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1. The global, regional, and national burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Atalel Fentahun Awedew, Hannah Han, Behzad Abbasi, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Omar Almidani, Erfan Amini, Jalal Arabloo, Ayele Mamo Argaw, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Daniel Atlaw, Maciej Banach, Amadou Barrow, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja, Boris Bikbov, Belay Boda Abule Bodicha, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Linh Phuong Doan, Sahar Eftekharzadeh, Ali Fatehizadeh, Tushar Garg, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Motuma Erena Getachew, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Syed Amir Gilani, Mahaveer Golechha, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Simon I Hay, Mohammad-Salar Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Ayesha Humayun, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Shubha Jayaram, Seyed Behzad Jazayeri, Alelign Tasew Jema, Ali Kabir, Ibraheem M Karaye, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Iván Landires, Sang-woong Lee, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Stephen S Lim, Stany W Lobo, Azeem Majeed, Mohammad-Reza Malekpour, Narges Malih, Ahmad Azam Malik, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Tomislav Mestrovic, Irmina Maria Michalek, Gedefaye Nibret Mihrtie, Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Ali H Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Christopher J L Murray, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Son Hoang Nguyen, Ali Nowroozi, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Mayowa O Owolabi, Shrikant Pawar, Norberto Perico, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Chethan Sampath, Jeevan K Shetty, Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat, Jasvinder A Singh, Ker-Kan Tan, Gebremaryam Temesgen, Musliu Adetola Tolani, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Rohollah Valizadeh, Bay Vo, Linh Gia Vu, Lin Yang, Fereshteh Yazdanpanah, Arzu Yigit, Vahit Yiğit, Ismaeel Yunusa, Mazyar Zahir, Theo Vos, M Ashworth Dirac, Awedew, Atalel Fentahun, Han, Hannah, Abbasi, Behzad, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Mihrtie, Gedefaye Nibret, and GBD 2019 Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Collaborators

Subjects
Male, Psychiatry and Mental health, Health (social science), Prostatic Hyperplasia, Humans, Bayes Theorem, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Geriatrics and Gerontology, Global Health, Family Practice, Aged, Global Burden of Disease
Abstract

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Benign prostatic hyperplasia is a common urological disease affecting older men worldwide, but comprehensive data about the global, regional, and national burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia and its trends over time are scarce. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated global trends in, and prevalence of, benign prostatic hyperplasia and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia, in 21 regions and 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019. Methods: This study was conducted with GBD 2019 analytical and modelling strategies. Primary prevalence data came from claims from three countries and from hospital inpatient encounters from 45 locations. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR version 2.1, was used to estimate the age-specific, location-specific, and year-specific prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Age-standardised prevalence was calculated by the direct method using the GBD reference population. Years lived with disability (YLDs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia were estimated by multiplying the disability weight by the symptomatic proportion of the prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Because we did not estimate years of life lost associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) equalled YLDs. The final estimates were compared across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated as the 25th and 975th of 1000 ordered draws from a bootstrap distribution. Findings: Globally, there were 94·0 million (95% UI 73·2 to 118) prevalent cases of benign prostatic hyperplasia in 2019, compared with 51·1 million (43·1 to 69·3) cases in 2000. The age-standardised prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia was 2480 (1940 to 3090) per 100 000 people. Although the global number of prevalent cases increased by 70·5% (68·6 to 72·7) between 2000 and 2019, the global age-standardised prevalence remained stable (–0·770% [–1·56 to 0·0912]). The age-standardised prevalence in 2019 ranged from 6480 (5130 to 8080) per 100 000 in eastern Europe to 987 (732 to 1320) per 100 000 in north Africa and the Middle East. All five SDI quintiles observed an increase in the absolute DALY burden between 2000 and 2019. The most rapid increases in the absolute DALY burden were seen in the middle SDI quintile (94·7% [91·8 to 97·6]), the low-middle SDI quintile (77·3% [74·1 to 81·2]), and the low SDI quintile (77·7% [72·9 to 83·2]). Between 2000 and 2019, age-standardised DALY rates changed less, but the three lower SDI quintiles (low, low-middle, and middle) saw small increases, and the two higher SDI quintiles (high and high-middle SDI) saw small decreases. Interpretation: The absolute burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia is rising at an alarming rate in most of the world, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries that are currently undergoing rapid demographic and epidemiological changes. As more people are living longer worldwide, the absolute burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia is expected to continue to rise in the coming years, highlighting the importance of monitoring and planning for future health system strain. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Translation: For the Amharic translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Published
2022

