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The Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the past 2 decades. Understanding ice mass and glacier changes during the preceding several hundred years prior to geodetic measurements is more difficult because evidence of past ice extent in many places was later overridden. Salt marshes provide the only continuous records of relative sea level (RSL) from close to the Greenland Ice Sheet that span the period of time during and since the Little Ice Age (LIA) and can be used to reconstruct ice mass gain and loss over recent centuries. Salt marsh sediments collected at the mouth of Dronning Marie Dal, close to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin in southeastern Greenland, record RSL changes over the past ca. 300 years through changing sediment and diatom stratigraphy. These RSL changes record a combination of processes that are dominated by local and regional changes in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance during this critical period that spans the maximum of the LIA and 20th-century warming. In the early part of the record (1725–1762 CE) the rate of RSL rise is higher than reconstructed from the closest isolation basin at Timmiarmiut, but between 1762 and 1880 CE the RSL rate is within the error range of the rate of RSL change recorded in the isolation basin. RSL begins to slowly fall around 1880 CE, with a total amount of RSL fall of 0.09±0.1 m in the last 140 years. Modelled RSL, which takes into account contributions from post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), ongoing deglacial GIA, the global non-ice sheet glacial melt fingerprint, contributions from thermosteric effects, the Antarctic mass loss sea level fingerprint and terrestrial water storage, overpredicts the amount of RSL fall since the end of the LIA by at least 0.5 m. The GIA signal caused by post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss is by far the largest contributor to this modelled RSL, and error in its calculation has a large impact on RSL predictions at Dronning Marie Dal. We cannot reconcile the modelled RSL and the salt marsh observations, even when moving the termination of the LIA to 1700 CE and reducing the post-LIA Greenland mass loss signal by 30 %, and a "budget residual" of +∼3 mm yr -1 since the end of the LIA remains unexplained. This new RSL record backs up other studies that suggest that there are significant regional differences in the timing and magnitude of the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the climate shift from the LIA into the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers: Jakobshavn Isbræ, Kangerlussuaq Glacier, and Helheim Glacier. We use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations attached to bedrock to measure elastic displacements of the solid Earth caused by dynamic thinning near the glacier terminus. When we compare our results with discharge, we find a time lag between glacier speedup/slowdown and onset of dynamic thinning/thickening. Our results show that dynamic thinning/thickening on Jakobshavn Isbræ occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown. This implies that using GNSS time series we are able to predict speedup/slowdown of Jakobshavn Isbræ by up to 10.4 months. For Kangerlussuaq Glacier the lag between thinning/thickening and speedup/slowdown is 0.37 ± 0.17 years (4.4 months). Our methodology and results could be important for studies that attempt to model and understand mechanisms controlling short‐term dynamic fluctuations of outlet glaciers in Greenland. Plain Language Summary: A wide range of sensors and methods have been used to study the changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, including satellite gravimetry, altimetry, and the input‐output method. Here, we present a novel fourth method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers: Jakobshavn Isbræ, Kangerlussuaq Glacier, and Helheim Glacier. We use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations attached to bedrock to measure rise of land masses caused by ongoing ice mass loss near the glacier terminus. When we compare our results with ice discharge, we find a time lag between glacier speedup/slowdown and onset of dynamic induced thinning/thickening. Our results show that dynamic thinning/thickening on Jakobshavn Isbræ occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown. This implies that using GNSS uplift time series we are able to predict ice flow speedup/slowdown of Jakobshavn Isbræ by up to 10 months. For Kangerlussuaq Glacier and Helheim Glacier the lag between thinning/thickening and speedup/slowdown is 0.37 ± 0.17 years (4.4 months) and 0.03 ± 0.16 years, respectively. Our methodology and results could be important for studies that attempt to model and understand mechanisms controlling short‐term dynamic fluctuations of outlet glaciers in Greenland. Key Points: A novel method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn, Kangerlussuaq, and Helheim glacierDynamic thinning/thickening occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown at Jakobshavn IsbræA similar time lag between change in uplift rate and flow speed change allows us to predict future ice discharge from past uplift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date the final stage in deglaciation of the Greenland shelf, when a contiguous ice sheet margin on the inner shelf transitioned to outlet glaciers in troughs with intervening ice-free areas, we generated cosmogenic 10 Be dates from bedrock knobs on six outlying islands along a stretch of 300 km of the southwestern Greenland coast. Despite 10 Be inheritance influencing some dates, the ages generally support a Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) margin that retreated off the inner shelf during the middle Younger Dryas (YD) period. Published 10 Be- and 14 C-dated records show that this history of the GrIS margin is seen in other parts