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Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [P] roughly equals evaporation [E]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change. Plain Language Summary: Predicting precipitation changes due to climate change is of great importance for society. We propose that the present‐day characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle (for which precipitation roughly equals evaporation) predicts the spatial scale of future precipitation changes under global warming. For smaller scales than the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle, changes in precipitation could be much larger than the global mean change due to water vapor convergence contributions. However, above this scale the precipitation changes approach the relatively small global mean change. Using reanalysis data sets, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and additional numerical simulations, we identify the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change. These results suggest that changes in precipitation on the regional‐continental scale could be much larger than the global mean change. Key Points: The present‐day characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle predicts the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate changeUsing reanalysis data sets and CMIP5 models, we identify the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle to be ~3,500–4,000 kmThese results suggest that changes in precipitation on the continental scale could be much larger than the global mean change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the precipitation changes of the Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China, using a long-term (1980–2014) and highly resolved modeling (up to 3 km by 3 km) with the Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS) forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Firstly, the added value of high-resolution RIEMS simulation nested with ERA-Interim reanalysis was presented by comparisons among the RIEMS simulation results, site-based ground measurements, satellite-retrieved precipitation from TRMM 3B43 (V7), and the EAR-interim reanalysis data. The bias of the ERA-Interim reanalysis was largely corrected by the RIEMS simulation, although a little bias existed in the RIEMS simulation. RIEMS simulation showed that there was an increasing trend in the precipitation of the HRB from 1980 to 2014 with a rate of increase of approximately 3%/year for summer and 5%/year for autumn in the southeast part of the HRB. The increased precipitation mainly resulted from more precipitation days and the strengthening of daily precipitation. Upward motion from strengthened convergence over the eastern part of the HRB was the common reason for increased precipitation in summer and autumn, which was partly offset by decreased water vapor supply in summer while it was strengthened by increased water vapor supply in autumn. This paper presents precipitation changes for the HRB associated with global warming since 1980 and provides a higher-resolution climatological data set useful for reference climate impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate - fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 °C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 °C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 °C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 °C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971-2000) and future A1B scenario (2021-2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of −2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper presents an analysis of winter climate variability based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data since 1970 in the Chic-Chocs Mountain range (located in the Gaspé Peninsula, Eastern Quebec, Canada). Mountain environments are particularly sensitive to rapid climate change and are therefore good indicators of recent global warming. The main goal of this study is to demonstrate how joint probability temperature/precipitation distributions can be used to estimate winter condition changes (trends) for six meteorological stations in the study area (the altitudinal range for the stations is from 5 to 574 m). The presence and persistence of snow cover was also estimated. Previous studies have shown a lack of evidence of significant trends in snow-cover characteristics (density, depth and snow water equivalent (SWE)) from the early 1980s to the present, despite an increase in temperature over the same period. A reanalysis of these data sets in addition to the use of a combination of temperature and precipitation data categorized into four modes (warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet and cold/dry) was also performed. Despite this new analysis, no clear evidence of climate change could be found in the study area over the last four decades. The results revealed that patterns and trends are quite different from one station to another, but when the environment is taken into account (valley or plateau, coastal versus inland) some apparent patterns emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of investigating regional climate changes associated with degrees of global warming is increasingly being recognized, but the majority of relevant research has been based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This has left two important questions unanswered: Are there plausible futures which are not represented by the models in CMIP? And, how would regional climates evolve under enhanced global warming, beyond 4°C? In this paper, two perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) are used to address these issues with reference to African precipitation. Examination of model versions that generate warming greater than 4°C in the twenty-first century shows that changes in African precipitation are enhanced gradually, even to high global temperatures; however, there may be nonlinearities that are not incorporated here due to limited model complexity. The range of projections from the PPEs is compared to data from phases 3 and 5 of CMIP (CMIP3 and CMIP5), revealing regional differences. This is partly the result of implausible model versions, but the PPE dataset can be justifiably constrained given its size and systematic nature, highlighting an additional advantage over MMEs. After applying constraints, the PPEs still show changes that are outside the range of CMIP, most prominently strong dry signals in west equatorial Africa and the Sahel, implying that MMEs may underestimate risks for these regions. Analysis of African precipitation changes therefore demonstrates that regional assessments that rely on CMIP3 and CMIP5 may overlook uncertainties associated with model parameterizations and pronounced warming. More systematic approaches are needed for conservative estimates of danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy precipitation and the resulting flooding are the most serious weather-related hazards over the west coast of North America. This paper analyzes the trends in heavy precipitation for the period 1950--2009 by examining the decadal distributions of the top 60, 40, and 20 two-day precipitation events for a collection of stations along the coastal zone of the United States and British Columbia, as well as the decadal distribution of maximum daily discharge for unregulated rivers from northern California to Washington State. During the past 60 years there has been a modest increase in heavy precipitation events over southern and central coastal California, a decline in heavy events from northern California through the central Oregon coast, a substantial increase in major events over Washington, and a modest increase over coastal British Columbia. Most of these trends are not significantly different from zero at the 95%% level. The trends in maximum daily discharge of unregulated rivers are consistent with the above pattern, with increasing discharges over the past three decades over Washington and northern Oregon and declines over the remainder of Oregon and northern California. Finally, the above trends in heavy rainfall and daily discharge are compared to the future patterns indicated by general