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Background: The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery showed that countries with surgeon, anesthetist, and obstetrician (SAO) densities of 20-40 SAO/100,000 population were associated with improved health outcomes and recommended a global surgical workforce scale-up by 2030. Whether countries would be able to achieve such scale-up efforts in that time-frame is unknown., Methods: A differential equation model was used to estimate the growth rate and number of SAO necessary for each country to reach the aforementioned SAO densities. Workforce data from Mexico and India were used to estimate achievable rates of SAO scale-up for middle- and low-income countries, respectively. Secular surgical growth rates were estimated to demonstrate what might occur without dedicated scale-up efforts., Results: To reach at least 20 SAO/100,000 population in all countries by 2030, over 808 thousand SAO need to be trained by 2030. To reach at least 40 SAO/100,000 population, over 2.1 million SAO need to be trained. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to Mexico's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 66% of countries would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to India's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 56% would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030., Conclusion: With dedicated efforts in surgical workforce scale-up, significant gains in SAO density can be made worldwide. However, without intervention, many countries are unlikely to improve their current workforce densities. Investments in workforce scale-up are likely to yield workforce gains that mirror current resource states.

Objective: The Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) Department of Surgery established the Global Surgery Initiative (GSI) in 2013 to transform volunteer and mission-based global surgery efforts into an educational experience in surgical systems strengthening. The objective of this newly conceived mission is not only to perform advanced surgery but also to train surgeons beyond MGH through international partnerships across disciplines. At its inception, a clear pathway to achieve this was not established, and we sought to identify steps that were critical to realizing our mission statement., Setting: Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA and Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital, Mbarara, Uganda, Participants: Members of the MGH and MRRH Departments of Surgery including faculty, fellows, and residents, Results: The MGH GSI steering committee identified 4 steps for sustaining a robust global surgery program: (1) administer a survey to the MGH departmental faculty, fellows, and residents to gauge levels of experience and interest, (2) catalog all ongoing global surgical efforts and projects involving MGH surgical faculty, fellows, and residents to identify areas of overlap and opportunities for collaboration, (3) establish a longitudinal partnership with an academic surgical department in a limited-resource setting (Mbarara University of Science and Technology (MUST) at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH)), and (4) design a formal curriculum in global surgery to provide interested surgical residents with structured opportunities for research, education, and clinical work., Conclusions: By organizing the collective experiences of colleagues, synchronizing efforts of new and former efforts, and leveraging the funding resources available at the local institution, the MGH GSI hopes to provide academic benefit to our foreign partners as well as our trainees through longitudinal collaboration. Providing additional financial and organizational support might encourage more surgeons to become involved in global surgery efforts. Creating a partnership with a hospital in a limited-resource setting and establishing a formal global surgery curriculum for our residents allows for education and longitudinal collaboration. We believe this is a replicable model for building other academic global surgery endeavors that aim to strengthen health and surgical systems beyond their own institutions., (Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: More than 2 billion people are unable to receive surgical care based on operating theatre density alone. The vision of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is universal access to safe, affordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. We aimed to estimate the number of individuals worldwide without access to surgical services as defined by the Commission's vision., Methods: We modelled access to surgical services in 196 countries with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and affordability. We built a chance tree for each country to model the probability of surgical access with respect to each dimension, and from this we constructed a statistical model to estimate the proportion of the population in each country that does not have access to surgical services. We accounted for uncertainty with one-way sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation for missing data, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis., Findings: At least 4·8 billion people (95% posterior credible interval 4·6-5·0 [67%, 64-70]) of the world's population do not have access to surgery. The proportion of the population without access varied widely when stratified by epidemiological region: greater than 95% of the population in south Asia and central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to care, whereas less than 5% of the population in Australasia, high-income North America, and western Europe lack access., Interpretation: Most of the world's population does not have access to surgical care, and access is inequitably distributed. The near absence of access in many low-income and middle-income countries represents a crisis, and as the global health community continues to support the advancement of universal health coverage, increasing access to surgical services will play a central role in ensuring health care for all., Funding: None., (Copyright © 2015 Alkire et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)