of Greenland but with large variations in the extent and speed of retreat, sometimes even between neighbouring areas. Areas with a chronology extending into the Allerød period show no marked ice margin change at the Allerød–YD transition except in northernmost Greenland. In contrast, landforms on the shelf (moraines and grounding zone wedges) have been suggested to indicate YD readvances or long-lasting ice margin stillstands on the middle shelf. However, these features have been dated primarily by correlation with cold periods in the ice core temperature records. Ice margin retreat during the middle and late YD is explained by advection of warm subsurface water at the ice margin and by increased seasonality. Our results therefore point to the complexity of the climate–ice margin relation and to the urgent need for direct dating of the early deglaciation history of Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased over the past 2 decades. Marine-terminating glaciers contribute significantly to this mass loss due to increased melting and ice discharge. Periods of rapid retreat of these tidewater glaciers have been linked to the concurrent inflow of warm Atlantic-sourced waters. However, little is known about the variability of these Atlantic-derived waters within the fjords, due to a lack of multi-annual in situ measurements. Thus, to better understand the potential role of ocean warming on glacier retreat, reconstructions that characterize the variability of Atlantic water inflow to the fjords are required. Here, we investigate foraminiferal assemblages in a sediment core from Upernavik Fjord, West Greenland, in which the major ice stream Upernavik Isstrøm terminates. We conclude that the foraminiferal assemblage is predominantly controlled by changes in bottom water composition and provide a reconstruction of Atlantic water inflow to Upernavik Fjord, spanning the period 1925–2012. This reconstruction reveals peak Atlantic water influx during the 1930s and again after 2000, a pattern that is comparable to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The comparison of these results to historical observations of front positions of Upernavik Isstrøm reveals that inflow of warm Atlantic-derived waters likely contributed to high retreat rates in the 1930s and after 2000. However, moderate retreat rates of Upernavik Isstrøm also prevailed in the 1960s and 1970s, showing that glacier retreat continued despite a reduced Atlantic water inflow, albeit at a lower rate. Considering the link between bottom water variability and the AMO in Upernavik Fjord, and the fact that a persistent negative phase of the AMO is expected for the next decade, Atlantic water inflow into the fjord may decrease in the coming decade, potentially minimizing or stabilizing the retreat of Upernavik Isstrøm during this time interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Northern Hemisphere, an insolation driven Early to Middle Holocene Thermal Maximum was followed by a Neoglacial cooling that culminated during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here, we review the glacier response to this Neoglacial cooling in Greenland. Changes in the ice margins of outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet as well as local glaciers and ice caps are synthesized Greenland-wide. In addition, we compare temperature reconstructions from ice cores, elevation changes of the ice sheet across Greenland and oceanographic reconstructions from marine sediment cores over the past 5,000 years. The data are derived from a comprehensive review of the literature supplemented with unpublished reports. Our review provides a synthesis of the sensitivity of the Greenland ice margins and their variability, which is critical to understanding how Neoglacial glacier activity was interrupted by the current anthropogenic warming. We have reconstructed three distinct periods of glacier expansion from our compilation: two older Neoglacial advances at 2,500 – 1,700 yrs. BP (Before Present = 1950 CE, Common Era) and 1,250 – 950 yrs. BP; followed by a general advance during the younger Neoglacial between 700-50 yrs. BP, which represents the LIA. There is still insufficient data to outline the detailed spatio-temporal relationships between these periods of glacier expansion. Many glaciers advanced early in the Neoglacial and persisted in close proximity to their present-day position until the end of the LIA. Thus, the LIA response to Northern Hemisphere cooling must be seen within the wider context of the entire Neoglacial period of the past 5,000 years. Ice expansion appears to be closely linked to changes in ice sheet elevation, accumulation, and temperature as well as surface-water cooling in the surrounding oceans. At least for the two youngest Neoglacial advances, volcanic forcing triggering a sea-ice /ocean feedback, could explain their initiation. There are probably several LIA glacier fluctuations since the first culmination close to 1250 CE (Common Era) and available data suggests ice culminations in the 1400s, early to mid-1700s and early to mid-1800s CE. The last LIA maxima lasted until the present deglaciation commenced around 50 yrs. BP (1900 CE). The constraints provided here on the timing and magnitude of LIA glacier fluctuations delivers a more realistic background validation for modelling future ice sheet stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario. The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise and understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improved projections. Here the authors show Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers will likely exceed current worst-case scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the long-term difference in the response times of ice sheets, peripheral ice caps and glaciers may provide information about their respective sensitivities to climate change. However, there are only a few places where the history of