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Zigui Basin is a major landslide-prone region in the Three Gorges Reservoir region of China, and the stabilizing pile is an effective and widely employed countermeasure to reinforce landslides in this region. However, stabilizing piles are mostly designed using deterministic and stability-oriented methods, which generally ignore the system performance and cost-effectiveness. Using the Majiagou landslide reinforced with stabilizing piles as a case study, a probabilistic multi-objective optimization framework for the design of stabilizing piles is proposed and illustrated. Specifically, performance objectives related to failure probability, system robustness and life-cycle cost of the landslide-stabilizing pile system with feasible designs are evaluated, then the best compromised design is obtained by means of Pareto optimality. Expert knowledge and professional judgment are required to set necessary restrictions and finally determine the optimal design. The results show that there is a better design of stabilizing piles than the existing one, with which acceptable reinforcement effectiveness, compromised life-cycle cost and robust system performance can be realized. The optimal design will also vary with the concerned performance objectives and knowledge-based judgment. Further relationships and interpretations between design parameters and system responses are discussed through parametric analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations of reservoir water level and seasonal precipitation have resulted in significant movement and destabilization of landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region of China since reservoir impoundment in 2003. An example is the Baijiabao landslide, a large, actively creeping landslide located in the steep lower valley of the Xiangxi River, about 55 km upstream of the TGR dam in the Yangtze River. Twelve years of monthly monitoring at four GPS stations and routine, monthly field observations show cumulative GPS displacements as large as >1.5 m and widely developed ground cracks. GPS monitoring results show that most movement takes place in rapid steps that coincide with the rainy season and the period of annual reservoir drawdown, with particularly large steps in 2009, 2012 and 2015. This step-like pattern of displacement is also shown by daily data from an automatic monitoring system installed in 2017. The total period of acceleration shown by these daily data was about six weeks long, with rapid movement starting during rapid reservoir drawdown, and terminating when the reservoir began to rise again. In particular, most of the 2018 displacement occurred in only two weeks. Different subzones of the landslide move at different rates and exhibit different features of deformation. The neighborhood rough set theory is used to identify the triggering factors responsible for landslide deformation. The most important triggering factors vary between different sites, data types and the time interval used to define them. The surface deformation and ground crack widening are controlled by the combination of rainfall and variations in the reservoir water levels, whereas the deformation of the sliding zone is most sensitive to the latter. The results show that daily data are needed to capture important, short-term landslide responses. The neighborhood rough set theory for determination of triggering factors is suggested for deformation prediction, stability evaluation, and prevention and control of reservoir landslides in this and other regions. • Spatiotemporal deformation characteristics of Baijiabao landslide over a twelve-year period are analyzed in detail. • Different acceleration periods and threshold hydraulic conditions are observed from daily and monthly monitoring data. • Neighborhood rough set theory is used to identify the triggering factors responsible for landslide deformation. • The most important triggering factors vary between different sites, data types and the time interval used to define them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Huangtupo landslide is the volumetrically largest, most complex, and economically most significant landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. Detailed information about the character and dynamics of this tractive landslide is available because of access provided by a unique, 908-meter in situ research tunnel, augmented by long-term data provided by an extensive monitoring system for ground water levels, rainfall, and in situ deformation. Three major rupture surfaces plus 12 interlayer sliding zones (weak layers) were recognized during tunnel excavation, which also provided access and samples that establish a complex, multistage deformation history. Data from the in situ monitoring system shows that the toe of the landslide is creeping at a steady annual rate of about 25-30 mm, but at a slower rate of about 12 mm/year near the crown. However, the monthly creep rates are variable, being highest during May-August when rainfall is heavy and reservoir levels are low. Displacement-depth curves in the HZ6 borehole inclinometer establish that the creep of Slump Mass I# is most rapid above a depth of 37 m, where a major rupture zone occurs immediately above bedrock. Engineered defense structures along the toe of Huangtupo landslide can improve its stability to some extent. The effect of rapid changes of the reservoir level on landslide stability should be considered in reservoir management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The salts contained in water can gradually accumulate in