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The Greenland Ice Sheet’s contribution to global sea-level rise is accelerating1 due to increased melting of its bare-ice ablation zone2–6, but there is growing evidence that climate models overestimate runoff from this critical area of the ice sheet7–12. Current climate models assume all bare ice runoff escapes to the ocean, unlike snow covered areas where some fraction of runoff is retained and/or refrozen in porous firn13–15. Here we use in situ measurements and numerical modeling to reveal extensive retention and refreezing of liquid meltwater in bare glacial ice, explaining chronic runoff overestimation by climate models. From 2009–2018, refreezing of liquid meltwater in bare, porous glacial ice reduced meltwater runoff by 11–23 Gt a-1 in southwest Greenland alone, equivalent to 10–20% of annual meltwater production. This mass retention is commensurate with current estimates of climate model ice sheet meltwater runoff uncertainty, and may represent an overlooked buffer on projected runoff increases for the coming century16. Inclusion of bare-ice retention and refreezing processes in climate models therefore has immediate potential to improve forecasts of ice sheet runoff and its contribution to global sea-level rise.

Concurrent ice sheet surface runoff and proglacial discharge monitoring are essential for understanding Greenland ice sheet meltwater release. We use an updated, well-constrained river discharge time series from the Watson River in southwest Greenland, with an accurate, observation-based ice sheet surface mass balance model of the ∼ 12 000 km2 ice sheet area feeding the river. For the 2006–2015 decade, we find a large range of a factor of 3 in interannual variability in discharge. The amount of discharge is amplified ∼ 56 % by the ice sheet's hypsometry, i.e., area increase with elevation. A good match between river discharge and ice sheet surface meltwater production is found after introducing elevation-dependent transit delays that moderate diurnal variability in meltwater release by a factor of 10–20. The routing lag time increases with ice sheet elevation and attains values in excess of 1 week for the upper reaches of the runoff area at ∼ 1800 m above sea level. These multi-day routing delays ensure that the highest proglacial discharge levels and thus overbank flooding events are more likely to occur after multi-day melt episodes. Finally, for the Watson River ice sheet catchment, we find no evidence of meltwater storage in or release from the en- and subglacial environments in quantities exceeding our methodological uncertainty, based on the good match between ice sheet runoff and proglacial discharge.

Greenland’s snowline exhibits large fluctuations and is a primary amplifier of ice sheet surface melt and runoff., Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss has recently increased because of enhanced surface melt and runoff. Since melt is critically modulated by surface albedo, understanding the processes and feedbacks that alter albedo is a prerequisite for accurately forecasting mass loss. Using satellite imagery, we demonstrate the importance of Greenland’s seasonally fluctuating snowline, which reduces ice sheet albedo and enhances melt by exposing dark bare ice. From 2001 to 2017, this process drove 53% of net shortwave radiation variability in the ablation zone and amplified ice sheet melt five times more than hydrological and biological processes that darken bare ice itself. In a warmer climate, snowline fluctuations will exert an even greater control on melt due to flatter ice sheet topography at higher elevations. Current climate models, however, inaccurately predict snowline elevations during high melt years, portending an unforeseen uncertainty in forecasts of Greenland’s runoff contribution to global sea level rise.

Extensive, complex supraglacial river networks form on the southwest Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface each melt season. These networks are the dominant pathways for surface meltwater transport on this part of the ice sheet, but their fluvial morphometry has received little study. This paper utilizes high-resolution (2 m) WorldView-1/2 images, digital elevation models, and GIS tools to present a detailed morphometric characterization (river number, river length, Strahler stream order, width, depth, bifurcation ratio, braiding index, drainage density, slope, and relief ratio) for 523 GrIS supraglacial river networks. A new algorithm is presented to determine Strahler stream order in supraglacial environments. Results show that (1) Supraglacial river networks are broadly similar to terrestrial landscapes in that they follow Horton’s laws (river number, mean river length, and slope versus stream order), widen downstream, and have comparable mean bifurcation ratios (3.7 ± 1.9) and braiding indices; (2) unlik...

