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Accurate landslide displacement prediction has great practical significance for mitigating geohazards. Traditional deterministic forecasting methods can provide only a single point value and cannot give the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecast, thereby failing to provide information on predictive confidence. This study applied interval prediction for landslide displacement. Taking the Tanjiahe landslide of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example and considering the impact of seasonal variations in reservoir level and rainfall, the uncertainties associated with landslide displacement prediction were quantified into prediction intervals (PIs) by a bootstrapped least-square support vector machine (LSSVM) method (B-LSSVM). The proposed method consists of three steps: First, the LSSVM and bootstrapping were combined to estimate the true regression means of landslide displacement and the variance with respect to model misspecification uncertainties. Second, a new LSSVM model optimized by a genetic algorithm (GA) was implemented to estimate the noise variance. Finally, the point prediction was derived from the regression means, and the PIs were constructed by combining the regression mean, the model variance, and the noise variance. We applied the proposed method to predict the displacement of four GPS monitoring points of the Tanjiahe landslide, and we comprehensively compared the prediction accuracy and the quality of the constructed PIs with benchmark methods. A simulation and performance comparison showed that the proposed method is a promising technique for providing accurate and reliable prediction results for landslide displacement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The well-known slide-prone red-stratum mudstones in the Three Gorges reservoir (TGR) area are currently undergoing sharp changes in (i) water level driven by the impounding/discharging operation of the Three Gorges dam and (ii) the rain/water H+ concentration driven by recent rapid industrial/agricultural development, and these changes are expected to impact geohazards. This potential impact emphasizes the importance of understanding the role of pH in the drying-wetting disintegration of red-stratum mudstones. Although many investigations have focused on the role of pH in mudstone disintegration, the red-stratum mudstones in the TGR area differ from mudstones elsewhere, and the role of pH has seldom been studied in these rocks. This work adds to the limited body of research by (1) experimentally investigating the possible role of pH in red-stratum mudstone drying-wetting disintegration and (2) revealing the micromechanisms responsible for this role. In the experiment, six disintegration performance indexes and two mechanical indexes, i.e. particle size gradation, slake durability index, decay constant, surface energy, box dimension, fractal dimension, cohesion and friction angle, were monitored throughout the disintegration process. A tri-piecewise linear fractal model is proposed to better describe the particle size distribution. This research shows that the acid enhancements stimulate the disintegration of red-stratum mudstones and significantly affect shear strength. In comparison, alkaline environments inhibit the mudstone fragmentation and slightly degrade the shear strength. Two possible micromechanisms and three potential effects of acid or alkaline agents are presented to account for the role of pH. The findings provide insights into the potential geohazard impacts of sharp changes in the exposure environment (i.e., water level and H+ concentration) of the red-stratum mudstones in the TGR area. • Established a multiphysics database of pH versus disintegration performance indexes. • Revealed the role of pH in drying-wetting disintegration of red-stratum mudstones. • Clarified the micromechanisms of the pH role in red-stratum mudstone disintegration. • Proposed a tri-piecewise linear fractal model of particle size distribution. • Challenged the previous understanding of the pH role/mechanisms in disintegration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• New energy-evolution perspective is provided on failure mechanism of b4 mudstones. • Energy-parameters estimation methods under cyclic loading-unloading are presented. • A parameter to measure proportion of CDE is introduced, which is defined as CDE/TAE. • Influence of stress path on mechanical properties and energy evolution is revealed. Purplish-red mudstones from Section Four of the Badong Formation are broadly distributed in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) and exhibit special characteristics distinct from the mudstones elsewhere. This paper investigates the failure mechanism of such mudstones from a new perspective of energy evolution. Initially, the complete failure process under three stress paths (i.e., loading, unloading, and cyclic loading-unloading) is monitored, and the related data are acquired. Methods to estimate the energy parameters (i.e., total absorption energy (TAE), cumulative dissipation energy (CDE), and elastic strain energy (ESE)) under cyclic loading-unloading conditions are presented. Two new parameters, namely, the proportion of CDE (PCDE) and proportion