2. The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Khanh Bao Tran, Justin J Lang, Kelly Compton, Rixing Xu, Alistair R Acheson, Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson, Jonathan M Kocarnik, Louise Penberthy, Amirali Aali, Qamar Abbas, Behzad Abbasi, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Ahmed Abdelwahab Abdelwahab, Gholamreza Abdoli, Hanan Abdulkadir Abdulkadir, Aidin Abedi, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Hassan Abidi, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Abdorrahim Absalan, Yonas Derso Abtew, Hiwa Abubaker Ali, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Basavaprabhu Achappa, Juan Manuel Acuna, Daniel Addison, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Miracle Ayomikun Adesina, Mohammad Adnan, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Shailesh M Advani, Sumia Afrin, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Manik Aggarwal, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Araz Ramazan Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Sohail Ahmad, Sepideh Ahmadi, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Wajeeha Aiman, Marjan Ajami, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Addis Aklilu, Maxwell Akonde, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Saleh Ali Alessy, Abdelazeem M Algammal, Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Yousef Alimohamadi, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Motasem Alkhayyat, Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri, Sami Almustanyir, Nivaldo Alonso, Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Rami H Hani Al-Rifai, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Ala'a B Al-Tammemi, Haya Altawalah, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Firehiwot Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi, Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Hubert Amu, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Robert Ancuceanu, Jason A Anderson, Yaregal Animut Animut, Amir Anoushiravani, Ali Arash Anoushirvani, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Benny Antony, Maxwell Hubert Antwi, Sumadi Lukman Anwar, Razique Anwer, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Olatunde Aremu, Ayele Mamo Argaw, Hany Ariffin, Timur Aripov, Muhammad Arshad, Al Artaman, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Armin Aryannejad, Malke Asaad, Mulusew A Asemahagn, Zatollah Asemi, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Tahira Ashraf, Reza Assadi, Mohammad Athar, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Sameh Attia, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Atalel Fentahun Awedew, Mamaru Ayenew Awoke, Tewachew Awoke, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Tegegn Mulatu Ayana, Solomon Shitu Ayen, Davood Azadi, Sina Azadnajafabad, Saber Azami-Aghdash, Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw, Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy, Amirhossein Azari Jafari, Hosein Azizi, Ahmed Y Y Azzam, Amirhesam Babajani, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D Badiye, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Nader Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Saeed Bahadory, Atif Amin Baig, Jennifer L Baker, Ahad Bakhtiari, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, Maciej Banach, Indrajit Banerjee, Mainak Bardhan, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Fabio Barra, Amadou Barrow, Nasir Z Bashir, Azadeh Bashiri, Saurav Basu, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Aeysha Begum, Alehegn Bekele Bekele, Alemayehu Sayih Belay, Melaku Ashagrie Belete, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Arielle Wilder Bell, Luis Belo, Habib Benzian, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Eduardo Bernabe, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Bharti Bhandari Bhandari, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja, Soumitra S Bhuyan, Sadia Bibi, Awraris Hailu Bilchut, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Antonio Biondi, Mesfin Geremaw Birega Birega, Habitu Eshetu Birhan, Tone Bjørge, Oleg Blyuss, Belay Boda Abule Bodicha, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Archith Boloor, Cristina Bosetti, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, Hermann Brenner, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Christina Maree Buchanan, Norma B Bulamu, Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira, Muhammad Hammad Butt, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Luis Alberto Cámera, Chao Cao, Yin Cao, Giulia Carreras, Márcia Carvalho, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Promit Ananyo Chakraborty, Periklis Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, Daniel Youngwhan Cho, William C S Cho, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Aaron J Cohen, Joao Conde, Sandra Cortés, Vera Marisa Costa, Natália Cruz-Martins, Garland T Culbreth, Omid Dadras, Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw, Saad M A Dahlawi, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad, Anna Danielewicz, An Thi Minh Dao, Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Saswati Das, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Elham Davtalab Esmaeili, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Sisay Abebe Debela, Azizallah Dehghan, Biniyam Demisse, Fitsum Wolde Demisse, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Afshin Derakhshani, Meseret Derbew Molla, Diriba Dereje, Kalkidan Solomon Deribe, Rupak Desai, Markos Desalegn Desalegn, Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn, Samuel Abebe A Dessalegni, Gashaw Dessie, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Nancy Diao, Daniel Diaz, Lankamo Ena Digesa, Shilpi Gupta Dixit, Saeid Doaei, Linh Phuong Doan, Paul Narh Doku, Deepa Dongarwar, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Tim Robert Driscoll, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Sareh Edalati, Fatemeh Eghbalian, Elham Ehsani-Chimeh, Ebrahim Eini, Michael Ekholuenetale, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Donatus U Ekwueme, Maha El Tantawi, Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy, Iffat Elbarazi, Hesham Elghazaly, Muhammed Elhadi, Waseem El-Huneidi, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Daniel Berhanie Enyew, Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar, Tegegne Eshetu, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Juan Espinosa-Montero, Farshid Etaee, Azin Etemadimanesh, Tahir Eyayu, Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu, Sayeh Ezzikouri, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Jawad Fares, Abbas Farmany, Umar Farooque, Hossein Farrokhpour, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Wafa Fatima, Hamed Fattahi, Ginenus Fekadu, Berhanu Elfu Feleke, Allegra Allegra Ferrari, Simone Ferrero, Lorenzo Ferro Desideri, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Roham Foroumadi, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Peter Andras Gaal, Mohamed M Gad, Muktar A Gadanya, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Nasrin Galehdar, Silvano Gallus, Tushar Garg, Mariana Gaspar Fonseca, Yosef Haile Gebremariam, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael, Yohannes Fikadu Geda, Yibeltal Yismaw Gela, Belete Negese Belete Gemeda, Melaku Getachew, Motuma Erena Getachew, Kazem Ghaffari, Mansour Ghafourifard, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Mohammad Ghasemi Nour, Fariba Ghassemi, Ajnish Ghimire, Nermin Ghith, Maryam Gholamalizadeh, Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq, Sherief Ghozy, Syed Amir Gilani, Paramjit Singh Gill, Themba G Ginindza, Abraham Tamirat T Gizaw, James C Glasbey, Justyna Godos, Amit Goel, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Mohamad Golitaleb, Giuseppe Gorini, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Giuseppe Grosso, Habtamu Alganeh Guadie, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Temesgen Worku Gudayu, Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Bhawna Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Mekdes Kondale Gurara, Alemu Guta, Parham Habibzadeh, Atlas Haddadi Avval, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Adel Hajj Ali, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Esam S Halboub, Aram Halimi, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Asif Hanif, Sanam Hariri, Netanja I Harlianto, Josep Maria Haro, Risky Kusuma Hartono, Ahmed I Hasaballah, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Seyedeh Melika Hashemi, Abbas M Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Khezar Hayat, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Zahra Heidarymeybodi, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa, Ramesh Holla, Marianne Holm, Nobuyuki Horita, Mohammad Hoseini, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain, Mohammad-Salar Hosseini, Ali Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Junjie Huang, Fernando N Hugo, Ayesha Humayun, Salman Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Kevin S Ikuta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Kaire Innos, Pooya Iranpour, Lalu Muhammad Irham, Md Shariful Islam, Rakibul M Islam, Farhad Islami, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Linda Merin J, Abhishek Jaiswal, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Mahsa Jalili, Shahram Jalilian, Elham Jamshidi, Sung-In Jang, Chinmay T Jani, Tahereh Javaheri, Umesh Umesh Jayarajah, Shubha Jayaram, Seyed Behzad Jazayeri, Rime Jebai, Bedru Jemal, Wonjeong Jeong, Ravi Prakash Jha, Har Ashish Jindal, Yetunde O John-Akinola, Jost B Jonas, Tamas Joo, Nitin Joseph, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Ali Kabir, Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi, Vidya Kadashetti, Farima Kahe, Pradnya Vishal Kakodkar, Laleh R Kalankesh, Leila R Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Vineet Kumar Kamal, Farin Kamangar, Ashwin Kamath, Tanuj Kanchan, Eswar Kandaswamy, Himal Kandel, HyeJung Kang, Girum Gebremeskel Kanno, Neeti Kapoor, Sitanshu Sekhar Kar, Shama D Karanth, Ibraheem M Karaye, André Karch, Amirali Karimi, Bekalu Getnet Kassa, Patrick DMC Katoto, Joonas H Kauppila, Harkiran Kaur, Abinet Gebremickael Kebede, Leila Keikavoosi-Arani, Gemechu Gemechu Kejela, Phillip M Kemp Bohan, Maryam Keramati, Mohammad Keykhaei, Himanshu Khajuria, Abbas Khan, Abdul Aziz Khan Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Moien AB Khan, Javad Khanali, Khaled Khatab, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Mohammad Amin Khazeei Tabari, Mehdi Khezeli, Mahmoud Khodadost, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Miloslav Klugar, Jitka Klugarová, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Pavel Kolkhir, Farzad Kompani, Parvaiz A Koul, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Nuworza Kugbey, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Akshay Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Narinder Kumar, Om P Kurmi, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Carlo La Vecchia, Arista Lahiri, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Judit Lám, Qing Lan, Iván Landires, Bagher Larijani, Savita Lasrado, Jerrald Lau, Paolo Lauriola, Caterina Ledda, Sang-woong Lee, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Yeong Yeh Lee, Yo Han Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, James Leigh, Elvynna Leong, Ming-Chieh Li, Stephen S Lim, Gang Liu, Jue Liu, Chun-Han Lo, Ayush Lohiya, Platon D Lopukhov, László Lorenzovici, Mojgan Lotfi, Joana A Loureiro, Raimundas Lunevicius, Farzan Madadizadeh, Ahmad R Mafi, Sameh Magdeldin, Soleiman Mahjoub, Ata Mahmoodpoor, Morteza Mahmoudi, Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh, Rashidul Alam Mahumud, Azeem Majeed, Jamal Majidpoor, Alaa Makki, Konstantinos Christos Makris, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Mohammad-Reza Malekpour, Reza Malekzadeh, Ahmad Azam Malik, Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi, Sneha Deepak Mallya, Mohammed A Mamun, Ana Laura Manda, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani, Santi Martini, Miquel Martorell, Sahar Masoudi, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Clara N Matei, Elezebeth Mathews, Manu Raj Mathur, Vasundhara Mathur, Martin McKee, Jitendra Kumar Meena, Khalid Mehmood, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Ravi Mehrotra, Addisu Melese, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, SIsay Derso Mengesha, Laverne G Mensah, Alexios-Fotios A Mentis, Andry Yasmid Mera Mera-Mamián, Tuomo J Meretoja, Mehari Woldemariam Merid, Amanual Getnet Mersha, Belsity Temesgen Meselu, Mahboobeh Meshkat, Tomislav Mestrovic, Junmei Miao Jonasson, Tomasz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michalek, Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena, Ted R Miller, Shabir Ahmad Mir, Seyed Kazem Mirinezhad, Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni, Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, Hamed Mirzaei, Hamid Reza Mirzaei, Abay Sisay Misganaw, Sanjeev Misra, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Arif Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Syam Mohan, Mohammad Mohseni, Nagabhishek Moka, Ali H Mokdad, Alex Molassiotis, Mariam Molokhia, Kaveh Momenzadeh, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Ute Mons, Ahmed Al Montasir, Fateme Montazeri, Arnulfo Montero, Mohammad Amin Moosavi, Abdolvahab Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Mostafa Moradi Sarabi, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Shane Douglas Morrison, Jakub Morze, Abbas Mosapour, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Haleh Mousavi Isfahani, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa, Sumaira Mubarik, Francesk Mulita, Daniel Munblit, Sandra B Munro, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Jonah Musa, Ashraf F Nabhan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Shankar Prasad Nagaraju, Gabriele Nagel, Mohammadreza Naghipour, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Aparna Ichalangod Narayana, Hasan Nassereldine, Zuhair S Natto, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Rawlance Ndejjo, Sabina Onyinye Nduaguba, Wogene Wogene Negash, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Kazem Nejati, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Huy Van Nguyen Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Nurulamin M Noor, Maryam Noori, Nafise Noroozi, Hasti Nouraei, Ali Nowroozi, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Onome Bright Oghenetega, Ropo Ebenezer Ogunsakin, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, In-Hwan Oh, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde, Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa, Emad Omer, Abidemi E Emmanuel Omonisi, Sokking Ong, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Hans Orru, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Abderrahim Oulhaj, Bilcha Oumer, Oluwatomi Funbi Owopetu, Babatunji Emmanuel Oyinloye, Mahesh P A, Alicia Padron-Monedero, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Babak Pakbin, Keyvan Pakshir, Reza Pakzad, Tamás Palicz, Adrian Pana, Anamika Pandey, Ashok Pandey, Suman Pant, Shahina Pardhan, Eun-Cheol Park, Eun-Kee Park, Seoyeon Park, Jay Patel, Siddhartha Pati, Rajan Paudel, Uttam Paudel, Mihaela Paun, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Minjin Peng, Jeevan Pereira, Renato B Pereira, Simone Perna, Navaraj Perumalsamy, Richard G Pestell, Raffaele Pezzani, Cristiano Piccinelli, Julian David Pillay, Zahra Zahid Piracha, Tobias Pischon, Maarten J Postma, Ashkan Pourabhari Langroudi, Akram Pourshams, Naeimeh Pourtaheri, Akila Prashant, Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan, Venkatraman Radhakrishnan, Mojtaba Raeisi, Ata Rafiee, Alireza Rafiei, Nasiru Raheem, Fakher Rahim, Md Obaidur Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Shayan Rahmani, Vahid Rahmanian, Nazanin Rajai, Aashish Rajesh, Pradhum Ram, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Juwel Rana, Kamal Ranabhat, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Chythra R Rao, Sowmya J Rao, Sina Rashedi, Amirfarzan Rashidi, Mahsa Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Reza Rawassizadeh, Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia, Ashfaq Ur Rehman, Inayat ur Rehman, Marissa B Reitsma, Andre M N Renzaho, Maryam Rezaei, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Nima Rezaei, Saeid Rezaei, Mohsen Rezaeian, Aziz Rezapour, Abanoub Riad, Reza Rikhtegar, Maria Rios-Blancas, Thomas J Roberts, Peter Rohloff, Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez, Gholamreza Roshandel, Godfrey M Rwegerera, Manjula S, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Bahar Saberzadeh-Ardestani, Siamak Sabour, Basema Saddik, Erfan Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Mohsen Safaei, Azam Safary, Maryam Sahebazzamani, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Harihar Sahoo, Mirza Rizwan Sajid, Hedayat Salari, Sana Salehi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Senthilkumar Sankararaman, Francesco Sanmarchi, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib, Arash Sarveazad, Fatemeh Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Nicolas Sayegh, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Michaël 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Melinda Gates Foundation, Kuwait University (Kuwait), Ministry of Higher Education (Malasia), Lega Italiana per la Lotta ai Tumori, Health Effects Institute (Estados Unidos), Unión Europea. Comisión Europea. European Research Council (ERC), Unión Europea. Comisión Europea. H2020, Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), African-German Network of Excellence in Science (AGNES), Federal Ministry of Education & Research (Alemania), Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, National Institute for Health Research (Reino Unido), National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development (Serbia), Sigrid Jusélius Foundation, Finnish Cancer Foundation, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (India), Xiamen University (Malasia), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (India), Panjab University (India), Sistema Nacional de Investigación (Panamá), Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (Panamá), Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan), Lung Foundation Australia, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust, UNSW Sydney (Australia), ICMR - National Institute of Epidemiology (India), University of Tasmania (Australia), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (Brasil), Coordenação de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brasil), Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (Irán), Ain Shams University (Egipto), International Center of Medical Sciences Research (Islamabad), National Institutes of Health (Estados Unidos), University of Oxford (Reino Unido), National Institute of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (Irán), Marga und Walter Boll - Stiftung, Ministero della Salute (Italia), IRCCS Materno Infantile Burlo Garofolo (Italia), King College London, Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance (India), Public Health, University of St Andrews. School of Medicine, and University of St Andrews. Population and Behavioural Science Division

