Search

In recent decades, global warming has been an indisputable fact. The increase in extreme events accompanied by the rise in temperature has huge influences on many aspects of the society and economy globally. As a result, forecasting how global temperatures will change and evolve in the future is crucial, but it is restricted by the accuracy and uncertainty of model simulations. Based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, this study first evaluates the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating different timescale components including high‐frequency components (HFC), low‐frequency components (LFC), and secular trend (ST) of surface air temperature (SAT). The results show that the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating the ST is better. Following the observation constraint method's correction of CMIP6 model simulations, we investigate the evolution characteristics of future temperature secular trends under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results show that under SSP245 scenario, the rise of SAT first appeared in northwest and east North America and eastern Europe. The spatial distribution of evolution characteristic under the SSP585 scenario is similar to that of the SSP245 scenario but with a larger magnitude. However, more pronounced differences appear in warming rate, which shows a downward trend over time under the SSP245 scenario and an upward trend with time under the SSP585 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation (FP) can lead to severe damage and the failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads – those used to design infrastructure over North America (NA) – for future periods of specified global mean temperature change (GMTC), relative to the recent 1986–2016 period, using a large 50-member initial-condition ensemble of the CanRCM4 regional climate model, driven by CanESM2 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The analysis is based on 3-hourly ice accretions on horizontal, vertical and radial surfaces calculated based on FP diagnosed by the offline Bourgouin algorithm and wind speed during FP. The CanRCM4 ensemble projects an increase in future design ice loads for most of northern NA and decreases for most of southern NA and some northeastern coastal regions. These changes are mainly caused by regional increases in future upper-level and surface temperatures associated with global warming. Projected changes in design ice thickness are also affected by changes in future precipitation intensity and surface wind speed. Changes in upper-level and surface temperature conditions for FP occurrence in CanRCM4 are in broad agreement with those from nine global climate models but display regional differences under the same level of global warming, indicating that a larger multi-model, multi-scenario ensemble may be needed to better account for additional sources of structural and scenario uncertainty. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40 ∘ N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of anthropogenic forcings in temperature changes during recent decades is investigated over a range of spatial scales. Changes in the annual mean surface temperature and also in the warmest night of the year, which has implications for human health, are considered. Distributions of regional trends with and without the effect of human activity are produced, using constraints from a global optimal detection analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are estimated to have more than doubled the likelihood of mean warming in all regions considered except central North America, where results are more model dependent. The likelihood of warming of the warmest night has also increased, but the estimated change is more uncertain. Inferences on sub-continental scales are indicative rather than definitive because of the absence of locally important forcings and processes in model simulations, as well as model biases. As model inconsistencies may impact regional analyses, a multi-model approach is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the multilevel governance system of global climate change according to the North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC). CEC was evaluated as a potential site and limitations of regional climate governance in North America. Regional governance occurs between the national and local level, with transnational regions linking subregions across the national boundaries. The absence of common interests on climate change is considered to be a relevant obstacle in developing a coordinated response. The possibility of enhancing U.S. concern for climate change and reengaging the U.S. in multilateral climate governance is one of CEC's potential advantage.

The sustainability of skiing tourism has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to global climate change. Earlier research, however, did not fully consider snowmaking as an adaptation strategy, which is integral to the ski industry in eastern North America. This study examines how it reduces the vulnerability of ski areas to climate change in six study areas by developing a model to assess the impact of climate change on season length, probability of operations during critical tourism periods, snowmaking costs, and water requirements. It suggests that in the 2020s, even the warmest climate change scenario poses only a minor risk to four of the six ski areas. The reassessment for the 2050s period found that only the warmest scenario would jeopardise the sustainability of three of the ski areas examined. The confluence of climatic changes and other nonclimate business factors will advantage certain ski areas and likely result in further contraction and consolidation in this regional ski market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present evidence from a variety of physical and biological proxies for a severe drought that affected the mid-continent of North America between 4.1 and 4.3 ka. Rapid climate changes associated with the event had large and widespread ecological effects, including dune reactivation, forest fires and long-term changes in forest composition, highlighting a clear ecological vulnerability to similar future changes. Drought is also documented in the Middle East and portions of Africa and Asia, where it was similar in timing, duration and magnitude to that recorded in the central North American records. Some regions at high latitudes, including northern Europe and Siberia, experienced cooler and/or wetter conditions. Widespread mid-latitude and subtropical drought, associated with increased moisture at some high latitudes, has been linked in the instrumental record to an unusually steep sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean (La Niña) and increased warmth in other equatorial oceans. Similar SST patterns may have occurred at 4.2 ka, possibly associated with external forcing or amplification of these spatial modes by variations in solar irradiance or volcanism. However, changes in SST distribution bracketing the 4.2 ka event are poorly known in most regions and data are insufficient to estimate magnitude of changes in solar and volcanic forcing at this time. Further research is needed to delineate geographical patterns of moisture changes, ecological responses, possible forcing mechanisms and climatology of this severe climatic event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents multi-proxy tree-ring data from twenty productive stands of white spruce in the interior of Alaska. Evidence that radial tree growth has decreased with increasing temperature; Effect of temperature-induced drought; Suggestion that drought stress may have been an important factor limiting carbon intake in North American forests; Implications for the future capacity of northern latitudes to sequester carbon.