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While carbon offsets in agriculture can play a role in addressing climate change, they are not a perfect substitute for direct emission reductions. As shown in this paper through various arguments and case studies, climate policies in Canada have avoided the use of offsets to be sold in carbon markets, preferring instead to incentivize adoption of best management practices (BMPs) that provide environmental benefits along with climate mitigation benefits. We argue that this is a preferred policy option due to the perils and pitfalls inherent in the measurement and monitoring required to identify offset credits. While an appropriate approach might be to penalize Canadian farmers for any emissions their activities cause, this may do more harm than good. Canadian agricultural production is highly efficient and technologically advanced; therefore, reductions in Canada's contribution to the global food supply will result in less‐efficient production occurring elsewhere (i.e., leakage) that increases global greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2020, Canada released its national strengthened climate change plan with focus on cutting energy waste, cutting pollution, and build clean industrial advantage. Two weeks later, the national hydrogen strategy was announced urging all involved stakeholders to delve into the deployment of large-scale clean energy technologies. Ontario, Canada's largest economy and leading manufacturing province, it releases its provincial hydrogen strategy and roadmap later this year. represents a viable solution for reducing CO2 emissions from large industry pollutants by integrating our innovative copper chlorine (Cu-Cl) thermochemical water splitting cycle with the energy intensive and polluting industry of cement manufacturing. The paper highlights the nexus between the production process of two valuable commodities, namely cement and Hydrogen, and the role their integration introduces for increased energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, as most of the thermal energy demand in cement manufacturing is utilized during the kiln processes, the paper proposes several energy mix scenarios involving the use of hydrogen to partially meet the kiln's heat demand. The results from these scenarios show the possibility of achieving over 15% to 19.6% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to coal-based kiln production, along with reduced recurring cost for operating the kiln. On-site large-scale hydrogen production, mixed with natural gas, was found to be financially viable and environmentally advantageous alternative to power the kilns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a framework for a financial, economic, and stakeholder analysis of a residential rooftop solar net-metering program. The empirical focus of the paper is the net-metering program in Ontario, Canada, but the methodology is applicable to evaluating other public programs. The results highlight that without the Federal Government's subsidy for the initial investment cost, net-metered solar systems are not financially viable for representative households. Moreover, the stakeholder analysis reveals that for each additional net-metered system installed in Ontario, non-net-metered households experience financial losses of six times the benefits to the net-metered households. The net losses to the Federal Government of Canada and the Canadian economy are five and nine times the benefit to the net-metered households, respectively. The only stakeholder who benefits marginally is the Government of Ontario. In terms of environmental benefits, our estimate of the cost of greenhouse gas abatement by residential net-metered solar is 325 CAD per ton of CO 2 , which is significantly higher than the current (65 CAD in 2023) and future (170 CAD by 2030) national carbon price set by the Government of Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are taking a leadership role in addressing global climate change and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but policy innovations are needed to help cities move from goals to outcomes. Pilot projects are one means by which cities are experimenting with new ways of governing and financing climate change mitigation. In this paper, we develop a framework for understanding the role of pilot projects in urban policy innovation: their emergence and rationale, and the means by which they ultimately scale up and out to reduce GHG emissions. We use this framework to evaluate a pilot project for retrofitting social housing buildings in Toronto. We find the initial pilot project helped address the challenges of pursuing deep retrofits of social housing. Scaling these lessons up to the city level required overcoming challenges to financing and coordinating a larger project; scaling out to the provincial level revealed institutional and political obstacles to pursuing the co‐benefits of deep building retrofits in social housing. Bridging agents play an important role in both scaling processes. The analysis reveals the additive nature of urban policy innovation and the dynamic interplay of change agents and institutional and political context in innovation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential energy efficiency improvements have a great potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Evidences suggest that there is an underinvestment in residential energy efficiency improvements, pointing out the existence of "energy efficiency gap". To address this in Canada, the government has introduced home energy efficiency audit programmes since 1998, to encourage homeowners to get their homes audited professionally for energy efficiency and implement recommended upgrades. Using the 2011 and 2013 Household and Environment Surveys, this paper investigates whether household environmental behaviours have played roles in determining household participation in these audit programmes during the last 10 years. To the best of our knowledge, no study in Canada has examined the association between household participation in other pro-environmental activities and energy efficiency audit programmes. We find that pro-environmental behaviours