Subjects
Male, DEATHS, DALY, cancer, risk factors, Medizin, systematic analysis, Global Health, Risk Assessment, Cancer prevention, Global Burden of Disease, RC0254, Risk-attributable cancer deaths, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, RA0421, Risk Factors, RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine, Quality-Adjusted Life Year, Neoplasms, cancer, Humans, Global Burden of Disease Study, UK, Medicine(all), MCC, RC0254 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology (including Cancer), Risk Factor, Smoking, COVID-19, 3rd-DAS, General Medicine, Disability-adjusted life-years, SOCIAL DETERMINANTS, Risk assessments, risk factor, Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, OBESITY, Cancer burden, Neoplasm, Female, LIFE-STYLE, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, HEALTH, RA, Human, RC
Abstract

Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. We are grateful to the surveillance systems, including cancer registries, that generated and shared observed cancer burden data. S M Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project. H Ariffin acknowledges support from the Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia (grant FRGS/1/2021/SKK0/UM/01/1). F Barra acknowledges support from Lega Italiana per la Lotta contro i Tumori - LILT - Bando 5 x 1000 anno 2019. L Belo and M Carvalho acknowledge the support from FCT in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of i4HB. A J Cohen was supported by the Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA, USA. J Conde acknowledges financial support from the European Research Council - ERC Starting Grant 848325. V M Costa acknowledges her grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. T C Ekundayo was supported by the African-German Network of Excellence in Science (AGNES), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (AvH). N Ghith acknowledges support from a grant from Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF16OC0021856). J C Glasbey is support by a Doctoral Research Fellowship from the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR300175). V K Gupta and V B Gupta acknowledge funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia. C Herteliu, A Pana, and M Ausloos acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. C Herteliu is also partially supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021. S Hussain was supported from Operational Programme Research, Development and Education–Project, Postdoc2MUNI (number CZ.02.2. 69/0.0/0.0/18_053/0016952). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through the grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J H Kauppila acknowledges research grants from Sigrid Jusélius Foundation and the Finnish Cancer Foundation. M N Khatib acknowledges support from Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (deemed-to-be-university). Y J Kim was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia [XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004]. S L Koulmane Laxminarayana acknowledges institutional assistance by Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. K Krishan is supported by the UGC Centre of Advanced Study (Phase II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. I Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). M-C Li was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (MOST 110-2314-B-003-001). G Liu acknowledges support from the CREATE Hope scientific fellowship from Lung Foundation Australia. J Liu acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation (72122001). J A Loureiro was supported by Scientific Employment Stimulus (FCT; CEECINST/00049/2018). E Mathews is supported by a Clinical and Public Health Early Career Fellowship (grant number IA/CPHE/17/1/503345) from the DBT India Alliance/Wellcome Trust Department of Biotechnology, India Alliance (2018–2023). T J Meretoja was supported by an unrestricted grant from Cancer Foundation Finland sr. S Mohammed acknowledges a fellowship grant from Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, outside the submitted work. M Molokhia is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Center at Guy’s and St Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust and King’s College London. L Monasta received support from the Italian Ministry of Health at the Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste - Italy (RC 34/2017). U Mons is supported by the Marga and Walter Boll Foundation, Kerpen, Germany. M A Moosavi acknowledges the financial support of National Institute of Genetics Engineering and Biotechnology (NIGEB). J Musa acknowledges support from the NIH/FICK43TW011416 for research-protected time for cervical cancer research and career development at University of Jos. V Nuñez-Samudio is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). O O Odukoya acknowledges support by the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health under the award number K43TW010704 for research-protected time. The content is solely the responsibility of all the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. A S Oguntade acknowledges funding by a doctoral scholarship from the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford (Oxford Population Health). J R Padubidri acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal for their constant support in research collaborations. R G Pestell acknowledges support from NIH grant W81XWH1810605 Breast Cancer Research, Breakthrough Grant R21 CA235139-01. Z Z Piracha acknowledges the International Center of Medical Sciences Research (ICMSR), Islamabad (44000), Pakistan. R A Radhakrishnan acknowledges support from Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance - IA/CPHI/18/1/503927. U Saeed acknowledges the International Center of Medical Sciences Research (ICMSR), Islamabad, Pakistan. A M Samy acknowledges the support from Ain Shams University and the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. F Sha was supported by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (grant number KQTD20190929172835662). H R Shahsavari acknowledges the Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS) Research Council. A Shetty acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal for all the academic support. D A S Silva acknowledges financing in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brazil (CAPES)—Finance Code 001 and D A S Silva is supported in part by CNPq-Brazil (309589/2021-5). L M L R Silva was supported by project CENTRO-04-3559-FSE-000162, Fundo Social Europeu (FSE). Am Singh is supported by the International Graduate Research Scholarship, University of Tasmania. R Suliankatchi Abdulkader acknowledges support from ICMR—National Institute of Epidemiology. B Unnikrishnan acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. H Xiao acknowledges support from the Public Health Sciences Division of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. X Xu is supported by the University of New South Wales (Australia) Scientia Program. C Yu was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 82173626) and Wuhan Medical Research Program of Joint Fund of Hubei Health Committee (grant number WJ2019H304). Sí

Published
2022

3. The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Elysia M Alvarez, Lisa M Force, Rixing Xu, Kelly Compton, Dan Lu, Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson, Jonathan M Kocarnik, James D Harvey, Alyssa Pennini, Frances E Dean, Weijia Fu, Martina T Vargas, Theresa H M Keegan, Hany Ariffin, Ronald D Barr, Yana Arturovna Erdomaeva, D Sanjeeva Gunasekera, Yetunde O John-Akinola, Tyler G Ketterl, Tezer Kutluk, Marcio Henrique Malogolowkin, Prashant Mathur, Venkatraman Radhakrishnan, Lynn Ann Gloeckler Ries, Carlos Rodriguez-Galindo, Garik Barisovich Sagoyan, Iyad Sultan, Behzad Abbasi, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Amir Abdoli, Haimanot Abebe, Aidin Abedi, Hassan Abidi, Hassan Abolhassani, Hiwa Abubaker Ali, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Basavaprabhu Achappa, Juan Manuel Acuna, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Oyelola A Adegboye, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Shailesh M Advani, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi, Bahman Ahadinezhad, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Sajjad Ahmad, Sepideh Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Yusra Ahmed Salih, Wajeeha Aiman, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Abdulhadi A AlAmodi, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Adugnaw Zeleke Alem, Dejene Tsegaye Alem, Yosef Alemayehu, Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Saqib Ali, Gianfranco Alicandro, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Motasem Alkhayyat, Sunitha Alluri, Nihad A Almasri, Sadeq Ali Al-Maweri, Sami Almustanyir, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Saeed Amini, Hubert Amu, Robert Ancuceanu, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Fereshteh Ansari, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Davood Anvari, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Ayele Mamo Argaw, Muhammad Arshad, Judie Arulappan, Armin Aryannejad, Zatollah Asemi, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad Reza Atashzar, Prince Atorkey, Alok Atreya, Sameh Attia, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Atalel Fentahun Awedew, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Alemu Degu Ayele, Solomon Shitu Ayen, Mohammed A Azab, Sina Azadnajafabad, Hiva Azami, Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy, Amirhossein Azari Jafari, Ghasem Azarian, Ahmed Y Azzam, Saeed Bahadory, Jianjun Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Jennifer L Baker, Maciej Banach, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Fabio Barra, Amadou Barrow, Huda Basaleem, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Masoud Behzadifar, Niguss Cherie Bekele, Rebuma Belete, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Arielle Wilder Bell, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Devidas S Bhagat, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Antonio Biondi, Setognal Birara, Tone Bjørge, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Archith Boloor, Dejana Braithwaite, Hermann Brenner, Norma B Bulamu, Katrin Burkart, Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Chao Cao, Yin Cao, Giulia Carreras, Ferrán Catalá-López, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Raja Chandra Chakinala, Promit Ananyo Chakraborty, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Prachi P Chavan, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Michael T Chung, Joao Conde, Vera Marisa Costa, Omar B Da'ar, Omid Dadras, Saad M A Dahlawi, Xiaochen Dai, Giovanni Damiani, Emanuele D'Amico, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad, Amira Hamed Darwish, Ahmad Daryani, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Sisay Abebe Debela, Takele Gezahegn G Demie, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Zeleke Geto Demissie, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Meseret Derbew Molla, Rupak Desai, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal, Meghnath Dhimal, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Mojtaba Didehdar, Mengistie Diress, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc Do, Saeid Doaei, Fariba Dorostkar, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Thomas M Drake, Michael Ekholuenetale, Iman El Sayed, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Hassan El-Abid, Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy, Iffat Elbarazi, Hala Rashad Elhabashy, Muhammed Elhadi, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Daniel Berhanie Enyew, Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Mohammed Faisaluddin, Jawad Fares, Umar Farooque, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Wafa Fatima, José Miguel P Ferreira de Oliveira, Simone Ferrero, Lorenzo Ferro Desideri, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, James L Fisher, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Peter Andras Gaal, Mohamed M Gad, Piyada Gaewkhiew, Silvano Gallus, Tushar Garg, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Belete Negese Belete Gemeda, Tamiru Getachew, Mansour Ghafourifard, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Fariba Ghassemi, Nermin Ghith, Ali Gholami, Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq, Syed Amir Gilani, Themba G Ginindza, Abraham Tamirat Gizaw, James C Glasbey, Amit Goel, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Giuseppe Gorini, Houman Goudarzi, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Ayman Grada, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra, Avirup Guha, Bhawna Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Rasool Haddadi, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Alemayehu Hailu, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Mitiku Teshome Hambisa, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Shafiul Haque, Sanam Hariri, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Seyedeh Melika Hashemi, Treska S Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Simon I Hay, Khezar Hayat, Sultan H Hebo, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Demisu Zenbaba Heyi, Kamal Hezam, Michael K Hole, Ramesh Holla, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain, Mohammad-Salar Hosseini, Mostafa Hosseini, Ali Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Mohamed Hsairi, Junjie Huang, Nawfal R Hussein, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka 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Foundation, NIH - National Cancer Institute (NCI) (Estados Unidos), Epidemiologie, and RS: NUTRIM - R3 - Respiratory & Age-related Health

