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Recently, a record of large, mostly unknown volcanic eruptions occurring during the younger half of the last glacial period (12–60 ka) has been compiled from ice-core records. In both Greenland and Antarctica these eruptions led to significant deposition of sulfate aerosols, which were likely transported in the stratosphere, thereby inducing a climate response. Here we report the first attempt to identify the climatic impact of volcanic eruptions in the last glacial period from ice cores. Average negative anomalies in high-resolution Greenland and Antarctic oxygen isotope records suggest a multi-annual volcanic cooling. Due to internal climate variability, glaciological noise, and uncertainties in the eruption age, the high-frequency noise level often exceeds the cooling induced by individual eruptions. Thus, cooling estimates for individual eruptions cannot be determined reliably. The average isotopic anomaly at the time of deposition also remains uncertain, since the signal degrades over time as a result of layer thinning and diffusion, which act to lower the resolution of both the oxygen isotope and sulfur records. Regardless of these quantitative uncertainties, there is a clear relationship of the magnitude of isotopic anomaly and sulfur deposition. Further, the isotopic signal during the cold stadial periods is larger in Greenland and smaller in Antarctica than during the milder interstadial periods for eruptions of equal sulfur deposition magnitude. In contrast, the largest reductions in snow accumulation associated with the eruptions occur during the interstadial periods. This may be the result of a state-dependent climate sensitivity, but we cannot rule out the possibility that changes in the sensitivity of the isotope thermometer or in the radiative forcing of eruptions of a given sulfur ejection may play a role as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a significant influence of volcanic activity on Holocene climate is well-established, an equally prominent role of major eruptions in the climate variability and regime shifts during the Quaternary glacial cycles has been suggested. Previous statistical assessments of this were challenged by inaccurate synchronization of large volcanic eruptions to changes in past climate. Here, this is alleviated by combining a new record of bipolar volcanism from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores with records of abrupt climate change derived from the same ice cores. We show that bipolar volcanic eruptions occurred significantly more frequently than expected by chance just before the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger events, which are the most prominent large-scale abrupt climate changes in the last glacial period. Out of 20 abrupt warming events in the 12–60 ka period, 5 (7) occur within 20 (50) years after a bipolar eruption. We hypothesize that this may be a result of the direct influence of volcanic cooling on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which is widely regarded as the main climate subsystem involved in Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. Transitions from a weak to a strong circulation mode may be triggered by cooling in the North Atlantic given that the circulation is close to a stability threshold. We illustrate this suggestion by simulations with an ocean-only general circulation model forced by short-term volcanic cooling. The analysis presented suggests that large eruptions may act as short-term triggers for large-scale abrupt climate change and may explain some of the variability of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. While we argue that the bipolar catalogue used here covers a sufficiently large portion of the eruptions with the strongest global climate impact, volcanic events restricted to either the Northern or Southern Hemisphere may likewise contribute to abrupt climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60–9 kyr before 2000 CE (b2k). Over most of the investigated interval the ice cores are synchronized, making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only list Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kgkm-2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kgkm-2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 737 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 kyr period – for which the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is found at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the ratio of Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. A total of 25 of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years, and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the Tambora, Indonesia, eruption (1815 CE). Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16–9 kab2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. This confirms the suggestion that the isostatic unloading of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets may be related to the enhanced NH volcanic activity. Our ice-core-based volcanic sulfate records provide the atmospheric sulfate burden and estimates of climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dansgaard‐Oeschger cycles of the last glacial period are attributed to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation. An outstanding problem is whether these are driven by a self‐sustained oscillation of the Earth system, by stochastic perturbations in terms of freshwater discharges into the ocean or extremes in atmospheric dynamics, or by another driver. Their complex temporal pattern suggests that the transitions in between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) phases are noise induced and thus unpredictable. Here, evidence is presented that this is unlikely because the transitions can be predicted to a certain degree within a few hundred years after stadial onset from consistent trends in Greenland dust proxies. These trends could be a manifestation of the climate system reorganizing at a specific timescale. What physically determines these highly variable timescales remains unexplained. Nevertheless, constraining the dynamics underlying these abrupt climate changes is an important step to uncover their causes. Plain Language Summary: The Dansgaard‐Oeschger events of the last glacial period are the most significant abrupt, large‐scale climate changes known. Although they occurred during different climatic background conditions, they are invaluable for benchmarking climate models used to predict anthropogenic climate change and for better understanding tipping points. Changes in ocean circulation are believed to bring about the large temperature contrasts. Climate models can reproduce such changes, but it is not agreed on whether these should be driven by self‐sustained oscillations of the ocean, or excitations out of one climate regime to another by random perturbations of the atmosphere or ice sheets, among other things. Here, Greenland ice core data are used to constrain the scenarios. It is shown that the transitions can be predicted from gradual trends in dust records, which is in contrast to the latter hypothesis of random perturbations. Key Points: Greenland dust and calcium ice core records of the last glacial period are investigatedDansgaard‐Oeschger events are successfully predicted from trends and amplitudes of these proxiesDespite a complex temporal pattern, these abrupt climate transitions cannot be purely noise induced [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most pronounced mode of climate variability during the last glacial period are the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events. There is no consensus of the underlying dynamical mechanism of these abrupt climate changes and they are elusive in most simulations of state-of-the-art coupled climate models. There has been significant debate over whether the climate system is exhibiting self-sustained oscillations with vastly varying periods across these events, or rather noise-induced jumps in between two quasi-stable regimes. In previous studies, statistical model comparison has been employed to the NGRIP ice core record from Greenland in order to compare different classes of stochastic dynamical systems, representing different dynamical paradigms. Such model comparison studies typically rely on accurately reproducing the observed records. We aim to avoid this due to the large amount of stochasticity and uncertainty both on long and short time scales in the record. Instead, we focus on the most important qualitative features of the data, as captured by summary statistics. These are computed from the distributions of waiting times in between events and residence times in warm and cold regimes, as well as the stationary density and the autocorrelation function. We perform Bayesian inference and model comparison experiments based solely on these summary statistics via Approximate Bayesian Computation. This yields an alternative approach to existing studies that helps to reconcile and synthesize insights from Bayesian model comparison and qualitative statistical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]