Significance Meltwater runoff is an important hydrological process operating on the Greenland ice sheet surface that is rarely studied directly. By combining satellite and drone remote sensing with continuous field measurements of discharge in a large supraglacial river, we obtained 72 h of runoff observations suitable for comparison with climate model predictions. The field observations quantify how a large, fluvial supraglacial catchment attenuates the magnitude and timing of runoff delivered to its terminal moulin and hence the bed. The data are used to calibrate classical fluvial hydrology equations to improve meltwater runoff models and to demonstrate that broad-scale surface water drainage patterns that form on the ice surface powerfully alter the timing, magnitude, and locations of meltwater penetrating into the ice sheet., Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

We document the density and hydrologic properties of bare, ablating ice in a mid-elevation (1215 m a.s.l.) supraglacial internally drained catchment near Kangerlussuaq, southwest Greenland. We find water saturated, low-density (474–725 kg m −3 , μ = 688 kg m −3 ) ice to at least 1.1 m depth below the ice sheet surface. This near surface, low-density ice consists of alternating fractured porous ice and clear solid ice lenses, overlain by a thin ( −3 , μ = 455 kg m −3 ) unsaturated weathering crust. Ice-density data from 10 shallow (0.9–1.1 m) ice cores along an 800 m transect suggest an average 15–22 cm of liquid meltwater storage within this low-density ice. Water saturation of this ice is confirmed through measurable water levels (1–29 cm, μ = 10 cm) in 84 % of cryoconite holes and rapid infilling of 83 % of 1 m drilled holes sampled along the transect. Though preliminary, these findings are consistent with descriptions of shallow, depth-limited aquifers in weathering crusts of temperate and polythermal glaciers worldwide, and confirm the potential for substantial transient meltwater storage within porous low-density ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet ablation zone surface. A conservative estimate for the ~ 63 km 2 catchment yields 0.010–0.014 km 3 of liquid meltwater storage in near-surface, low-density ice. Further work is required to determine whether these findings are representative of broader areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet ablation zone, and to assess the implications for sub-seasonal surface mass balance calculations, surface lowering observations from airborne and satellite altimetry, and supraglacial runoff processes.

Choice of watershed delineation technique is an important source of uncertainty for cryo-hydrologic studies of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), with different methods yielding different watersheds for a common pour point. First, this paper explores this uncertainty for the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River Northern Tributary, Western Greenland. Next, a standardized, semi-automated modeling framework for generating land-ice watersheds for GrIS land-terminating ice (henceforth referred to as CryoSheds) using geographic information systems (GIS) hydrologic modeling tools is presented. The framework uses ArcGIS and the ArcPy geoprocessing library to delineate two types of land-ice watersheds, namely those defined by: (1) a hydraulic pressure potential with varying water to ice overburden pressure ratios (k-value), which determines theoretical flow paths from the hydrostatic equation, using surface and bedrock digital elevation models (DEMs) and (2) a surface topography DEM alone. Lastly, a demonstration of the CryoSheds method is presented for seven remotely sensed proglacial pour points along the Aussivigssuit River (AR), Western Greenland, and its largest tributaries. GrIS meltwater runoff from these seven nested land-ice watersheds is estimated using Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR) v.3.2 and runoff uncertainties due to watershed delineation parameter selection is estimated.

Thermally incised meltwater channels that flow each summer across melt-prone surfaces of the Greenland ice sheet have received little direct study. We use high-resolution WorldView-1/2 satellite mapping and in situ measurements to characterize supraglacial water storage, drainage pattern, and discharge across 6,812 km(2) of southwest Greenland in July 2012, after a record melt event. Efficient surface drainage was routed through 523 high-order stream/river channel networks, all of which terminated in moulins before reaching the ice edge. Low surface water storage (3.6 ± 0.9 cm), negligible impoundment by supraglacial lakes or topographic depressions, and high discharge to moulins (2.54-2.81 cm⋅d(-1)) indicate that the surface drainage system conveyed its own storage volume every