circulation models under various global warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) has earned Al Gore an Oscar and a share of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and has been widely acclaimed by the mass media. However, significant errors exist in the film, owing to alarmism and exaggeration. As this forum does not provide for a detailed examination of these errors, this paper will focus only on the portrayal of the hydrologic cycle by AIT--precipitation and floods, soil moisture and droughts, and storminess. AIT argues that precipitation and intense rainfalls, floods, droughts, and the total number, intensity, and duration of tropical cyclones have all increased due exclusively to anthropogenically-driven climate change; indeed, AIT paints a picture of near scientific certainty with an overwhelming bias toward catastrophe scenarios. A closer look at the science, however, reveals that the data do not support these claims and that the scientific community is divided as to what the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the hydrologic cycle will be. Thus, the film gives a false impression of both the current state of climate change and that 'the science is settled'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a consensus estimate of the changes in oceanic precipitation off the coast of Europe under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. An ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and three gauge and satellite-derived observational precipitation datasets are compared. While the fit between the RCMs’ simulation of current climate and the observations shows the consistency of the future-climate projections, uncertainties in both the models and the measurements need to be considered to generate a consensus estimate of the potential changes. Since oceanic precipitation is one of the factors affecting the thermohaline circulation, the feedback mechanisms of the changes in the net influx of freshwater from precipitation are relevant not only for improving oceanic-atmospheric coupled models but also to ascertain the climate signal in a global warming scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been found in previous studies to be a major synoptic factor affecting the climate of many regions in the high and mid-latitudes. This paper demonstrates the physical process by which the AO affects the climate of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, with a focus on precipitation in Israel as a case study. It is shown that a trend of increasing AO is associated with a substantial decrease of winter precipitation from the Iberian Peninsula, though Italy, Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, as well as Lebanon, Syria and also the northern parts of Israel. Winter rain is slightly increased in the southern coast of the eastern half of the Mediterranean Sea. The immediate meteorological causes are shown to be a larger northerly component of the flow over the Mediterranean Sea, associated with a decreasing relative humidity and stability, except over the southern coast, where the air mass has the longest track over the relatively warm water. We suggest here that the observed changes in air flow that drives the precipitation trends can be explained by shifts in the AO that can be partially explained by increasing greenhouses gases. Results from the IPCC multi climate models show that the AO will continue to increase during the 21st century. This increase may lead to a continuation of the trends discussed here. The importance of the analysis provided here is in pointing out the possibility that processes that have been predicted by global warming and changes in global circulation have already started to affect precipitation and major water resources in the Mediterranean basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we present a study concerning the climatic behaviour of two principal observables, temperature and precipitation as obtained from the measurements carried out at 50 Italian meteorological stations, since 1961. Analyses of WMO Climate Normals (CliNo) from 1961 to 1990 have been performed dividing the 50 Italian stations in three different classes: mountain (11 stations), continental (17) and coastal areas (21). The comparison of the CliNo 1961–1990 with the trend of temperature and precipitation for the period 1991–2000 showed a sharp significant increase of summer temperatures over Italy starting from 1980. This phenomenon was particularly evident for mountain stations, where a significant temperature increase has been recorded also during the autumn. Moreover, the analysis of precipitation data permitted to point out that, starting from 1980, mountain stations have been affected by a significant increase of precipitation events during autumn and winter, while for the rest of the Italian territory a reduction of precipitations has been recorded during early spring. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The extreme concentration of population over South Asia makes it critical to accurately understand the global warming impact on the South Asian monsoon (SAM), but the complex orography of the region makes future projections of monsoon intensity technically challenging. Here we describe a series of climate projections constructed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for South Asia to dynamically downscale a global warming simulation constructed using the Community Earth System Model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A physics-based miniensemble is employed to investigate the sensitivity of the projected change of the SAM to the implementation of different parameterization schemes in WRF. We analyze not only the changes in mean seasonal precipitation but also the impact of the warming process on precipitation extremes. All projections are characterized by a consistent increase in average monsoon precipitation and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution (more than a 50% decrease in the return periods of 50-yr extreme rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century). Further analysis based on one of the WRF physics ensemble members shows that both the average rainfall intensity changes and the extreme precipitation increases are projected to be slightly larger than expectations based upon the Clausius–Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% °C−1 of surface warming in most parts of India. This further increase can be primarily explained by the fact that the surface warming is projected to be smaller than the warming in the midtroposphere, where a significant portion of rain originates, and dynamical effects play only a secondary role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models predict that the tropical ascending region should tighten under global warming, but observational quantification of the tightening rate is limited. Here we show that the observed spatial extent of the relatively moist, rainy and cloudy regions in the tropics associated with large‐scale ascent has been decreasing at a rate of −1%/decade (−5%/K) from 1979 to 2016, resulting from combined effects of interdecadal variability and anthropogenic forcings, with the former contributing more than the latter. The tightening of tropical ascent is associated with an increase in the occurrence frequency of extremely strong ascent, leading to an increase in the average precipitation rate in the top 1% of monthly rainfall in the tropics. At the margins of the convective zones such as the Southeast Amazonia region, the contraction of large‐scale ascent is related to a long‐term drying trend about −3.2%/decade in the past 38 years. Plain Language Summary: The ascending branch of the tropical circulation is tied to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and encompasses the climatologically wettest area with heavy rainfall and abundant convective clouds. Climate models suggest that the tropical ascent area should tighten under global warming; however, observational evidence of the tightening is limited. We analyze three leading reanalysis datasets and three direct observables as proxies of large‐scale ascent in recent decades. We find that the area coverage of the tropical ascending region has been