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Abstract: Dispersal kernels are the standard method in biology for describing and predicting the relationship between dispersal and distance. Statistically fitted dispersal kernels allow observations of a limited number of dispersal events to be extrapolated across a wider landscape, and form the basis of a wide range of theories and methods in ecology, evolution and conservation. Genetic parentage data are an increasingly common source of dispersal information, particularly for species where dispersal is difficult to observe directly. In particular, parentage analysis is now routinely applied to coral reef fish, whose larvae can potentially disperse over many kilometres, and are too small to track in situ. It is not straightforward to estimate dispersal kernels from parentage data, and existing methods all have substantial limitations. These include the omission of important population processes such as density‐dependent mortality, and data on unassigned juveniles. Here we develop and proof a new likelihood estimator for fitting dispersal kernels to parentage data, applying it to simulated parentage datasets for coral reef fish on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The method incorporates a series of factors not previously considered in other methods: the partial sampling of adults and juveniles on sampled sites; the existence of unassigned dispersers from unsampled habitat patches; and post‐settlement processes (e.g. density‐dependent mortality) that follow dispersal but precede parentage sampling. Including these additional factors requires an estimate of adult populations on unsampled habitat patches, but the result is a superior estimate of dispersal kernels and mean dispersal distances. Our power analyses suggest that the parentage datasets currently available for reef fishes are large enough to fit accurate dispersal kernels. Based on the analyses in one particular region of the GBR, parentage sampling should be distributed equally between adults and juveniles, and should sample more than 3% of the adult population. However, while the resulting dispersal kernels offer reasonable estimates of mean dispersal, they fail to capture important variation in realistic dispersal patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near-shore marine environments are increasingly subjected to reduced water quality, and their ability to withstand it is critical to their persistence. The potential role marine reserves may play in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality has received little attention. We investigated the spatial and temporal variability in live coral and macro-algal cover and water quality during moderate and major flooding events of the Fitzroy River within the Keppel Bay region of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park from 2007 to 2013. We used 7 years of remote sensing data on water quality and data from long-term monitoring of coral reefs to quantify exposure of coral reefs to flood plumes. We used a distance linear model to partition the contribution of abiotic and biotic factors, including zoning, as drivers of the observed changes in coral and macro-algae cover. Moderate flood plumes from 2007 to 2009 did not affect coral cover on reefs in the Keppel Islands, suggesting the reef has intrinsic resistance against short-term exposure to reduced water quality. However, from 2009 to 2013, live coral cover declined by ∼50% following several weeks of exposure to turbid, low salinity water from major flood plume events in 2011 and subsequent moderate events in 2012 and 2013. Although the flooding events in 2012 and 2013 were smaller than the flooding events between 2007 to 2009, the ability of the reefs to withstand these moderate floods was lost, as evidenced by a ∼20% decline in coral cover between 2011 to 2013. Although zoning (no-take reserve or fished) was identified a significant driver of coral cover, we recorded consistently lower coral cover on reserve reefs than on fished reefs throughout the study period and significantly lower cover in 2011. Our findings suggest that even reefs with an inherent resistance to reduced water quality are not able to withstand repeated disturbance events. The limitations of reserves in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality on near-shore coral reefs underscores the importance of integrated management approaches that combine effective land-based management with networks of no-take reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parks and protected areas have been instrumental in reducing anthropogenic sources of damage in terrestrial and aquatic environments. Pathogen invasion often succeeds physical wounding and injury, yet links between the reduction of damage and the moderation of disease have not been assessed. Here, we examine the utility of no-take marine reserves as tools for mitigating diseases that affect reef-building corals. We found that sites located within reserves had fourfold reductions in coral disease prevalence compared to non-reserve sites (80466 corals surveyed). Of 31 explanatory variables assessed, coral damage and the abundance of derelict fishing line best explained differences in disease assemblages between reserves and non-reserves. Unexpectedly, we recorded significantly higher levels of disease, coral damage, and derelict fishing line in non-reserves with fishing gear restrictions than in those without gear restrictions. Fishers targeting stocks perceived to be less depleted, coupled with enhanced site access from immediately adjacent boat moorings, may explain these unexpected patterns. Significant correlations between the distance from mooring sites and prevalence values for a ciliate disease known to infest wounded tissue (r =-0.65), coral damage (r =-0.64), and the abundance of derelict fishing line (r =-0.85) corroborate this interpretation. This is the first study to link disease with recreational use intensity in a park, emphasizing the need to evaluate the placement of closures and their direct relationship to ecosystem health. Since corals are modular, ecological processes that govern reproductive and competitive fitness are frequently related to colony surface area therefore, even low levels of cumulative tissue loss from progressing diseases pose significant threats to reef coral persistence. Disease mitigation through reductions in physical injury in areas where human activities are concentrated is another mechanism by which protected areas may improve ecosystem resilience in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high‐sediment, high‐nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world‐leading management, including networks of no‐take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40–50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long‐term (12–18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance‐and‐recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea‐surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local‐scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Densities of targeted fishes were higher at sites with recruitment hotspots. [•] Population recovery was enhanced in reserves that contained recruitment hotspots. [•] Reserves primarily protected fishes above the minimum legal size. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]