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The pediatric International IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) Prediction Tool comprises two models with and without ethnicity and is the first method to predict the risk of a 30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or kidney failure in children at the time of biopsy using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. However, it is unknown if the Prediction Tool can be applied after a period of observation post-biopsy. Using an international multi-ethnic cohort of 947 children with IgAN, 38% of whom were followed into adulthood, the Prediction Tool was updated for use one year after biopsy. Compared to the original pediatric Prediction Tool, the updated post-biopsy Prediction Tool had a better model fit with higher R 2 D (51%/50% vs 20%), significant increase in 4-year C-statistics (0.83 vs 0.73/0.69, ΔC 0.09 [95% confidence interval 0.07-0.10] and ΔC 0.14 [0.12-0.15]) and better 4-year calibration with lower integrated calibration indices (0.74/0.54 vs 2.45/1.01). Results were similar after internal validation and when the models were applied two years after biopsy. Trajectories of eGFR after a baseline one year post-biopsy were non-linear and those at higher predicted risk started with a lower eGFR and experienced a more rapid decline over time. In children, eGFR had a variable rate of increase until 15-18 years old and then decreased linearly with a more rapid decline in higher risk groups that was similar to young adults of comparable risk. Thus, the original pediatric Prediction Tool should be used in children at the time of biopsy, and the updated pediatric Prediction Tool should be used to re-evaluate risk one or two years after biopsy., (Copyright © 2024 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Nephritis is a common manifestation of IgA vasculitis and is morphologically indistinguishable from IgA nephropathy. While MEST-C scores are predictive of kidney outcomes in IgA nephropathy, their value in IgA vasculitis nephritis has not been investigated in large multiethnic cohorts., Methods: Biopsies from 262 children and 99 adults with IgA vasculitis nephritis ( N =361) from 23 centers in North America, Europe, and Asia were independently scored by three pathologists. MEST-C scores were assessed for correlation with eGFR/proteinuria at biopsy. Because most patients ( N =309, 86%) received immunosuppression, risk factors for outcomes were evaluated in this group using latent class mixed models to identify classes of eGFR trajectories over a median follow-up of 2.7 years (interquartile range, 1.2-5.1). Clinical and histologic parameters associated with each class were determined using logistic regression., Results: M, E, T, and C scores were correlated with either eGFR or proteinuria at biopsy. Two classes were identified by latent class mixed model, one with initial improvement in eGFR followed by a late decline (class 1, N =91) and another with stable eGFR (class 2, N =218). Class 1 was associated with a higher risk of an established kidney outcome (time to ≥30% decline in eGFR or kidney failure; hazard ratio, 5.84; 95% confidence interval, 2.37 to 14.4). Among MEST-C scores, only E1 was associated with class 1 by multivariable analysis. Other factors associated with class 1 were age 18 years and younger, male sex, lower eGFR at biopsy, and extrarenal noncutaneous disease. Fibrous crescents without active changes were associated with class 2., Conclusions: Kidney outcome in patients with biopsied IgA vasculitis nephritis treated with immunosuppression was determined by clinical risk factors and endocapillary hypercellularity (E1) and fibrous crescents, which are features that are not part of the International Study of Diseases of Children classification., (Copyright © 2024 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Background: Recently, a tool based on two different artificial neural networks has been developed. The first network predicts kidney failure (KF) development while the second predicts the time frame to reach this outcome. In this study, we conducted a post-hoc analysis to evaluate the discordant results obtained by the tool., Methods: The tool performance was analyzed in a retrospective cohort of 1116 adult IgAN patients, as were the causes of discordance between the predicted and observed cases of KF., Results: There was discordance between the predicted and observed KF in 216 IgAN patients (19.35%) all of whom were elderly, hypertensive, had high serum creatinine levels, reduced renal function and moderate or severe renal lesions. Many of these patients did not receive therapy or were non-responders to therapy. In other IgAN patients the tool predicted KF but the outcome was not reached because patients responded to therapy. Therefore, in the discordant group (prediction did not match the observed outcome) the proportion of patients having or not having KF was strongly associated with treatment (P < 0.0001)., Conclusions: The post-hoc analysis shows that discordance in a low number of patients is not an error, but rather the effect of positive response to therapy. Thus, the tool could both help physicians to determine the prognosis of the disease and help patients to plan for their future., (© 2022. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Italian Society of Nephrology.)