Subjects
adolescent cancer, global burden of disease, epidemiology, Adult, Male, Adolescent, 3122 Cancers, UNITED-STATES, Disability-Adjusted Life Year, Adolescents, Socioeconomic Factor, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Risk Factors, WORLDWIDE, Neoplasms, Cause of Death, Prevalence, Humans, 1112 Oncology and Carcinogenesis, Oncology & Carcinogenesis, Mortality, Cancer burden analyses, Cancer, ACUTE LYMPHOBLASTIC-LEUKEMIA, disease, Global burden, OUTCOMES, CHILDHOOD-CANCER, Incidence, Risk Factor, the GBD 2019 methodology, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, GBD 2019 Adolescent Young Adult Cancer Collaborators, CARE, Cancer control efforts, Socioeconomic Factors, Oncology, Neoplasm, Female, Young adults, Human
Abstract

Funding: J A Loureiro acknowledges support from Base Funding UIDB/00511/2020 of the LEPABE funded by national funds through the FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC) and Scientific Employment Stimulus (FCT) [CEECINST/00049/2018]. Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15–39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15–39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11–1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000–425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15–39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5–65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8–57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9–15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6–14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9–25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9–3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4–98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute. publishersversion published

Published
2022

4. Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Avina Vongpradith, Sarah Brooke Sirota, Amanda Novotney, Christopher E Troeger, Matthew C Doxey, Rose G Bender, Jorge R Ledesma, Molly H Biehl, Samuel B Albertson, Joseph Jon Frostad, Katrin Burkart, Fiona B Bennitt, Jeff T Zhao, William M Gardner, Hailey Hagins, Dana Bryazka, Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez, Semagn Mekonnen Abate, Michael Abdelmasseh, Amir Abdoli, Gholamreza Abdoli, Aidin Abedi, Vida Abedi, Tadesse M Abegaz, Hassan Abidi, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Yonas Derso Abtew, Hiwa Abubaker Ali, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Kidist Adamu, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Mohammad Adnan, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Araz Ramazan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Ali Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadi, Haroon Ahmed, Jivan Qasim Ahmed, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Hanadi Al Hamad, Luciana Albano, Mamoon A Aldeyab, Bezatu Mengistie Alemu, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Abdelazeem M Algammal, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Musa Mohammed Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Yousef Alimohamadi, Vahid Alipour, Adel Al-Jumaily, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sami Almustanyir, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Rami H Hani Al-Rifai, Saif Aldeen S AlRyalat, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi, John H Amuasi, Dickson A Amugsi, Etsay Woldu Anbesu, Adnan Ansar, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Demelash Areda, Ayele Mamo Argaw, Zeleke Gebru Argaw, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Mulusew A Asemahagn, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Daniel Atlaw, Engi F Attia, Sameh Attia, Avinash Aujayeb, Tewachew Awoke, Tegegn Mulatu Ayana, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Sina Azadnajafabad, Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy, Samad Azari, Amirhossein Azari Jafari, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D Badiye, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Sara Bagherieh, Atif Amin Baig, Maciej Banach, Indrajit Banerjee, Mainak Bardhan, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Azadeh Bashiri, Quique Bassat, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Abate Bekele Belachew, Melaku Ashagrie Belete, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Parth Bhatt, Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Soumitra S Bhuyan, Ali Bijani, Saeid Bitaraf, Belay Boda Abule Bodicha, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Danilo Buonsenso, Muhammad Hammad Butt, Jiao Cai, Paulo Camargos, Luis Alberto Cámera, Promit Ananyo Chakraborty, Muluken Genetu Chanie, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Patrick R Ching, Sungchul Choi, Yuen Yu Chong, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Enayet Karim Chowdhury, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Natalie L Cobb, Aaron J Cohen, Natália Cruz-Martins, Omid Dadras, Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, An Thi Minh Dao, Sisay Abebe Debela, Biniyam Demisse, Fitsum Wolde Demisse, Solomon Demissie, Diriba Dereje, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Belay Desye, Sameer Dhingra, Nancy Diao, Daniel Diaz, Lankamo Ena Digesa, Linh Phuong Doan, Milad Dodangeh, Deepa Dongarwar, Fariba Dorostkar, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Eleonora Dubljanin, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Hisham Atan Edinur, Elham Ehsani-Chimeh, Ebrahim Eini, Michael Ekholuenetale, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Eman D El Desouky, Iman El Sayed, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Muhammed Elhadi, Ahmed Mahmoud Rabie Elkhapery, Amir Emami, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar, Farshid Etaee, Mohamad Ezati Asar, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Shahab Falahi, Aida Fallahzadeh, Anwar Faraj, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Ali Fatehizadeh, Pietro Ferrara, Allegra Allegra Ferrari, Getahun Fetensa, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Masoud Foroutan, Peter Andras Gaal, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Santosh Gaihre, Nasrin Galehdar, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Tushar Garg, Mesfin Damtew Gebrehiwot, Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael, Yibeltal Yismaw Gela, Belete Negese Belete Gemeda, Bradford D Gessner, Melaku Getachew, Asmare Getie, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Mohammad Ghasemi Nour, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Abdolmajid Gholizadeh, Rakesh Ghosh, Sherief Ghozy, Pouya Goleij, Mohamad Golitaleb, Giuseppe Gorini, Alessandra C Goulart, Girma Garedew Goyomsa, Habtamu Alganeh Guadie, Zewdie Gudisa, Rashid Abdi Guled, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Alemu Guta, Parham Habibzadeh, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Rabih Halwani, Samer Hamidi, Md Abdul Hannan, Mehdi Harorani, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Hamidreza Hasani, Abbas M Hassan, Shokoufeh Hassani, Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam, Hadi Hassankhani, Khezar Hayat, Behzad Heibati, Mohammad Heidari, Demisu Zenbaba Heyi, Kamal Hezam, Ramesh Holla, Sung Hwi Hong, Nobuyuki Horita, Mohammad-Salar Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh, Junjie Huang, Nawfal R Hussein, Ivo Iavicoli, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Kevin S Ikuta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Masao Iwagami, Jalil Jaafari, Elham Jamshidi, Sung-In Jang, Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani, Tahereh Javaheri, Fatemeh Javanmardi, Javad Javidnia, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Umesh Jayarajah, Shubha Jayaram, Alelign Tasew Jema, Wonjeong Jeong, Jost B Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Vaishali K, Zubair Kabir, Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi, Vidya Kadashetti, Laleh R Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Ashwin Kamath, Bhushan Dattatray Kamble, Himal Kandel, Tesfaye K Kanko, Ibraheem M Karaye, André Karch, Samad Karkhah, Bekalu Getnet Kassa, Patrick DMC Katoto, Harkiran Kaur, Rimple Jeet Kaur, Leila Keikavoosi-Arani, Mohammad Keykhaei, Yousef Saleh Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Imteyaz A Khan, Maseer Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Moien AB Khan, Yusra H Khan, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Mina Khosravifar, Jagdish Khubchandani, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Niranjan Kissoon, Luke D Knibbs, Sonali Kochhar, Farzad Kompani, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Om P Kurmi, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Judit Lám, Iván Landires, Caterina Ledda, Sang-woong Lee, Miriam Levi, Sonia Lewycka, Gang Liu, Wei Liu, Rakesh Lodha, László Lorenzovici, Mojgan Lotfi, Joana A Loureiro, Farzan Madadizadeh, Ata Mahmoodpoor, Razzagh Mahmoudi, Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh, Jamal Majidpoor, Alaa Makki, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Ahmad Azam Malik, Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi, Yosef Manla, Clara N Matei, Alexander G Mathioudakis, Richard James Maude, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Addisu Melese, Ziad A Memish, Oliver Mendoza-Cano, Alexios-Fotios A Mentis, Tuomo J Meretoja, Mehari Woldemariam Merid, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá, Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Shabir Ahmad Mir, Reza Mirfakhraie, Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni, Agha Zeeshan Mirza, Moonis Mirza, Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, Abay Sisay Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Arif Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Syam Mohan, Mohammad Mohseni, Nagabhishek Moka, Ali H Mokdad, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Md Moniruzzaman, Fateme Montazeri, Catrin E Moore, Abdolvahab Moradi, Lidia Morawska, Jonathan F Mosser, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Majid Motaghinejad, Haleh Mousavi Isfahani, Seyed Ali Mousavi-Aghdas, Sumaira Mubarik, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Ghulam Mustafa, Sanjeev Nair, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Houshang Najafi, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Zuhair S Natto, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Huy Van Nguyen Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Antonio Tolentino Nogueira de Sá, Hasti Nouraei, Ali Nowroozi, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Chimedsuren Ochir, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Andrew T Olagunju, Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa, Ahmed Omar Bali, Emad Omer, Eyal Oren, Erika Ota, Nikita Otstavnov, Abderrahim Oulhaj, Mahesh P A, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Keyvan Pakshir, Reza Pakzad, Tamás Palicz, Anamika Pandey, Suman Pant, Shahina Pardhan, Eun-Cheol Park, Eun-Kee Park, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Rajan Paudel, Shrikant Pawar, Minjin Peng, Gavin Pereira, Simone Perna, Navaraj Perumalsamy, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, David M Pigott, Zahra Zahid Piracha, Vivek Podder, Roman V Polibin, Maarten J Postma, Hamid Pourasghari, Naeimeh Pourtaheri, Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir, Mathieu Raad, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Saber Raeghi, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Mehran Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Azizur Rahman, Md Obaidur Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Vahid Rahmanian, Pradhum Ram, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Juwel Rana, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Usha Rani, Sowmya J Rao, Sina Rashedi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Azad Rasul, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, 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Subjects
Adult, Male, Global Health, Time, Global Burden of Disease, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Risk Factors, RA0421, RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine, Humans, Ambient air-quality, Child, Respiratory Tract Infections, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, MCC, Sex Characteristics, Malnutrition, Pyridinolcarbamate, Bayes Theorem, 3rd-DAS, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, Infectious Diseases, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Child, Preschool, Female, Particulate Matter, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Covid-19, LRI
Abstract

