showed no proportionalities between the log of mean E. coli concentrations and the log of mean protozoa concentrations. E. coli /protozoa ratios at DWTPs supplied by small rivers in agricultural and forested areas were typically 1.0 to 2.0-log lower than at DWTPs supplied by large rivers in urban areas. The seasonal variations analysis revealed that these differences were related to low mean E. coli concentrations during winter in small rivers. To achieve the WHO target of 10−6 disability-adjusted life year (DALY) per person per year, a minimum reduction of 4.0-log of Cryptosporidium would be required for 20 DWTPs, and a minimum reduction of 4.0-log of Giardia would be needed for all DWTPs. A mean E. coli trigger level of 50 CFU 100 mL−1 would be a sensitive threshold to identify critical mean concentrations for Cryptosporidium but not for Giardia. Treatment requirements higher than 3.0-log would be needed at DWTPs with mean E. coli concentrations as low as 30 CFU 100 mL−1 for Cryptosporidium and 3 CFU 100 mL−1 for Giardia. Therefore, an E. coli trigger level would have limited value for defining health-based treatment requirements for protozoa at DWTPs supplied by small rivers in rural areas. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]