decreasing at a rate of −1%/decade from 1979 to 2016. The observed tightening is largely driven by natural climate variability and anthropogenically forced global warming plays a secondary role. The tightening of tropical ascent is associated with an increase in the average precipitation rate in the top 1% of monthly rainfall in the tropics. At the margins of the convective zones such as the Southeast Amazonia region, the contraction of large‐scale ascent is related to a drying trend about −3.2%/decade in the past 38 years. The regional expression of the tropical ascent tightening has profound hydrological impacts in such locations. Key Points: Tropical ascent area has been decreasing at a rate about ⎼1%/decade from 1979 to 2016Associated with tropical ascent tightening, rain rate in the top 1% of monthly rainfall in the tropics has been increasing at 1.1%/decadeSoutheast Amazon experiences a drying trend of about ⎼3.2%/decade related to tropical ascent tightening from 1979 to 2016 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the link between future changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and global warming levels is of great importance for regional climate change adaptation and mitigation in East Asia. Here, we analyze the projected changes in EASM circulation and precipitation under different warming levels from 1.5 to 5 °C above the preindustrial global mean temperature, using large‐ensemble simulations conducted with Canadian Earth System Model version 2. We find that the model projects enhanced monsoon circulation and precipitation with global warming. The 850‐hPa meridional winds, precipitation, and 500‐hPa vertical ascending motion will be enhanced nonlinearly, while the total column precipitable water will increase quasi‐linearly. The increase in precipitable water in the wet EASM region is only slightly greater than global average but the increase in precipitation is much greater than global one, with enhanced 500‐hPa vertical ascending motion contrary to global mean. The increased low‐level land‐sea thermal contrast leads to the enhanced EASM meridional circulation and thus bring a large amount of moisture into Eastern China, providing favorable conditions for additional increase in precipitation. A simplified moisture budget analysis shows that the dynamic component related to strengthening monsoon circulation plays dominant role in the increase in EASM precipitation when the global temperature increases by more than approximately 2 °C, while the thermodynamic component caused by increased water vapor is important when the warming is smaller. Plain Language Summary: Changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation have great impacts on human society, agriculture and energy in East Asia. Previous studies rarely investigated EASM circulation and precipitation changes under specific global mean temperature increases, such as 1.5 to 5 °C of warming. Here, we focus on EASM circulation and precipitation changes linked with different global warming levels. Four EASM metrics (850‐hPa meridional wind, precipitation, precipitable water, and 500‐hPa vertical velocity) are examined to reflect EASM system changes based on Canadian Earth System Model version 2 large‐ensemble runs. We find that EASM low‐level meridional wind, precipitation, and midlevel vertical ascending motion will be enhanced nonlinearly with warming, while precipitable water will increase quasi‐linearly with warming. The increase in EASM precipitation is greater than global average, accompanied by increasing vertical ascending motion and strengthened southerly winds. When global mean near‐surface air temperature increases by more than 2 °C, the dynamic component plays dominant role in the increased EASM precipitation, while the thermodynamic factor plays a secondary role. These results provide useful information for developing strategies for climate change policy in East Asia. Key Points: East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation are projected to increase nonlinearly with warmingThe EASM circulation is projected to enhance mainly driven by increased thermal contrasts in the lower troposphere rather than in upper layerBoth dynamic and thermodynamic components contribute to precipitation increase but dynamic change is more important at high warming level [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanisms that cause changes in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) precipitation amplitude under global warming are examined in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Under global warming in representative concentration pathway 8.5, MJO precipitation intensifies in most models relative to current climate while MJO wind circulations increase at a slower rate or weaken. Changes in MJO precipitation intensity are partially controlled by changes in moisture profiles and static stability. The vertical moisture gradient increases in the lower half of the troposphere in response to the surface warming, while the vertical static stability gradient increases due to preferential warming in the upper troposphere. A nondimensional quantity called α has been defined that gives the efficiency of vertical advective moistening associated with diabatic processes in the free troposphere, and has been hypothesized by previous studies to regulate MJO amplitude. The term α is proportional to the vertical moisture gradient and inversely proportional to static stability. Under global warming, the increased vertical moisture gradient makes α larger in models, despite increased static stability. Although α increases in all models, MJO precipitation amplitude decreases in some models, contrary to expectations. It is demonstrated that in these models more top-heavy MJO diabatic heating with warming overwhelms the effect of increased α to make vertical moisture advection less efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming experiments using three different 60 km mesh atmospheric global circulation models are studied to characterize ensemble mean future changes in monthly East Asian precipitation for June to August. During the summer, wetting and drying effects due to changes in the mean vertical motion play a key role in future precipitation changes, as does the "wet-get-wetter" effect due to increased moisture. The former processes are related adiabatically to the projected modification of 500 hPa horizontal atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by two cyclonic circulation anomalies extending over the eastern Eurasian Continent (C1) and the western North Pacific Ocean (C2) for each month. Over Japan, the western edge of C2 shifts from a region south of the Japanese Islands to northern Japan during June to August, representing a delayed northward movement or southward shift of the westerly jet over the western North Pacific in the future compared with the present-day climatology. Most regions of Japan lie within the northeasterly wind and associated downward-motion zones of C2, leading to significant uncertainties in future precipitation over Japan by the offset against the "wet-get-wetter" effect and possibly even a future decrease in precipitation. A wetter future climate is anticipated under weak subsidence or upward vertical motion zone of C2, such as western Japan in August away from C2, and the Southwest Islands of Japan in June in the C2 southwesterly wind zone. Over the eastern Eurasian Continent, C1 is distributed mainly over northeastern China in June and over central and southern China in July and August, respectively. During these months, most of the eastern regions are located within the southwesterly to southeasterly wind zone of C1, indicating wet future conditions due to enhanced upward motion. This tendency drives a further increase in precipitation in future wetter East Asian climate via the "wet-get-wetter" effect and the increased evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted global warming projections using global atmospheric models with high-horizontal resolution of 20-km (MRI-AGCM3.2S, the 20-km model) and 60-km (MRI-AGCM3.2H, the 60-km model) grid sizes. For the present-day climate of 21 years from 1983 to 2003, models were forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST). For