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The Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the past 2 decades. Understanding ice mass and glacier changes during the preceding several hundred years prior to geodetic measurements is more difficult because evidence of past ice extent in many places was later overridden. Salt marshes provide the only continuous records of relative sea level (RSL) from close to the Greenland Ice Sheet that span the period of time during and since the Little Ice Age (LIA) and can be used to reconstruct ice mass gain and loss over recent centuries. Salt marsh sediments collected at the mouth of Dronning Marie Dal, close to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin in southeastern Greenland, record RSL changes over the past ca. 300 years through changing sediment and diatom stratigraphy. These RSL changes record a combination of processes that are dominated by local and regional changes in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance during this critical period that spans the maximum of the LIA and 20th-century warming. In the early part of the record (1725–1762 CE) the rate of RSL rise is higher than reconstructed from the closest isolation basin at Timmiarmiut, but between 1762 and 1880 CE the RSL rate is within the error range of the rate of RSL change recorded in the isolation basin. RSL begins to slowly fall around 1880 CE, with a total amount of RSL fall of 0.09±0.1 m in the last 140 years. Modelled RSL, which takes into account contributions from post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), ongoing deglacial GIA, the global non-ice sheet glacial melt fingerprint, contributions from thermosteric effects, the Antarctic mass loss sea level fingerprint and terrestrial water storage, overpredicts the amount of RSL fall since the end of the LIA by at least 0.5 m. The GIA signal caused by post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss is by far the largest contributor to this modelled RSL, and error in its calculation has a large impact on RSL predictions at Dronning Marie Dal. We cannot reconcile the modelled RSL and the salt marsh observations, even when moving the termination of the LIA to 1700 CE and reducing the post-LIA Greenland mass loss signal by 30 %, and a "budget residual" of +∼3 mm yr -1 since the end of the LIA remains unexplained. This new RSL record backs up other studies that suggest that there are significant regional differences in the timing and magnitude of the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the climate shift from the LIA into the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers: Jakobshavn Isbræ, Kangerlussuaq Glacier, and Helheim Glacier. We use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations attached to bedrock to measure elastic displacements of the solid Earth caused by dynamic thinning near the glacier terminus. When we compare our results with discharge, we find a time lag between glacier speedup/slowdown and onset of dynamic thinning/thickening. Our results show that dynamic thinning/thickening on Jakobshavn Isbræ occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown. This implies that using GNSS time series we are able to predict speedup/slowdown of Jakobshavn Isbræ by up to 10.4 months. For Kangerlussuaq Glacier the lag between thinning/thickening and speedup/slowdown is 0.37 ± 0.17 years (4.4 months). Our methodology and results could be important for studies that attempt to model and understand mechanisms controlling short‐term dynamic fluctuations of outlet glaciers in Greenland. Plain Language Summary: A wide range of sensors and methods have been used to study the changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, including satellite gravimetry, altimetry, and the input‐output method. Here, we present a novel fourth method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers: Jakobshavn Isbræ, Kangerlussuaq Glacier, and Helheim Glacier. We use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations attached to bedrock to measure rise of land masses caused by ongoing ice mass loss near the glacier terminus. When we compare our results with ice discharge, we find a time lag between glacier speedup/slowdown and onset of dynamic induced thinning/thickening. Our results show that dynamic thinning/thickening on Jakobshavn Isbræ occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown. This implies that using GNSS uplift time series we are able to predict ice flow speedup/slowdown of Jakobshavn Isbræ by up to 10 months. For Kangerlussuaq Glacier and Helheim Glacier the lag between thinning/thickening and speedup/slowdown is 0.37 ± 0.17 years (4.4 months) and 0.03 ± 0.16 years, respectively. Our methodology and results could be important for studies that attempt to model and understand mechanisms controlling short‐term dynamic fluctuations of outlet glaciers in Greenland. Key Points: A novel method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn, Kangerlussuaq, and Helheim glacierDynamic thinning/thickening occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown at Jakobshavn IsbræA similar time lag between change in uplift rate and flow speed change allows us to predict future ice discharge from past uplift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat transport via ocean currents can affect the melting of marine‐terminating glaciers in Greenland. Studying past changes of marine‐terminating glaciers allows assessing the regional sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to ocean temperature changes in the context of a warming ocean. Here, we present a high‐resolution multiproxy marine sediment core study from Skjoldungen Fjord, close to the marine‐terminating Thrym Glacier. Grain‐size data are obtained to reconstruct the calving activity of Thrym Glacier; sortable silt is used as a proxy for fjord water circulation, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are reconstructed from alkenone paleothermometry (Uk'37). Measurements of 210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C indicate that the core covers the past 220 years (1796–2013 CE). Comparisons with modeled SST data (Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST) and instrumental temperatures (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) suggest that the SST proxy record reflects temperature variability of the surface waters over the shelf and that alkenones are advected into the fjord. Additionally, average temperatures and the amplitude of fluctuations are influenced by alkenones advected from upstream the Irminger Current. We find that the SST record compares well with other alkenone‐based reconstructions from SE‐Greenland and thus features regional shelf water variability. The calving activity as well as the terminus position of Thrym Glacier did not seem to respond to the SST variability. Limited ice‐ocean interactions owing to the specific setting of the glacier would explain this. Instead, the fjord circulation may have been influenced by