pore networks of rocks under wetting-drying cycles, which could cause rock deterioration. The salt-induced damage under this cyclic process can result in dynamically evolving mechanical and hydraulic properties of the rock, which is relevant to many rock-related engineering activities and geological hazards. In this study, the structure damage and permeability evolution of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) sandstone subjected to wetting-drying cycles with salt solution were investigated by a series of multiscale experiments. The results showed that the salt solution has a significant impact on the physical properties of TGR sandstone during the wetting-drying process. With increasing wetting-drying cycles, two typical macroscopic damage modes in form of surface peeling and internal cracking were observed. Various physical parameters indicated that the internal structure of the TGR sandstone experienced two stages: 1) Salt accumulation and new crack formation stage and 2) Crack propagation stage. This variation also profoundly affected the permeability of the TGR sandstone. Specifically, the permeability of TGR sandstone decreased slightly at first due to blocked seepage channels by crystals before cycle 5, followed by a slow growth until the 15th cycle and a rapid increase after the 15th cycle. Cubic and exponential functions showed good performances to describe the evolution features of permeability with porosity and wetting-drying cycles, respectively. The deterioration mechanism was further elucidated by an evaporation test. This test indicated that the salt solution was more likely to crystallize in narrow pores and expectedly exert pressure enough to crack the pores, contributing to the structure damage feature and the permeability enhancement. These findings and results in this study deepen our understanding of salt-induced rock deterioration mechanism under the wetting-drying cycles and would be meaningful for rock engineering safety and geological disaster forecast in complex groundwater environments. • Structure damage of TGR sandstone by salt solution under wetting-drying cycles is systematically revealed. • Permeability enhancement of TGR sandstone is functionalized by porosity and wetting-drying cycle. • Salt-induced deterioration mechanism is elucidated by its crystallization features of location and pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, a large number of bank destruction occur in the reservoir area under the effect of water fluctuation, which may be lead to reservoir accumulative landslide geological hazards finally. The paper conducted the bank destruction forecasting study for accumulative landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China utilizing back-propagation (BP) neural network approach. A representative scenario of Jinle landslide is then taken for analysis purposes. On the basis of the existing data sets of bank destruction cases, the BP neural network forecasting model and the corresponding programs for bank destruction are both presented, whose forecasting result is validated by two independent approaches, namely empirical method and numerical modeling method. Furthermore, the BP neural network model had obvious advantages over the convention approaches in the aspects of the fast calculation speed and high convenience. According to the bank destruction forecasting scale presented above, the corresponding revetment measures can be proposed to prevent the occurring of the bank destruction, whose effectiveness has been further validated by the actual engineering practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five large and many small landslides are developed in Jurassic strata along the lower reaches of Xiangxi River, where interbedded weak and hard bedrock layers foster the development of landslides with a "stair-step" sliding surface. The paper investigates the evolution characteristics of these landslides and presents a novel forecasting model for their displacements. The distribution characteristics and behavior of landslides developed along Xiangxi River is revealed by the database of landslides in the larger Zigui basin, of which this area is part. Most landslides occur at rather low elevations of <300 m and in areas of moderate rainfall. The geological evolution of landslides in the Xiangxi River valley can be divided into four stages, beginning with anticline formation, followed by valley incision, then by weathering and erosion, and culminating in formation of the colluvial landslides. The accumulative displacement curves of landslides with a stair-step sliding surface in Xiangxi River region also present obvious, step-like characteristics. A novel GA-CEEMD-RF algorithm was developed to predict the displacement of these stair-step landslides, which helps to define the combination of induced factors and weak stableness of prediction results using a single displacement prediction model and the multi-field monitoring data. • The distribution characteristics of landslides developed along lower reaches of Xiangxi River was revealed. • Interbedded weak and hard bedrock layers foster the development of landslides with a "stair-step" sliding surface. • The geological evolution of landslides in the Xiangxi River valley can be divided into four stages. • A novel GA-CEEMD-RF algorithm was developed to predict the displacement of stair-step landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jurassic facility-sliding strata have been identified as a fundamental factor affecting the occurrence of rainfall-reservoir induced landslides in western Hubei Province, China Three Gorges