local glaciers, ice caps (GICs) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) have been recorded in the same area. In this study, we use proglacial threshold lake records from four sites around Sermilik Fjord, in southeast Greenland to determine the Holocene ice marginal variations. Combined with other published records from the area, we find that the GrIS margin receded to within its present extent in the Early Holocene ~9.6 cal ka BP, probably reaching its minimum extent by ~7.3 to 6.3 cal ka BP before readvancing to its maximum Late Holocene position between ~2.6 and 0.3 cal ka BP. The GICs began to retreat ~9.5 cal ka BP and completely melted away for an extended period between ~8 and 4 ka during the Middle Holocene. Regrowth of the GICs began during the early- and late Neoglacial and they reached their maximum extent between ~1.2 and 0.7 cal ka BP. In general, we find a coherent pattern of ice marginal variations between the GrIS and GICs, which coincides with the major Holocene climate changes. However, our results also demonstrate that there are differences in the synchronicity between individual records, which largely are dictated by the local topography that determines when ice marginal changes were recorded in proglacial lakes. Accordingly, this study illustrates both the advantages and limitations of the method and highlight the need for multiple proglacial lake records to constrain past glacier variations in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To put recent Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) ice loss into a longer-term context, we must understand its behavior during late-glacial and Early Holocene warming. Previous results seem to suggest that there is a large contrast in the timing of deglaciation between South and Southeast Greenland. However, because of lack of available data, in particular in Southeast Greenland, it is difficult to assess how the ice sheet responded to major late-glacial and Early Holocene climate changes. In this study, we use 41 new 10Be ages to constrain the deglaciation chronology in 12 new locations from the coast to the present ice margin in South and Southeast Greenland. We find that South Greenland (south of 61.5°N) deglaciated between ∼14.8 and 11.9 ka, whereas Southeast Greenland (61.5°N to 68.2°N) deglaciated between ∼11.4 and 11.3 ka. The deglaciation of the coastal, low-intermediate topography in South Greenland coincides with increased air surface temperatures during the Bølling-Allerød with fjords continuing to deglaciate into the Early Holocene. In contrast, the ice sheet persisted at the coast until the late-glacial and Early Holocene in Southeast Greenland, likely because of increased precipitation in the high alpine topography and fjord geometry and bathymetry (e.g. width of fjords and presence of sills). This multi-phased deglaciation demonstrates a contrasting response of the southern GrIS to changes in climate and variations in topographic setting, and that the spatial deglaciation of the GrIS was complex and likely did not respond to a single external climate forcing. • Deglaciation began in South Greenland by 14.8 ka coeval with rising air temperature. • Warm Atlantic water likely drove deglaciation during the Younger Dryas. • Ice retreated from Southeast Greenland coast by 11.3 ka when air temperatures rose. • Evidence of a Neoglacial advance occurs in Southeast Greenland by ∼1.9 ka. • Local climate, topography and fjord geometry/bathymetry likely mediated ice retreat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge about the future response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to global climate change, including ice sheet contributions to sea level rise, is important for understanding the impact of climate change on society. Such studies rely in ice sheet model predictions and improved chronological constraints of past ice sheet extents and paleoclimatic trends. Many regions in Greenland are well studied, but northwest Greenland and especially Melville Bay, being one of the most important regions in terms of dynamical ice mass loss, lack a firm chronology of Holocene ice marginal fluctuations. In this study, we present the first comprehensive chronology for Melville Bay spanning 73.1–75.7°N based on 36 new 10Be exposure ages of boulders and 39 new radiocarbon ages of marine molluscs in Little Ice Age moraines. From weighted mean 10Be exposure ages, excluding 6 outliers, we find that the outer coast in Melville Bay was deglaciated ∼11.6 ± 0.3 ka (n = 15) and the ice margin reached its present-day position 40 km farther inland ∼11.5 ± 0.3 ka (n = 15). Our results suggest an interval of rapid ice-marginal retreat (i.e. collapse) of the northwest GrIS in Melville Bay, most likely triggered by rapidly rising atmospheric temperatures in early Holocene. Additionally, combining the comprehensive dataset of new radiocarbon ages with 26 radiocarbon ages from previous studies shows a restricted ice sheet extent from 9.1 ± 0.2 to 0.4 ± 0.1 cal ka BP, which coincides with increased sea surface temperatures. Our results highlight past ice sheet sensitivity towards climate changes in one of the least explored and most vulnerable regions of Greenland. Furthermore, comparing our new results to already existing ice sheet models (Huy3 and Huy3b) emphasize the proximal relevance of the Agassiz ice core temperature reconstruction for Melville Bay, which indicates the possible sensitivity of the ice sheet to a warming climate and place improved constraints on ice sheet simulations. • The northwest Greenland Ice Sheet was very sensitive to past climate changes. • The marine-based part of the ice sheet collapsed in Early Holocene. • The ice sheet was smaller than present throughout middle and late Holocene. • Rising atmospheric and sea surface temperatures drove deglaciation. • Ice sheet models do not fully capture this behaviour and improvements are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]