the future climate of 21 years from 2079 to 2099, models were forced with future SST distributions projected by the models of the Fifth phase of Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Ensemble simulations for four different SST distributions and three different cumulus convection schemes were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of projection. The simulations consistently project the increase of precipitation over eastern China for almost all months. In June, precipitation decreases over Japan and increases over the ocean to the south of Japan. The geographical distribution of precipitation change tends to depend relatively on the cumulus convection scheme and horizontal resolution of models rather than on SST distributions. The time evolution of pentad mean precipitation over Japan indicates the delay in the onset of Japanese rainy season in June. This delay can be attributed to the decrease of water vapor transport toward Japan associated with the southward shift of the subtropical high. Change in the subtropical high can be interpreted as the southward shift of the local Hadley circulation. The intensity of precipitation increases over most part of East Asia, while the possibility of drought will increase over Japan, the East China Sea and the area to the south of Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warming climate is expected to intensify extreme precipitation, and climate models project a general intensification of annual extreme precipitation in most regions of the globe throughout the twenty-first century. We investigate the robustness of this future intensification over land across different models, regions, and seasons and evaluate the role of model interdependencies in the CMIP5 ensemble. Strong similarities in extreme precipitation changes are found between models that share atmospheric physics, turning an ensemble of 27 models into around 14 projections. We find that future annual extreme precipitation intensity increases in the majority of models and in the majority of land grid cells, from the driest to the wettest regions, as defined by each model’s precipitation climatology. The intermodel spread is generally larger over wet than over dry regions, smaller in the dry season compared to the wet season and at the annual scale, and largely reduced in extratropical compared to tropical regions and at the global scale. For each model, the future increase in annual and seasonal maximum daily precipitation amounts exceeds the range of simulated internal variability in the majority of land grid cells. At both annual and seasonal scales, however, there are a few regions where the change is still within the background climate noise, but their size and location differ between models. In extratropical regions, the signal-to-noise ratio of projected changes in extreme precipitation is particularly robust across models because of a similar change and background climate noise, whereas projected changes are less robust in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change due to an increase in greenhouse gases such ascarbon dioxide is now regarded as a serious worldwide environmental problem. It is described herein that there is a relation between the tropical zone and the polar/subpolar zone in the heat balance of the earth. The main purpose of the present paper is to show how the boreal environment should be incorporated in the study of global warming. The boreal environment is found to be affected by global warming, butthis sensitive environment plays an important part in the terrestrial radiation which releases thermal energy into space. This event depends upon a high albedo in the polar/subpolar zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation feature (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released (i.e., the power of the disturbance). The probability distribution of cluster power is examined over the tropics using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite-retrieved rain rates and global climate model output. Observed distributions are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability drops rapidly. After establishing an observational baseline, precipitation from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at two horizontal grid spacings (roughly 0.5° and 0.25°) is compared. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain-rate threshold in defining clusters, the model accurately reproduces observed cluster power statistics at both resolutions. Middle and end-of-century cluster power distributions are investigated in HiRAM in simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations from a 'business as usual' global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases strongly by end of century, exceeding a factor of 10 for the highest power events for which statistics can be computed. Clausius-Clapeyron scaling accounts for only a fraction of the increased probability of high cluster power events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program ( GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value ( GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio ( AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation activity on the Tibetan Plateau grassland has been substantially enhanced as a result of climate change, as revealed by satellite observations of vegetation greenness (i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI). However, little is known about the temporal variations in the relationships between NDVI and temperature and precipitation, and understanding this is essential for predicting how future climate change would affect vegetation activity. Using NDVI data and meteorological records from 1982 to 2011, we found that the inter-annual partial correlation coefficient between growing season (May-September) NDVI and temperature (R) in a 15-year moving window for alpine meadow showed little change, likely caused by the increasing R in spring (May-June) and autumn (September) and decreasing R in summer (July-August). Growing season R for alpine steppe increased slightly, mainly due to increasing R in spring and autumn. The partial correlation coefficient between growing season NDVI and precipitation (R) for alpine meadow increased slightly, mainly in spring and summer, and R for alpine steppe increased, mainly in spring. Moreover, R for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with more precipitation for alpine steppe. R for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with higher temperature, and this tendency was stronger for alpine meadow than for alpine steppe. These results indicate that the impact of warming on vegetation activity of Tibetan Plateau grassland is more positive (or less negative) during periods with more precipitation and that the impact of increasing precipitation is more positive (or less negative) during periods with higher temperature. Such positive effects of the interactions between temperature and precipitation indicate that the projected warmer and wetter future climate will enhance vegetation activity of Tibetan Plateau grassland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models generate a wide range of precipitation responses to global warming in the African Sahel, but all that use the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM2.1 model as their atmospheric component dry the region sharply. This study compares the Sahel's wet season response to uniform 2-K SST warming in AM2.1 using either its default convective parameterization, relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS), or an alternate, the University of Washington (UW) parameterization, using the moist static energy (MSE) budget to diagnose the relevant mechanisms. UW generates a drier, cooler control Sahel climate than does RAS and a modest rainfall increase with SST warming rather than a sharp decrease. Horizontal advection of dry, low-MSE air from the Sahara Desert-a leading-order term in the control MSE budget with either parameterization-is enhanced with oceanic warming, driven by enhanced meridional MSE and moisture gradients spanning the Sahel. With RAS, this occurs throughout the free troposphere and is balanced by anomalous MSE import through anomalous subsidence, which