of elastic energy dissipation (PEED), are introduced. Using the data, the mechanical properties and energy properties are analyzed, and the energy evolution is revealed. The results show that the failure mechanism under the three stress paths is different from an energy evolution perspective. The mechanical parameters deteriorate under unloading in comparison with those under loading. The increase in the CDE is similar to that in the TAE, and the ESE-strain relationship features a step-shaped rise. For cyclic loading-unloading, the TAE and the PCDE nearly linearly increase with cycle times. This work provides a new perspective on the failure mechanism of the purplish-red mudstones from the TGRA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impoundment of the 660-km long reservoir behind the huge Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydropower station, increased regional seismicity and reactivated severe geohazards. Before the reservoir filling was initiated in 2003, the region had approximately two earthquakes per year with magnitudes between 3.0 and 4.9; after the full impoundment in 2008, approximately 14 earthquakes per year occurred with magnitudes between 3.0 and 5.4. In addition, hundreds of landslides were reactivated and are now in a state of intermittent creep. Many landslides exhibit step-like annual pattern of displacement in response to quasi-regular variations in seasonal rainfall and reservoir level. Additional problems include rock avalanches, impulse waves and debris flows. The seriousness of these events motivated numerous studies that resulted in 1) Better insight into the behavior and evolution mechanism of geohazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA); 2) Implementation of monitoring and early-warning systems of geohazards; and 3) Design and construction of preventive countermeasures including lattice anchors, stabilizing piles, rock bolts, drainage canals and tunnels, and huge revetments. This paper reviews the hydro-geologic setting of TGRA geohazards, examines their occurrence and evolution in the past few decades, offers insight learned from extensive research on TGRA geohazards, and suggests topics for future research to address the remaining challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Three Gorges Reservoir area, one of the most landslide-prone areas in China, is characterized by widely distributed deep-seated landslides exhibiting creep deformation due to rainfall and reservoir fluctuation. Thresholds, which are a key component for a reliable landslide early warning system, are still lacking for the prediction of movements of deep-seated reservoir landslides with creep deformation because information about reservoir fluctuation indicators is lacking, uncertainty is ignored, and binary output is provided. The risk threshold, defined as the tolerance criteria for risks that will lead to action, is an effective measure of the degree of uncertainty. In the present study, a hybrid approach utilizing kernel density estimation, a copula function, and the value at risk is proposed for the estimation of the risk threshold for the Baishuihe Landslide, a typical deep-seated landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Historical observations over approximately 15 years including rainfall, reservoir fluctuation, and landslide velocity were used to extract the risk threshold. A three-level risk threshold describing the minimum magnitudes of rainfall and reservoir fluctuation for changing the landslide movement state under three confidence levels was developed. A three-level risk response procedure, including risk responses in yellow alert, orange alert, and red alert, is proposed for risk management. Given its successful application, the present approach can be used to estimate the risk threshold for deep-seated landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slip zone soils play a crucial role in the evolution of landslides. In this paper, slip zone soils of the Huangtupo Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, which is an ancient landslide affected by water level fluctuation, are taken as an example to research the influence of wetting–drying cycles on soil properties. The mercury intrusion porosimetry test is used to study the soil's microstructure, while the triaxial test is used to measure the mechanical parameters. The experimental results indicate that the wetting–drying cycles can change the micropore structures and macro-mechanical properties of the soils. Meanwhile, it is demonstrated that there is a certain relationship between the macro- and micro-properties. From the microcosmic perspective, the fractal structure unit formed in the long-term geological environment is the key factor affecting the mechanical properties of the slip zone soils. Then, based on fractal theory, a weakening model of slip zone soils during wetting–drying cycles is proposed. The correctness and reliability of the model are verified by the mechanical parameters from triaxial tests. Finally, it is indicated that the weakening model can be used to forecast the weakening coefficient of slip zone soils under wetting–drying action, which results from the periodic fluctuations of the reservoir level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]