such as water conservation, composting, recycling, participation in unpaid conservation activities, purchase of green goods, carrying own grocery shopping bags and lowering heating temperatures in winter nights are good predictors of household participation in energy efficiency audit programmes. Given that these other pro-environmental activities demonstrate environmental awareness of the households, our results suggest that besides the financial incentives, a more strategic and holistic approach to environmental programmes is both needed and possible when designing policies addressing residential energy efficiency gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For over two decades, municipal climate progress has been inventoried and analysed using a common reporting framework. While useful for highlighting the extent of municipal engagement in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, we know little about how comprehensive this reporting framework is. Are municipal governments engaging in mitigation activities outside this framework? And what about climate adaptation activity for which no long-standing milestone reporting framework has existed? Based on results from a national survey of municipal governments in Canada, the paper reveals that municipal governments are engaged in many climate activities and processes that common inventories and reporting systems do not capture. The paper argues that these ‘in between activities’ – the not-yet counted climate actions that take place between and outside of milestone initiation and completion – have practical importance for future climate action and theoretical importance by complementing growing evidence about the nature of municipal climate activities and climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy-makers are investigating ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of the transportation sector. Many government agencies have studied the effects of pavement type and characteristics on fuel consumption. Such models, valid for a particular set of simulation conditions, suggest that rigid pavements perform better than flexible pavements. However, it is unclear how this type of model can be applied at the scale of a realistic road network. This paper proposes a statistical approach to assess the relative importance of pavement type and characteristics on fuel consumption of heavy vehicle traffic by considering the specificities of meteorological conditions, heavy vehicles, and driver behaviours. A case study in Canada showed that the potential advantage of using rigid pavements was offset by cold climate effects and the consideration of a realistic statistical payload distribution. Road roughness accounted on average for 1.1% of total fuel consumption, with an increased value of 1.9% in January. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The government of Quebec (Canada) is trying to find a useful outlet for the mixed waste glass pilling up in its landfills. One solution to consider is the use of fine glass powder from mixed waste glass as alternative cementitious materials (ACM) in concrete, using an open-loop circular-economy principle. To quantify the environmental feasibility of this concept, life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, in combination with a real case study (i.e., a concrete sidewalk in Montreal, Canada) are both assessed. More specifically, two different scenarios are compared, the business-as-usual (BAU) concrete production model, and a glass powder (GP) concrete production process model. All modeling efforts are performed using SimaPro 8.2 software, the Ecoinvent 3.2 database and the IMPACT 2002 + impact method. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation, in addition to different sensitivity analyses, are carried out to assess the influence of data uncertainty and key parameter changes, such as the distance from suppliers, potential lifetime extension of the concrete, and possible particulate emissions during GP production. Results show the environmental benefits of using GP as an ACM in terms of every indicator. Moreover, the significant contribution of cement production in the environmental burden of concrete is noted. It appears as the main hotspot in most midpoint indicators, and in all four endpoint indicators. It is especially highlighted as a global warming indicator, with 74% of the greenhouse gasses (GHG) related to cement production for the BAU scenario and 68% for the GP scenario. The emissions of particles into the atmosphere (such as CO 2 , NOx, and SOx) from the clinker kiln chimney plays a major role in the overall environmental impact of concrete production. Another key result is the importance of transportation distance of the base materials, which could reverse the conclusion. The originality of this paper relies on the environmental assessment of the up-cycling of GP as a supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) in concrete. Indeed, this study allows for a better understanding of environmental impact of concrete and highlights the extent to which environmental benefits remain when mixed waste glass is used in an open-loop circular-economy context. At a larger scale, this study aims to encourage all municipalities/government that are struggling with common waste – such as mixed waste glass -- to find industrial symbioses at a local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests for the applicability of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis at the Canadian and provincial/territorial levels using greenhouse gas emissions as an indicator for environmental degradation. The hypothesis is tested using provincial and territorial panel data from 1990 to 2014. The results vary depending on the econometric estimation method. The pooled regression results are mixed, with the EKC hypothesis confirmed at the Canadian level and in half of the provinces and territories. However, the fixed-effects regression results confirm the EKC hypothesis at the Canadian level and in all provinces and territories. The results also highlight the significance of technological change and province/territory specific characteristics in determining the level of greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road transportation is responsible for 23% of Canada's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory due to complete dependence on fossil fuels. Decarbonizing the transportation sector using alternative energy sources is one of the most effective strategies to achieve GHG emission reduction targets. Alternative transportation modes such as electric and hydrogen fuel cell based vehicles are considered as scalable technologies for decarbonizing the transportation sector. However, there is a knowledge gap for a systematic investigation approach on regional viability of aforementioned vehicles. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the financial feasibility and environmental impact of the electric light duty vehicles (LD-EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell light duty vehicles (LD-HFCVs) use in Canada. A life cycle thinking based approach has been proposed to compare costs and emissions of transportation based on electric and Hydrogen with traditional fossil fuel. The carbon offset saving was used to quantify the economic impact of GHG reduction. The carbon taxes for selected provinces were recommended as a potential policy implementation to reduce transport based GHG emissions. The results indicate that the provinces with low emission factor electric grids have a higher potential for LD-EV based transportation system in terms of costs and footprint. Presently LD-HFCVs are less desirable due to high purchase and operational cost. Development of a Hydrogen based transportation system through the production of cost effective hydrogen is preferable for provinces with a higher emission factor electric grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses energy links between Canada, the United States, and Mexico and the state of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-reduction policies. A review of GHG reduction policies reveals fragmented approaches with political stalemates at the national level. Closely integrated North American energy markets are potentially changing in different directions. While Canada is contemplating more diversification of energy trade, the United States is increasingly relying on domestic supply of energy and will soon be a net exporter of energy. The paper argues that carbon pricing needs to be harmonized in conjunction with trade flows and elaborates on how current, fragmented carbon pricing initiatives could be turned into a more harmonized carbon pricing system. It provides arguments in support of a binding absolute emissions cap with limited safety valves and price floors in a North American emissions-trading program. It also discusses lessons learned from the EU GHG emissions-trading system and their implications for the design of North American cap-and-trade regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of sub-global participation in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, this paper investigates the effectiveness of a Canada-U.S. emissions bubble under their existing regional trade agreement. It also explores the potential economic impact of carbon tariff harmonization through the implementation of a common Canada-U.S. external border tariff adjustment as a mean to address competitiveness issues. Using a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model the paper finds that the creation of an emission bubble between the two countries could improve efficiency. The findings also suggest that a carbon tariff harmonization policy could give rise to distributional issues among Annex I regions and could fail to mitigate the negative competitiveness impacts of carbon abatement policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote or off-grid communities in Canada primarily rely on diesel generators for the provision of their electricity. Often surrounded by potential renewable resources, they are characterised as the low-hanging fruit of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies. While much is said about the promises of community energy projects, as well as technologies and policy mechanisms for addressing the needs of these communities, little attention has been paid to what communities, themselves, might want for their energy projects and what the implications of those desires might be for both technology development and community energy policies. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring the on-going energy pursuits of a number of remote First Nations communities in British Columbia. It identifies a desire for community self-sufficiency as a primary motivation for engaging with energy projects on the part of the communities and discusses the various meanings and implications of self-sufficiency in the context of community energy projects. These meanings and implications primarily include the two dimensions of material self-sufficiency and political self-determination, the latter of which suggests a view of community energy projects as processes of decolonisation among First Nation communities in British Columbia. It then suggests that the pursuit of this goal is somewhat incongruent with the approach that government and industry have taken in addressing community energy, especially the way in which remote communities are viewed as the low-hanging fruit of various sustainability projects. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Accurate estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and detailed monitoring of the carbon cycle are important for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. On agricultural land, annual herbaceous vegetation is not considered a carbon sink, whereas perennial woody vegetation accumulates biomass over multiple years and does represent a carbon sink. This paper presents a study to estimate aboveground woody carbon stock in 1990 and its annual change from 1990 to 2000 on Canada’s cropland. The cropland was stratified into zones according to soils, climate and cropping systems, within which sample plots were randomly selected and paired aerial photographs corresponding to circa 1990 and 2000 were interpreted to detect changes in perennial woody vegetation such as trees, shrubs, orchards and vineyards. Woody biomass volumes lost as a result of land use change and gained as a result of planting and growth were estimated using species composition and growth rates typical of each zone, as obtained from published literature, forest reports and charts and forestry expert knowledge. Census of agriculture data was used to scale up the sample level results to zone and national levels. Results showed that on Canada’s cropland, the aboveground woody carbon stock in 1990 was 33.7 ± 8.8 Tg. Between 1990 and 2000, the area covered by woody vegetation was affected negatively by removals and positively through planting and natural regeneration, leading to a net reduction in area. There was an annual increase of about 78.3 Gg over all cropland in Canada, with a net decrease in some ecozones. Although this is a comparatively small increase with a large uncertainty, it indicates that changes in woody carbon on cropland in Canada over the 1990–2000 period were relatively insignificant. Further studies may be needed to refine the carbon estimates and reduce uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widely held view is that effective action on climate change requires commitment by national governments to international agreements. Developed nations like Canada and Australia continue to fall short in their commitments to emissions reduction targets established under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Australia refused to ratify its Kyoto commitments until 2008 and Canada withdrew its commitment in 2011. Subnational governments in both countries have been active in developing policy responses to climate change yet remain largely excluded as serious policy partners in national mitigation and adaptation initiatives. This paper utilizes Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework to consider why subnational governments address climate change and the main factors shaping their policy choices. The experiences of the Australian state of Victoria and the Canadian province of Ontario provide examples through which to explore the factors contributing to climate policy opportunities and constraints faced by subnational governments in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Biofuels are being embraced worldwide as sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, because of their potential to promote energy security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while providing opportunities for job creation and economic diversification. However, biofuel production also raises a number of environmental concerns. One of these is the risk of biological invasion, which is a key issue with second generation biofuel crops derived from fast-growing perennial grasses and woody plant species. Many of the most popular second generation crops proposed for cultivation in the U.S. and Canada are not native to North America, and some are known to be invasive. The development of a large-scale biofuel industry on the continent could lead to the widespread introduction, establishment, and spread of invasive plant species if invasive risks are not properly considered as part of biofuel policy. In this paper, we evaluate the risk of biological invasion posed by the emerging second generation biofuel industry in the U.S. and Canada by examining the invasive risk of candidate biofuel plant species, and reviewing existing biofuel policies to determine how well they address the issue of invasive species. We find that numerous potentially invasive plant species are being considered for biofuel production in the U.S. and Canada, yet invasive risk receives little to no attention in these countries' biofuel policies. We identify several barriers to integrating invasive species and biofuel policy, relating to policy analytical capacity, governance, and conflicting policy objectives. We recommend that governments act now, while the second generation biofuel industry is in its infancy, to develop robust and proactive policy addressing invasive risk. Policy options to minimize biological invasions include banning the use of known invasive plant species, ongoing monitoring of approved species, and use of buffer zones around cultivated areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from large industries the Canadian government proposed using a tradable emissions performance standard approach, where the intensity of emissions, rather than the absolute level, is regulated. Unlike a cap and trade system, an emissions performance standard does not guarantee a certain overall level of emission reductions, a fact that has led to significant criticism. However, because of the dynamics of performance standards, they may reduce concerns over reductions in international competitiveness in cases where a country has climate policies that are more aggressive than those of some of its trade partners. Likewise, a performance standard may mesh more efficiently with existing taxes and therefore cause less overall economic impact than an absolute cap and trade system. This paper considers the theoretical arguments for and against such a performance standard system and evaluates it in comparison to a cap and trade system using a dynamic general equilibrium model applied to Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Waste-to-energy provides a solution to two problems: waste management and energy generation. An integrated anaerobic waste valorization process is an interesting option, but because of investments cost and low energy value in the province of Quebec, it is hard for a municipality to commit to that solution. This paper investigated the economic possibilities to manage organic material, organic fraction of municipal solid waste, and municipal wastewater sludge by anaerobic digestion for a 150,000 inhabitant municipality, with consideration to energy generation and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Using the biogas to co-generation solution brings a payback time on investment (PBT) of 3.7years with electricity price at 0.10$Cdn/kWh. The addition of manure from surrounding farms increases the biogas production by 37%, but increases the PBT to 6.8years unless the leftover digestate can be used for agronomic valorization; then it becomes economically advantageous. The natural gas purchasing cost is too low to promote the enrichment of biogas into renewable natural gas. However, this scenario has the lowest energetic payback time (3.3years) and reduces the most greenhouse gas emissions (4261tCO2eq/a). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing industrial output in Canada to a level that will meet the target set out in the Kyoto Protocol. The study uses an ecological–economic Input–Output model combining economic components valued in monetary terms with ecologic components – GHG emissions – expressed in physical terms. Economic and greenhouse gas emissions data for Canada are computed in the same sectoral disaggregation. Three policy scenarios are considered: the first one uses the direct emission coefficients to allocate the reduction in industrial output, while the other two use the direct plus indirect emission coefficients. In the first two scenarios, the reduction in industrial sector output is allocated uniformly across sectors while it is allocated to the 12 largest emitting industries in the last one. The estimated impacts indicate that the results vary with the different allocation methods. The third policy scenario, allocation to the 12 largest emitting sectors, is the most cost effective of the three as the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol reduces Gross Domestic Product by 3.1% compared to 24% and 8.1% in the first two scenarios. Computed economic costs should be considered as upper-bounds because the model assumes immediate adjustment to the Kyoto Protocol and because flexibility mechanisms are not incorporated. The resulting upper-bound impact of the third scenario may seem to contradict those who claim that the Kyoto Protocol would place an unbearable burden on the Canadian economy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper summarizes greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions measurements obtained during several recent studies conducted by Environment Canada, Emissions Research and Measurement Division (ERMD). A variety of heavy-duty vehicles and engines operating on a range of different fuels including diesel, biodiesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), hythane (20% hydrogen, 80% CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and with different advanced aftertreatment technologies were studied by chassis dynamometer testing, engine dynamometer testing or on-road testing. Distance-based emission rates of CO2, CH4, and N2O are reported. Fuel consumption calculated by carbon balance from measured emissions is also reported. The measurement results show, for heavy-duty diesel vehicles without aftertreatment, that while CO2 emissions dominate, CH4 emissions account for between 0% and 0.11% and N2O emissions account for between 0.16% and 0.27% of the CO2-equivalent GHG emissions. Both of the aftertreatment technologies (diesel oxidation catalyst and active regeneration diesel particle filter) studied increased N2O emissions compared to engine out emissions while CH4 emissions remain essentially unchanged. No effect on tailpipe GHG emissions was found with the use of up to 20% biodiesel when the engine was equipped with an oxidation catalyst. Biodiesel use did show some reductions in tailpipe GHG emissions as compared to ULSD without aftertreatment and with the use of a diesel particle filter. Natural gas and hythane also offer decreased GHG emissions (10–20%) at the tailpipe when compared with diesel. Emission factors (gL−1 fuel) for CH4 and N2O are suggested for heavy-duty vehicles fueled with diesel-based fuels and natural gas. These emission factors are substantially lower than those recommended for use by IPCC methodologies for developing national inventories. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Biomass is considered carbon neutral, and displacement of fossil fuel-based power by biomass-based power is one means to mitigate greenhouse gases. Large forest areas in British Columbia (BC), Canada, are infested by the mountain pine beetle (MPB). Dead wood from the infestation is expected to vastly exceed the ability of the pulp and lumber industry to utilize it; current estimates are that 200–600 millionm3 of wood will remain unharvested over the next 20 years. Regions where the damaged wood is not harvested will experience loss of jobs in the forestry sector, increased risk of forest fire hazard, carbon emissions from burned or decaying wood, and uncertainty about timing of replanting since this usually occurs at harvest. This paper reports the results of a detailed preliminary techno-economic analysis of producing power from MPB killed wood. Power plant size and location are critical factors affecting overall power cost. Overall cost of power rises steeply at sizes below 300MW net power output. By locating the power plant in an area of high infestation, transportation distances can be minimized. A 300MW power plant would consume 64millionm3 of wood over a 20-year lifetime, and hence is a significant sink for otherwise unharvestable wood. Cost estimates are based on harvesting of whole dead trees with roadside chipping and transport to a central power plant located in either the Nazko or Quesnel regions of BC. A circulating fluidized bed boiler with a conventional steam cycle is a currently available technology demonstrated at 240MW in Finland. The estimated power cost is $68 to $74 per MWh, which is competitive with other “green power” values in BC. Given recent values of export power in the Pacific Northwest, a 300MW MPB power plant is viable with a carbon credit below $15 per tons of CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Quebec Waste Management Policy (1998-2008) is requesting that the municipalities prepare a waste management plan, including a global objective of 60% of these wastes to be diverted from landfill sites by reduction, re-usage, recycling and valorization. Around 5.8 million tons of wastes were generated on the territory of the Montreal Metropolitan Community in 2001 for a population of about 3.5 millions citizens. In this paper, we present different management scenarios in which anaerobic digestion was used as a valorization step, focusing on the energetic value of the