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What are the main morphological factors that control the heterogeneous responses of debris-covered glaciers to climate change in the southern central Himalaya? A debate is open whether thinning rates on debris-covered glaciers are comparable to those of debris-free ones. Previous studies have adopted a deterministic approach, which is indispensable, but is also limiting in that only a few glaciers can be monitored. In this context, we propose a statistical analysis based on a wider glacier population as a complement to these deterministic studies. We analysed 28 glaciers situated on the southern slopes of Mt. Everest in the central southern Himalaya during the period 1992–2008. This study combined data compiled by three distinct studies for a common period and population of glaciers for use in a robust statistical analysis. Generally, surface gradient was the main morphological factor controlling the features and responses of the glaciers to climate change. In particular, the key points that emerged are as follows. 1) Reduced downstream surface gradient is responsible for increased glacier thinning. 2) The development of supraglacial ponds is a further controlling factor of glacier thinning: where supraglacial ponds develop, the glaciers register further surface lowering. 3) Debris coverage and thickness index were not found to be significantly responsible for the development of supraglacial ponds, changes in elevation, or shifts in snow line altitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic time series for high-elevation Himalayan regions are decidedly scarce. Although glacier shrinkage is now sufficiently well described, the changes in precipitation and temperature at these elevations are less clear. This contribution shows that the surface area variations of unconnected glacial ponds, i.e. ponds not directly connected to glacier ice, but that may have a glacier located in their hydrological basin, can be considered as suitable proxies for detecting past changes in the main hydrological components of the water balance. On the south side of Mt Everest, glacier melt and precipitation have been found to be the main drivers of unconnected pond surface area changes (detected mainly with Landsat imagery). In general, unconnected ponds have decreased significantly by approximately 10±5% in terms of surface area over the last 50 years (1963-2013 period) in the study region. Here, an increase in precipitation occurred until the mid-1990s followed by a decrease until recent years. Until the 1990s, glacier melt was constant. An increase occurred in the early 2000s, while a declining trend in maximum temperature has caused a reduction in the glacier melt during recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the link between area increase of Imja Tsho (Lake) and changes of Imja Glacier (area ~25km2) under the influence of climate change using multitemporal satellite imagery and local climate data. Between 1962 and 2013, Imja Lake expanded from 0.03±0.01 to 1.35±0.05 km2 at a rate of 0.026±0.001 km2 a-1. The mean glacier-wide flow velocity was 37±30ma-1 during 1992–93 and 23±15ma-1 during 2013–14, indicating a decreasing velocity. A mean elevation change of –1.29±0.71ma-1 was observed over the lower part of the glacier in the period 2001–14, with a rate of –1.06±0.63ma-1 in 2001–08 and –1.56±0.80ma-1 in 2008–14. We conclude that the decrease in flow velocity is mainly associated with reduced accumulation due to a decrease in precipitation during the last few decades. Furthermore, glacier ablation has increased due to increasing maximum temperatures during the post-monsoon months. Decreased glacier flow velocities and increased mass losses induce the formation and subsequent expansion of glacial lakes under favourable topographic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Assessment of future water resources under climate change is required in the Himalayas, where hydrological cycle is poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on the upper Dudh Koshi river of Nepal (151 km 2 , 4200–8848 m a.s.l.) at the toe of Mt. Everest, nesting the debris covered Khumbu, and Khangri Nup glaciers (62 km 2 ). New data gathered during three years of field campaigns (2012–2014) were used to set up a glacio-hydrological model describing stream flows, snow and ice melt, ice cover thickness and glaciers' flow dynamics. The model was validated, and used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100. Climate projections are used from three Global Climate Models used in the recent IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flow statistics are estimated for two reference decades 2045–2054, and 2090–2099, and compared against control run CR, 2012–2014. During CR we found a contribution of ice melt to stream flows of 55% yearly, with snow melt contributing for 19%. Future flows are predicted to increase in monsoon season, but to decrease yearly (− 4% vs CR on average) at 2045–2054. At the end of century large reduction would occur in all seasons, i.e. − 26% vs CR on average at 2090–2099. At half century yearly contribution of ice melt would be on average 45%, and snow melt 28%. At the end of century ice melt would be 31%, and snow contribution 39%. Glaciers in the area are projected to thin largely up to 6500 m a.s.l. until 2100, reducing their volume by − 50% or more, and their ice covered area by − 30% or more. According to our results, in the future water resources in the upper Dudh Koshi would decrease, and depend largely upon snow melt and rainfall, so that adaptation measures to modified water availability will be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the effects of glacier-air interactions on the Himalayan glacier mass balance. Until this knowledge gap is filled, a reliable projection of the future changes in the Himalayan glaciers is hardly possible. Here, we describe the drying effect of the katabatic winds on the up-valley summer monsoon flows by creating favorable conditions for local convergence-induced precipitation to occur near the glacier fronts. We postulate that this retarding effect on the up-valley monsoon flows results in a negative feedback mechanism mediated by glacier-air interactions, in which glacial retreat pushes precipitation upwards as the down-valley katabatic winds weaken, resulting in greater local precipitation and enhanced snow accumulation across the upper parts of the Himalayan glaciers. Our analyses are based on the exclusive data recorded in the Khumbu valley and the Langtang valley in the Nepalese Himalayas. These data revealed higher afternoon precipitation in summer associated with surface wind convergence near the glacier fronts and a sharp decrease in the temperature lapse rate over the glacier surfaces. The principle of the observed phenomena was proven by our high-resolution modeling sensitive experiment, which involved two simulations, one with the present glaciers and the other without. This numerical experiment also supports the proposed negative feedback. Furthermore, we report a low deuterium excess near the glacier fronts, indicating below-cloud re-evaporation facilitated by the local convergence induced by the dry katabatic winds. Our study suggests that current models may overestimate the retreat of Himalayan glaciers because they have completely ignored the glacier-air interactions. • In Central Himalaya summer afternoon precipitation are associated with surface wind convergence near the glacier fronts. • A sharp decrease in the temperature lapse rate near glacier fronts supports the convergence of air flows. • Glacier retreat may result in greater local precipitation and snow accumulation on the upper parts of the Himalayan glaciers. • This negative feedback mechanism may mitigate the effect of future warming on the Himalayan glacier mass balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]