The proteasome to immunoproteasome (iPS) switch consists of β1, β2 and β5 subunit replacement by low molecular weight protein 2 (LMP2), LMP7 and multicatalytic endopeptidase-like complex-1 (MECL1) subunits, resulting in a more efficient peptide preparation for major histocompatibility complex 1 (MHC-I) presentation. It is activated by toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists and interferons and may also be influenced by genetic variation. In a previous study we found an iPS upregulation in peripheral cells of patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). We aimed to investigate in 157 IgAN patients enrolled through the multinational Validation Study of the Oxford Classification of IgAN (VALIGA) study the relationships between iPS switch and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) modifications from renal biopsy to sampling. Patients had a previous long follow-up (6.4 years in median) that allowed an accurate calculation of their slope of renal function decline. We also evaluated the effects of the PSMB8/PSMB9 locus (rs9357155) associated with IgAN in genome-wide association studies and the expression of messenger RNAs (mRNAs) encoding for TLRs and CD46, a C3 convertase inhibitor, acting also on T-regulatory cell promotion, found to have reduced expression in progressive IgAN. We detected an upregulation of LMP7/β5 and LMP2/β1 switches. We observed no genetic effect of rs9357155. TLR4 and TLR2 mRNAs were found to be significantly associated with iPS switches, particularly TLR4 and LMP7/β5 (P < 0.0001). The LMP7/β5 switch was significantly associated with the rate of eGFR loss (P = 0.026), but not with eGFR at biopsy. Fast progressors (defined as the loss of eGFR >75th centile, i.e. -1.91 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) were characterized by significantly elevated LMP7/β5 mRNA (P = 0.04) and low CD46 mRNA expression (P < 0.01). A multivariate logistic regression model, categorizing patients by different levels of kidney disease progression, showed a high prediction value for the combination of high LMP7/β5 and low CD46 expression., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.)

Although IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a common cause of glomerulonephritis in children, the absence of a method to predict disease progression limits personalized risk-based treatment decisions. The adult International IgAN Prediction Tool comprises two validated Cox survival models that predict a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end stage kidney disease (ESKD) using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. Here, we updated the Prediction Tool for use in children using a multiethnic international cohort of 1,060 children with IgAN followed into adulthood. The updated pediatric Prediction Tool had better model fit than the original adult tool with lower Akaike Information Criterion, higher R 2 D and similar C-statistics. However, calibration showed very poor agreement between predicted and observed risks likely due to the observed disease trajectory in children. Therefore, the Tool was updated using a secondary outcome of a 30% reduction in eGFR or ESKD, resulting in better R 2 D (30.3%/22.2%) and similar C-statistics (0.74/0.68) compared to the adult tool but with good calibration. The trajectory of eGFR over time in children differed from adults being highly non-linear with an increase until 18 years old followed by a linear decline similar to that of adults. A higher predicted risk was associated with a smaller increase in eGFR followed by a more rapid decline, suggesting that children at risk of a 30% decrease in eGFR will eventually experience a larger 50% decrease in eGFR when followed into adulthood. As such, these two outcomes are analogous between pediatric and adult Prediction Tools. Thus, our pediatric Prediction Tool can accurately predict the risk of a 30% decline in eGFR or ESKD in children with IgAN., (Copyright © 2020 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We have developed an artificial neural network prediction model for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) using a retrospective cohort of 948 patients with IgAN. Our tool is based on a two-step procedure of a classifier model that predicts ESKD, and a regression model that predicts development of ESKD over time. The classifier model showed a performance value of 0.82 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) in patients with a follow-up of five years, which improved to 0.89 at the ten-year follow-up. Both models had a higher recall rate, which indicated the practicality of the tool. The regression model showed a mean absolute error of 1.78 years and a root mean square error of 2.15 years. Testing in an independent cohort of 167patients with IgAN found successful results for 91% of the patients. Comparison of our system with other mathematical models showed the highest