must be especially large in the midtroposphere where the moist static stability is small. With UW, the strengthening of the meridional MSE gradient is mostly confined to the lower troposphere, due in part to comparatively shallow prevailing convection. This necessitates less subsidence, enabling convective and total precipitation to increase with UW, although both large-scale precipitation and precipitation minus evaporation decrease. This broad set of hydrological and energetic responses persists in simulations with SSTs varied over a wide range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) has important environmental and socio-economic impacts in the region. However, state-of-the-art climate models still struggle in producing reliable climate predictions. An important cause of this low predictive skill is the sensitivity of climate models to different forcings. In this study, the mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO forcing are investigated, by comparing the effect of the CO direct radiative effect with its indirect effect mediated by the global sea surface warming. The July-to-September WAM variability is studied in climate simulations extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive, driven by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). The individual roles of global SST warming and CO atmospheric concentration increase are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4 K warmer SST and a quadrupled CO concentration, respectively. Results show opposite and competing responses in the WAM dynamics and precipitation. A dry response (−0.6 mm/day) to the SST warming is simulated in the Sahel, with dryer conditions over western Sahel (−0.8 mm/day). Conversely, the CO increase produces wet conditions (+0.5 mm/day) in the Sahel, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel (+0.7 mm/day). The associated responses in the atmospheric dynamics are also analysed, showing that the SST warming affects the Sahelian precipitation through modifications in the global tropical atmospheric dynamics, reducing the importance of the regional drivers, while the CO increase reinforces the coupling between precipitation and regional dynamics. A general agreement in model responses demonstrates the robustness of the identified mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO direct and indirect forcing, and indicates that these primary mechanisms are captured by climate models. Results also suggest that the spread in future projections may be caused by unbalanced model responses to the CO direct and indirect forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The middle-lower valley of the Yangtze River (MLY), located in the middle of eastern China, has been one of the largest economic centers of China since ancient times. Winter precipitation variability over the MLY is important for China because of its significant influence on the local economy. However, few studies have focused on the long-term variability of winter precipitation over the MLY. This study reports a significant wetting trend over the MLY in winter during the three decades since the late 1970s, forming a 'mid-east-China winter wetting' pattern, which has become an important feature of precipitation change under the weakening East Asian winter monsoon. This wetting trend in the MLY also implies the poleward extension of the precipitation belts of southern China. Further investigation reveals that the increasing sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is the dominant factor responsible for recent increases in precipitation over the MLY. The thermal forcing driven by warming of the TIO SST gives rise to an anomalous cyclonic circulation along the coast of eastern China. This transports more water vapor onto the Chinese mainland, shifts and causes anomalous convergence over the MLY, and generates the increase in precipitation there. As such, the increasing SST in the TIO induces over 80% of the observed wetting trend over the MLY. This mechanism was verified by results obtained from two sets of sensitivity experiments using a numerical spectral atmospheric general circulation model. Thus, increasing SST in the TIO has made a dominant contribution to the recent winter precipitation increase over the MLY. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The air temperature in the Alps has increased at a rate more than twice the global average in the last century, and a significant increase in the number of slope failures has also been documented, in particular in glacial and periglacial areas. Thus, the relationship between climatological forcing and processes of instability at high elevation is worth analyzing. We provide a simple, statistically based method aimed at identifying a relationship between climate factors and the triggering of geohazards. Our main idea is to compare the meteorological conditions at the time when the instability occurred with the typical conditions in the same place. Carrying out a straightforward analysis based on the use of the empirical distribution function, we are able to determine whether any of the meteorological variables had nonstandard values in the lead-up to the slope failure event, and thus to identify the variables that are likely to have acted as triggering factors for the slope failure. The method has been tested on five events in the glacial and periglacial areas of the Piedmont Alps (Northwestern Italy) occurring between 1989 and 2008. Out of these five case studies, our research shows that four can be attributed to climatic anomalies (rise of temperature and/or heavy precipitation). The results of this study may contribute to developing knowledge about the relationships between climatic variables and slope failures at high elevations, providing interesting insights into the expected impact of ongoing global warming on geohazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current orbital land precipitation products have serious shortcomings in detecting light rain and snowfall, the most frequent types of global precipitation. The missed precipitation is then propagated into the merged precipitation products that are widely used. Precipitation characteristics such as frequency and intensity and their regional distribution are expected to change in a warming climate. It is important to accurately capture those characteristics to understand and model the current state of the Earth's climate and predict future changes. In this work, the precipitation detection performance of a suite of precipitation sensors, commonly used in generating the merged precipitation products, are investigated. The high sensitivity of CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) to liquid and frozen hydrometeors enables superior estimates of light rainfall and snowfall within 80°S-80°N. Three years (2007-2009) of CloudSat precipitation data were collected to construct a climatology reference for guiding our analysis. In addition, auxiliary data such as infrared brightness temperature, surface air temperature, and cloud types were used for a more detailed assessment. The analysis shows that no more than 50% of the tropical (40°S-40°N) precipitation occurrence is captured by the current suite of precipitation measuring sensors. Poleward of 50° latitude, a combination of various factors such as an abundance of light rainfall, snowfall, shallow precipitation-bearing clouds, and frozen surfaces reduces the space-based precipitation detection rate to less than 20%. This shows that for a better understanding of precipitation from space, especially at higher latitudes, there is a critical need to improve current precipitation retrieval techniques and sensors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interdecadal and the interannual variability of the global monsoon (GM) precipitation over the area which is chosen by the definition of Wang and Ding (Geophys Res Lett 33: L06711, ) are investigated. The recent increase of the GM precipitation shown in previous studies is in fact dominant during local summer. It is evident that the GM monsoon precipitation has been increasing associated with the positive phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation in recent decades. Against the increasing