enhanced meltwater production as well as to larger scale changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Key Points: Alkenone‐based sea surface temperature reconstructions reveal common SE‐Greenland shelf variability during the 20th centuryIncreasing ocean temperature did not result in a retreat of Thrym GlacierSortable silt parameters indicate that fjord water column flow is influenced by increased meltwater release and/or shelf water circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased over the past 2 decades. Marine-terminating glaciers contribute significantly to this mass loss due to increased melting and ice discharge. Periods of rapid retreat of these tidewater glaciers have been linked to the concurrent inflow of warm Atlantic-sourced waters. However, little is known about the variability of these Atlantic-derived waters within the fjords, due to a lack of multi-annual in situ measurements. Thus, to better understand the potential role of ocean warming on glacier retreat, reconstructions that characterize the variability of Atlantic water inflow to the fjords are required. Here, we investigate foraminiferal assemblages in a sediment core from Upernavik Fjord, West Greenland, in which the major ice stream Upernavik Isstrøm terminates. We conclude that the foraminiferal assemblage is predominantly controlled by changes in bottom water composition and provide a reconstruction of Atlantic water inflow to Upernavik Fjord, spanning the period 1925–2012. This reconstruction reveals peak Atlantic water influx during the 1930s and again after 2000, a pattern that is comparable to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The comparison of these results to historical observations of front positions of Upernavik Isstrøm reveals that inflow of warm Atlantic-derived waters likely contributed to high retreat rates in the 1930s and after 2000. However, moderate retreat rates of Upernavik Isstrøm also prevailed in the 1960s and 1970s, showing that glacier retreat continued despite a reduced Atlantic water inflow, albeit at a lower rate. Considering the link between bottom water variability and the AMO in Upernavik Fjord, and the fact that a persistent negative phase of the AMO is expected for the next decade, Atlantic water inflow into the fjord may decrease in the coming decade, potentially minimizing or stabilizing the retreat of Upernavik Isstrøm during this time interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Northern Hemisphere, an insolation driven Early to Middle Holocene Thermal Maximum was followed by a Neoglacial cooling that culminated during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here, we review the glacier response to this Neoglacial cooling in Greenland. Changes in the ice margins of outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet as well as local glaciers and ice caps are synthesized Greenland-wide. In addition, we compare temperature reconstructions from ice cores, elevation changes of the ice sheet across Greenland and oceanographic reconstructions from marine sediment cores over the past 5,000 years. The data are derived from a comprehensive review of the literature supplemented with unpublished reports. Our review provides a synthesis of the sensitivity of the Greenland ice margins and their variability, which is critical to understanding how Neoglacial glacier activity was interrupted by the current anthropogenic warming. We have reconstructed three distinct periods of glacier expansion from our compilation: two older Neoglacial advances at 2,500 – 1,700 yrs. BP (Before Present = 1950 CE, Common Era) and 1,250 – 950 yrs. BP; followed by a general advance during the younger Neoglacial between 700-50 yrs. BP, which represents the LIA. There is still insufficient data to outline the detailed spatio-temporal relationships between these periods of glacier expansion. Many glaciers advanced early in the Neoglacial and persisted in close proximity to their present-day position until the end of the LIA. Thus, the LIA response to Northern Hemisphere cooling must be seen within the wider context of the entire Neoglacial period of the past 5,000 years. Ice expansion appears to be closely linked to changes in ice sheet elevation, accumulation, and temperature as well as surface-water cooling in the surrounding oceans. At least for the two youngest Neoglacial advances, volcanic forcing triggering a sea-ice /ocean feedback, could explain their initiation. There are probably several LIA glacier fluctuations since the first culmination close to 1250 CE (Common Era) and available data suggests ice culminations in the 1400s, early to mid-1700s and early to mid-1800s CE. The last LIA maxima lasted until the present deglaciation commenced around 50 yrs. BP (1900 CE). The constraints provided here on the timing and magnitude of LIA glacier fluctuations delivers a more realistic background validation for modelling future ice sheet stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario. The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise and understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improved projections. Here the authors show Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers will likely exceed current worst-case scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the long-term difference in the response times of ice sheets, peripheral ice caps and glaciers may provide information about their respective sensitivities to climate change. However, there are only a few places where the history of local glaciers, ice caps (GICs) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) have been recorded in the same area. In this study, we use proglacial threshold lake records from four sites around Sermilik Fjord, in southeast Greenland to determine the Holocene ice marginal variations. Combined with other published records from the area, we find that the GrIS margin receded to within its present extent in the Early Holocene ~9.6 cal ka BP, probably reaching its minimum extent by ~7.3 to 6.3 cal ka BP before readvancing to its maximum Late Holocene position between ~2.6 and 0.3 cal ka BP. The GICs began to retreat ~9.5 cal ka BP and completely melted away for an extended period between ~8 and 4 ka during the Middle Holocene. Regrowth of the GICs began during the early- and late Neoglacial and they reached their maximum extent between ~1.2 and 0.7 cal ka BP. In general, we find a coherent pattern of ice marginal variations between the GrIS and GICs, which coincides with the major Holocene climate changes. However, our results also demonstrate that there are differences in the synchronicity between individual records, which largely are dictated by the local topography that determines when ice marginal changes were recorded in proglacial lakes. Accordingly, this study illustrates both the advantages and limitations of the method and highlight the need for multiple proglacial lake records to constrain past glacier variations in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]