discriminant Harrell C index at five- and ten-years follow-up (81% and 86%, respectively), paralleling the lowest Akaike information criterion values (355.01 and 269.56, respectively). Moreover, our system was the best calibrated model indicating that the predicted and observed outcome probabilities did not significantly differ. Finally, the dynamic discrimination indexes of our artificial neural network, expressed as the weighted average of time-dependent areas under the curve calculated at one and two years, were 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Similar results were observed over a 25-year follow-up period. Thus, our tool identified individuals who were at a high risk of developing ESKD due to IgAN and predicted the time-to-event endpoint. Accurate prediction is an important step toward introduction of a therapeutic strategy for improving clinical outcomes., (Copyright © 2020 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: It is unknown whether renal pathology lesions in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) correlate with renal outcomes over decades of follow-up., Methods: In 1130 patients of the original Validation Study of the Oxford Classification for IgA Nephropathy (VALIGA) cohort, we studied the relationship between the MEST score (mesangial hypercellularity, M; endocapillary hypercellularity, E; segmental glomerulosclerosis, S; tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, T), crescents (C) and other histological lesions with both a combined renal endpoint [50% estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) loss or kidney failure] and the rate of eGFR decline over a follow-up period extending to 35 years [median 7 years (interquartile range 4.1-10.8)]., Results: In this extended analysis, M1, S1 and T1-T2 lesions as well as the whole MEST score were independently related with the combined endpoint (P < 0.01), and there was no effect modification by age for these associations, suggesting that they may be valid in children and in adults as well. Only T lesions were associated with the rate of eGFR loss in the whole cohort, whereas C showed this association only in patients not treated with immunosuppression. In separate prognostic analyses, the whole set of pathology lesions provided a gain in discrimination power over the clinical variables alone, which was similar at 5 years (+2.0%) and for the whole follow-up (+1.8%). A similar benefit was observed for risk reclassification analyses (+2.7% and +2.4%)., Conclusion: Long-term follow-up analyses of the VALIGA cohort showed that the independent relationship between kidney biopsy findings and the risk of progression towards kidney failure in IgAN remains unchanged across all age groups and decades after the renal biopsy., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.)

Background: Complement is thought to play a role in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), though the activating mechanisms are unknown. This study focused on the gene expression of CD46 and CD55, two key molecules for regulating C3 convertase activity of lectin and alternative complement pathways at a cellular level., Methods: The transcriptional expression in peripheral white blood cells (WBCs) of CD46 and CD55 was investigated in 157 patients enrolled by the Validation of the Oxford Classification of IgAN group, looking for correlations with clinical and pathology features and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) modifications from renal biopsy to sampling. Patients had a previous median follow-up of 6.4 (interquartile range 2.8-10.7) years and were divided into progressors and non-progressors according to the median value of their velocity of loss of renal function per year (-0.41 mL/min/1.73 m2/year)., Results: CD46 and CD55 messenger RNA (mRNA) expression in WBCs was not correlated with eGFR values or proteinuria at sampling. CD46 mRNA was significantly correlated with eGFR decline rate as a continuous outcome variable (P = 0.014). A significant difference was found in CD46 gene expression between progressors and non-progressors (P = 0.013). CD46 and CD55 mRNA levels were significantly correlated (P < 0.01), although no difference between progressors and non-progressors was found for CD55 mRNA values. The prediction of progression was increased when CD46 and CD55 mRNA expressions were added to clinical data at renal biopsy (eGFR, proteinuria and mean arterial blood pressure) and Oxford MEST-C (mesangial hypercellularity, endocapillary hypercellularity, segmental glomerulosclerosis, tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, presence of any crescents) score., Conclusions: Patients with progressive IgAN showed lower expression of mRNA encoding for the complement inhibitory protein CD46, which may implicate a defective regulation of C3 convertase with uncontrolled complement activation., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.)