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Publisher PDF

Published
2022

5. Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Author

Roth, Gregory A, Mensah, George A, Johnson, Catherine O, Addolorato, Giovanni, Ammirati, Enrico, Baddour, Larry M, Barengo, Noël C, Beaton, Andrea Z, Benjamin, Emelia J, Benziger, Catherine P, Bonny, Aimé, Brauer, Michael, Brodmann, Marianne, Cahill, Thomas J, Carapetis, Jonathan, Catapano, Alberico L, Chugh, Sumeet S, Cooper, Leslie T, Coresh, Josef, Criqui, Michael, DeCleene, Nicole, Eagle, Kim A, Emmons-Bell, Sophia, Feigin, Valery L, Fernández-Solà, Joaquim, Fowkes, Gerry, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Grundy, Scott M, He, Feng J, Howard, George, Hu, Frank, Inker, Lesley, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Kassebaum, Nicholas, Koroshetz, Walter, Lavie, Carl, Lloyd-Jones, Donald, Lu, Hong S, Mirijello, Antonio, Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw, Mokdad, Ali, Moran, Andrew E, Muntner, Paul, Narula, Jagat, Neal, Bruce, Ntsekhe, Mpiko, Moraes de Oliveira, Glaucia, Otto, Catherine, Owolabi, Mayowa, Pratt, Michael, Rajagopalan, Sanjay, Reitsma, Marissa, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P, Rigotti, Nancy, Rodgers, Anthony, Sable, Craig, Shakil, Saate, Sliwa-Hahnle, Karen, Stark, Benjamin, Sundström, Johan, Timpel, Patrick, Tleyjeh, Imad M, Valgimigli, Marco, Vos, Theo, Whelton, Paul K, Yacoub, Magdi, Zuhlke, Liesl, Murray, Christopher, Fuster, Valentin, GBD-NHLBI-JACC Global, Burden of, Cardiovascular Diseases, Writing Group, Gregory A, Roth George, A Mensah, Catherine O, Johnson, Giovanni, Addolorato, Enrico, Ammirati, Larry M, Baddour Noel, C Barengo, Andrea, Beaton, Emelia J, Benjamin Catherine, P Benziger, Aime, Bonny, Michael, Brauer, Marianne, Brodmann, Thomas J, Cahill Jonathan, R Carapetis, Alberico L, Catapano, Sumeet, Chugh, Leslie T, Cooper, Josef, Coresh, Michael H, Criqui Nicole, K DeCleene, Kim A, Eagle, Sophia, Emmons-Bell, Valery L, Feigin, Joaquim, Fernández-Sola, F Gerry, R Fowkes, Emmanuela, Gakidou, Scott M, Grundy Feng, J He, George, Howard, Frank, Hu, Lesley, Inker, Ganesan, Karthikeyan, Nicholas J, Kassebaum Walter, J Koroshetz, Carl, Lavie, Donald, Lloyd-Jones, Hong S, Antonio, 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Subjects
cardiovascular disease, global health, health policy, population health
Abstract

