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The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass as the climate warms through both increased meltwater runoff and ice discharge at marine-terminating sectors. At the ice sheet surface, meltwater runoff forms a dynamic supraglacial hydrological system which includes stream and river networks and large supraglacial lakes (SGLs). Streams and rivers can route water into crevasses or into supraglacial lakes with crevasses underneath, both of which can then hydrofracture to the ice sheet base, providing a mechanism for the surface meltwater to access the bed. Understanding where, when, and how much meltwater is transferred to the bed is important because variability in meltwater supply to the bed can increase ice flow speeds, potentially impacting the hypsometry of the ice sheet in grounded sectors, and iceberg discharge to the ocean. Here we present a new, physically based, supraglacial hydrology model for the GrIS that is able to simulate (a) surface meltwater routing and SGL filling; (b) rapid meltwater drainage to the ice sheet bed via the hydrofracture of surface crevasses both in and outside of SGLs; (c) slow SGL drainage via overflow in supraglacial meltwater channels; and, by offline coupling with a second model, (d) the freezing and unfreezing of SGLs from autumn to spring. We call the model the Supraglacial Hydrology Evolution and Drainage (or SHED) model. We apply the model to three study regions in southwest Greenland between 2015 and 2019 (inclusive) and evaluate its performance with respect to observed supraglacial lake extents and proglacial discharge measurements. We show that the model reproduces 80 % of observed lake locations and provides good agreement with observations in terms of the temporal evolution of lake extent. Modelled moulin density values are in keeping with those previously published, and seasonal and inter-annual variability in proglacial discharge agrees well with that which is observed, though the observations lag the model by a few days since they include transit time through the subglacial system, while the model does not. Our simulations suggest that lake drainage behaviours may be more complex than traditional models suggest, with lakes in our model draining through a combination of both overflow and hydrofracture and with some lakes draining only partially and then refreezing. This suggests that, in order to simulate the evolution of Greenland's surface hydrological system with fidelity, a model that includes all of these processes needs to be used. In future work, we will couple our model to a subglacial model and an ice flow model and thus use our estimates of where, when, and how much meltwater gets to the bed to understand the consequences for ice flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a major contributor to current and projected sea level rise in the warming climate. However, uncertainties in Greenland's contribution to future sea level rise remain, partly due to challenges in constraining the role of ice dynamics. Transient ice accelerations, or ice speed-up events, lasting from 1 d to 1 week, have the potential to indirectly affect the mass budget of the ice sheet. They are triggered by an overload of the subglacial drainage system due to an increase in water supply. In this study, we identify melt-induced ice speed-up events at the Russell Glacier, southwest Greenland, in order to analyse synoptic patterns driving these events. The short-term speed-up events are identified from daily ice velocity time series collected from six GPS stations along the glacier for each summer (May–October) from 2009 to 2012. In total, 45 ice speed-up events are identified, of which we focus on the 36 melt-induced events, where melt is derived from two in situ observational datasets and one regional climate model forced by ERA5 reanalysis. We identify two additional potential water sources, namely lake drainages and extreme rainfall, which occur during 14 and 4 out of the 36 melt-induced events, respectively. The 36 melt-induced speed-up events occur during synoptic patterns that can be grouped into three main clusters: (1) patterns that resemble atmospheric rivers with a landfall in southwest Greenland, (2) patterns with anticyclonic blocking centred over southwest Greenland, and (3) patterns that show low-pressure systems centred either south or southeast of Greenland. Out of these clusters, the one resembling atmospheric river patterns is linked to the strongest speed-up events induced by 2 to 3 d continuously increasing surface melt driven by anomalously high sensible heat flux and incoming longwave radiation. In the other two clusters, the net shortwave radiation dominates the contribution to the melt energy. As the frequency and intensity of these weather patterns may change in the warming climate, so may the frequency and intensity of ice speed-up events, ultimately altering the mass loss of the ice sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]