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Numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities in the Maritime Continent are not as developed as in the midlatitudes. Countries in the region do not develop their own modelling systems; rather they adapt models primarily developed for the midlatitudes. Due to the complexity of processes involved in the region, this adaptation is non‐trivial. In this article the developments made by the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) to implement a convective‐scale NWP system for short‐range weather prediction for Singapore and the surrounding regions are presented. In particular, this article describes the changes to the initial model configuration, which was based on the UKMO's convective‐scale NWP system (the UKV), to produce operational forecasts over this region. Results presented here demonstrate the benefit of convection‐permitting simulations over convection parametrized simulations and show that the model performance is greatly affected by the choice of driving model, the cloud scheme, and the turbulence scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A limited area convection permitting model (CPM) based on the Met Office Unified Model, with a 0.04° (4.4 km) horizontal grid spacing, is used to simulate an entire warm-season of the East Asian monsoon (from April to September 2009). The simulations are compared to rain gauge observations, reanalysis and to a lower resolution regional model with a 0.12° (13.2 km) grid spacing that has a parametrization of subgrid-scale convective clouds and precipitation. The 13.2 km simulation underestimates precipitation intensity, produces rainfall too frequently, and shows evident biases in reproducing the diurnal cycle of precipitation and low-level wind fields. In comparison, the CPM shows significant improvements in the spatial distribution of precipitation intensity, although it overestimates the intensity magnitude and has a wet bias over central eastern China. The diurnal cycle of precipitation over Mei-yu region, southern China and the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the diurnal cycle of low-level winds over both the Mei-yu region and southern China are better simulated by the CPM. Over the Mei-yu region, in both simulations and observations, the local atmospheric instability in the afternoon is favorable for upward motion and rainfall. The CPM receives more sensible heat flux from the surface, has a stronger upward motion, and overestimates water vapor convergence based on moisture budget diagnosis. All these processes help explain the excessive late afternoon rainfall over the Mei-yu region in the CPM simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present generation of global climate models is characterised by insufficient reflection of short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean due to a misrepresentation of clouds. This is a significant concern as it leads to excessive heating of the ocean surface, sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. In this study, we modify cloud microphysics in a recent version of the Met Office's Unified Model and show that choosing a more realistic value for the shape parameter of atmospheric ice crystals, in better agreement with theory and observations, benefits the simulation of short-wave radiation. In the model, for calculating the growth rate of ice crystals through deposition, the default assumption is that all ice particles are spherical in shape. We modify this assumption to effectively allow for oblique shapes or aggregates of ice crystals. Along with modified ice nucleation temperatures, we achieve a reduction in the annual-mean short-wave cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean by up to ∼4 W m -2 and seasonally much larger reductions compared to the control model. By slowing the growth of the ice phase, the model simulates substantially more supercooled liquid cloud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe Global Atmosphere 7.0 and Global Land 7.0 (GA7.0/GL7.0), the latest science configurations of the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model developed for use across weather and climate timescales. GA7.0 and GL7.0 include incremental developments and targeted improvements that, between them, address four critical errors identified in previous configurations: excessive precipitation biases over India, warm and moist biases in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), a source of energy non-conservation in the advection scheme and excessive surface radiation biases over the Southern Ocean. They also include two new parametrisations, namely the UK Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) GLOMAP-mode (Global Model of Aerosol Processes) aerosol scheme and the JULES multi-layer snow scheme, which improve the fidelity of the simulation and were required for inclusion in the Global Atmosphere/Global Land configurations ahead of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In addition, we describe the GA7.1 branch configuration, which reduces an overly negative anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) in GA7.0 whilst maintaining the quality of simulations of the present-day climate. GA7.1/GL7.0 will form the physical atmosphere/land component in the HadGEM3–GC3.1 and UKESM1 climate model submissions to the CMIP6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]