Reservoir area. Regional landslide susceptibility mapping is the most effective method for landslide prediction and mitigation. To solve the current problem of identifying the true landslides and non-landslides, a novel hybrid model based on the two steps self-organizing mapping-random forest (two steps SOM-RF) algorithm is proposed. The identified high and very high susceptibility zones are located within the hydro-fluctuation belt and regions with low altitude based on the datasets before 2014. Deviation and variance of other ten datasets are generated to evaluate the reliability of the maps for the problem of unbalanced sample sizes. Two typical landslides occurred in 2017 have been found in the very high susceptibility zone, which emphasized the validity of susceptibility mapping. To verify the effectiveness of selecting true landslides and non-landslides based on two steps SOM model, recorded landslides and non-landslides randomly chosen from landslide-free areas are put into the single RF model for comparison. The receiver operating characteristic curve and Accuracy index are applied to compare the performance of the landslide susceptibility maps created based on two steps SOM-RF and the single RF model. The results demonstrate that the consideration of true landslides and non-landslides is effective in producing a more accurate landslide susceptibility map with superior prediction skill and higher reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Zigui basin is one of the most landslide-prone areas where thousands of landslides are distributed. Performing the landslide susceptibility mapping is a heated issue in the area. Whereas, whether the random selection of the landslides or non-landslides grid cells are reasonable in research of landslide susceptibility mapping is the existence problem nowadays. Based on the two step cluster (TSC) algorithm and the self-organizing mapping - random forest (SOM-RF) model, a novel hybrid model is proposed to overcome the above drawbacks in this study. Rough set (RS) theory is employed as an attribute reduction tool to identify the significant influencing factors of landslides, and SOM is used to produce a preliminary landslide susceptibility mapping. Two step cluster algorithm is applied in telling apart the most reasonable True-Positive (TP) from landslide grid cells in high-susceptibility zones and the False-Positive (FP) in low-susceptibility zones. Afterwards, the TP and FP are imported into the RF model as samples to produce the improved landslide susceptibility mapping. The proposed method is utilized to develop landslide susceptibility mapping in the Zigui basin. Compared with the susceptibility mapping produced by RF model, which selects landslides and non-landslides grid cells randomly, the results of TSC and SOM-RF model demonstrates to have the superior prediction skill and higher reliability in landslides susceptibility mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of wetting and drying cycles (WDC) on the strength weakening of typical rocks in soft and hard interbedded rock masses is vital to comprehend the mechanism of numerous bank slope failures in soft and hard interbedded strata induced by water level fluctuations. How WDC affect the strength of intact rocks in red stratum of the Badong Formation, a typical sliding-prone interbedded stratum in the Three Gorges area, is a topic worthy of comprehensive investigation. In this study, the effects of WDC on the physical and strength parameters of silty mudstone and silty sandstone were examined by performing a series of experiments on a total of 116 rock samples. Models of strength weakening were developed for the two rock types to express the relations between the strength deterioration coefficient (ratio of the weakened and initial value of strength parameters) and the number of WDC. The results indicate that treatment with WDC causes increases in the water absorption rate, and decreases in longitudinal wave velocity, tensile strength, cohesion and internal friction angle for both silty mudstone and silty sandstone samples with the rate of change decreasing with an increasing number of WDC; the variations in physical and strength parameters are larger for silty mudstone compared with silty sandstone; the effects of WDC on tensile strength and cohesion are higher than on internal friction angle for the studied rock types; Intergranular cracks and intragranular cracks were observed to increase with the number of WDC, evolution mode of rock microstructures was proposed, and the main weakening mechanisms induced by WDC was summarized as microcracks growth by mineral expansion and contraction, which weaken the strength of the studied rocks with the impact depending mainly on the mineral contents and microstructures in rocks. Finally, the established strength weakening models were applied in the numerical model to investigate the influence of WDC on the strength of rock mass with silty mudstone and silty sandstone interbedded layers in the Badong Formation. The obtained results provide useful guidance to reasonably evaluate the long-term stability of soft and hard interbedded bank slopes in reservoir area. • Typical rocks in a interbedded red stratum were sampled from the field. • Experiments were performed on 116 rock samples under wetting and drying cycles. • Effect on tensile strength and cohesion are higher than on internal friction angle. • Mineral expansion, contraction and dissolution induces weakening of rocks. • The test data were used to study strength weakening of interbedded rock mass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]