trend of the GM summer precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, its interannual variability has been weakened. The significant change-point for the weakening is detected around 1993. The recent weakening of the interannual variability is related to the interdecadal changes in interrelationship among the GM subcomponents around 1993. During P1 (1979-1993) there is no significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents. On the other hand, there are significant interrelationships among the Asian, North American, and North African summer monsoon precipitations during P2 (1994-2009). It is noted that the action center of the interdecadal changes is the Asian summer (AS) monsoon system. It is found that during P2 the Western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM)-related variability is dominant but during P1 the ENSO-related variability is dominant over the AS monsoon region. The WNPSM-related variability is rather related to central-Pacific (CP) type ENSO rather than the eastern-Pacific (EP) type ENSO. Model experiments confirm that the CP type ENSO forcing is related to the dominant WNPSM-related variability and can be responsible for the significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We carried out simulations with predefined and simulated aerosol distributions in order to investigate the improvement in the forecasting capabilities of an operational weather forecast model by the use of an improved aerosol representation. This study focuses on convective cumulus clouds developing after the passage of a cold front on 25 April 2008 over Germany. The northerly flow after the cold front leads to increased sea salt aerosol concentrations compared to prefrontal conditions. High aerosol number concentrations are simulated in the interactive scenario representing typically polluted conditions. Nevertheless, due to the presence of sea salt particles, effective radii of cloud droplets reach values typical of pristine clouds (between 7 µm and 13 µm) at the same time. Compared to the predefined continental and maritime aerosol scenarios, the simulated aerosol distribution leads to a significant change in cloud properties such as cloud droplet radii and number concentrations. Averaged over the domain covered by the convective cumuli clouds, we found a systematic decrease in precipitation with increasing aerosol number concentrations. Differences in cloud cover, short wave radiation and cloud top heights are buffered by systematic differences in precipitation and the related diabatic effects. Comparisons with measured precipitation show good agreement for the interactive aerosol scenario as well as for the extreme maritime aerosol scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming in organized convection is examined using a cloud-resolving model. Vertical shear is imposed to organize the convection into squall lines. Earlier studies show that in disorganized convection, the fractional increase of precipitation extremes is similar to that of surface water vapor, which is substantially smaller than the increase in column water vapor. It has been suggested that organized convection could lead to stronger amplifications. Regardless of the strength of the shear, amplifications of precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable to those of surface water vapor and are substantially less than increases in column water vapor. The results without shear and with critical shear, for which the squall lines are perpendicular to the shear, are surprisingly similar with a fractional rate of increase of precipitation extremes slightly smaller than that of surface water vapor. Interestingly, the dependence on shear is nonmonotonic, and stronger supercritical shear yields larger rates, close to or slightly larger than surface humidity. A scaling is used to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to precipitation extreme changes. To first order, they are dominated by the thermodynamic component, which has the same magnitude for all shears, close to the change in surface water vapor. The dynamic contribution plays a secondary role and tends to weaken extremes without shear and with critical shear, while it strengthens extremes with supercritical shear. These different dynamic contributions for different shears are due to different responses of convective mass fluxes in individual updrafts to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03°C (10 yr) to 0.12°C (10 yr). This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values, and so have received much attention. In this study, twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008. The results reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequencies of extreme warm days and nights. Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant. Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming. At a large proportion of the stations, patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961: warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature. As the center of the Shaluli Mountain, the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer. Changes in precipitation extremes is low: trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation, and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level. It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains, however, the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north. Overall, the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming affects the hydrological cycle by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and dry spells. These changes potentially affect the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) input into lakes. In this study, we investigated if changes in precipitation over a 3-year period correspond to changes in DOM and whether these changes affect light attenuation and plankton community composition. We sampled Lake Escondido, a shallow, oligotrophic Andean lake, nine times, analyzing coloured DOM and plankton community composition. During the study period, we observed that variations in the precipitation regime correlated with DOM parameters (water colour and molecular weight), and this, in turn, affected the plankton composition. Chlorophyll a concentrations of both phytoplanktonic fractions (less than and greater than 2 μm) were related to water colour and TDP. We observed in the small fraction (<2 μm) an increase in phycocyanin-rich cells during periods of high water colour. Larger phytoplanktonic cells (>2 μm) presented two biomass peaks corresponding to increases of the cyanophyte Chroococcus planctonicus and of the haptophyte Chrysochromulina parva. As precipitation decreased, the lake became more transparent, favouring C. planctonicus and mixotrophic oligotrich ciliates with endosymbiotic Chlorella. In the context of global climate change, our results highlight the potential impact of changes in precipitation patterns and, consequently, in DOM quality on the plankton community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations, a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October--December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore, most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events, which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects, a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made, supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain, almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations with different CO2 concentrations, local precipitation fluxes are found to obey Clausius--Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Previous studies of the effect of CO2 concentration on precipitation extremes have used general circulation models, which are poor platforms for studying tropical convection because convection is parameterized. In idealized cloud-resolving simulations, it is possible to identify not only the changes in local precipitation fluxes, but also the factors responsible for those changes. There are many properties of convection that can change as the atmosphere warms, each of which could produce deviations from CC scaling. These properties include the effective water-vapor gradient, cloud pressure depth, and cloud velocity. A simple