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Published
2020

6. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Mohsen Naghavi, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Irena Ilic, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Hubert Amu, Jalil Jaafari, Walter Mendoza, Yanzhong Wang, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Mahesh P A, Afshin Maleki, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Akila Prashant, Jessica Y Islam, Ali H. Mokdad, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Roman Shrestha, Muhammad Naveed, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Santi Martini, Reza Rawassizadeh, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Tudorel Andrei, Jason A. Anderson, Martin McKee, Iffat Elbarazi, Golnaz Heidari, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Soewarta Kosen, Davood Anvari, Randah R. Hamadeh, G. K. Mini, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Farhad Islami, Yasir Waheed, Fahad Alanezi, Maciej Banach, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Ismaeel Yunusa, Suresh Mehata, Tarun Gupta, Mavra A Riaz, Derrick A Bennett, Nithin Kumar, Ali Soroush, Kurt Straif, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Avirup Guha, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Muhammed Shahriar Zaman, Arief Hargono, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Adam E. Berman, Giulia Carreras, Ali Bijani, Christoph Nowak, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Aziz Sheikh, Kamal Hezam, Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Rahman Shiri, Ashok Pandey, Ramesh Holla, Gyu Ri Kim, Aidin Abedi, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Andem Effiong, Samad Azari, Bhaskar Thakur, Mohsen Mazidi, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Prashant Mathur, Bay Vo, Robert Ancuceanu, Eun-Kee Park, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Thomas Hsiao, Richard G Pestell, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Doo Woong Lee, Bayew Kelkay, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Hualiang Lin, Mohsen Bayati, Florian Fischer, Wei Liu, Stefan Stortecky, Javad Nazari, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Nitish Naik, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Rajat Gupta, Rakhi Dandona, Hermann Brenner, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Yuichiro Yano, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Samath D Dharmaratne, Constantine I. Vardavas, Gabriela Fernanda Gil, Azeem Majeed, Akram Pourshams, Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Juan Sanabria, Iván Landires, Parkes J Kendrick, Dinh-Toi Chu, Asma Tahir Awan, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Siddharudha Shivalli, Omid Shafaat, Shankar Prasad Nagaraju, Manu Raj Mathur, Rachel L Updike, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan, Ryan David Kennedy, Alessandra Lugo, Olalekan A. Uthman, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Jiregna Darega Gela, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Bedanta Roy, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Jalal Arabloo, Milena Ilic, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Yo Han Lee, Mohammed Shannawaz, Mohammad Ali Moni, Valery L. Feigin, Himal Kandel, Lalit Dandona, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Jasvinder A. Singh, Till Bärnighausen, Neeraj Bhala, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Borhan Mansouri, Narayana Manjunatha, Giuseppe Gorini, Saif Ullah, Sheikh M. Alif, Giang Thu Vu, Ai Koyanagi, Mahaveer Golechha, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Sumaira Mubarik, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Bach Xuan Tran, Sorin Hostiuc, Catherine P. Benziger, Ritesh G. Menezes, Leonardo Roever, Xiaochen Dai, Meghnath Dhimal, Medhat Farwati, Chenwen Zhong, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, G Anil Kumar, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Simiao Chen, Zubair Kabir, Meseret Derbew Molla, Tilahun Ali, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Negussie Boti Sidemo, Monika Sawhney, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Vin Gupta, Mona Pathak, Lorenzo Monasta, Andrew T Olagunju, Nermin Ghith, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Virendra Singh, Takahiro Tabuchi, Gholamreza Roshandel, Andre R. Brunoni, Hayley D. Tymeson, Madhur Verma, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Adrian Pana, Isabela M. Benseñor, Abdullah Al Mamun, Jianrong Zhang, Hai Quang Pham, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sung-In Jang, Vinay Nangia, Luca Ronfani, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Dhirendra N Sinha, Josip Car, Sohail Ahmad, Rekha Thapar, Salman Rawaf, Joanna L Whisnant, Sanjay Basu, Abdallah M. Samy, Michal Grivna, Zahid A Butt, Abera Getachew Obsa, Mahdi Nalini, Ted R. Miller, Sanjeev Misra, Utsav Parekh, Budi Aji, Saeed Amini, João Pedro Silva, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Demosthenes B. Panagiotakos, Baye Dagnew, Yousef Khader, Atif Amin Baig, Habib Benzian, Keivan Ahmadi, Marco Vacante, Brijesh Sathian, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Savita Lasrado, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Darshan B B, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Yonas Akalu, Irmina Maria Michalek, Simone Vidale, Getie Lake Aynalem, Rosa A. S. Couto, Yigizie Yeshaw, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Pradhum Ram, Shrikant Pawar, Kevin Welding, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Luisa Sorio Flor, Priya Rathi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, K M Shivakumar, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Om P Kurmi, Nataliya Foigt, André Karch, Marina Pinheiro, Basema Saddik, Paschalis Steiropoulos, Chuanhua Yu, Graeme J. Hankey, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Ramaiah Itumalla, Befikadu Legesse Wubishet, Vera Marisa Costa, Shanshan Li, Ambrish Singh, Yuming Guo, Reza Malekzadeh, Nikha Bhardwaj, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Maryam Zamanian, Onyema greg Chido-Amajuoyi, Ibtihal Fadhil, Sabina O Nduaguba, Turki Alanzi, Eun-Cheol Park, Nicholas Arian, Salah Eddin Karimi, Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad, Minale Tareke, Paramjit Gill, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Haroon Ahmed, Irina Filip, Juwel Rana, Aziz Rezapour, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Ashish Badiye, Kewal Krishan, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Masood Ali Shaikh, Tanuj Kanchan, Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur, Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh, Thomas R. Hird, Yousef Mohammad, Soraya Siabani, Falk Schwendicke, Ziyad Al-Aly, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Mika Kivimäki, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, Zabihollah Yousefi, Neeti Kapoor, Syed Mahboob Shah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Mika Shigematsu, Ben Lacey, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Amir Radfar, Lemma Getacher, Sameer Vali Gopalani, David Laith Rawaf, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Salime Goharinezhad, Ambuj Roy, Ruth W Kimokoti, Nuworza Kugbey, Getinet Ayano, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Benny Antony, Katrin Burkart, Christopher J L Murray, Khalid F. AlHabib, Mariam Molokhia, Mansour Ghafourifard, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, Shailesh Advani, Kiomars Sharafi, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, E S Abhilash, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Sana Salehi, Dan J. Stein, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Mahmoud A. Alomari, Kawkab Shishani, Dejana Braithwaite, Jung-Chen Chang, Rajeev Gupta, Giovanni Damiani, Maha El Tantawi, Maria Sofia Sofia Cattaruzza, Amir Abdoli, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Rakibul M Islam, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi, Victor Aboyans, Ganesh Kumar Saya, Silvano Gallus, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Vardhmaan Jain, Masoud Foroutan, Janni Leung, Mohammad Abdollahi, Mohammed Zewdu Yimmer, Vahid Alipour, Wondwossen Niguse Asmare, Ravi Prakash Jha, Gerhard Sulo, Brigid Unim, Sheng-Chia Chung, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Hamed Mirzaei, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, In-Hwan Oh, Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir, Oladimeji Adebayo, Farshad Farzadfar, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Shafiu Mohammed, Johan Sundström, Ali Kabir, Paolo Lauriola, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Sadia Bibi, Bartosz Miazgowski, Erin C Mullany, Keyvan Pakshir, Srikanta Banerjee, Mowafa Househ, Mohamed M. Gad, Leila R Kalankesh, Mikk Jürisson, Ismail Tareque, Albertino Damasceno, Musliu Adetola Tolani, Andrea Werdecker, Shane D. Morrison, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Marcel Ausloos, Monika Arora, Marissa B Reitsma, Filippos Filippidis, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Antonio Biondi, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Junjie Huang, Mohammad Mahdi Zamani, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Emmanuela Gakidou, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Shubha Jayaram, Hiroyasu Iso, Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme, Molly R Nixon, Rachel Feldman, Liliana G Ciobanu, Kristina Edvardsson, Claudiu Herteliu, Andreea Mirica, Kindie Mitiku Kebede, Department of Public Health, Collaborators, GBD 2019 Chewing Tobacco, and Lacey, B

Subjects
Male, Health Status, Smoking Prevention, DETERMINANTS, Global Health, 01 natural sciences, Global Burden of Disease, SMOKELESS TOBACCO, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, Global health, Prevalence, 030212 general & internal medicine, 610 Medicine & health, RISK, High prevalence, WOMEN, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Articles, Middle Aged, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, Chewing tobacco, Smokeless tobacco, Population Surveillance, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Burden of disease, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Tobacco, Smokeless, Adolescent, WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, VALIDATION, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, Age Distribution, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Environmental health, medicine, Humans, 0101 mathematics, Sex Distribution, Chewing tobacco, Prevalence, Global Burden, Smokeless tobacco, business.industry, Public health, Smoking Tobacco, 010102 general mathematics, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Global Burden, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, STATES, Socioeconomic Factors, Smoking Cessation, business
Abstract

Interpretation Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Findings In 2019, 273 center dot 9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258 center dot 5 to 290 center dot 9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4 center dot 72% (4 center dot 46 to 5 center dot 01). 228 center dot 2 million (213 center dot 6 to 244 center dot 7; 83 center dot 29% [82 center dot 15 to 84 center dot 42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global agestandardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1 center dot 21% [-1 center dot 26 to -1 center dot 16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0 center dot 46% [0 center dot 13 to 0 center dot 79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0 center dot 94% [-1 center dot 72 to -0 center dot 14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Summary Background Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. Findings In 2019, 273 & middot;9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258 & middot;5 to 290 & middot;9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4 & middot;72% (4 & middot;46 to 5 & middot;01). 228 & middot;2 million (213 & middot;6 to 244 & middot;7; 83 & middot;29% [82 & middot;15 to 84 & middot;42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1 & middot;21% [-1 & middot;26 to -1 & middot;16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0 & middot;46% [0 & middot;13 to 0 & middot;79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0 & middot;94% [-1 & middot;72 to -0 & middot;14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Interpretation Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00065-7