methane produced and the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The four scenarios prepared cover the valorization of the organic fraction of municipal solid wastes, green wastes and excess sludge and showed potential methane generation of 17-140Mm³ with a GHG reduction of 62,000-500,000 tons of CO2-equivalents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The building sector is a significant source of GHG emissions and has great potential for emission reductions. The effectiveness of building energy codes on energy savings and emission mitigation is of a primary concern to policy makers, but uncertainty in cost and benefit in different regions complicates code selection and implementation. The impacts of a specific building energy standard vary depending on the heating system's thermal efficiency and the heating fuel's carbon intensity. This paper examines the GHG emissions due to space heating for new construction single-detached households in Canada under different building energy codes and enforcement scenarios. The two codes considered are the BC step code and Passive House criteria. Three scenarios are examined reflecting different levels of stringency of standards between 2020 and 2032. The results show both BC step code and passive house criteria can help mitigate the space heating GHG emissions. There is no significant difference between the BC step code and the passive house criteria from the perspective of GHG emission reduction in the province of British Columbia; however, when implemented nationwide, the passive house criteria is 12% more effective in abating space heating GHG emissions than the most stringent level (i.e. Step 5) of BC step code. • Passive House criteria are more effective in reducing the space heating GHG emissions than BC Step Code does in Canada. • BC Step Code and Passive House criteria can save space heating GHG emissions of new single-houses by 77% and 89%, respectively. • Building performance standards are less impactful in regions where fuel carbon intensity is low. • No notable difference is found between BC Step Code and Passive House criteria in GHG emission reduction per unit area in BC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A Multi-Dimensional Hypothetical Fuzzy Risk Simulation model is developed. • Decision-makers' preference is reflected to develop the optimized policies. • Multi-dimensional risks in 2030 of various policy options are revealed. • A special case study of the Province of Saskatchewan, Canada, is conducted. • Hypothetical Extraction Method is used to estimate the comprehensive performances. Changing climate is one of the most challenging environment issues worldwide. The objective of this paper is to develop a Multi-Dimensional Hypothetical Fuzzy Risk Simulation Model to facilitate the Greenhouse Gases mitigation policy development and multi-dimensional risk simulation. In detail, the comprehensive performances of various industries are evaluated and analyzed through Hypothetical Extraction Method. The preferences of decision-makers are considered through Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarities to Ideal Solution method to develop the optimized Greenhouse Gases mitigation policies. The multi-dimensional risks of optimized Greenhouse Gases mitigation policies are simulated through RAS method. A detailed case study of the Province of Saskatchewan, Canada, is conducted to illustrate the potential benefits of the proposed model and support the Greenhouse Gases mitigation policy development. It is found that Electric power generation, transmission and distribution sector is the key industry in Saskatchewan. The government supports are suggested to be allocated to the Electric power generation, transmission and distribution sector, since it will benefit the province from environmental, economic, and urban metabolic perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The industrial sector, accounting for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is among the key drivers of human-induced climate change impacts. Given this volume of emissions, the sector could play a critical role in mitigating climate change. Canada is among the top 10 global GHG emitters and its industrial sector is responsible for more than 39% of national emissions. GHG emissions from the sector increased by almost 32% between 1990 and 2017 and are expected to almost double by 2050 if no measures are taken. This paper aims to evaluate how different technical and economic factors have contributed to the increasing GHG emission trends in Canada's industrial sector between 1990 and 2014. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index was developed and implemented as the decomposition method. Results from the analysis suggest that activity level is the biggest contributor to the increase in industrial GHG emissions between 1990 and 2014, which ranged from 5 Mt CO 2 eq in 1994 to 57 Mt CO 2 eq in 2014 compared to the 1990 baseline. Increased shares of low carbon-intensive industries and fuel switching contribute to GHG emission mitigation from the sector. The structural change is responsible for GHG reductions of 1.1 and 23.4 Mt CO 2 eq in 2000 and 2014, respectively. The impacts from fuel mixs and increased shares of low-carbon fuel ranged from −1 Mt CO 2 eq in 1994 to 16 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011. Despite improvements in process-energy-intensity (i.e., the energy consumed per unit of product) in several industries, changes in economic energy intensity (energy consumed per unit of economic output) have resulted in increased GHG emissions. These changes are mainly driven by changes in the process-energy intensity of the oil sands mining sector, the largest contributor to industrial GHG emissions in Canada. Image 107490 • Historical GHG emissions trends from Canada's industrial sector were analyzed. • GHG emissions decomposition analysis was done for the years 1990–2014. • The impacts of driving factors on increasing GHG emission trends were examined. • Activity level was found to be the main driver of GHG emissions. • Fuel switching and electricity decarbonization mitigate industrial GHGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]