theory is developed that predicts the changes in these properties consistent with CC scaling. Convection in the cloud-resolving simulations is found to change as predicted by this theory, leading to an ∼∼20%% increase in local precipitation fluxes when the CO2 concentration is doubled. Overall, an increase in CO2 leads to more vigorous convection, composed of clouds that are wider, taller, and faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates a decadal climate shift over East Asia in winter, focusing on the changes in hydrological cycle as well as large-scale circulation using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The RSM is forced by perfect boundary conditions for winter (December-February) from 1979 to 2007. Analyses for two separate periods (1979-87 and 1999-2007) are performed to investigate the regional climate model's ability to simulate climate change in precipitation as well as large-scale circulation. The RSM reproduces differences in large-scale features associated with winter climate change over East Asia when the winter monsoon is modulated on decadal time scales with its weakening pattern observed since the late 1980s. The model adequately reproduces a weakening of the Siberian high and shallowness of the Aleutian low in the lower troposphere and a weakened East Asian coastal trough and East Asian jet in the upper troposphere during 1999-2007, as compared to the first nine winters of 1979-87. Conversely, the decadal shift in precipitation is not well reproduced by the model. The model is capable of reproducing the power spectrum of daily precipitation with maxima at 8.5 days and 45 days in 1979-87, whereas widely spread peaks in 1999-2007 are not captured. The increase of precipitation due to parameterized convection is prominent. This study shows that the dynamical numerical model has a limited capability to reproduce the wintertime hydrological climate over East Asia associated with global warming in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming in twenty-first-century climate projections is smaller in an emission scenario with larger greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions, according to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC3.2) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The authors examined the reasons for the precipitation sensitivity to emission scenarios by performing separated individual forcing runs under high and low emission scenarios. It was found that the dependency on emission scenario is mainly caused by differences in black and organic carbon aerosol forcing (the sum of which is cooling forcing) between the emission scenarios and that the precipitation is more sensitive to carbon aerosols than well-mixed greenhouse gases. They also investigated the reason for the larger precipitation sensitivity (larger magnitude of precipitation decrease per 1 K cooling of temperature) in the carbon aerosol runs. Surface dimming due to the direct and indirect effects of carbon aerosols effectively decreases evaporation and precipitation, which enhances the precipitation sensitivity in the carbon aerosol runs. In terms of the atmospheric moisture cycle, although changes of vertical circulation offset the effects of changes in the atmospheric moisture in both the carbon aerosol and greenhouse gas runs, the amplitude of vertical circulation change per 1 K temperature change is less in the carbon aerosol runs. Furthermore, the second indirect effect of organic carbon aerosol counteracts the influence of the vertical circulation change. These factors lead to suppression of changes in the moisture’s atmospheric residence time and increase of the precipitation sensitivity in the carbon aerosol runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the nature and causes for observed regional precipitation trends during 1977–2006 are diagnosed. It is found that major features of regional trends in annual precipitation during 1977–2006 are consistent with an atmospheric response to observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. This includes drying over the eastern Pacific Ocean that extends into western portions of the Americas related to a cooling of eastern Pacific SSTs, and broad increases in rainfall over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere, including a Sahelian rainfall recovery and increased wetness over the Indo–West Pacific related to North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific ocean warming. It is further determined that these relationships between SST and rainfall change are generally not symptomatic of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The intensity of regional trends simulated in climate models using observed time variability in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosol, and solar and volcanic aerosol forcing are appreciably weaker than those observed and also weaker than those simulated in atmospheric models using only observed SST forcing. The pattern of rainfall trends occurring in response to such external radiative forcing also departs significantly from observations, especially a simulated increase in rainfall over the tropical Pacific and southeastern Australia that are opposite in sign to the actual drying in these areas. Additional experiments illustrate that the discrepancy between observed and GHG-forced rainfall changes during 1977–2006 results mostly from the differences between observed and externally forced SST trends. Only weak rainfall sensitivity is found to occur in response to the uniform distribution of SST warming that is induced by GHG and aerosol forcing, whereas the particular pattern of the observed SST change that includes an increased SST contrast between the east Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and strong regional warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, was a key driver of regional rainfall trends. The results of this attribution study on the causes for 1977–2006 regional rainfall changes are used to discuss prediction challenges including the likelihood that recent rainfall trends might persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, does the effect of the rising global surface temperature accelerate the hydrological cycle? To address this issue, we use the hydro-climatic data from five sub-basins in Poyang Lake basin in the southeast China over the past 50 years, to investigate the annual and seasonal trends of streamflow and the correlations between streamflow and climatic variables. The Theil-Sen Approach and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test are applied to identify the trends in the annual and seasonal streamflow, precipitation and evapotranspiration series. It was found that annual and seasonal streamflow of all the stations had increasing trends except Lijiadu station in wet season. Only 37.5% hydro-stations in annual streamflow increased significantly, while most stations increased at 95% significance level in dry season. Trends in annual and seasonal precipitation during the whole period were generally not as significant as those in evapotranspiration. The correlations between streamflow and climate variables (precipitation and evapotranspiration) were detected by the Pearson's test. The results showed that streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin are more sensitive to changes in precipitation than potential evapotranspiration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The local climate of two south-facing, steppe-covered slopes was studied in the Eroo River valley in the western Khentey Mountains, northern Mongolia, and compared to the climate of a floodplain meadow. The microclimate of these sites is of special interest because: (i) the climate-dependent forest–steppe border runs through northern Mongolia; and (ii) the area encountered late 20th century warming far above the global average. The overall climate of the study area is characterized by highly variable, low annual precipitation (<300 mm), an annual average of air temperature around the freezing point and a high seasonal amplitude of temperature of 80°C. South-facing slopes were warmer and drier than the floodplain. High soil temperatures with maxima of nearly 60°C at 1 cm depth and low soil moisture