Published
2021

7. Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Akram Pourshams, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Alberto L. García-Basteiro, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Patrick D. M. C. Katoto, Daiane Borges Machado, Alireza Rafiei, Aziz Rezapour, Khaled Khatab, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Fatemeh Javanmardi, Asrat Arja, Asif Hanif, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Min Seo Kim, Tomislav Mestrovic, Razique Anwer, Gulrez Shah Azhar, Milena Ilic, Jost B. Jonas, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Fakher Rahim, Christopher J L Murray, Molly H Biehl, Hesam Alizade, Souranshu Chatterjee, Jalal Arabloo, Mariam Molokhia, Sachin R Atre, Maciej Banach, Ashwin Kamath, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Irina Filip, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Robert Reiner, Shrikant Pawar, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Vardhmaan Jain, Shafiu Mohammed, Benn Sartorius, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Harapan Harapan, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Tahvi Frank, Yasir Waheed, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Jorge R. Ledesma, Yosef Alemayehu, Sajjad Ahmad, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Khezar Hayat, Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan, Ramesh Holla, Atif Amin Baig, Azeem Majeed, Darshan B B, Catherine M. Antony, Allen Seylani, Avinash Kumar, Alimuddin Zumla, Irena Ilic, Sofia Androudi, Liaqat Ali, Rafael Lozano, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Sanjay M Pattanshetty, Bach Xuan Tran, Eduarda Fernandes, Marissa B Reitsma, Ramaiah Itumalla, Catrin E. Moore, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Daniel Diaz, Mohsen Naghavi, R V Polibin, Nithin Kumar, Archith Boloor, Norberto Perico, Vahit Yigit, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar, Veer Bala Gupta, Nima Rezaei, Arief Hargono, Maarten J. Postma, Jitendra Singh, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Sapna Gupta, Omid Dadras, Takahiro Tabuchi, Sanjeev Misra, Salman Rawaf, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Omid Shafaat, Florian Fischer, Satish Saroshe, Simon I. Hay, Mosiur Rahman, Mohammad Ali Moni, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Jalil Jaafari, Walter Mendoza, Sepideh Ahmadi, Deepak Madi, Alexander Kwarteng, Omid Rezahosseini, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Hassan Mehmood Lak, Iván Landires, Mahesh P A, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Hayimro Edemealem Merie, Himanshu Khajuria, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Magdalene K. Walters, Ali H. Mokdad, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Avina Vongpradith, Mehrnoosh Samaei, Shubha Jayaram, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Giang Thu Vu, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Adnan Kisa, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Danilo Buonsenso, Nitin Joseph, G Anil Kumar, Rekha Thapar, Sanjeev Nair, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Joanna L Whisnant, Amanual Getnet Mersha, Savita Lasrado, Pintu Paul, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Mowafa Househ, Vivek Gupta, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Sanjay Basu, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Saira Afzal, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Akine Eshete Abosetugn, Jennifer M. Ross, Ai Koyanagi, Tushar Garg, Chythra R Rao, Sezer Kisa, Yigizie Yeshaw, Paschalis Steiropoulos, Brijesh Sathian, Zemenu Tamir, Amene Abebe Kerbo, Christine Lin, Dana Bryazka, Jason A. Anderson, Majid Pirestani, Austin Carter, Chuanhua Yu, Berhan Tsegaye, Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang, Mareli M Claassens, Hmwe H Kyu, Lorenzo Ferro Desideri, Akila Prashant, Smriti Sinha, Linh Phuong Doan, Befikadu Legesse Wubishet, Fabio Barra, Rovshan Khalilov, Joshua A. Salomon, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Imad I. Tleyjeh, David Laith Rawaf, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Kamal Hezam, Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur, Nasir Salam, Wei-Chen Lee, Stephen S Lim, Bay Vo, Mahaveer Golechha, K. M. Saif-Ur-Rahman, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Muhammed Elhadi, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Boris Bikbov, Addis Aklilu, Ritesh G. Menezes, Amare Belachew Dagnew, Ravi Prakash Jha, Tanuj Kanchan, Siamak Sabour, Theo Vos, Amir Radfar, Amir Emami, João Pedro Silva, Uzma Belgaumi, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad, Ahmed Al Montasir, Oladimeji Adebayo, Rabia Hussain, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Suma Nair, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Hanadi Al Hamad, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Farahnaz Joukar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Farshad Farzadfar, Hadi Hassankhani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Himal Kandel, Susan M Sawyer, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Zahid A Butt, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Belay Tessema, Nikha Bhardwaj, Hossein Samadi Kafil, Kiomars Sharafi, Siyan Yi, Jianing Ma, Denis O Roshchin, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Jagdish Khubchandani, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Shymaa Enany, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Andrew T Olagunju, Parkes J Kendrick, Amador Goodridge, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Mulusew A Asemahagn, Saeed Amini, Ziad A. Memish, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Ali Bijani, Nour Mheidly, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Abdallah M. Samy, Mahfuzar Rahman, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Abdullah T Khoja, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Samer Hamidi, Javad Nazari, Ramakrishnan Parthasarathi, Lalit Dandona, Molly R Nixon, Parvaiz A Koul, Mika Shigematsu, Gbenga A. Kayode, Rachel Feldman, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Mesfin Agachew Woldekidan, Deepa Jahagirdar, Kate E. LeGrand, Yusra Ahmed Salih, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Xuefeng Liu, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Christian Garcia-Calavaro, Dinh-Toi Chu, Mihaela Hostiuc, Yohannes Tekalegn, Rajan Paudel, Prasanna Mithra, Narinder Kumar, Masood Ali Shaikh, Zubair Kabir, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Masoud Foroutan, Bogdan Oancea, Anayat Ullah, Saurabh Mehta, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Soewarta Kosen, Vahid Alipour, Tarik A. Rashid, Melese Abate Reta, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Emilie R Maddison, Mpiko Ntsekhe, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Amadou Barrow, Ismaeel Yunusa, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Hassan Abolhassani, Ahmad Azam Malik, Xiaochen Dai, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Eyal Oren, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie, Kewal Krishan, Ranjitha S Shetty, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Jae Il Shin, Shafiul Haque, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Sahar Eftekharzadeh, Bhawna Gupta, Platon D. Lopukhov, Abdiwahab Hashi, Amanda Novotney, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Shoaib Hassan, Rakhi Dandona, Jaykaran Charan, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), and Collaborators, GBD 2019 Tuberculosis

Subjects
Male, PNEUMONIA, COUNTRIES, Tuberculosis, Population, HIV Infections, CHILDREN, Genders, Mortalities, Global Health, DIAGNOSIS, Microbiology, Global Burden of Disease, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), Risk Factors, 1108 Medical Microbiology, Sex differences, INFECTION, medicine, Global health, Humans, education, Sex Characteristics, education.field_of_study, Global disease burdens, business.industry, Mortality rate, GBD 2019 Tuberculosis Collaborators, HIV, Bayes Theorem, 1103 Clinical Sciences, DIABETES-MELLITUS, medicine.disease, Verbal autopsy, Tuberculosis treatment, PREVALENCE, Infectious Diseases, Attributable risk, Coinfection, Female, INJURIES, GENDER, HEALTH, business, Demography
Abstract

