Search

Quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBOs) in thirteen atmospheric general circulation models forced with both observed and annually repeating sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are evaluated. In most models the QBO period is close to, but shorter than, the observed period of 28 months. Amplitudes are within ±20% of the observed QBO amplitude at 10 hPa, but typically about half of that observed at lower altitudes (50 and 70 hPa). For almost all models, the oscillation's amplitude profile shows an overall upward shift compared to reanalysis and its meridional extent is too narrow. Asymmetry in the duration of eastward and westward phases is reasonably well captured, though not all models replicate the observed slowing of the descending westward shear. Westward phases are generally too weak, and most models have an eastward time mean wind bias throughout the depth of the QBO. The intercycle period variability is realistic and in some models is enhanced in the experiment with observed SSTs compared to the experiment with repeated annual cycle SSTs. Mean periods are also sensitive to this difference between SSTs, but only when parametrized non‐orographic gravity wave (NOGW) sources are coupled to tropospheric parameters and not prescribed with a fixed value. Overall, however, modelled QBOs are very similar whether or not the prescribed SSTs vary interannually. A portrait of the overall ensemble performance is provided by a normalized grading of QBO metrics. To simulate a QBO, all but one model used parametrized NOGWs, which provided the majority of the total wave forcing at altitudes above 70 hPa in most models. Hence the representation of NOGWs either explicitly or through parametrization is still a major uncertainty underlying QBO simulation in these present‐day experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) is a model intercomparison programme that specifically targets simulation of the QBO in current global climate models. Eleven of the models or model versions that participated in a QBOi intercomparison study have upper boundaries in or above the mesosphere and therefore simulate the region where the stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) is the dominant mode of variability of zonal winds in the tropical upper stratosphere. Comparisons of the SAO simulations in these models are presented here. These show that the model simulations of the amplitudes and phases of the SAO in zonal‐mean zonal wind near the stratopause agree well with the information derived from available observations. However, most of the models simulate time‐average zonal winds that are more westward than determined from observations, in some cases by several tens of m·s–1. Validation of wave activity in the models is hampered by the limited observations of tropical waves in the upper stratosphere but suggests a deficit of eastward forcing either by large‐scale waves, such as Kelvin waves, or by gravity waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]