are capable of inhibiting tree growth on the south-facing slopes. Soils on the open slope are warmer than at the treeline between taiga forests and grasslands and, thus, less suited for tree growth. On the open slopes, soil temperatures primarily depend on the inclination and the vegetation cover suggesting an interrelationship between the present vegetation, microclimate and the potential for the establishment of trees. Because climate in Mongolia is predicted to become warmer and drier at many places, hot and dry soil conditions inhibiting the establishment of trees may be expected to be more common in future. An expansion of such unfavorable conditions could cause the spread of grasslands to slopes in western and eastern aspects, which are presently occupied by forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Global warming and a changing precipitation regime could have a profound impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes, especially in arid and semiarid grasslands where water is limited. A field experiment manipulating temperature and precipitation has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China since 2005. • A paired, nested experimental design was used, with increased precipitation as the primary factor and warming simulated by infrared radiators as the secondary factor. • The results for the first 2 yr showed that gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) was higher than ecosystem respiration, leading to net C sink (measured by net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) over the growing season in the study site. The interannual variation of NEE resulted from the difference in mean annual precipitation. Experimental warming reduced GEP and NEE, whereas increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C and water fluxes in both years. Increased precipitation also alleviated the negative effect of experimental warming on NEE. • The results demonstrate that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating ecosystem C and water fluxes and their responses to climatic change in the temperate steppe of northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends of extreme wet and dry conditions during recent decades were examined using observed data for eastern China. Mean precipitation for the region has shown a significant downward trend from the 1950s tothe mid-1970s, and a positive trend since the late 1970s. The changein trend since the late 1970s, i.e. the period during which enhancedglobal warming emerged, is most prominent. The linear trend of the mean summer rainfall anomalies over the 4 subregions studied was +7.5%decade-1. Changes in the trend of severe wet and dry events are not symmetrical. During the period 1977-1998, the number of severe wet stations increased at the rate of 20.3 decade-1, but the trend for severe dry events was only -5.4 decade-1. Similar rainfall changes can be found over many global land areas. The summer rainfall in eastern China showed only a negligible seculartrend during the period 1880-1998. However, the decadal variations were clear. The mean rainfall in 1990-1998 was higher than for any other decade in the last 100 yr. The linear trend of the 33-station meanduring 1977-1998 was +47.5 mm decade-1; such a strong increase is unprecedented in the record since 1880. Decadal variations and global warming may both play important roles in the recent significant increase in summer rainfall. This paper also presents the results of greenhouse and/or aerosol forcing experiments, in which summer precipitation over eastern China is generally estimated to rise. Thereare many uncertainties, however, in the regional precipitation simulations. For example, the modeled rainfall is sensitive to whether aerosols are included or not. Further research is needed to determine whether there is a substantial relationship between the rainfall changes in China and global greenhouse warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African Sahel provides the most dramatic example of multi-decadal climate variability that has been quantitatively and directly measured. Annual rainfall across this region fell by between 20 and 30 percent between the decades leading up to political independence for the Sahelian nations (1930s to 1950s) and the decades since (1970s to 1990s). Climatic perspectives on the nature and causes of this period of desiccation have changed and, in some cases, matured as the years -- and the drought -- continued. This paper reviews these changing perspectives and reflects on three central questions: How unique an occurrence has been this desiccation in the recent human history of the Sahel? Can we find an adequate explanation for this desiccation in the natural forces that shape the climate system, or do we have to implicate human interventions in the system? Is our understanding of climate variability sufficient to allow us to develop seasonal rainfall forecasting capabilities for the region? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources. It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows at a spatial resolution of 0.5x 0.5 deg. using a macro-scale hydrological model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World.Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios // but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would rise by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction inp [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events and, thus, the risks of flood‐related mortality and infrastructure damage. Global‐scale assessments of future flooding from Earth system models based only on precipitation changes neglect important processes that occur within the land surface, particularly plant physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 can reduce stomatal conductance and transpiration, which may lead to increased soil moisture and runoff in some regions, promoting flooding even without changes in precipitation. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant physiological and radiative greenhouse effects on changes in daily runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant physiological effects have a small impact on precipitation intensity but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one half of the 99th and one third of the 99.9th percentile runoff intensity changes. Plain Language Summary: Floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the world, contributing to thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in damages annually. Climate change is expected to increase flood exposure considerably through the 21st century. However, recent studies assessing future flood risk on global scales by downscaling precipitation from Earth system models often neglect important plant physiological responses to rising CO2. In particular, higher CO2 concentrations may lower stomatal conductance and, in the absence of significant plant growth, reduce water loss through transpiration, increasing soil moisture in many regions. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture can decrease the amount of rain that infiltrates the soil and increase runoff. Here we apply a simulation design that isolates the independent effects of higher CO2 on radiatively driven precipitation intensification from plant‐driven soil moisture changes. We show that plant‐physiological responses to increasing CO2 are major drivers of the runoff intensity change in the tropics. Land surface changes contribute to one half of the 99th percentile runoff change and one third of the 99.9th percentile change. Our results suggest that comprehensive flood assessments should account for plant physiology as well as radiative impacts of higher CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practice. Key Points: Plant physiological responses drive a larger increase in the daily intensity of runoff than the annual mean in simulations with rising CO2Plant physiological responses to rising CO2 contribute as much as radiative greenhouse effects to changes in the 99th percentile daily runoffAssessments of future flood risk on global scales should include both atmosphere and land‐driven impacts on rainfall and runoff intensity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]