Background Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2021

8. Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Author

Gregory A. Roth, George A. Mensah, Catherine O. Johnson, Giovanni Addolorato, Enrico Ammirati, Larry M. Baddour, Noël C. Barengo, Andrea Z. Beaton, Emelia J. Benjamin, Catherine P. Benziger, Aimé Bonny, Michael Brauer, Marianne Brodmann, Thomas J. Cahill, Jonathan Carapetis, Alberico L. Catapano, Sumeet S. Chugh, Leslie T. Cooper, Josef Coresh, Michael Criqui, Nicole DeCleene, Kim A. Eagle, Sophia Emmons-Bell, Valery L. Feigin, Joaquim Fernández-Solà, Gerry Fowkes, Emmanuela Gakidou, Scott M. Grundy, Feng J. He, George Howard, Frank Hu, Lesley Inker, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Nicholas Kassebaum, Walter Koroshetz, Carl Lavie, Donald Lloyd-Jones, Hong S. Lu, Antonio Mirijello, Awoke Misganaw Temesgen, Ali Mokdad, Andrew E. Moran, Paul Muntner, Jagat Narula, Bruce Neal, Mpiko Ntsekhe, Glaucia Moraes de Oliveira, Catherine Otto, Mayowa Owolabi, Michael Pratt, Sanjay Rajagopalan, Marissa Reitsma, Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro, Nancy Rigotti, Anthony Rodgers, Craig Sable, Saate Shakil, Karen Sliwa-Hahnle, Benjamin Stark, Johan Sundström, Patrick Timpel, Imad M. Tleyjeh, Marco Valgimigli, Theo Vos, Paul K. Whelton, Magdi Yacoub, Liesl Zuhlke, Christopher Murray, Valentin Fuster, Noel C. Barengo, Andrea Beaton, Aime Bonny, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Sumeet Chugh, Michael H. Criqui, Nicole K. DeCleene, Joaquim Fernández-Sola, F. Gerry R. Fowkes, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Walter J. Koroshetz, Awoke T. Misganaw, Ali H. Mokdad, Gláucia M.M. Oliveira, Catherine M. Otto, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Marissa B. Reitsma, Nancy A. Rigotti, Craig A. Sable, Saate S. Shakil, Karen Sliwa, Benjamin A. Stark, Imad I. Tleyjeh, Liesl J. Zuhlke, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Alireza Abdi, Aidin Abedi, Victor Aboyans, Woldu A. Abrha, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Abdelrahman I. Abushouk, Dilaram Acharya, Tim Adair, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Zanfina Ademi, Shailesh M. Advani, Khashayar Afshari, Ashkan Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Pradyumna Agasthi, Sohail Ahmad, Sepideh Ahmadi, Muktar B. Ahmed, Budi Aji, Yonas Akalu, Wuraola Akande-Sholabi, Addis Aklilu, Chisom J. Akunna, Fares Alahdab, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Khalid F. Alhabib, Sheikh M. Alif, Vahid Alipour, Syed M. Aljunid, François Alla, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Sami Almustanyir, Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi, Adeladza K. Amegah, Saeed Amini, Arya Aminorroaya, Hubert Amu, Dickson A. Amugsi, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Tudorel Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Zelalem A. Anteneh, Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo, Benny Antony, Razique Anwer, Lambert T. Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Johan Ärnlöv, Kurnia D. Artanti, Zerihun Ataro, Marcel Ausloos, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Asma T. Awan, Mamaru A. Awoke, Henok T. Ayele, Muluken A. Ayza, Samad Azari, Darshan B. B, Nafiseh Baheiraei, Atif A. Baig, Ahad Bakhtiari, Maciej Banach, Palash C. Banik, Emerson A. Baptista, Miguel A. Barboza, Lingkan Barua, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Yannick Béjot, Derrick A. Bennett, Isabela M. Bensenor, Adam E. Berman, Yihienew M. Bezabih, Akshaya S. Bhagavathula, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Mulugeta M. Birhanu, Archith Boloor, Luisa C. Brant, Hermann Brenner, Nikolay I. Briko, Zahid A. Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Leah E. Cahill, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Luis A. Cámera, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Carlos Cantu-Brito, Josip Car, Juan J. Carrero, Felix Carvalho, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Simiao Chen, Ken L. Chin, Jee-Young J. Choi, Dinh-Toi Chu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Massimo Cirillo, Sean Coffey, Sara Conti, Vera M. Costa, David K. Cundiff, Omid Dadras, Baye Dagnew, Xiaochen Dai, Albertino A.M. Damasceno, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Kairat Davletov, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Fernando P. De la Hoz, Jan-Walter De Neve, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Meseret Derbew Molla, Behailu T. Derseh, Rupak Desai, Günther Deuschl, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Raja Ram Dhungana, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Daniel Diaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Klara Dokova, Abdel Douiri, Bruce B. Duncan, Andre R. Duraes, Arielle W. Eagan, Sanam Ebtehaj, Aziz Eftekhari, Sahar Eftekharzadeh, Michael Ekholuenetale, Nevine El Nahas, Islam Y. Elgendy, Muhammed Elhadi, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Sadaf Esteghamati, Atkilt E. Etisso, Oghenowede Eyawo, Ibtihal Fadhil, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Pawan S. Faris, Medhat Farwati, Farshad Farzadfar, Eduarda Fernandes, Carlota Fernandez Prendes, Pietro Ferrara, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, David Flood, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M. Gad, Shilpa Gaidhane, Morsaleh Ganji, Jalaj Garg, Abadi K. Gebre, Birhan G. Gebregiorgis, Kidane Z. Gebregzabiher, Gebreamlak G. Gebremeskel, Lemma Getacher, Abera Getachew Obsa, Alireza Ghajar, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Nermin Ghith, Simona Giampaoli, Syed Amir Gilani, Paramjit S. Gill, Richard F. Gillum, Ekaterina V. Glushkova, Elena V. Gnedovskaya, Mahaveer Golechha, Kebebe B. Gonfa, Amir Hossein Goudarzian, Alessandra C. Goulart, Jenny S. Guadamuz, Avirup Guha, Yuming Guo, Rajeev Gupta, Vladimir Hachinski, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Teklehaimanot G. Haile, Randah R. Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Arief Hargono, Risky K. Hartono, Maryam Hashemian, Abdiwahab Hashi, Shoaib Hassan, Hamid Y. Hassen, Rasmus J. Havmoeller, Simon I. Hay, Khezar Hayat, Golnaz Heidari, Claudiu Herteliu, Ramesh Holla, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Junjie Huang, Ayesha Humayun, Ivo Iavicoli, Charles U. Ibeneme, Segun E. Ibitoye, Olayinka S. Ilesanmi, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Ilic, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina N. Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rakibul M. Islam, Hiroyasu Iso, Masao Iwagami, Vardhmaan Jain, Tahereh Javaheri, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Ranil Jayawardena, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi P. Jha, Jost B. Jonas, Jitendra Jonnagaddala, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek J. Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Ali Kabir, Tanvir Kahlon, Rizwan Kalani, Rohollah Kalhor, Ashwin Kamath, Ibrahim Kamel, Himal Kandel, Amit Kandel, André Karch, Ayele Semachew Kasa, Patrick D.M.C. Katoto, Gbenga A. Kayode, Yousef S. Khader, Mohammad Khammarnia, Muhammad S. Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Maseer Khan, Ejaz A. Khan, Khaled Khatab, Gulam M.A. Kibria, Yun Jin Kim, Gyu Ri Kim, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Sezer Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Mika Kivimäki, Dhaval Kolte, Ali Koolivand, Vladimir A. Korshunov, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Vaman Kulkarni, G. Anil Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Om P. Kurmi, Dian Kusuma, Gene F. Kwan, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Tea Lallukka, Qing Lan, Savita Lasrado, Zohra S. Lassi, Paolo Lauriola, Wayne R. Lawrence, Avula Laxmaiah, Kate E. LeGrand, Ming-Chieh Li, Bingyu Li, Shanshan Li, Stephen S. Lim, Lee-Ling Lim, Hualiang Lin, Ziqiang Lin, Ro-Ting Lin, Xuefeng Liu, Alan D. Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Alessandra Lugo, Nirmal K. M, Fabiana Madotto, Morteza Mahmoudi, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Ahmad A. Malik, Abdullah A. Mamun, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Lorenzo G. Mantovani, Santi Martini, Manu R. Mathur, Giampiero Mazzaglia, Suresh Mehata, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Toni Meier, Ritesh G. Menezes, Atte Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ted R. Miller, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Hamed Mirzaei, Babak Moazen, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Yousef Mohammad, Dara K. Mohammad, Shafiu Mohammed, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Yaser Mokhayeri, Mariam Molokhia, Ahmed A. Montasir, Ghobad Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Jakub Morze, Sumaira Mubarik, Walter Muruet, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ahamarshan J. Nagarajan, Mahdi Nalini, Vinay Nangia, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Bruno R. Nascimento, Vinod C. Nayak, Javad Nazari, Milad Nazarzadeh, Ruxandra I. Negoi, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Huong L.T. Nguyen, Molly R. Nixon, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Brice E. Nouthe, Christoph Nowak, Oluwakemi O. Odukoya, Felix A. Ogbo, Andrew T. Olagunju, Hans Orru, Alberto Ortiz, Samuel M. Ostroff, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Raffaele Palladino, Adrian Pana, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Utsav Parekh, Eun-Cheol Park, Mojtaba Parvizi, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Urvish K. Patel, Mona Pathak, Rajan Paudel, Veincent Christian F. Pepito, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Norberto Perico, Hai Q. Pham, Thomas Pilgrim, Michael A. Piradov, Farhad Pishgar, Vivek Podder, Roman V. Polibin, Akram Pourshams, Dimas R.A. Pribadi, Navid Rabiee, Mohammad Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Ivo Rakovac, Pradhum Ram, Sudha Ramalingam, Juwel Rana, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Sowmya J. Rao, Priya Rathi, Lal Rawal, Wasiq F. Rawasia, Reza Rawassizadeh, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Aziz Rezapour, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Ross L. Roberts-Thomson, Leonardo Roever, Peter Rohloff, Michele Romoli, Gholamreza Roshandel, Godfrey M. Rwegerera, Seyedmohammad Saadatagah, Maha M. Saber-Ayad, Siamak Sabour, Simona Sacco, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Saeed Safari, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Sana Salehi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Mehrnoosh Samaei, Abdallah M. Samy, Itamar S. Santos, Milena M. Santric-Milicevic, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Arash Sarveazad, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Monika Sawhney, Mete Saylan, Maria I. Schmidt, Aletta E. Schutte, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Feng Sha, Saeed Shahabi, Izza Shahid, Masood A. Shaikh, Mahdi Shamali, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon, Aziz Sheikh, Mika Shigematsu, Min-Jeong Shin, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Ivy Shiue, Kerem Shuval, Soraya Siabani, Tariq J. Siddiqi, Diego A.S. Silva, Jasvinder A. Singh, Ambrish Singh Mtech, Valentin Y. Skryabin, Anna A. Skryabina, Amin Soheili, Emma E. Spurlock, Leo Stockfelt, Stefan Stortecky, Saverio Stranges, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Hooman Tadbiri, Eyayou G. Tadesse, Degena B. Tadesse, Masih Tajdini, Md Tariqujjaman, Berhane F. Teklehaimanot, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Ayenew K. Tesema, Bhaskar Thakur, Kavumpurathu R. Thankappan, Rekha Thapar, Amanda G. Thrift, Binod Timalsina, Marcello Tonelli, Mathilde Touvier, Marcos R. Tovani-Palone, Avnish Tripathi, Jaya P. Tripathy, Thomas C. Truelsen, Guesh M. Tsegay, Gebiyaw W. Tsegaye, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Biruk S. Tusa, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Krishna Kishore Umapathi, Brigid Unim, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Muhammad S. Usman, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Pascual R. Valdez, Tommi J. Vasankari, Diana Z. Velazquez, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Giang T. Vu, Isidora S. Vujcic, Yasir Waheed, Yanzhong Wang, Fang Wang, Jingkai Wei, Robert G. Weintraub, Abrha H. Weldemariam, Ronny Westerman, Andrea S. Winkler, Charles S. Wiysonge, Charles D.A. Wolfe, Befikadu Legesse Wubishet, Gelin Xu, Ali Yadollahpour, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Lijing L. Yan, Srikanth Yandrapalli, Yuichiro Yano, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Tomas Y. Yeheyis, Yigizie Yeshaw, Christopher S. Yilgwan, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Geevar Zachariah, Sojib Bin Zaman, Muhammed S. Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Ramin Zand, Alireza Zandifar, Afshin Zarghi, Mikhail S. Zastrozhin, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Wangjian Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Zhiyong Zou, Yves Miel H. Zuniga, and Christopher J.L. Murray

Subjects
BMI, body mass index, GBD, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, IS, ischemic stroke, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, MV, mitral valve, SDI, sociodemographic index, Global Health, UI, uncertainty interval, Global Burden of Disease, GBD-NHLBI-JACC Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Writing Group, 0302 clinical medicine, Cost of Illness, LDL, low-density lipoprotein, Case fatality rate, Global health, 030212 general & internal medicine, IKF, impaired kidney function, 1102 Cardiorespiratory Medicine and Haematology, Incidence (epidemiology), Health Policy, IHD, ischemic heart disease, 1. No poverty, AC, alcoholic cardiomyopathy, 3. Good health, HICs, high-income countries, Cardiovascular Diseases, DALYs, disability-adjusted life years, TMREL, theoretical minimum risk exposure level, Public Health, HHD, hypertensive heart disease, Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, medicine.medical_specialty, AF, atrial fibrillation, Population health, CVD, cardiovascular disease, LMICs, low- and middle-income countries, PM, particulate matter, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 03 medical and health sciences, JACC State-of-the-Art Review, RHD, rheumatic heart disease, Environmental health, medicine, Humans, LPA, low physical activity, YLLs, years of life lost, Health policy, Disease burden, PAD, peripheral artery disease, business.industry, SBP, systolic blood pressure, Public health, CKD, chronic kidney disease, The Present and Future, AFL, atrial flutter, Correction, HAP, household air pollution, ICD, International Classification of Diseases, CAVD, calcific aortic valve disease, YLDs, years lived with disability, Years of potential life lost, CHA, congenital heart anomalies, Cardiovascular System & Hematology, Heart Disease Risk Factors, business, population health
Abstract

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases., Central Illustration, Highlights • The burden of CVD, in number of DALYs and deaths, continues to increase globally. • CVD burden attributable to modifiable risk factors continues to increase globally. • Countries should invest in existing cost-effective public health programs and clinical interventions to target modifiable risks, promote healthy aging across the lifespan, and reduce disability and premature death due to CVD.

Published
2020

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